Rudy Giuliani is taking this basic operating principle of American political debates to another level.

Hizzoner is debating the candidate he wants, not those who are on the stage with him.

In a Republican presidential candidate debate, televised on CNBC in the afternoon Wednesday and later rebroadcast on MSNBC, Giuliani continued to evoke the name of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Giuliani’s clear message to the audience: Are any of these guys on the stage with me so compelling, so Reaganesque, that you’d go with what you know in your heart would be their lesser chances in a general election?

Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, drew sustained applause from a Dearborn, Mich., audience when he quipped that if Clinton’s proposed health-care plans become policy reality, “Canadians will have no place to go to get their health care.”

Rudy knows the password to get into the Republican speakeasy and clink political cocktails with the conservatives. Just say “Hillary Clinton” to those suspicious eyes staring back at you through the peering slot and, presto, the door opens. The conservatives may have questions about Rudy, but they have their minds made up about Hillary.

Those lines about “Hillary care” and “Hillary bonds” and the insinuation that she’d even put her own face, the hated countenance, on U.S. legal tender, revs the Repubs.

  “Hillary’s filled with endless ways to spend,’ Giuliani said at one point in the debate.

The Republican debate was the first to feature Fred Thompson, the former U.S. senator from Tennessee.

“I enjoyed watching these fellows,” Thompson said. “I admit it was getting a little boring without me.”

Thompson, a familiar face from the movies and his role on “Law & Order,” came prepared for the economic issues. He’d done his homework and effectively blended statistics dropping, grand philosophical lines and front-porch-swing ease.

“We shouldn’t confuse the wealth of government with the wealth of nations,” Thompson said.

And here’s Thompson on Iraq: The United States can’t “leave with our tail between our legs.”

Thompson showed he belongs on the stage, so in a sense, the day was his.

The arrival of Thompson served mainly to hurt former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in this debate. Romney, who has what with a neutral eye can be called a substantial record of business and wealth accumulation experience on his resume, should be able to dominate the other Republican candidates in an economics debate.

Romney should have bottom-lined it: compare my net worth with the peasants running against me. We are talking capitalism here and the guy who can go Gordon Gecko should win, right?
What’s more, Romney was in Michigan, with a certain home field advantage as his father, George Romney, served as governor there.

Romney didn’t take ownership of this debate by effectively conveying the most obvious and powerful distinction: he’s the best businessman on the stage.

Romney did hold his own in a one-on-one with Giuliani about which perceived liberal Republican had the best record on taxes and spending in their respective geography, New York City and Massachusetts.

And Romney got off the best one-liners of the debate, book-ending the two-hour debate with them, in fact.

He blamed Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) for some of the state’s economic challenges.

“Frankly, I was a little nervous about coming here tonight,” Romney said. “I figured she was going to put a tax on the debate before we got finished.”

And he ripped Thompson near the end, saying the GOP debates were very much like “Law & Order.”

“It’s a big cast. It goes on forever, and Fred Thompson shows up at the end,” Romney said.

As for the other candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has hooked his economic thinking to the so-called FairTax. It worked in the Iowa GOP Straw Poll in August but came off as hick  gimmick here.

U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., acknowledged the snap of his one-time time rising elevator cable by joking that he was positioned in the “cheap seats” in the debate.

He did make some compelling observations about the economy.

“I think we are in the midst of a revolution we haven’t seen since the industrial revolution,” McCain said, referencing the number of people in the nation who make their incomes based on Internet-related activity.

U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, is one of those churchy types who just can’t cross over to the cocktail-and-croquet wing of his party. He comes across as far too corny to be presidential.

I mean, come on, he actually said of the United States of America: “This place rocks.”

Somebody should make Brownback spit out his gum before the next debate.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul, a thoughtful Republican-libertarian, said many things, but since this is Iowa Independent, we need only quote one line: “We can’t be bailing out farmers and subsidizing ethanol.”

And finally there is Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo.
Tancredo literally turned almost every question back on illegal immigration.

That movie “A Day Without a Mexican” is only a preview of the nation Tancredo would like to see, and his repeated references to this issue, his broken-record nasal speech on this, showed him to be one-trick pony we all know him to be.
]]> http://iowaindependent.com/1251/gop-debate-rudy-uses-hillary-as-password/feed 4 http://iowaindependent.com/1174/huckabee-shines-as-gop-forum-truants-devastate-2008-prospects http://iowaindependent.com/1174/huckabee-shines-as-gop-forum-truants-devastate-2008-prospects#comments Fri, 28 Sep 2007 03:47:49 +0000 Douglas Burns http://iowaindependent.com/1174/huckabee-shines-as-gop-forum-truants-devastate-2008-prospects The empty podiums spoke the loudest.

