Political observers agree that a closely contested primary could be a blessing or a curse for a party that has been shut out of Terrace Hill for more than a decade. The chances of rebuilding voter registration numbers and producing a candidate that is battle tested are good, but a nasty primary fight also carries the risk of creating fissures within the party structure that may not heal before Election Day.

“You always run that risk,” said Jeff Angelo, a former Republican state senator from Creston. “Maybe in past years a negative primary would have hurt Republicans, but the Republicans have hit rock bottom and are ready to mobilize and get their candidates elected. I believe no matter what happens in the primary that Republicans are hungry for victory and will unify behind a candidate that has a legitimate shot at winning Terrace Hill. “

There is nothing that unifies people more than a common enemy, Angelo said, and for Republicans that unifying figure is Gov. Chet Culver.

“That’s why you see so many people eager to jump in the race,” he said. “The incumbent looks vulnerable. Everyone is looking at his favorable/unfavorable ratings, and that is creating a lot of excitement among Republicans and is creating a lot of candidates.”

The primary may get nasty, but in the end, whomever emerges to challenge Culver will be battle tested and better prepared for the difficult task of defeating an incumbent governor, said Tim Albrecht, a veteran Republican strategist and publisher of the conservative news aggregator TheBeanWalker.com.

“You’ll see a candidate who has been in the trenches and has done the campaigning to make them more competitive in the fall of 2010,” Albrecht said.

Democrats have faced similar questions about primary battles over the past few years, and each time, a tough primary seemed to strengthen the eventual nominee, Albrecht said. In 2006, a hard-fought three-way contest for the Democratic nomination made Culver a better general election candidate, he said. And in 2008, pundits predicted the prolonged presidential primary fight between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would result in a divided party and a weakened general election campaign.

“It worked out pretty well for President Obama,” Albrecht said. “All the dirty laundry was aired and there were no surprises in the fall. That’s what a tough primary fight can do.”

In an interview with the Cedar Rapid Gazette’s James Lynch, Republican Party of Iowa Executive Director Jeff Boeyink said another positive outcome to the primary process could be an increase in Republican voters, which could close the huge voter registration advantage Democrats have built in Iowa.

According to the Iowa secretary of state’s office, there are 114,642 more registered Democrats than Republicans. But Boeyink points out that Republicans held there largest registration edge after the 1994 GOP primary race between Gov. Terry Branstad and U.S. Rep. Fred Grandy.

With numerous candidates working to identify voters and mobilize them for the primary, the registration gap will be closed next year, Angelo said.

“The more candidates you have, the more excitement they generate,” Angelo said. “They have to identify voters. They have to identify Republican-leaning independents. They have to keep them excited and mobilized. They have to go out and do the most vigorous voter turnout effort. That’s how you win a primary, and that’s how you gin up voter registration.”

But with numerous candidates all working to break through the media clutter and get their message out, the likelihood that the GOP primary could get nasty is high. One candidate, Chris Rants, seems to already be the victim of campaign chicanery.

A Des Moines Register story last week accused Rants of leaving the Republican House Majority Fund with $200,000 in debt in 2008, something Rants flatly denies. Many believe the tip came from one of Rants’s GOP primary opponents, although the source of the story was never identified.

“If it’s a neck-and-neck race heading into primary day, the temptation is going to be there to introduce some surprise element into the campaign that puts you over the top,” Angelo said.

For every primary battle that strengthened the hand of a party, though, there is one that divided it and hurt the nominee going into the fall. Republicans need only look back to 2002 for evidence.

GOP candidate Doug Gross barely avoided a convention to determine the gubernatorial nomination that year, winning only 35.6 percent of the vote in a three-way race. (In order for a candidate to win the nomination cleanly without needing a convention, he or she must garner at least one-third of the votes in a primary.) The nearly two-thirds of Republican voters who didn’t support him never truly came home, observers said, and Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack was able to easily win a second term in office.

Conservative activist Bill Salier nearly toppled former U.S. Rep. Greg Ganske for the right to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin in 2002. Most observers believe the primary challenge weakened Ganske’s candidacy to the point where national Republican groups never really got involved and Harkin was able to handily win re-election.

Ultimately, it will be up to the candidate who emerges victorious to bring everyone back together for the common goal of winning Terrace Hill, Angelo said.

