But Civic Skinny, the anonymous gossip columnist for Des Moines’ Cityview, says the contest is as much about revenge and staking a claim on 2012 as it is about who gets to challenge incumbent Democratic Gov. Chet Culver.

[According to a source] “A part of this is settling scores, another part is Iowa caucus related and, yes, [part is] the contest on the ballot,” this person said. He, or maybe she (“Keep my name out of the mix,” she, or maybe he, said) continued: “There was bad blood between Doug Gross and Bob Vander Plaats during the ’02 GOP gubernatorial race [which Gross lost to Tom Vilsack], especially at the end. The two ripped one another, nearly allowing Rep. Steve Sukup, as the good guy, to win a razor-thin, three-way primary race. As it was, Gross barely exceeded the minimum threshold of 35 percent to avoid the battle going to a state convention. Since then, Gross sided with [loser Jim] Nussle in his poorly run ’06 [gubernatorial] effort that saw Vander Plaats join the ticket after dropping his primary candidacy.”

There’s more: “Differences continued during ’07 and early ’08 with Gross leading the Mitt Romney effort in Iowa and Vander Plaats chairing the Mike Huckabee campaign, which won. Both former Governors are quietly preparing encore efforts. Huckabee will deal with high expectations; unclear yet what commitment Romney would make to Iowa a second time around. Huckabee has endorsed Vander Plaats in the ’10 GOP primary, as you know. With a ’10 victory, a newly re-inaugurated Terry Branstad would be in the thick of the action with governors and former governors dominating the field — possibly including Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal, Haley Barbour, even George Pataki, who made early stops in Iowa in ’05-06, only to defer to Rudy Giuliani when he made his candidacy clear. A governor Branstad would likely remain neutral, but not necessarily his political team with a data base of updated names.”

In other words, Gross is still pissed, and one reasons he’s backing Branstad is so he can settle a few scores.

Gross, who served as Branstad’s chief of staff when he was governor, has become a controversial figure for Iowa social conservatives thanks to a series of Op-Ed columns he penned earlier this year calling on his party to be more inclusive and focus less on social issues that are turning off a younger generation of voters.

Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic has argued that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty should skip Iowa because he will not pass all of the litmus tests imposed by the Hawkeye state’s Republican base. He has made similar points about former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In Pawlenty’s case, could a candidate really get away with skipping a state that borders his own, especially when the core of his electability argument is going to be “I can win in the Heartland”?

I think probably not.

More broadly, Ambinder and others seem to assume that Iowa’s Republican base is considerably more conservative than the Republican base nationwide. That would be the argument a candidate wanting to skip Iowa would make to justify his or her decision, but intuitively, it doesn’t seem to make much sense.

Iowa Republicans didn’t pull their apparent obsession with issues like same-sex marriage out of thin air. Depending on whose narrative you believe, that issue either comes from the Bible or from Karl Rove’s political playbook. Either way, Republicans are against it almost everywhere. Same goes for abortion and for worldviews that seem to deviate from mainstream “Judeo-Christian values.”

While Iowa Republicans may be more conservative than the GOP primary electorate in New Hampshire (which includes registered independents), how many other early primary states aren’t dominated by social conservatives?*

If the dreaded Iowa litmus tests were so unfair as to weed out every “center-right” Republican in the field, Romney would not have been the frontrunner here for almost all of 2007, and he would not have won that coveted “silver medal” on caucus night.

Days after the overly-conservative caucuses, Romney won another silver medal in New Hampshire, from an electorate apparently dominated by moderates. How can one of those two states be rigged against him while the other is fertile ground?

Here’s what’s really going on:

As the Republican party has shrunk nationwide, its spectrum of acceptable political beliefs has shrunk with it. That’s not unique to Iowa; it’s a national story that is covered somewhere every day.

Before a “skip Iowa” strategy makes sense for a candidate, that candidate has to show an ability to win in South Carolina and other states with similar Republican electorates.

Like it or not, the Iowa delegation blends in ideologically at Republican conventions. The base of the party’s power has shifted to the right. If a candidate loses for being too moderate, it won’t just be because of the primary calendar.

* Comparing how some later states voted during the 2008 primary might be an appealing way to answer this question, but I’d argue that in the later, bigger primary states, name ID, money, and electability were just as determinative of success as a candidate’s positions on social issues. On paper, the candidates agreed on almost all social issues anyway.

The 2008 winner of the GOP Iowa Caucuses raised $304,673 during the first six months of 2009 for his PAC and disbursed $336,589, donating only $17,500 to candidates across the country. On the last day of the filing period, Huck PAC gave $2,500 to Team Vander Plaats. (The PAC paid out $131,000 in payroll and benefits for its employees, and it spent $72,100 for fundraising-related expenses.)