The Republican Junior Varsity All-American presidential forum tonight on PBS featured by far the most intriguing ideas and exchanges of any of the GOP or Democratic debate sessions to this point as the horserace element didn’t dominate the 90 minutes.

Who is the clear winner? Hard to say. Probably former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who cemented his reputation for genuineness (and the mettle for an away game). This is sort of obvious, as well. Huckabee was the only candidate on the stage with an outside chance of winning and as a result was the only Republican with anything at risk.

The runaway loser in the African-American and Hispanic centered forum is the Republican Party itself as four leading GOP White House contenders were no-shows. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were conspicuously absent from the debate – with empty podiums serving as exclamation points to this inexplicable dissing.

In fact, the first several minutes of the forum focused solely on these absences

Here’s Huckabee: “Frankly, I’m embarrassed. I’m embarrassed for our party.”

In many ways he seemed like some average American white guy apologizing to a black neighbor for an aunt’s racist joke at a barbecue.

Here’s U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan.: “I apologize for the candidates who aren’t here. What they’re doing is sending a message of narrowing the base.”

If any of the political truants get their party’s nomination – which is likely unless Newt Gingrich makes a late entry and sprint or Huckabee comes from the middle of the pack – the Democrats will have these opening moments to play over and over and over in TV and radio ads from Miami to Cleveland. Moreover, two of the leading voices in African-American media, Tavis Smiley and Tom Joyner, were hosts. Think they’re going to forget this? Or, let their millions of listeners and viewers forget?

Not only will these absences injure the Grand Old Republican Party in African-American and Hispanic communities, but they also will affect white independents, the latte-drinking, book club types who are self-absorbed to the point of voting based on self-identity. They don’t want to be identified with a party that is now sweating intolerance as if its members were huddled in a boiler room.

All of that said, this was the most interesting debate of the primary process so far because I heard things tonight that made me think, made me question some long-held beliefs – which is what the Big Four Republicans should have been in Baltimore at Morgan State University trying to do. One of the reasons I always loved to watch the Indiana Pacers’ Reggie Miller play is he stepped up his game before an away audience and earned their respect. That would be a big start for the GOP. Even George W. Bush is smart enough to get this.

As for the ideas, one that emerged was from Colorado Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo: instead of giving D.C. statehood, have Virginia annex half of the city and Maryland the other half.

Former ambassador Alan Keyes also noted that residents of D.C. who don’t like their lack of representation in Congress can move. Sort of harsh. But sort of right.

The most striking philosophical exchange involved Darfur. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, a libertarian-isolationist Republican, called for the United States to pull back its troops from all areas where there is not a national interest, which would mean, in his view, no boots on the ground in Africa. “Feel good” reasons are not enough for U.S. involvement. Writing off the desire to stop genocide as simply “feel good,” as if it were a decision to drop a few coins in the Salvation Army man’s basket outside the Hy-Vee in Carroll, Iowa, made Paul look more cold and calculating than any character Ayn Rand ever imagined.

“I couldn’t disagree more with that answer,” said Brownback, who has often said “a child in Darfur is as sacred as a child in the womb” in making his “pro-life” case.

And here’s Keyes.

“If somebody’s being hurt somewhere in the world, somebody in America grieves for them,” he said.

Keyes and Huckabee had a fascinating difference on a question of race, with Keyes, an African-American, downplaying race as a factor and Huckabee acknowledging it as a root cause with a force unusual from a Republican.

“I don’t believe there is this deep divide between blacks and whites,” Keyes said.

Not so, says Huckabee, who said a disparity in hiring often stems from outright racism, from employers looking at a black face and preferring the white one waiting for the next interview slot.

“That’s something government can’t change but leadership can certainly speak to,” Huckabee said.

A dynamic that struck me tonight is that true-believing evangelicals, which is a fair description of Huckabee, have a window of opportunity to reach black and Hispanic voters because these pols view race in Christian terms and can truly connect with this audience — and if nothing else show that their faith is stronger than the many cultural messages that make so many white people uncomfortable around minorities at best and ugly racists at worst.

Brownback, whose own immediate family is of mixed race, strikes me as someone who could make some inroads for his party as well as with minorities, not on the scale of a president but in day-to-day work in the Senate.

One of Brownback’s ideas for helping underprivileged areas is to allow for the creation of flat-tax zones he argues would give incentives to business development. There are clear problems with going that route in terms of moving to a regressive tax. Brownback also called for opening a National African-American Museum on the Washington Mall.

Huckabee showed real strength in the area of crime and the courts, noting the disproportionate number of minorities in the criminal justice system.

The nation, Huckabee said, doesn’t have a crime problem.

“We have a drug and alcohol problem,” he said.

He called for more drug treatment and less incarceration.