And if a candidate can’t weather a tough primary campaign, he shouldn’t be the party’s nominee anyway, Albrecht said.

“What you’ll find is, a lot of these candidates’ vulnerabilities will be brought to the surface during the primary,” Albrecht said. “That’s good; you don’t want an October surprise. If you can’t weather the primary, you can’t be successful in the general.”

Right now, the Republican gubernatorial field includes Bob Vander Plaats of Sioux City, state Rep. Chris Rants of Sioux City, state Rep. Rod Roberts of Carroll, state Sen. Jerry Behn of Boone, state Sen. Paul McKinley of Chariton, and Christian Fong of Cedar Rapids.

Angelo doesn’t believe there will be any new candidates jumping into the race, despite rumors that U.S. Rep. Steve King and former Gov. Branstad are considering campaigns. In fact, Angelo said the field would most likely be much smaller by the time voters go to the polls next June.

“There is only so much of a fundraising pie to go around, and that tends to cull the weak from the herd,” he said. “By the time you get to primary day, it is going to be clear who the frontrunners are. I don’t think you’ll see five candidates.”

However, Albrecht pointed out that a latecomer to the race would not be unprecedented. The party’s 2002 gubernatorial nominee, Doug Gross, didn’t jump into the race until January of that year.

“Because Gov. Culver is vulnerable, anyone with any gubernatorial aspirations is at least going to take a look at running,” he said. “So I wouldn’t be surprised if the field grew.”

David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said in an interview that the future of the same-sex marriage debate in Iowa would most likely follow in the footsteps of Massachusetts. In 2004, that state’s Supreme Court issued a ruling stating it was unconstitutional to allow only heterosexual couples to marry. Efforts to amend the constitution and ban same-sex marriage began immediately, and while at first it seemed inevitable, support dwindled and the effort stalled.

Redlawsk predicts a similar scenario.

“It’s hard to amend the constitution in Iowa. You can’t do it overnight,” he said. “My prediction is that this will be a lot like Massachusetts, in that there will be a reaction, some people will be unhappy, but over the time it takes to enact a constitutional amendment, people will simply become more accepting, especially as younger people get older.”

A new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released Thursday shows 60 percent of Iowans under age 30 support same-sex marriage, and three-fourths of Iowans under 30 favor some formal recognition of same-sex relationships. That indicates that passion objection could fade over time.

“There is a huge generational difference,” said Redlawsk, who oversees the poll. “For younger Iowans, this approaches a non-issue. They are not sitting there worrying about whether people who are gay can get married. I think that is very clear in the data.”

Democratic leadership in both legislative chambers seemed to close the door on amending the state’s constitution in a joint statement after the high court’s decision was made public. And on Thursday, even members of the Republican leadership agreed the issue is unlikely to surface during the final weeks of the 2009 legislative session.

But Democratic Gov. Chet Culver has previously said he would be willing to call a special session to “protect marriage between a man and a woman,” and Republicans have promised to hammer Democrats on the issue in 2010, when the House and governor’s mansion will be up for grabs.

“I think you’re going to see more tension between the governor and Democratic legislative leadership,” said Jeff Angelo, a former Republican state senator from Creston. “The governor has said he would call a session to deal with a verdict in this case and legislative leadership issued a statement lauding the decision.”

Angelo pointed to a Des Moines Register poll of legislators last year that showed 123 of 150 lawmakers said they believed marriage should only be between a man and a woman.

“You have a number of legislators who said ‘I believe marriage is between a man and a woman but I’m going to wait for the court to rule,’” he said. “Now, you’re going to pull that statement up and say ‘So, how are you going to vote now that we have a ruling.’ This issue certainly has traction in 2010.”

If Culver calls a special session, legislators will be put on the spot, Angelo said.

The effect same-sex marriage will have on 2010  legislative elections will be decided district by district across the state, Angelo said, so it’s unclear right now which party will have an advantage.

State Rep. Mary Mascher, an Iowa City Democrat, told blogger John Deeth that in previous years, Democrats have managed to pass bills that gave gay and lesbian students protection from bullying at school and civil rights protections to LGBT citizens.

“We passed those and no one got beat because of it,” Mascher said.

A more likely first step opponents will take will be to change Iowa’s marriage law to add a residency requirement. Several conservative activists are already calling for such a change, fearing same-sex couples from around the country will come to Iowa to be married, return home and challenge their state’s marriage laws. U.S. Rep. Steve King, a Kiron Republican, said Iowa has the potential to become a “gay marriage Mecca.”

