Burgmeier’s ad begins with messaging that seems to come straight from the Iowans for Tax Relief playbook: a cartoonish Gov. Chet Culver is peeking out of the statehouse, and red ink (which looks a little like blood) gushes out of the windows around him. Elderly Iowans then glare into the camera, admonishing elected officials and warning voters of the perils of Keynesian economics. The cuts between shots are rough and slightly reminiscent of a horror flick, and the announcer never mentions Hanson’s name.

Hanson’s ad was fashioned as a response to Burgmeier’s based on opposition research that his campaign first dropped here. It attacks Burgmeier on relatively standard points that one could make about most elected officials: voting to raise taxes, voting to raise his own salary, etc.

After the attacks, both ads switch to rainbows-and-butterflies mode, featuring cheerful announcers, saccharine background tunes, and lots of name repetition.

The ads are below, followed by an in-depth tea-leaf examination.

Stephen Burgmeier’s ad:

Curt Hanson’s ad:

Based on the ads, there’s a lot to speculate about. Here are some of my guesses about what’s going on in House District 90:

• Burgmeier, an elected Jefferson County supervisor, probably has the edge when it comes to name recognition. But in a generic matchup, my bet is that an unnamed Democrat defeats an unnamed Republican by a slight margin. Burgmeier probably outperforms the generic Republican by a few points — perhaps enough to close the gap — but those numbers are soft because Hanson is not known well enough yet. As voters learn who Hanson is, the numbers could shift quickly — unless the ad succeeds in changing the generic ballot numbers first.
• Hanson, a retired schoolteacher, is probably pretty well-liked wherever voters know him, and he doesn’t have a record to attack, so the Burgmeier campaign decided their best bet was to attack Democrats that nobody in the district knows personally. That has the added benefit of not boosting Hanson’s name recognition, since the ad never mentions his name. Burgmeier may also hope that this strategy will insulate him from the negative reactions that attack ads tend to elicit (I’m not sure that’ll work).
• Hanson’s ad names Burgmeier in it, so he must not be worried about increasing the Republican’s name recognition. (That probably means Burgmeier is already better known.)
• Hanson’s ad was pretty clearly a low-budget rush job. It features one announcer and only still photos with stock video. It’s a safe bet that it wasn’t the ad the campaign wanted to use to introduce Hanson, but they also did not want to leave Burgmeier’s negative spot up without any response. Expect a more polished, positive Hanson ad soon, assuming he doesn’t encounter any more surprises.
• Burgmeier probably already has a positive ad of his own in the can. While the ad-makers were in town to shoot footage of the elderly voters who appear in the current ad, it’s safe to assume that they got footage of their candidate talking to the camera for future use. If they didn’t, then they were wasting resources.
• Burgmeier wants to drive down turnout. Negative ads, especially cartoonish ones, do more to suppress votes than to persuade voters.
• Interestingly, both Burgmeier and Hanson are attacking from the right: Burgmeier focuses on debt, and Hanson focuses on tax hikes and pay raises. That probably means Burgmeier is worried that his base isn’t riled up enough, and Hanson is doing his best to keep Burgmeier’s base from getting any more riled than they already are. In other words, right now, both sides are battling to influence GOP turnout.
• So far, both sides are sticking to the formula, fitting comfortably inside the box. We’ve pretty much seen both of these ads before. And if you watch closely, you will notice that both ads switch from negative to positive at exactly the same moment, as if a one-second variation in one direction or the other would swing the election.

Yes, I just wrote 800 words about two 30-second television ads, which means I should probably issue a warning: Almost everything I’ve said here is speculation. I’m assuming, among other things, that both campaigns are making rational decisions based on complete, accurate information. As anybody who has ever been involved in a campaign knows, that’s not always the way it works.

(I’m also assuming that the ads are both running on television, which is somewhat difficult to verify at this moment.) I have been able to confirm that both ads are airing on TV.

Update: Some alternate scenarios have occurred to me since this post was published:

• Burgmeier’s name recognition may be strong among Republicans in Jefferson County but weak among Republicans elsewhere. If that is the case, his ad should be helpful for catching Wapello and Van Buren County conservatives’ attention and then beating them over the head with Burgmeier’s name until they can’t forget it.
• The compressed timetable of a special election like this one may have necessitated the 30-second, negative-then-positive format, so perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into it.

While most state legislative races are decided largely on the basis of personalities, reputations, and name identification, this one could be close enough for other political factors to tip the scale in one direction or the other. Here are a few open questions that could define how the HD90 campaign fits into the broader political picture:

Iowa House District 90 (Source: www.legis.state.ia.us)

Which party has momentum right now? If the GOP senses an opportunity to change the current political narrative to prove that its candidates are gaining traction statewide, they could divert more resources to Burgmeier. Likewise, if Democrats or their allies decide that their whole agenda, not merely one house district, is at stake, the cash could start piling up.