Huckabee endorsed Vander Plaats’ candidacy in June, keynoting a fundraiser for the Sioux City businessman that the campaign said brought in around $80,000 (gubernatorial candidates won’t file financial disclosure with the state until January). Vander Plaats was Huckabee’s Iowa campaign director during the 2007-2008 presidential caucus season.

Free and Strong America PAC, the political action committee of Huckabee’s caucus rival, Mitt Romney, contributed no money to Iowa campaigns so far this year.

The Associated General Contractors of Iowa PAC came in second, raising $187,851, and the Credit Union PAC came in third with $100,933.

As for cash on hand, the Service Employees International Union Political Education and Action Iowa Fund was out front with $252,511. However, the union hasn’t raised or spent any money in 2009.

Associated General Contractors of Iowa PAC was next up with $248,511 cash on hand, and the Free and Strong America PAC-Iowa, organized by potential 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney, has $203,380. The Iowa State Education Association PAC has $196,107.

For a full listing, go to the IECDB Web site.

Deace, who hosts an afternoon drive-time show on WHO 1040, spoke with Coulter Feb. 26 about her latest book and the state of the conservative movement. Then, near the end of the interview, discussion turned to Romney and a frequent complaint the anti-abortion movement has with him – that the health care plan he supported in Massachusetts allowed for government subsidized abortions.

That portion of the interview, which included several pleas from Coulter to drop the Romney discussion and move on (including calling her critics “crazy Romney froofers” and comparing them to 9-11 conspiracy theorists) was pieced together for the video with other radio interviews in Florida, California and Colorado where the hosts gave her a similarly hard time.

“Coulter can answer soft-ball criticism from the left,” ARTL Vice President Steve Curtis said. “But she always has ‘to run’ when Christian journalists document her misinformation and ask for a correction?”

Romney famously lost his cool while appearing on WHO’s Jan Mickelson Show back in 2007. Romney and the show’s host engaged in a heated discussion about the Mormon faith that spilled into their off-air conversation. The radio station videotaped the entire exchange and it eventually made its rounds on the Internet (Romney asserts the video was taken without his knowledge).

Deace has been a long time critic of Romney, throwing his support before the 2008 Caucuses behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Before the eventual Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, chose his running mate, Deace and a group of social conservative activists publicly called for radio host Rush Limbaugh to stop calling for Romney’s inclusion on the ticket.

(h/t Wendy Norris at the Colorado Independent)

Iowa resident Stacey Lynn Cargill filed a complaint with the FEC alleging the group violated campaign finance laws by allowing political activist Marlene Elwell to use its office space and database in efforts to influence potential Iowa voters to cast their ballots for presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Because ICA is organized as a 501(C)4 nonprofit it is barred from trying to directly influence elections. It can only advocate on behalf of issues.

The FEC found no reason to believe that ICA violated regulations and closed the file.

Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney is hiring a team of staff members and consultants using money raised by his Free and Strong America political action committee, which most believe is a precursor to another presidential bid.

According to the Globe analysis, he spent $244,000 on contributions to congressional and other candidates between April and the November elections. He has spent more than twice as much on staff salaries and contracts to hire professional fundraisers, who are compiling contributor lists that will serve Romney well in a future presidential campaign.

In essence, Romney is financing a political enterprise that he can use to remain a national GOP leader and use as a springboard should he decide to launch another presidential bid for 2012.

In Iowa, Romney’s PAC spent $16,000 on two state House races and two state Senate races, including $10,000 for Republican Kim Reynolds in the southwestern Senate District 48.

Romney was long considered the frontrunner in the Iowa Caucuses until he was surprisingly defeated by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in what turned into an ugly campaign.

The fierce battle between former Republican governors Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, which dominated the final months of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, is once again in the headlines, thanks to Huckabee’s latest book.

And with the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination seemingly already under way (another potential candidate, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, visits Iowa Saturday), it appears as though this could be the opening shot of the new campaign.

Huckabee will be in Windsor Heights and Cedar Rapids on Thursday promoting his new book, which according to Politico’s Jonathan Martin aims to “settle a few scores, not the least of which is with his fierce primary rival, Mitt Romney.”

Romney, Huckabee writes, was “anything but conservative until he changed the light bulbs in his chandelier in time to run for president.”

At another point, Huckabee portrays a Romney proposal to encourage more investment in the market as, “Let them eat stocks!”

Romney did not make a congratulatory phone call after Huckabee was victorious in Iowa, which Huckabee writes was “a sign of total disrespect.”

Many thought of Romney as the GOP presidential frontrunner until Huckabee’s surprising Iowa victory upended his candidacy. The two traded barbs in the press throughout the campaign, although since its completion Huckabee has been the one lobbing criticism. At the Republican Party of Iowa’s convention in July, Huckabee told the delegates about a man who thought he recognized Huckabee at an airport.

