Though Vilsack’s appointment does not completely preclude a bid for the U.S. Senate, it probably precludes one in 2010.  A campaign against Grassley would have to start early — likely within the next six months — and the President-elect probably got an assurance from Vilsack that he would not skip out on his new job so soon.

A lot of Democratic insiders seem to think that Vilsack was their party’s only hope against Grassley in 2010.  They might be right, but that is no reason to offer an unconditional surrender.

The U.S. Senate race will be at the very top of the ballot in two years, and Democrats should have learned the lesson of 2004 by now: Running a laughable candidate against Grassley can cost you the “straight ticket” votes you need in other races.  If Art Small had lost to Grassley by only 300,000 votes instead of the nearly 600,000 votes he lost by that year, don’t you think Sen. John Kerry could have gotten the paltry 10,000 votes he needed to win statewide?

Gov. Chet Culver could face a tough race for reelection in 2010.  He could do without the added weight of another landslide victory for Grassley holding him down.

So let’s take a look at the Democratic bench.

Most of the big name Democrats in Iowa politics are likely to sit this race out, unwilling to launch a losing battle against such a behemoth.  But there are a few possible candidates who would see little political downside to running a respectable-but-unsuccessful campaign to unseat Iowa’s senior senator.  (As far as I know, none of the individuals listed below has expressed an interest in running, but each could conceivably lose to Grassley by less than 10 percentage points.)

Christie Vilsack, wife of the incoming Secretary of Agriculture, has indicated that she will continue some of her work in Iowa when her husband starts his new job in Washington, D.C.  She has always been at least as popular statewide as her husband, and, after years of appearing and raising money on behalf of Democrats and liberal organizations across Iowa, she has a thick Rolodex of favors to call in.

Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal might have bigger hopes for his political future, but if he is content with his seat in the State Senate, he could run against Grassley without giving it up, since his term lasts until 2012.  Because he represents a district in Western Iowa, he should have better name recognition there than most Democratic candidates.  And because of his work for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, he has a national fundraising network to tap.

Former Congressman and Economic Development Director Mike Blouin, who was Tom Vilsack’s unenthusiastically anointed pick to replace him in 2006, is keeping a relatively low profile these days.  But if the 2010 election is about the economy, he might have enough expertise and political acumen to hold Grassley to a tight race.  His 2006 runningmate, Dr. Andrea McGuire, might also be an interesting case if she can survive the 2010 Democratic primary.

Liberal gadfly and former State Rep. Ed Fallon, who has lost two high-profile Democratic primaries over the past four years, would be an interesting choice to run against Grassley.  Fallon has fairly strong statewide name recognition, and if he played along with the Democratic establishment enough to communicate a coherent message on behalf of his party’s whole ticket, he could lose by less than 10.

State Sen. Jeff Danielson had a political near-death experience in this year’s election, but he could still be a formidable candidate.  His biography is pitch-perfect (think “Navy,” and then think “firefighter”).  Under the right conditions, he could put together a coalition that would swamp his opponents out of the Democratic primary.  And he probably would not embarrass himself in the limelight.

There are also a few lesser-known state senators who have the ambition and energy needed to run statewide.  Tom Rielly, a moderate from conservative-leaning Oskaloosa, might be the strongest general election candidate among them.  A race like this would lay the groundwork for higher ambitions down the road.

Any names I missed?

Gov. Chet Culver, right, greets Senate Majority Leader Mike Grontsal at the State Capitol.

Despite having control of both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s mansion for the first time in 44 years, Democratic leaders in the House and Senate had public, and in some cases heated, disagreements with Gov. Chet Culver.

The differences came to a head when legislators passed a union-backed collective-bargaining bill despite a last-minute appeal from Culver that they allow more discussion.

At the time, Senate President Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg, said that despite threats of a veto, Culver had to sign the bill.

“Because of his future,” Kibbie said. “He’s running on the Democratic ticket, I presume.”

As it turned out, Culver did veto the legislation.

Now, with the 2009 session a little more than a month away and Democratic majorities even bigger than before, the big question remains: Can Democrats unite behind an agenda or will differences once again cause rifts in the party?

“I think both sides are jockeying for position,” said Christopher Larimer, a professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa. “I think right now everyone is in a good mood because of the election, but once the legislative session begins you’re going to see both sides try to position themselves as the leader on the issues.”

The constituency of legislators varies greatly, from urban to rural, conservative to liberal and everywhere in between, said Gordon Fischer, a former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. The governor, by contrast, has to look at issues with a statewide focus in mind. This inevitably leads to differences of opinion and helps explain much of the party’s past disagreements.

Others, however, say the rift between Culver and legislative leaders dates back to the 2006 gubernatorial campaign. That year, Sen. Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, and a large group of Democratic lawmakers backed former congressman Mike Blouin instead of Culver in the primary.

“After he was elected, I think the governor felt that he didn’t owe anybody anything and could govern as he saw fit without obligation to legislators and their agenda,” said Jeff Angelo, a former Republican state senator from Creston. “I don’t think Gov. Culver looks at 2010 and thinks ‘We’re all in this together.’ I think he has his own agenda and keeps his own counsel.”

Angelo said he sees the differences between the governor and legislative leaders as a mixture of political and personal.

“If you look at the collective-bargaining bill, I think the governor actually disagreed with legislators on policy,” he said. “But if you look at how it was passed, the Democrats pushed that through while the governor was on vacation. That was a personal slap to him. They passed it without his input, and that is personal.”

Fisher maintains that while there are areas of disagreement, they are few and far between.

“Look at what they’ve accomplished together,” he said. “They have agreed on many more issues than they’ve disagreed on.”

Democrats expanded their majorities this year in both houses of the Legislature, but the gains in the House failed to reach the 60-vote level needed to override a veto. Even though Culver campaigned vigorously in the closing weeks for House candidates across the state, Larimer called the Democrats’ failure to reach 60 seats a “blessing in disguise.”

“I think that it eliminates one potential problem down the road for him,” he said. “Expand the majority a little bit but not too much as to make him irrelevant.”

In the end, all agreed that neither the governor nor the Legislature is in the driver’s seat in the upcoming session.

“I think what’s going to drive the agenda is not a human being but the budget,” Angelo said. “Every decision will have to be made with a very tough budget year in mind. Democrats will have to figure out how to politically survive in a year that will be filled with hard decisions. I’ve been through tough budget years, and it’s not a pretty process.”

With Culver and most of the Legislature up for re-election in 2010, Fischer said there is no room for in-party fighting.

“I think a lot of the learning process is behind them and they realize they have a lot of work to do in 2009, and they have to work together,” he said.

Larimer agreed, saying Democrats will have no one to blame if the state’s economy does not improve, leaving the door open for Republicans to regain control.

“Democrats realize 2010 could be a tough year,” he said.