Eric Cooper, 43, of Ames, and Nick Weltha, 30, of Des Moines, will hold a press conference next week in Ames to formally announce their intention to seek the Libertarian Party’s 2010 nomination for governor and lieutenant governor.

Eric Cooper

“We think that our candidacy will provide an alternative to the major parties for Iowa citizens who want a smaller government,” said Cooper, who will serve as the gubernatorial candidate. “We believe we will attract support from fiscally responsible Democrats, socially liberal Republicans, and Independents who are tired of the ever-expanding size of Iowa government.

“Our goal in this election is to get at least 2 percent of the vote, which would give the Libertarian Party major party status under Iowa law. We also hope to draw enough support away from the major parties to encourage them to poach our issues in order to steal our voters.”

Cooper is an associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Iowa State University, and is currently the vice chairman of the Libertarian Party of Iowa. He has previously run five times as a Libertarian for the Iowa legislature from Ames, and was the Iowa College Coordinator for the Ron Paul presidential campaign prior to the 2008 caucuses.

Welta, who will serve as the ticket’s lieutenant governor candidate, is a systems administrator for the Iowa Judicial Branch, and served as the vice chairman of the Libertarian Party of Iowa from 2006 to 2008.

Key issues in the campaign, according to the two candidates, will be encouraging the legalization of marijuana in the state of Iowa, allowing greater school choice for both primary and higher education students and repealing the Iowa fireworks ban. More information regarding the candidates’ stance on the issues can be found by visiting their website.

While 2 percent of the vote may seem like a relatively easy task, it has historically been difficult for third parties in Iowa to attain. Due to an engorged field of Republican hopefuls — the party most likely to lose voters to Libertarian candidates — it remains unlikely that a third party will reach such a goal in 2010.

Now, throw former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee into the mix.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Des Moines last year promoting another book (Jason Hancock/Iowa Independent).

The winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses make three stops in Iowa Sunday, Nov. 8, to promote his latest book, “A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.” Huckabee will be in Davenport at 2:30 p.m.,  Cedar Rapids at 5 p.m., and Des Moines at 8 p.m., a day after Pawlenty gives the keynote speech at a Republican Party of Iowa event in Des Moines.

It will be Huckabee’s second appearance in Iowa this year. In May, he spoke at the Iowa Association of Business and Industry’s annual convention before holding a fundraiser for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats.

After Pawlenty and Huckabee leave town, Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Paul will return to Iowa for the first time since the 2008 Caucuses, where the Texas lawmaker finished fifth. Paul is scheduled to speak at Iowa State University in Ames on Nov. 13 at 7 p.m. The next morning he will headline a fundraiser for state Rep. Kent Sorenson’s Iowa Senate campaign at the Des Moines Airport Holiday Inn.

Barry Goldwater lost one of the great landslides of American history in 1964. But the 2008 numbers aren’t at landslide levels, at least not yet. Chuck Todd of MSNBC thinks an Obama popular vote win is a certainty, since Obama does way better in red states than John Kerry did, but a McCain electoral college win is still possible.

But CNN reported yesterday that McCain bailing out of Iowa, New Mexico and Colorodo yesterday. McCain, who’s known to be a gambling man, needs to draw to an inside straight, run the table, hit the superfecta… choose your long-odds gambling metaphor, and insert Pennsylvania as your long-shot horse.

Steven Stark at Real Clear Politics argues that, rather than 1964, 2008 more closely resembles 1968 or 1932 — a year of realignment to be followed four years hence by the landslide:

Parties decisively thrown out of power usually spend the next campaign turning to their fringe, on the theory that “if we had only stuck to our principles, instead of compromising, we would have won.” Already we can see numerous Republicans mouthing that mantra. If followed to its conclusion, the result in 2012 will be the same as it was in 1936 when the Republicans nominated Alf Landon after the FDR landslide in 1932, and in 1972 when the Democrats nominated George McGovern after the GOP won the White House in 1968.

Read Iowa’s Republican blogs and you’ll see that already: the state convention Republican National Committee election where party stalwarts were replaced by the heads of the Iowa Christian Alliance and Iowa Right to Life, the complaints that longshot U.S. Senate Candidate Chris Reed and 1st District congressional nominee Dave Hartsuch are being undercut by the “Romney Party of Iowa,” the Iowa Christian Alliance’s call for a no vote on all judges unless they get answers on “whether the judge leans to the left or to the right.” They’re convinced that the road to victory starts with a hard right turn.