Redlawsk said there is little doubt Republicans will make the court’s ruling an issue going forward. Whether it will get much traction is unclear.

“My sense is that it is really hard to get traction on issues that aren’t economic in nature,” he said. “There will be some backlash, but since we’re a year-and-a-half from voting, in the end I think it won’t matter as much. A majority of Iowans isn’t bothered by the idea of same-sex relationships.”

If a vote could be held tomorrow, opponents could “whip up a majority,” Redlawsk said. “But there is a lot of time for Iowans to get used to the idea of same-sex marriage.”

Time will be an effective tool for supporters of same-sex marriage, Angelo said.

“I think if you’re a proponent of gay marriage you’re going to take the next couple of years to demonstrate to people that no bigger societal damage is being done,” he said. “Whether that means there won’t be the votes to pass a constitutional amendment, I just don’t know.”

Overall, only one-third of Iowans polled say they are opposed to any form of same-sex relationships. The rest either favor same-sex marriage or civil unions, although the court’s ruling clearly eliminated civil unions as an option.

The poll, which was conducted prior to Friday’s ruling, also asked Iowans what the state should do if the Supreme Court upholds a constitutional right for same-sex couples to marry.

The question provided three options: Amend the Iowa constitution to ban same-sex relationships; amend it to ban same-sex marriage but allow civil unions; or accept the decision to allow gay marriage in Iowa.

Across the entire sample, 30.4 percent of Iowans favor accepting a ruling to allow same-sex marriage. One-fourth supports the creation of civil unions as an acceptable alternative. One-third believe the constitution should be amended to ban any same-sex relationship.

“This represents a very small increase in support for marriage following a court ruling, drawing mostly from respondents who generally prefer civil unions,” Redlawsk said.

Another poll, paid for by a conservative 527 organization founded in 2004 by former GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Gross, found that 60 percent of Iowans survey would be either “not very” or “not at all” willing to support a candidate who supports allowing same-sex couples to marry.

She was first elected to the Iowa House of Representatives in 1987 and served there for eight years. In 1994, Paul Pate was elected secretary of state, and Lundby won his vacated Iowa Senate seat in a special election. She served there until announcing her retirement in July 2007 to seek a spot on the newly expanded Linn County Board of Supervisors.

Lundby was the first woman to be a speaker pro tem, a majority leader, and a minority leader. When she ran for speaker of the Iowa House in the early 1990s, she lost by only one vote. But when asked about her accomplishments, Lundby would only smile and say she “got lucky.”

She related well with people, using skills she developed by working as a waitress, bartender and insurance saleswoman to eventually serve as co-chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Party, a member of the Linn County Republican Central Committee, and a staff assistant to then-U.S. Sen. Roger Jepsen.

“Mary understood that people always come before ideology,” said Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson, who first met Lundby in 1988 when he was a high school page at the statehouse.

“I remember coming onto the House floor and Mary was speaking and waving pieces of paper. She was simply giving both sides of the political aisle hell, saying that she wasn’t under the thumb of leadership. She looked at the paper and said, ‘Oh, this piece of paper says that I’m accountable to the voters in Iowa.’ That did it for me.”

During those early days in the Iowa House, Lundby unofficially formed a group of younger Republican legislators that met in the basement and began developing strategy for taking six additional House seats in 1990 and six more in 1992. The group, dubbed the “Burning Desire Club,” was met with skepticism by some of the older members.

“There was this one older Republican from western Iowa who thought — I suppose because of the name — that the Burning Desire Club was some sort of sex club,” Oleson remembered with a laugh.

Even after meeting the group’s goals and taking a majority in 1992 for the first time in more than a decade, however, Lundby was denied her bid for speaker of the House. She told Iowa Politics in 2007 that it was the moment in her political career that she’d rather forget.

“Some members told me I couldn’t be speaker because Iowa’s not ready for a woman speaker … in 1992,” she said.

Oleson, however, said she never did forget the events involving her failed ‘92 speaker bid.

“She had a list of the 16 people who had turned against her,” he said. “She kept that list and checked off the names one at a time. Only one escaped her wrath. He died, so Mary said he was off the hook.”