“We have to quit locking up all the people we’re mad at and lock up the people we’re afraid of,” Huckabee said.

Ron Paul went further.

“We need to repeal the whole war on drugs,” Paul said. “It isn’t working.”

U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona was the first Republican to qualify for the matching funds, although he has not yet accepted them.

At the end of June, Tancredo said in a filing with the FEC that his campaign had raised $2.8 million and had about $556,000 on hand. Campaign officials say the allocation will allow Tacredo to take out a $2.5 million bank loan and repay it when the federal funds arrive.

Tancredo, known mostly for his strong views on immigration, has registered at about 1 percent in Iowa polls and has acknowledged that any thing less than a third-place finish in the state will force him to drop out of the race.

As the cost of running a modern campaign in Iowa has grown, most candidates in both parties have eschewed federal matching funds because of rules related to receiving the aid. A candidate who receives matching funds can spend no more than $50 million during the campaign. To qualify for matching funds, candidates must raise at least $100,000 by collecting $5,000 in 20 different states, in amounts no greater than $250 from any individual.

The federal funds match donations made by individual contributors dollar-for-dollar up to the $250 maximum, according to the FEC.

Tancredo says he has raised $176,000 from more than 3,000 contributors in 25 states.

Through the second quarter, Tancredo was sixth in fundraising among Republican candidates. But in the money race he trails far behind Iowa frontrunner Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, who has raised $44 million, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has raised $35 million.

Most Republicans have spent the weeks since the Iowa Straw Poll traveling around the country raising funds. New financial disclosure reports will be filed at the end of the month. Tancredo will be in northwest Iowa this weekend, with meetings set for Sibley and the Clay County Fair in Spencer.

Iowans for LIFE (Life Is For Everyone) has joined a coalition of anti-abortion groups under the umbrella of the American Life League and, by joining, has signed a document in opposition to not only abortion but all contraceptives and in vitro fertilization.

… Human life is a miraculous gift from God. Moreover, it is the crowning gift to the loving union of man and woman. When barriers are put in place to block the gift of life and when the gift of life is controlled through science and technology, children easily become viewed as commodities, or material “things,” instead of gifts. Respect for human life is impossible without respect for conjugal union. Contraceptive acts and reproductive technologies that manipulate or replace conjugal union are a rejection of the gift of life – and most often include the foreseen deaths of tiny children.

Abortion will never end as long as society approves the use of contraception. The practice of contraception means children are unwanted and provides the rationalization for abortion. It is a violation of human dignity to promote or accept the use of contraception.

Artificial methods of reproduction (in vitro fertilization, “test tube” babies), likewise, are immoral because they involve the laboratory production and destruction of children. This is the same mentality that is used to rationalize destructive human embryo research, human cloning and the sacrifice of tiny children for research. It is a violation of human dignity to promote or accept the use of such technologies because they seek to manipulate and destroy the gift of life. …

Coalition members who have also agreed to the document range from the California Right to Life Committee to the New York City Catholic Resource for the Unborn Child.

As if that news isn’t chilling enough, recent statements and actions by Republican presidential hopefuls seem to have been geared to give voice for their approval.

Christina Page wrote an article in the Baltimore Sun and a post on Huffington Post documenting what she describes as “the quiet campaign against birth control.” The players are Iowa Republican front-runner Mitt Romney, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo.

She reports that Romney, while addressing the National Right to Life committee, said, “I fought to define life as beginning at contraception rather than at the time of implantation.” This, she says, sends a clear signal to the advocacy groups that the politician is willing to oppose the birth control pill and other contraceptives.

These words also mark a profound change of position. As governor of Massachusetts, Romney ordered Catholic hospitals to administer emergency contraception to women who claimed they had been raped.

Brownback has stated at Iowa events that he believes life “begins and should be protected from the moment of conception.”

As advocates for family planning look back a year ago to approval of over-the-counter emergency contraception, they should not forget what was said in opposition. At that time Brownback stated his disappointment with President George Bush for allowing access to Plan B.

“I am saddened at any step that increases the number of abortions and increases the loss of life,” he said to writer Amanda Carpenter of Human Events Publishing. “It is reckless to allow an overdose of a prescription drug to be offered over the counter.”

Tancredo went one step further: “The morning-after pill cheapens human life, and simply uses a woman’s body to dispose of the child instead of a doctor. It also puts them in harm’s way by making it more accessible, when studies have yet to be completed on its effect on young women.”

As Belle Taylor-McGhee of Pharmacy Access Partnership points out it does little good to attempt correction of the scientifically proven errors in both politicians’ statements. “Women’s reproductive health,” she writes, “continues to be mired in politics rather than addressed with responsible public policy solutions.”

GOP Congressmen Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter couldn’t buy a top-three finish at the Straw Poll, nor could they buy any R-E-S-P-E-C-T from Fox News.