Will state Rep. Kerry Burt’s scandals hurt Hanson? It seems unlikely, but now that there’s video of Burt’s arrest on OWI charges during this year’s legislative session, the question is worth asking. Sure, running a last-minute ad connecting that scandal (or the other Burt scandal) to other House Democrats could easily backfire, but a campaign that’s down five points a week before election day might be willing to trot it out.

How healthy is the relationship between House Democrats and the labor movement? Though HD90 does not have a huge labor presence, statewide labor groups will have to decide whether to divert resources to the race like they usually do for Democratic candidates. But after a second disappointing legislative session in which Democrats failed to deliver on key labor priorities, they may not be in such a helpful mood.

Which party is at fault for the struggling economy? Without an incumbent on the ballot, there is no obvious person for voters to blame for their problems — not that Whitaker’s (virtually uncontested) 2008 campaign had much of a problem with that. But now that Democrats control federal and state government, conventional wisdom says they could find themselves where the GOP found itself in 2008. That could hurt Hanson, or, if voters still blame the GOP for lingering economic woes, it could hurt Burgmeier.

Which party has a stronger campaign apparatus in place between election years? Though state Rep. Chris Rants (R-Sioux City) was ousted as minority leader after last year’s election, much of the infrastructure he built to support House Republican campaigns has reportedly remained in place. The House Democrats’ Truman Fund maintains a staff in between elections, as well. If one side was able to mobilize its operation faster than the other side, they would get a head start on fundraising, voter contacts, and absentee ballot requests that could make the difference in a close race. (If it’s any indication, Democrats announced their candidate before Republicans, but both parties had announcements ready pretty quickly.)

We don’t yet know the answers to these questions, and as I said at the beginning, they may not even matter if one candidate runs away with the race early. But if it’s close, any one of them could make the difference.

Two candidates have emerged for the seat: Democrat Curt Hanson, a teacher from Fairfield, and Republican Stephen Burgmeier, a Jefferson County supervisor.

Without an incumbent on the ballot, House District 90 could be very competitive. It includes all of Van Buren County and parts of both Jefferson and Wapello counties.

Presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain visited the Iowa State Fair on Friday.

U.S. Sen. John McCain promised to open new markets for Iowa agricultural products during a visit to the Iowa State Fair.

“I get a chance to come here and meet and greet the real America, the people that are providing products all over this world,” said McCain. “All over the world, people are consuming the quality products that are produced right here in the great state of Iowa. And I want to say thank you for that. And my mission and my job as president of the United States, one of them, will be to make sure that every market in the world is open to your products.”

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee spoke to a crowd of several hundred people who had gathered at the Des Moines Register building at the fair, emphasizing the value that can be added to pork products when new markets are opened up around the world. McCain was joined by his wife, Cindy, as well as fellow Republican, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey.

Iowa Farm Bureau Federation President Craig Lang also stood with McCain during the speech. Northey and Lang — two long-time, vocal supporters of government programs that promote ethanol –applauded as McCain discussed his views on energy policy, despite McCain’s opposition to federal subsidies for renewable fuels.

“I want to tell you, we will disagree from time to time,” said McCain. “I believe in renewable fuels. I don’t believe in ethanol subsidies. But I believe in renewable fuels. I believe we have to do all of those things to restore our economy, but my friends, we will disagree on a specific issue, and that’s healthy.”

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain speaks to the crowd at the Iowa State Fair. He was joined by Iowa agriculture secretary Bill Northey and Iowa Farm Bureau Federation president Craig Lang.

The Arizona senator said that the United States needs to enact an “all of the above” strategy to attempt to achieve energy independence. “We must achieve energy independence,” he said. “I call it the Lexington Project. It’s got to be wind, tide, solar, nuclear. Nuclear power has to be part of any solution. My friends, we’re a long way from the ocean, but we’ve got to drill offshore and we’ve got to drill now.”

McCain ridiculed a statement from his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who had called on Americans to check for proper tire inflation to reduce fuel costs. “My friends, I’m all in favor of inflating our tires, don’t get me wrong. But that’s a public service announcement, it’s not an energy policy.”

The presidential candidate also visited various Iowa State Fair landmarks Friday, constantly surrounded by curious fair-goers as he viewed such displays as the famous Butter Cow and the 1,250-pound winner of the largest boar contest.

Following McCain’s speech, Iowa Independent interviewed Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan and Iowa House Agriculture Committee Chairman Rep. John Whitaker.

Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan and Iowa House Agriculture Committee chairman Rep. John Whitaker respond to McCain's visit at the fair.

Whitaker said McCain is apparently out of touch with what is happening right now in the grain markets. “He talked about the export market, but he apparently didn’t check the markets this morning,” said Whitaker. “The dollar went up and corn and beans just plummeted overnight because of that. You know, they were up yesterday, then boom. One little bit of news on the dollar and then you have a lack of exports because of that. And our export market dries up like a hot August wind.”