During a subsequent speaker of the House election, she flew from a convention back to Iowa for the sole purpose of casting the deciding vote against one of those who had turned against her.

“She knew he was going to run for speaker,” Oleson said. “She knew. That’s why she waited so long to announce that she was going to leave the House. She wanted to cast that vote against him before she left.”

Lundby changed little when she moved from the House to the Senate. Even as a freshman in that chamber, she continued to do the things she knew to be right and not necessarily what was expected of her.

“I’m not sure they knew what to make of me at first,” she said during an interview with Iowa Independent at the time of her retirement. “More importantly, the feeling was mutual. My style was so much different. I didn’t want to be in leadership so that I could dictate what those below me were doing or weren’t to do. I had a different vision of how things should work.”

Eventually, Lundby’s vision of inclusion and mass caucus participation won out, but her days in leadership were not always comfortable.

“They still don’t get me,” she said. “I’m sure there are some who are more than pleased to see me retiring. I wanted to keep discussions, even the most heated and cumbersome, civil. I don’t think it is good that everything has turned so partisan and crass. It’s not good for building partnerships — not with each other and not with the private sector.”

Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston, said Lundby’s drive for civil behavior in the Legislature is one of the things he will remember most.

“I hate it when people make ideological differences a personal difference,” he said. “Mary was widely known as a moderate, but it’s a real shame that she took so much heat for her viewpoints. There is not a finer person who has ever held a seat in the Iowa Legislature.”

Sen. Staci Appel, D-Ackworth, said Lundby taught her “the right way to be a senator.”

“This is such a big loss for me,” Appel said. “I’m losing a mentor. Mary was always willing to answer questions, despite the fact that I was on the opposite side of the aisle. When I had an opportunity to apply to a leadership program, Mary was one of the people who wrote a letter of recommendation for me.”

When Lundby was first diagnosed with cancer in 2005, she was only given a 15 percent chance to beat the disease. She underwent medical treatment, and she chugged a beer when she went into remission. She was minority leader in the Senate at that time, and Angelo was leading the effort for the Republican Senate campaigns. The two traveled the state together by car, an experience Angelo said forever changed him.

“God brings very few people into your life that really change you for the better,” he said. “Mary was one of those people. … Our trips together were one of the most amazing times of my life. She taught me the difference between the ‘big stuff’ and the ‘little stuff’ in life.”

Angelo said that people misunderstood Lundby when they described her as being only hard-nosed, gruff or politically unrelenting.

“She pursued everything in her life with passion,” he said and laughed, adding that she “simply had no patience for neutrality.

“When we were driving, she would demand that we stop at every state park, lake or wind turbine farm across the state. She would get out of the car and just stand and smile. She loved nature and Iowa itself. She was so optimistic about the future and environment.”

Angelo, who announced his retirement from the Iowa Senate last year, said he can only hope that the men and women he served with will say that they might have disagreed with him but that he is a “good guy.

“That’s what Mary was,” he added. “Not everyone agreed with her all the time. There were differences, as there will always be. But she was one of the good guys.”

Sen. Nancy Boettger, R-Harlan, said that Lundby was an inspiration to women, having “paved the way” for others to follow in her footsteps, but also that she was simply an inspiration.

“Mary was one of the most politically brilliant people I’ve ever met,” she said. “Everyone always appreciated her viewpoint. She was also one of the most articulate speakers in the Legislature. Everyone would stop what they were doing to listen when she spoke. She was simply a forceful woman, a fighter, and I was rooting that she’d beat this.”

Because of Lundby’s influence and mentoring, Appel said she was open to working with Boettger on legislation.

“She taught me that everybody has great ideas,” Appel said. “I learned to be open to listening and speaking with others. When I had the preschool bill, Sen. Boettger brought ideas that made the bill even better.”

Sen. Amanda Ragan, D-Mason City, described Lundby as a “character in all the good ways.

“Mary opened a door for women,” she said. “What Mary was able to accomplish because of her hard work and her tenacity gives everyone a new perspective on the opportunity for leadership in the Legislature. To accomplish those feats, you have to be strong. Mary was strong. You also don’t get to accomplish the things that Mary did without having people — family and friends — who are supportive of you and what you’re working toward.”

Ragan said speaking from the heart about Mary came easy, because Mary “was just who she was.