Fox News also failed to mention their names in its online news story, yet they gave a nod to the three GOP candidates who weren’t even participating in the fund-raising event.Ironically, Fox’s 2008 presidential news coverage, “You Decide 2008,” has helped voters decide by deciding not to include all of the participating candidates in its fair and balanced reporting.

On the campaign trail in Iowa, a number of Ron Paul supporters have told me that their candidate has been ignored by the mainstream media – as reported in the Iowa Independent:

During Thursday’s campaign stop in Cedar Rapids, not everyone was interested in seeing former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the same reasons. While GOP supporters squeezed into the Spring House Family Restaurant, a group of Rep. Ron Paul faithfuls gathered across the street and held up signs proclaiming support for Paul and disgust with Giuliani. “We’re here to help get the word out on Ron Paul, because he’s not getting any of the media attention,” said Iowa City resident Pam Wagner.

I’ve also heard people contend that Paul supporters may be a little hypersensitive to the lack of national media campaign coverage and face time in the televised debates. While the latter claim can be substantiated with clock time, the former will be left to the viewers, pundits and media analysts as they surf the television, internet and traditional news media sources for bias and unbalanced coverage.

Meanwhile, it’s up to voters to develop their media literacy, while simultaneously holding the media accountable for its coverage and should always ask: “Is this report fair and balanced?”

That’s for You to decide.

First, in honor of that special Republican who might be leaving us come Sunday, let’s have a little straight talk. The Ames Straw Poll is the sparkly thong across the Iowa GOP’s gyrating buttocks. Above all else, the straw poll — much like politics today — is all about the money.

Most Iowans who travel to Ames this weekend will do so on a candidate’s dime. The participating Republican candidates rent the buses, buy the ballots, pay between $10,000 and $25,000 for tent space, arrange entertainment, provide food, shell out chum and, basically, do everything short of marking ballots for their supporters.

Historically, the Ames Straw Poll has had a significantly lower turnout than the real (and free) straw poll that happens on caucus night for the Republicans. Still, the one-third of regular caucus goers who come to Ames are the party’s loyalists. Ironically, it is that fact which makes this year’s fund-raiser even less of an indicator for the thoughts and opinions of Iowa Republicans in general.

For those of us concentrating on that finger in the air, a very important piece of information may be missing from the analysis of this year’s straw poll because of the absence of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona. While both candidates’ names will appear on the ballot, they made it clear some weeks ago that they would not be busing in participants or handing over sums of cash to the state party. Because of their decisions, it is doubtful we will have a clear picture of where participants stand on hot-button issues. When it comes to the divisive issue of abortion, for instance, there are really only two scenarios that would provide any insight.

If Giuliani somehow manages a first- or second-place finish, it will be safe to say that those who attended the straw poll did not base their support solely on divisive social issues. Giuliani’s differing stance on abortion — he believes the decision is not one which should be made by government — placed him far apart from the remaining field of candidates. Even Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who has been showered with online accolades for many of his positions on other issues, stands with the most ardent of anti-abortion activists. On these matters it is difficult to slide a hair between the stances of those participating Saturday.

On the flip side of the abortion coin we find Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. During the past few months Brownback has been pushing his pro-life/whole-life stance for all it is worth via robo-calls, mailers and personal appearances. His campaign has issued numerous press releases attacking Iowa front-runner Mitt Romney on abortion and his evolving stance on the issue. On Saturday, Brownback will be accompanied by Norma McCorvey, the original plaintiff in the landmark Roe v. Wade case who has since become adamantly pro-life.

Brownback is the obvious choice for those who want a 100 percent guarantee that abortion will remain at the top of the national conversation and on the top of the Republican ticket. If he ranks first or second in Ames on Saturday, a clear message will be sent that Iowa social conservatives believe this issue must play a significant role in the 2008 general election as well as the Iowa caucus.

While it is interesting to note that Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also have firm anti-abortion beliefs, a win for either one will not send the same message that a win would for Brownback. Because of the Brownback campaign’s continued pummeling of Romney and other candidates on this issue and because of Brownback’s campaigning with notable pro-life supporters, he alone can be viewed as the anti-abortion candidate in this race. In addition, his stagnant polling in Iowa only enhances the ability of a strong showing in Ames to catapult divisive social issues onto the national stage.

In as much as the negative campaign ads have solidified Brownback as the social conservative in the race, they have put Iowa front-runner Romney on sifting soil. He obviously believed at one point that women should have the right to choose whether or not to continue a pregnancy. Just as obviously, he is now wearing his pro-life credentials as a badge. Back-pedaling spinmeisters now say that Romney was actually anti-abortion all of his life, but played the part to win the governorship in Massachusetts, a state known for its liberal tendencies. That being the case, it is difficult to determine what a Romney win says about Iowa conservatives.