If they do that, Stark argues, other forces will come into play:

But beyond that, the Republicans could face an even greater challenge. In times of economic turmoil, American history teaches us that voters usually seek out a populist alternative. The greatest political threat to FDR in the early ’30s came not from the Republicans but from his own party’s Huey Long, with his “share the wealth” economics.

The Kingfish, of course, was removed from the equation with his 1935 assassination. But Stark — now that’s funny, Long was semi-fictionalized as “Willie Stark” in “All The King’s Men — Stark argues that the populist of the 2010s may be a revived Pat Buchanan, or fellow talking head Lou Dobbs playing the immigration card.

One could add Ron Paul to that list. Though he’s running for re-election to Congress as a Republican, the one-time presidential candidate and internet phenomenon has endorsed Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party for president, and in a post-apocalyptic Republican landscape, Paul and his massive fundraising and contact lists could be a key player.

As one considers the minor arcana of dogma that separates these groups from one another, it’s easy to recall this scene from Monty Python’s Christ parody, “Life of Brian.”

REG: Right. You’re in. Listen. The only people we hate more than the Romans are the Judean People’s Front.
PEOPLE’S FRONT OF JUDEA (a grand total of five people, including the new member): Yeah… Splitters!
FRANCIS: And the Judean Popular People’s Front.
PFJ: Yeah. Oh, yeah. Splitters. Splitters…
LORETTA: And the People’s Front of Judea.
PFJ: Yeah. Splitters. Splitters…
REG: What?
LORETTA: The People’s Front of Judea. Splitters.
REG: WE’RE the People’s Front of Judea!
LORETTA: Oh. I thought we were the Popular Front.
REG: PEOPLE’S Front!
FRANCIS: Whatever happened to the Popular Front, Reg?
REG: He’s over there (indicates one man sitting alone).
PFJ: SPLITTER!

It’s a lot like academic politics or student government. The bitterness of the disputes are inversely proportional to the stakes.

The same dynamic occurs on both ends of the spectrum, as Erich Hoffer noted in his 1951 classic, The True Believer. Hoffer argues that movements are interchangeable, that fanatics will often flip from one movement to another, and movements resemble each other in style and method, even when their stated view are diametrically opposed.

This was evident last month as Congressman Ron Paul, erstwhile Republican presidential candidate and the internet phenom of November-December 2007, made his endorsement. Paul remains a sitting member of the House GOP caucus, but has explicitly NOT endorsed John McCain.

A few weeks ago, Paul hosted a press conference of several third party contenders and endorsed a generic, vote for any third party stance. But Paul’s presumed favorite, Libertarian nominee Bob Barr skipped the event and held his own event instead. Paul, who was himself the Libertarian candidate in 1988, retaliated by endorsing Chuck Baldwin of the relatively obscure Constitution Party instead.

By third party standards, Libertarian nominee Barr is a relative celebrity, a former member of Congress who had a high media profile back in the Clinton impeachment era. In contrast, Baldwin is a classic third party contender–an leading activist in a tiny movement with no profile among the broader voting public. Third parties are often torn between nominating a longtime loyalist like Baldwin or a celebrity newcomer like Barr.

Electorally, they’ve done better with the big names, like Jesse Ventura, who went through some party splintering himself. He was elected governor of Minnesota in 1998 on Ross Perot’s Reform Party ticket, then split after Pat Buchanan’s hard-right hostile takeover. Ventura started his own Minnesota Independence Party, which has lived on past his governorship. No, it’s not advocating that Minnesota become a country, like the Alaska Independence Party that First Dude Todd Palin affiliated with for a while.

Back over on the left, the strained relationship between Ralph Nader and the Green Party has led to electoral results less than the sum of the parts. Ralph Nader did much better running with the Greens in 2000 than he did running against the Greens, and their obscure party activist nominee, in 2004. Of course, there were other factors, like the Florida results of 2000. But the resources of the left, and the willingness of the media to cover lesser-known candidates, hurts both Nader and 2008 Green nominee Cynthia McKinney.