“I know who you are,” Huckabee said the man told him, “You’re Mitt Romney.”

Huckabee’s response: “Dude, if I were Mitt Romney I wouldn’t be riding in coach right now.”

Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom responded by telling Politico that Huckabee’s book showed that he is more interested in “settling scores than bringing people together” and that he is “consumed with presumed slights.”

With that in mind, the Sioux City Journal asked 11 Republican county chairs in the conservative stronghold of northwest Iowa whom they hoped would be victorious, proving that in Iowa it is always a presidential election year.

1. Mitt Romney

Why: The former Massachusetts Governor and CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City was essentially the runner-up in 2008.

What they said: “(Romney) is just a genius when it comes to finances, and our country desperately needs that experience.” — Clay County GOP Chairman George Moriarity of Spencer

2. Sarah Palin

Why: The young Alaska governor was a popular force among base conservatives as John McCain’s running mate.

What they said: “I believe that (Palin) is a woman of integrity and great talent. … She has a gift, a brightness to her, a freshness that we haven’t seen in a long time.” — Emmet County GOP Chairwoman Debra Satern of Estherville

3. Bobby Jindal

Why: The Louisiana governor, at 36 the youngest governor in the United States, offers a fresh face and conservative credentials.

What they said: “(Jindal) has got a good (life) story. He’s an up-and-coming, energetic guy, and he’s a good communicator.” — Woodbury County GOP Chairman Kevin Alons of Salix

4. Mike Huckabee

Why: Huckabee rode a wave of support in Iowa, especially in Sioux County, to a caucus win and appeals to evangelical Christian conservatives.

What they said: “I think we need some new, young, energetic leadership — conservative, but new.” — Lyon County GOP Chairman John Fluit Jr. of Inwood

County chairs were asked to select three, and rankings were tabulated by assigning three points for a top pick, two points for a second and one point for third.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Des Moines last Friday.

Langston, a Democrat, scouted the full field, arguably the deepest ever for her party in terms of resumes and star quality, before picking U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., as her candidate — a choice she made during a ride to the Cedar Rapids airport with Obama amid discussions of the state’s understated beauty.

She saw something within Obama that helped her to make what was a personal decision to support the first-term senator.

“As we were talking, we just became four people,” Langston said. “At that moment in time what I saw was that Senator Obama still had a piece of his humanity. Running for president and all the challenge and hoopla can really put you into a very unusual atmosphere.

“It can change you. I had at that moment, and I continue to have, a sense of Obama as a person. That’s also certainly true with (his wife) Michelle. There is a humanity that still exists within that family that has not been subverted by running for president.”

It’s that unflappable quality and connection to people that Langston believes helped Obama win the nomination.

John McCain speaks to a crowd in Le Mars during the Iowa caucuses. Immigration dominated that forum in northwest Iowa.

While insiders spent time recently thinking about what has made Obama’s campaign successful, most talk of the McCain campaign was more about its missteps than its successes.

Many see McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running-mate as a turning point in the election.

Former GOP gubernatorial candidate David Oman, a top staffer for Iowa’s last two Republican governors, says McCain would have been better served by picking former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

“I’ve thought a handful of times the past month that he would have helped, perhaps a lot, in energizing GOP base, appealing to folks deeply troubled by downturn and so-called bailout, and in several southern and border states now close,” Oman said.

He said that Palin has not benefited the Republican ticket.

“Look at the [Des Moines Register] Iowa Poll breakouts with 60 percent of people feeling she is not qualified to assume the presidency,” Oman said.  “Huckabee would have passed that test. Romney, too, though he would have cemented many peoples’ classic impressions of the GOP brand — wealth — and probably not turned around a single state, including Michigan.”

Oman said that if Obama is elected Tuesday he will have to remember where his journey initially received traction.

“It wasn’t in Pennsylvania, or many other states,” Oman said. “It was in Iowa, first.  Lack of success here followed by second in New Hampshire would have shut down his campaign for the nomination.”

Oman said Obama clearly will have higher priorities that need to be addressed before he can focus on a more specifically rural agenda.

“I suspect Obama will focus first on the mega problems of the economy, energy, and health care, not to mention national security with or without the incident [VP nominee Joe] Biden forecasted,” Oman said.

Former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Mike Peterson, now an executive with AT&T in St. Louis, Mo., says at this point, it seems as if the presidential race is all about margin of victory.

“I will be surprised if Obama receives fewer than 350 electoral votes,” Peterson said.

Peterson said he still believes that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would have made a stronger running mate for McCain than Palin.