Should a Romney win be interpreted as forgiveness or ignorance of a past stance on the issues? Does it signal an end to the “gotcha” politics of labeling position changes as “flip-flopping”? Or, could it mean that Iowans supported Romney despite his problems within the abortion issue because they view him as the only viable candidate? Or, perhaps because he was the only candidate willing to give them a free ride to the event?

“Take a political convention and mix it with a tailgate party,” said Johnson County GOP activist Todd Versteegh of Saturday’s Iowa Republican straw poll at Iowa State’s Hilton Coliseum in Ames. “If you’re a political junkie, this is a prime event.”

It may also be the last chance to see some of the Republican presidential candidates. Since its inception in 1979, the straw poll has grown from a low-key fund-raiser to the de facto first round of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The day will see more losers than winners. What’s officially at stake for the candidates is no more than bragging rights. But the lack of something to brag about may be fatal. Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole and Dan Quayle all dropped out after poor showings in 1999, while Pat Buchanan left the Republican Party to take over the remnants of Ross Perot’s Reform Party. In contrast, only one candidate — Orrin Hatch — dropped out after the actual caucuses.

“After next Saturday, between three to four of the candidates are going to drop out,” said Versteegh. “If you don’t want to see somebody potentially drop out, go support them.”The Iowa GOP itself may be one of the losers. The straw poll remains first and foremost a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party. Republican Party of Iowa (RPI) Executive Director Chuck Laudner told Campaigns and Elections that the 1999 event took in $1 million. You have to show two things to vote in the straw poll: an Iowa ID and a ticket. Tickets are $35, up from $25 eight years ago. While some are sold to the public, the vast majority are purchased by the presidential campaigns and distributed to supporters, who are bused in for the event. The straw poll has become, in effect, a command performance for the GOP contenders and their wallets.

But the party’s hopes for 2007 took a hit early on when two top-tier contenders — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona — said no thanks to the game of buying tickets and bringing buses, bands and barbecue. This essentially conceded the win to contender Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts.

Romney is still playing for the win, but was able to scale back his efforts, which pinches the state party’s pocketbook at a time when it needs help. Last year was a tough one for Iowa Republicans, who lost two congressional seats, both houses of the Legislature, and failed to retake the governorship.

Still, the hype is in the air, and the state party is estimating a turnout of up to 40,000 people. The Hilton Coliseum venue holds only about 12,000 people, so supporters of the different candidates will be shuffled in and out between the speeches. To hear everyone speak, you need a premium “red ticket,” or a seat in front of one of the many TVs that’ll be outside the hall in the candidate tents, along with food and live entertainment.

Rumors have been floating that smaller campaigns have quietly told their supporters to take advantages of Romney’s largesse, ride his buses, and then vote for someone else. “We’ve heard those rumors, too,” said Romney spokeswoman Sarah Pompei, “but we’re focusing on having the strongest organization on the ground in Ames.” Joe Seehusen of the Ron Paul campaign said hitching a ride with another campaign is “not something we’re encouraging. We have many enthusiastic supporters who are doing a variety of things, but the campaign is not encouraging or endorsing that.”

For the first time, issue groups will join the candidates in the tent and ticket presence. Fair Tax is promoting a flat national sales tax as a replacement for the entire tax code and is trying to get commitments from the campaigns. Along with candidates, Fair Tax is touring the state by bus. “Huckabee was with us in Hampton,” said Versteegh, who works for the organization, “and Duncan Hunter was with us on a couple stops. Tancredo’s been talking about it in some detail.” The only candidate who has offered a flat-out no is Giuliani.

Fair Tax is positioning itself as a home for undecided voters and as a potential power broker. The group is offering bus rides to people who “don’t want to commit to a candidate or don’t know,” said Versteegh.

Handicapping the Horses

Ostensibly, the straw poll “matters” as a test of organizational skill.  It bears little resemblance to a real election, given the need to buy a ballot and having only one polling place in the state.  But it bears a superficial enough resemblance to the organizational skills needed on caucus night that it is seen as, in the words of Pompei, “a dress rehearsal.”  It’s a classic horse-race event in the self-amplifying media echo chamber: It matters because someone says it matters, and so on, and so on.

Horse races are fun and exciting, so let’s place our bets.

The candidates break into three tiers: Romney and the phantoms, the do-or-die second tier, and the candidates who’ll be unaffected by the outcome.

Back when college football factored margin of victory into its rankings, next-door rival Nebraska used to run up the score against Iowa State to margins like 77-13. But when point totals were taken out of the mix, the Cornhuskers started playing the second-, third- and fourth-string players earlier in the game.