The candidates of the libertarian and right spectrum are likely to have a bigger impact than the left, as Barr may be a factor in several close states. Perhaps not so much Iowa, which is looking stronger for Barack Obama by the week. But Barr could be significant in some of the Rocky Mountain states, where Libertarians have run well, and in his native Georgia, which Obama is trying to put into play. (McKinney is also a Georgia native, but her African American base seems solid for Obama.)

But Paul’s decision to back the obscure Baldwin, rather than the better-known Barr, is a classic case of the third party movement crumbling late in the game. It probably gives McCain a small boost in a few close states, but one would need special scientific instruments to measure it.

Most of the Old Media were caught up in Lipstick On A Pig, Day Two, trying to decide if Barack Obama had insulted Sarah Palin, and occasionaly noting that John McCain had used the same phrase describing Hillary Clinton’s health care plan. Obama decried the Same Old Rove Politics by repeating (at 2:42 into the clip below) the emphasized “Enough!” from his Democratic National Convention stadium acceptance speech, but then concluded the clause with “Enough Is Enough!“…

…and fans of internet memes all know what follows THAT exclamation.

WARNING: NOT SAFE FOR WORK

Democrats looking for a surrogate to go on the attack could do worse than Samuel L. Jackson and his NSFW anti-snake rhetoric.

Jackson is also anti-pork — eating, not spending — in “Pulp Fiction,” memorably noting, “I don’t wanna eat nothin’ that ain’t got enough sense to disregard its own feces.” But lipstick on a pig may actually help here in the hog state, provided this independent candidate doesn’t split the votes.

Arnold Ziffel guarantees “no pork barrel politics,” so that bridge to nowhere, or rather to Hootervile, is a firm “thanks, but no thanks.”

Independent candidates (perhaps including Ziffel) will split the vote all over the place, if Ron Paul has his way. He endorsed… well, no one in particular on Wednesday, but rather third parties in general and Not McCain in the specific, making a point of saying that he’d gotten a last minute call from the McCain campaign asking for an endorsement and that he’s turned them down. Everyone assumes Paul is really backing Bob Barr, whose running mate this week offered to stand down for Paul. Paul, meanwhile, is coasting to re-election to the house — on the Republican ticket. He may have to eat lunch alone next year.

Or perhaps dine with Joe Lieberman, whose John McCain endorsement got kicked out of the Senate Democrat’s lunch table, but not out of his committee chairmanship. Yet.

As for McCain, he’s fighting the election with the running mate he has, not the running mate he wants. Sarah Palin’s fifteen minutes are continuing, the question being if they will last until Nov. 4. But an analysis of Gallup polling shows that nearly all of McCain’s post-Palin gains are in the South.

In the South, South Carolina Democratic chair Carol Fowler got herself in trouble Wednesday for noting that Palin’s giving birth to her son with Down syndrome was an important part of her public persona. And that’s something I’ve heard Palin’s pro-life/anti-choice (choose your side, even neutral language is near impossible) supporters say as well. Unfortunately, the phrase Fowler chose was that Palin’s “primary qualification seems to be that she hasn’t had an abortion.”

She quickly apologized. But Joe Biden, wiping a little saliva off his shoes, may have been grateful.

Hamburg Inn patrons could vote as many times as they visited the diner by dropping a coffee bean into their candidate’s jar.  The Coffee Bean Caucus was featured on TV’s “The West Wing” in 2005.  Results were announced this morning on a live CNN broadcast from the Hamburg Inn.

Several candidates, including Obama, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Green candidate Cynthia McKinney, visited the Hamburg Inn in 2007.  Former president Bill Clinton also stopped by.

The votes leaned strongly Democratic in liberal Iowa City.  Obama had nearly a two to one lead over second place Democrat Hillary Clinton, who in turn held nearly a two to one lead over Edwards.  On the GOP side, Paul’s lead was strong but less overwhelming over Mitt Romney.

Complete results below the fold.