Brennan said McCain’s opposition to renewable fuels programs in the past has put the Republican candidate at odds with Iowa’s values. “He’s against the farm bill and against the ethanol subsidies, and has been from the get-go,” said Brennan. “He’s just wrong for Iowa. He’s always been wrong for Iowa.”

Brennan went on to say McCain’s 10th-place finish in the Republican Straw Poll last year and his fourth-place finish in the Iowa Republican caucuses is enough to show that the candidate does not understand Iowa’s values. “Iowans, the little bit they know of him, they haven’t liked him,” said Brennan. “And for good reason. He doesn’t stand up for Iowa values.”

This morning, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Des Moines endorsed Biden on the steps of the Iowa State Capitol. Last week, the Democrat from Delaware was endorsed by Assistant Majority Leader John Whitaker, D-Hillsboro.

As Congress prepares for a battle in Washington, D.C., over what to do about the war in Iraq, Iowa’s House leaders have lined up behind Biden and his plan for Iraq, which was the primary reason for both leaders endorsing Biden. “Iraq is by far the single most important issue facing America today and Joe Biden has the most credible plan to get us out without causing further chaos,” McCarthy said in a press release. “His plan, coupled with his unmatched foreign policy experience, make Joe Biden the best choice to lead America out of the crisis in Iraq.”

Last week, Whitaker, whose son was recently deployed to Iraq, also cited Biden’s foreign-policy experience and plan for Iraq. “Joe Biden is the only Democratic candidate for president who understands the impact of this war on the families of those soldiers serving our country,” Whitaker said. “Joe Biden has fought to get our troops Mine Resistant Vehicles which have the capability of saving the lives of thousands of soldiers, and his Veteran’s Plan offers our troops everything from improved healthcare and better handling of disability claims to job placement and educational services.”McCarthy, a local Polk County prosecutor, was first elected to the House in 2003. He became Democratic majority leader in January after having played a key role in engineering the Democratic takeover of the Iowa House last year.

“Representative McCarthy’s proven leadership and recent success in winning back control of the Iowa House brings a powerful dimension to our campaign,” said Danny O’Brien, national political director for Biden’s campaign. “Kevin’s endorsement – and that of his colleagues – speaks volumes of the confidence Iowa’s elected officials have in Joe Biden’s unique ability to lead our country during these challenging times at home and abroad.”

“It is an honor to have Kevin join our Iowa team,” Biden said in a press release. “Having watched Kevin lead the fight in taking back control of the House last year, I saw early on his leadership skills and drive to restore a Democratic agenda in Iowa. I look forward to Kevin campaigning with me as I work to win the Iowa caucus.”

With McCarthy’s endorsement, Biden extended his second-place status in the Iowa Lawmaker Endorsement War among Democratic candidates. While Biden’s eight endorsements still trail New York Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 16 endorsements, he leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by three. Whether or not these endorsements register any political value, we’ll have to wait until January, when the candidates attempt to cash them in for votes at the Iowa Caucuses.

“Joe Biden is the only Democratic candidate for president who understands the impact of this war on the families of those soldiers serving our country,” Whitaker said. “Joe Biden has fought to get our troops Mine Resistant Vehicles which have the capability of saving the lives of thousands of soldiers, and his Veteran’s Plan offers our troops everything from improved healthcare and better handling of disability claims to job placement and educational services.”

Whitaker and Biden connected right away, because of the similar bond they share regarding their sons, said Biden’s Deputy Press Secretary Annie Tomasini. Biden’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, is a member of the Delaware National Guard and has received orders to deploy to Iraq sometime next year. “I know that Sen. Biden will end this war in a way that will not leave behind chaos and will not require our troops having to go back later on down the road,” Whitaker added.Since Biden is in Iraq this week, the Biden Campaign will be represented at today’s press conference in Fairfield by J.B. White, an Iraq veteran and the campaign’s National Veterans Coordinator.

“It is an honor for the Biden Campaign to have the endorsement of John Whitaker,” White said.”The commitment of John, his family and especially his son Gabe represent the best in American values. His support is a demonstration of the respect many Iowans feel for Joe Biden and his plan to end this war in a way that protects America ’s interests.”

Whitaker, a farmer, has served in the Iowa House of Representatives since 2003. He is the Vice Chair of the Committee on Agriculture, and is also a member of the Administration and Rules, Natural Resources, Public Safety and Transportation committees.

Whitaker joins six colleagues in the state legislature in a growing list of elected officials supporting Joe Biden in the Hawkeye state: State Sen. Joe Seng (Davenport), Rep. Doris Kelly (Waterloo) Rep. Lisa Heddens (Ames), Rep. Jim Lykam (Davenport), Rep. Mike Reasoner(Creston), and Rep. Dick Taylor (Cedar Rapids).