That’s sort of what’s happened with the Romney campaign. “Mr. Romney’s pretty much bought the election,” said Roy Tyler of the Duncan Hunter campaign. With Romney leading in Iowa polls, and with his chief rivals out of town on Saturday, he doesn’t have to bring his A game. “A win is a win,” said Romney’s spokeswoman, avoiding any numbers when asked.  Pompei also declined to say just how many Romney buses would be arriving, though Johnson County supporters mentioned at least three from the Iowa City-Coralville area alone at a Monday central committee meeting.

Pompei was quick to note, however, that the phantom candidates are still on the ballot. “Rudy Giuliani’s been around the state campaigning like he’s in the straw poll, and buying radio ads,” she said. John McCain has also been in the state recently, but has had a low profile as the week progresses, perhaps waiting for the field to thin before coming back. Bob Anderson of rural Swisher hosted a McCain event at his home Sunday, and said he “will be back extensively during September.”  For now, McCain is in New Hampshire — where most Democratic candidates are spending the week.

Newt Gingrich’s American Solutions group will have a big presence in Ames, conducting workshops before and after the candidates speak. The organization is planning a “major announcement” Sept. 27, among much speculation that this may involve a Gingrich candidacy.

The former speaker of the House of Representatives is not on the ballot, and no write-ins are allowed. The Iowa Republicans have, however, called out another undeclared candidate coyly hovering on the edge of the race, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, and placed him on the ballot. This sets up a phantom contest played out entirely in the spin zone. A poor Fred Thompson showing may spur Gingrich on, but if the Tennessean does well Gingrich may defer.

Ames is do or die for three candidates: Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tommy Thompson.  The key rivalry here is Brownback vs. Huckabee. Both are appealing for the same social conservative niche, and there simply isn’t room for both of them to survive beyond Saturday. Sparks have been flying between the two camps for weeks.

Brownback has been more blatant in wooing  social conservatives, campaigning with Terri Schaivo’s brother and with “Jane Roe,” the Roe v. Wade plaintiff who has since converted to the anti-choice cause. Huckabee has presented a more-rounded campaign, emphasizing Fair Tax at many stops. Huckabee has been quoted as saying that a finish below fourth place would likely drive him from the race, and some national party leaders have tried to steer the former Arkansas governor toward a 2008 challenge to Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. But Huckabee supporter Royce Phillips of Tiffin is confident: “We’re going to do well Saturday.”

Tommy Thompson — adding to the confusion of a big field, there’s two Toms and two Thompsons — has been a constant presence in Iowa for months. The former governor of next-door Wisconsin has been Winnebago-ing his way through nearly every Iowa county and boldly predicting a strong showing. His survival could depend most on his showing against absent contenders Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson. Iowa City supporter John Dane reports that he’s driving himself up to Ames to back Tommy Thompson.

Some candidates are unlikely to see their fate affected by Ames. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo has already talked of refocusing his campaign toward primary challenges of Republican congressional incumbents whom he considers weak on illegal immigration. Still, Tancredo is joining most of the rest of the field in campaigning across Iowa this week.

Libertarian-Republican Ron Paul of Texas faces a test of whether he can translate his internet support into bodies on the ground in one place at one time. “Our internet efforts have had a positive fund-raising impact,” said spokesman Joe Seehusen. “That’s allowed us to embrace more traditional efforts in Iowa like direct mail and radio ads.” Paul has campaigned little in Iowa other than a high-profile rally in late June after he was excluded from a candidate forum. Yet this week he is making his first multi-day foray across Iowa.

Iowa blogger Noneed4theneed predicts a poor Paul showing:

The number of days Rep. Paul has campaigned dwarfs in comparison to every Republican candidate. To do well in Iowa you need to shake hands, lots of hands. Iowans don’t decide on who to support by what they hear on TV and fewer rely on the Internet, which is Paul’s strength. The strength of Internet support in Iowa is especially weak in rural areas, which are largely Republican. Iowans that live in rural counties value the opinions of their local paper and their neighbors, and many of these people have never visited a blog.

“We don’t expect to compete with other groups in terms of lavishness” in Ames, said Seehusen. “Dr. Paul, and his message of liberty and freedom, is the main event.” With his support largely indigestible by any other Republican candidate, the question for Paul after Ames may be whether he follows the Pat Buchanan precedent of leaving the party.

The Duncan Hunter campaign is staking little on the Ames outcome. Amid open speculation that he’s positioning himself for secretary of Defense in a Republican administration, the San Diego congressman may win the Orrin Hatch prize: in 1999 Hatch finished last but moved forward undeterred. “We have no big expectations, we’re just going to work hard and hope for the best,” said spokesman Roy Tyler of the Hunter campaign in a Wednesday interview. “The congressman’s 15 minutes of fame will be well spent.” The Hunter website has a “Buy A Ticket” link, suggesting that the lavishness may be lacking.