In terms of governing following the election, Peterson said an Obama win is good for rural Iowa.

“I am told that Obama’s first legislative package will be an infrastructure bill,” Peterson said.  “Iowa’s seniority should be a plus there.”

Veteran Iowa writer Chuck Offenburger runs a popular Web site and churns out prolific articles for a variety of publications from a renovated farmhouse outside of Cooper in Greene County. He sees Obama as a stronger leader for rural Iowa than McCain.

“Rural Iowa will fare much better under Obama than it would have under McCain,” Offenburger, a Republican, said.  “Obama understands the Midwest. He understands agriculture and what a huge role ag will play in the new energy era. And he will never forget the huge role Iowans played in enabling his candidacy.”

On the eve of the election State Rep. Tom Schueller, D-Maquoketa, recalled the early days of the Iowa caucuses when he was receiving call after call from candidates.

“I supported Joe Biden in the caucus,” Schueller said. “I thought he would have done better. To be honest with you, I really blame the media for that. They picked up on who they thought was the front-runners and that’s who ended up being the front runners. The other ones didn’t get hardly an honorable mention. Those folks — Biden, (New Mexico Gov, Bill) Richardson and (Connecticut Sen. Chris) Dodd — had a lot of good things to say too.”

Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in Lexington, Ky., puts it flatly.

“I see no chance for McCain,” Cross said. “Hindsight is always 20/20. Romney would have brought the base around, though not stimulated crowds and volunteers like Palin. He would have been viewed as qualified, and could have probably made more coherent arguments than McCain, so the election would have been closer.

“But this is all a parlor game because McCain wasn’t about to pick someone he couldn’t get along with, and I agree with that approach. You have to think about governing, not just winning. Obama did that with Biden, an example of his better judgment.”

Down in southern Iowa, State Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston, says McCain has a chance when one looks at the internals in a lot of the state polls.

“Right now, both the Democratic base and the Republican base are fired up,” Angelo said.  “So you assume in a record turnout that the bases are cancelling each other — sorta like my wife and I — you then look at the number among if McCain can swing some of them and the undecideds in the battleground states, he pulls out the electoral win.   Obama was hoping for a blowout based on the participation of new and infrequent voters — but early returns indicate that the early voters are mostly the same voters who always vote early.”

Angelo said McCain’s selection of Palin brought passion to base and delivered a middle-class relevancy.

There is a reason that “Joe The Plumber” became a central figure in this campaign, Angelo said.

“With Palin and Joe’s involvement, McCain got his campaign groove back by realizing that there are a large group of middle class voters who didn’t believe their concerns were being addressed in the campaign,” Angelo said.  “Romney doesn’t have that power to harness the energy of those voters and get them to the polls. Palin does.  She’s ‘one of us.’  In short, I don’t think the race is close without Palin.”

Sarah Palin at a recent rally in Sioux City.

Offenburger thinks McCain’s problem wasn’t in choosing Palin, but in shackling her to a script and cocooning a natural campaigner.

“Let me admit that I still think Palin was a good choice, especially given where the McCain campaign was in August” Offenburger said  “And that leads me to what I think is the biggest mistake McCain made — letting his campaign staff mismanage Palin from the moment she said ‘yes.’  They should have let her talk one-on-one to every reporter, columnist and broadcaster who wanted to talk, instead of packaging her up for those huge exclusive interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric — under the glare of the brightest lights and widest audiences imaginable.  That was unfair to Palin.

“If the rest of the press corps had been getting frequent access to her immediately, one-on-one and in small gatherings, she would’ve learned quickly to relax and be herself.  I think she would have then shown people the knowledge, ability, personality and savviness that have helped her become governor of a huge, complex and important state.  By the way, I think she would do very well in the kind of retail politics that the Iowa caucuses require.”

For his part, Schueller said Obama has picked a running mate who understands the middle class.

“Look at how he gets to work everyday and look at what he’s done since he’s been there,” Schueller said. “Second of all, Obama has some Midwest roots, being from Illinois and all. So, he’s going to understand our needs a little better than McCain ever would or could. And he’s going to have a better grasp of agriculture than McCain ever would or could. That’s been reflected in Obama’s campaigning. McCain’s record reflects what he thinks about ethanol, renewable energy and so-forth.”

Langston said she knew McCain was in trouble when she saw him speak during the caucus campaign season at a Cedar Rapids Rotary Club meeting.

“That’s a rather large group of over 200 significant business people,” Langston said. “Really, [McCain’s] presentation was not good. By my estimation, it was appallingly bad. While the campaign was talking about having no money, they came into the meeting with drapes and curtains and tele-prompters. I thought, ‘Oh my.’ I mean if you can’t stand up in front of an Iowa Rotary and give a speech without all of this.”