Democratic		Republican
Barack Obama *	1733	Ron Paul	132
Hillary Clinton	830	Mitt Romney *	87
John Edwards *	445	Rudy Guiliani	71
Dennis Kucinich	291	Mike Huckabee	70
Bill Richardson	276	John McCain *	46
Joe Biden *	176	Fred Thompson	46
Chris Dodd *	79	Duncan Hunter	5
Mike Gravel	0
Cynthia McKinney (Green) *	36	Undecided	215

* Visited Hamburg Inn, 2007

“Clearly the majority, meaning at least 51 percent, of the Ron Paul people have never been involved in politics or only minimally,” Drew Ivers, Paul’s state chairman, told the Iowa Independent. “So the point is to get them to realize that saying `rah, rah Ron Paul,’ or putting a sign in the front yard, or talking to the neighbors about his strengths, just isn’t enough. The only thing that matters is that they go to their caucus and write Ron Paul’s name on a slip of paper when it comes time to vote.

“Probably, mentally, they understand that,” Ivers continued. “But psychologically, I am not sure we, as a campaign, have gotten that to really sink in.”Like the rest of the field, Paul staffers are hustling this weekend to find ways to optimize the visiblity of his very vocal supporters. The campaign is making telephone calls to Republicans across the state gauging Paul’s support in the state and has run newspaper ads in several small town newspapers in the state as well as airing television ads in several markets.

One poll released this week showed Paul with support of 10 percent of likely voters, but Ivers said that might not be an accurate reflection of how the campaign will perform because first-time voters often aren’t included in those surveys.

“Our own polls show that we’re looking pretty decent among registered Republicans if we can just motivate them to go to the caucuses,” Ivers said.

Paul, who is campaigning extensively in New Hampshire and in Western states, has spent just 19 days in Iowa. Those events have drawn crowds of up to 800 people, many of them ardent Paul supporters.

“One of the things I keep telling our people is that we don’t want the Ron Paul people there, we want the new people there. We need you to bring them,” Ivers said.

They’ll get a chance on Wednesday when Paul returns to the state for one last round of campaigning. He’s going to make an appearance at the John Deere plant in Ankeny midday (no official time has been announced) and will make a foreign policy speech at the Hotel Fort Des Moines at 7 p.m. at an event featuring military veterans who have endorsed his candidacy. Thursday he’ll speak at Des Moines University at noon.

Leach replaced Denver lawyer Martha Tierney, who has been serving as interim chairwoman. Leach is currently the interim director of the Institute of Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is on leave from Princeton University, where he is the John L. Weinberg Visiting Professor of Public and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School. Leach serves on the board of several public companies and three nonprofit organizations – the Century Foundation, the Kettering Foundation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and formerly served as a trustee of Princeton University.

“Ron has no intention to run third party whatsoever,” said Paul spokesman Jesse Benton.

The Libertarian resolution reads:

“In the event that Republican primary voters select a candidate other than Congressman Paul in February of 2008, the Libertarian National Committee invites Congressman Paul to seek the presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party, to be decided in Denver, Colorado, during the Memorial Day weekend of 2008.”

Paul, a sitting Republican congressman, was the Libertarian nominee in 1988.  Paul himself has not directly and absolutely ruled out a run.  Last month, he avoided the question at an Iowa City rally.

A 31 year old female registered Democrat reported receiving the call on Thursday at her home number in Marion, and provided a recording of the call to Iowa Independent.

The male voice on the call never gives a name, but offers the following pitch:

“Hello. I’m a registered Democrat voter here in Iowa supporting Ron Paul for president because he’s serious about actually changing things in Washington.  I’m re-registering as a Republican now, or at the door on caucus night, so I can vote for Ron Paul in the caucus on January 3rd.  Hey, I can always re-register as a Democrat any time after the caucus.”

For 20 years as a congressman, this guy has never voted for more federal control, to overspend the budget, raise taxes, or increase government regulation.  He even voted against the congressional pay raises and opted out of their excessive retirement program.

As president, his plan will get us off the spiral of inflation.  He will quickly get us out of the war in Iraq, out of the NAFTA trade agreement, and actually put an end to illegal immigration.

For more information call 888-828-PAUL.  That’s 888-828-PAUL. Thank you and God bless.”

A disclaimer in a different male voice then says, “Authorized and paid for by Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign Committee.”

The phone number in the call is listed on the Paul campaign site.

The call recipient, Hillary Clinton supporter Sarah Poisel, said she was maddened more than she was persuaded by the call.  “I know people can do it,” she said of changing parties, “but it shouldn’t be encouraged.”

“Some Democrats might not think he’s a real Republican, but with the Democratic race as close as it is, they shouldn’t waste their votes on a Republican who’s not going to win,” said Poisel.