Every Republican cycle seems to include an obscure businessman who pledges businesslike government. This time it’s John Cox of Chicago. Cox has not been included in debates, and most national websites list him among the fringe candidates, but the Iowa GOP has always listed him with the “serious” candidates and is including him on the ballot.  Cox’s inclusion “was a decision between the Republican Party of Iowa and the state central committee, said Iowa Republican Party spokeswoman Mary Tiffany.  “He’s spent a lot of time here and come to a lot of party events.”  Cox cites his own conception, which was the result of rape, as the rationale for his absolute anti-abortion stance. Actively campaigning across Iowa, Cox has seemed far more serious than businessman candidate Morrie Taylor in 1996, who once famously won a tavern “straw” (as in drink stirrer) poll by buying a round for the house.

Not on the ballot is Alan Keyes. A surprisingly strong contender in 1996 and 2000, Keyes lost what credibility he had in a 2004 U.S. Senate race, moving from Maryland to Illinois to run and then losing 3-to-1 to some guy named Obama.  Nevertheless, Keyes will be in Ames plugging a Draft Keyes group — which he appears to have started himself.

Participants vary from ages 3 to 8. They have no prior knowledge of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s cleavage, former Sen. John Edward’s salon bills, or Gov. Mitt Romney’s make-up expenses. Questions about their racial backgrounds and socio-economic status were met with eye-rolling, blank stares and more than one request for pre-payment of promised lollipops. Their legal agents have all consented to allow participation so long as no photographs are taken and names are changed to protect the innocent.

Without benefit of party affiliation, statements on issues or even names, participants were shown photographs of the 2008 presidential candidates taken from either official websites or campaign literature and asked to share their thoughts on the person in the photo.

Six-year-old Tim rubbed his nose as he looked at the photograph of Republican hopeful Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. He looked and rubbed for several seconds before saying, “When my tie is too tight for church, my head turns red like that.”

“I don’t think his head is red,” said Bobby, age 8, looking over Tim’s shoulder at the photo. “I think he’s mad at somebody.”

Two more children — Audrey, age 7, and Carl, age 5 — rejoined our group after a quick shower in the splash pad when the photo of Illinois’ Democratic Sen. Barack Obama was placed on the table.

Carl’s hand shot up and he waited until called before quietly expressing his dismay: “His momma should have told him to wear sunscreen!” The four nodded solemnly in agreement at this remark that is, no doubt, more of a comment on their predominantly Caucasian surroundings than on Momma Obama’s possible neglect.

Beth, age 8, took only a brief glance at the photo of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton before lamenting the Democratic hopeful’s color choices. “When I grow up, I’m going to wear pink all the time,” she said. “And, if you are going to dress up, you should always wear earrings. Do you think she’s wearing high heels?”

“Papa!” said Jeremy, age 3, when showed a photo of Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Another Republican hopeful, Gov. Mitt Romney, should invest in a little hair color according to Emily, age 8, who said, “He looks like my first-grade teacher. I didn’t like him because the white hairs always made him look like we woke him up.”

Her hair advice extended to Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd whom she called “shocking” before staring even more closely at the photo. “I think he’s wearing a wig,” she said. “The hair on his head and the hair by his eyes are different colors.”

Tim, however, pulled the photos of Dodd, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, former Sen. John Edwards, Congressman Ron Paul and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in front of him and smiled. “They have sexy dimples — just like me,” he told the group.

Participants unanimously agreed that Sen. Joe Biden’s photo was “scary.”

“He looks like the principal at school when the lunchroom is too loud,” said Annie, age 7.

Tina, age 6, said she liked the look of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. “He looks like Santa — with a big tan,” she said.

After another short discussion on the benefits of sunscreen, a photo of former New York Gov. Rudy Giuliani was pushed to the top of the pile.

“Oh, my word!” exclaimed Audrey. “Harry Potter glasses!”

Excitement remained high until a detailed inspection of Giuliani’s photo produced no lightning bolt scar.

Notice was taken of Congressman Tom Tancredo’s eyes, and participants decided he “needed an earlier bedtime.”

“My mom has lotion for her eyes,” noted Bobby. “It stinks, but she likes it.”

Although other photos remained to be viewed, participants began to lose interest. With lollipop payments in hand, all but one ran off to swing sets, water fun, Iowa sunshine and carefree living.

Beth watched closely as the photos were neatly stacked and placed back into the bag. When her attention was mistaken for hope of additional payment she responded, “No, it isn’t that. Why was there only one girl?”

Sometimes all it takes is one thoughtful question to cut through all the nonsense.

While this rhetoric is raging among Republicans, Human Rights Watch has issued a report looking at the human cost of getting tough.The report says that since immigration law was toughened in 1996 to require mandatory deportation of legal immigrants convicted of a crime, even a minor one, 672,593 immigrants have been deported.  Human Rights Watch estimates that these deportations mean 1.6 million children and adults, including U.S. citizens and long-term lawful permanent residents, have been forcibly separated from their non-citizen family members.  Individual cases include a father of three U.S. citizen children convicted of breaking into a car and stealing a $10 bottle of eye drops from a drug store.

The 1996 law eliminated the discretion immigration judges once held in assessing penalties.  Rep. Jose Serrano, D-N.Y., has introduced a bill (HR 1176) that would allow immigration judges to consider the interests of U.S. citizen children during deportation hearings.  Human Rights Watch recommends stronger legislation that also considers legal presence and length of time in the U.S., evidence of rehabilitation, ties to the community, military service and lack of connection to the country of origin.  The group also favors limiting deportation to those convicted of violent crimes.  The report says that from 1997 to 2005, only 21 percent of deportees had been convicted of violent offenses.

NICHE is the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators, which acts as a clearinghouse for all things Christian home-school-related. The members, if not the organization itself, also act as a force in monitoring and shaping state and federal legislation concerning home education and intend to influence the outcome of the Iowa caucuses through their staunch support of a socially conservative candidate.

NICHE is “the only statewide organization in Iowa” for Christian home educators, NICHE board member Justin LaVan told Iowa Independent recently. Its mission is “to provide Christ-centered events, communication, and resources to better equip, inform and encourage Iowa home educators to the glory of God!” according to its website.

LaVan said the organization’s several thousand members want to instill in their children a specific value system. “They’re teaching principles of Christian education as opposed to secular education or as opposed to any type of education,” he said. “Education is not neutral.”

In public schools, he said, “a humanism perspective” is taught where “truth is relative.” He said NICHE members took issue with the idea that “we were created from just by happen chance and nature, [that] the whole universe is created by some kind of big bang.” In Christian education, LaVan said, “there is a creator; he created the universe and man in God’s image. There is a purpose beyond ourselves that we’re here for.”

LaVan, an attorney in Des Moines, volunteers his time as the organization’s legislative liaison to ensure that Christian educators are able to continue their work. He said NICHE monitors legislation in Iowa and in Washington, D.C. “We work on different legislative initiatives to lift some of the barriers to home education,” LaVan said. “There’s a lot of paperwork in Iowa that needs to be done. We’ve been trying to work through that with the Iowa legislature and the Department of Education in Iowa, and we’ve been rather successful.” NICHE members can sign up to receive e-mail alerts when relevant legislation comes up for debate, and though the website says, NICHE is “not a lobbying group,” it also says “Homeschooling families must remain diligently involved in local, state, and national government.”

One of NICHE’s primary activities is to sponsor an annual conference that hosts legal and religious experts as keynote speakers, along with up to 50 different workshops on home school projects, according to LaVan. “The conference is educationally related based on biblical home education teaching,” he said, and estimated that 2,000 to 3,000 people showed up at the 2007 conference. Half a dozen of those individuals deserve special mention—that’s because they’re running for president.

Hoping to court these influential socially conservative voters, many of the Republican contenders attended, including Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was represented by his Iowa chairman, Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent evangelical Christian, and California Congressman Duncan Hunter also had a representative, according to LaVan. He said the organization sent invitations to all the candidates to attend, though letting them know they would not be given the floor to speak but could lobby voters at their individual booths.

LaVan said NICHE would not endorse a candidate in the 2008 presidential election, but he has personally declared himself a supporter of Huckabee’s candidacy. The Home School Legal Defense Fund Association (HSLDA) has also endorsed Huckabee and encouraged home educators to support him. Michael Farris, chairman of the board and general counsel for HSLDA, was a keynote speaker at NICHE’s 2007 conference, though HSLDA has no official ties to NICHE, LaVan said.

LaVan said home-schoolers would play an active role in next year’s Iowa caucuses. “What I’ve found in the home school community is that the parents and the teenagers of home school families … are far more active and involved in presidential elections than you would see anywhere else,” he said. “I’ve seen a number of home school parents standing behind one candidate or another, and they get their families involved. It’s highly effective.”

Like Farris, LaVan said home-schooled teens would do much of the groundwork for a candidate. He mentioned a program called Generation Joshua, or Gen J, sponsored by HSLDA. “You get your teens and college-age students involved in politics, and they can get behind a socially conservative candidate and do what they can to support them,” such as making phone calls, going door knocking, or walking in parades, LaVan said. “They’ve been extremely effective. I know they’re actively coordinating things in Iowa. … I think it’s going to have a huge impact on the vote and what’s going on in Iowa. They have a proven track record.”