“She was a champion of whatever cause she believed in,” she said. “The environment comes most quickly to mind. She approached issues on the environment in a very thoughtful and progressive way. She was bright and clever and had a terrific political sense about her. This is a loss for a lot of people who came to know her.”

Oleson has been friends with Lundby for his entire adult life. Her endorsement was instrumental when he tossed his hat in the ring as a potential Linn County Supervisor, a seat that she had been seeking when her disease returned.

“She taught me loyalty,” he said. “You help your friends even when you know they can’t help you in return.

“Mary taught me that I have to know myself. She knew what she was saying and doing and she did the right thing — even when she knew it might cost her politically. The right thing isn’t always in the party platform.”

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Des Moines last Friday.

Langston, a Democrat, scouted the full field, arguably the deepest ever for her party in terms of resumes and star quality, before picking U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., as her candidate — a choice she made during a ride to the Cedar Rapids airport with Obama amid discussions of the state’s understated beauty.

She saw something within Obama that helped her to make what was a personal decision to support the first-term senator.

“As we were talking, we just became four people,” Langston said. “At that moment in time what I saw was that Senator Obama still had a piece of his humanity. Running for president and all the challenge and hoopla can really put you into a very unusual atmosphere.

“It can change you. I had at that moment, and I continue to have, a sense of Obama as a person. That’s also certainly true with (his wife) Michelle. There is a humanity that still exists within that family that has not been subverted by running for president.”

It’s that unflappable quality and connection to people that Langston believes helped Obama win the nomination.

John McCain speaks to a crowd in Le Mars during the Iowa caucuses. Immigration dominated that forum in northwest Iowa.

While insiders spent time recently thinking about what has made Obama’s campaign successful, most talk of the McCain campaign was more about its missteps than its successes.

Many see McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running-mate as a turning point in the election.

Former GOP gubernatorial candidate David Oman, a top staffer for Iowa’s last two Republican governors, says McCain would have been better served by picking former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

“I’ve thought a handful of times the past month that he would have helped, perhaps a lot, in energizing GOP base, appealing to folks deeply troubled by downturn and so-called bailout, and in several southern and border states now close,” Oman said.

He said that Palin has not benefited the Republican ticket.

“Look at the [Des Moines Register] Iowa Poll breakouts with 60 percent of people feeling she is not qualified to assume the presidency,” Oman said.  “Huckabee would have passed that test. Romney, too, though he would have cemented many peoples’ classic impressions of the GOP brand — wealth — and probably not turned around a single state, including Michigan.”

Oman said that if Obama is elected Tuesday he will have to remember where his journey initially received traction.

“It wasn’t in Pennsylvania, or many other states,” Oman said. “It was in Iowa, first.  Lack of success here followed by second in New Hampshire would have shut down his campaign for the nomination.”

Oman said Obama clearly will have higher priorities that need to be addressed before he can focus on a more specifically rural agenda.

“I suspect Obama will focus first on the mega problems of the economy, energy, and health care, not to mention national security with or without the incident [VP nominee Joe] Biden forecasted,” Oman said.

Former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Mike Peterson, now an executive with AT&T in St. Louis, Mo., says at this point, it seems as if the presidential race is all about margin of victory.

“I will be surprised if Obama receives fewer than 350 electoral votes,” Peterson said.

Peterson said he still believes that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would have made a stronger running mate for McCain than Palin.

In terms of governing following the election, Peterson said an Obama win is good for rural Iowa.

“I am told that Obama’s first legislative package will be an infrastructure bill,” Peterson said.  “Iowa’s seniority should be a plus there.”

Veteran Iowa writer Chuck Offenburger runs a popular Web site and churns out prolific articles for a variety of publications from a renovated farmhouse outside of Cooper in Greene County. He sees Obama as a stronger leader for rural Iowa than McCain.

“Rural Iowa will fare much better under Obama than it would have under McCain,” Offenburger, a Republican, said.  “Obama understands the Midwest. He understands agriculture and what a huge role ag will play in the new energy era. And he will never forget the huge role Iowans played in enabling his candidacy.”

On the eve of the election State Rep. Tom Schueller, D-Maquoketa, recalled the early days of the Iowa caucuses when he was receiving call after call from candidates.

“I supported Joe Biden in the caucus,” Schueller said. “I thought he would have done better. To be honest with you, I really blame the media for that. They picked up on who they thought was the front-runners and that’s who ended up being the front runners. The other ones didn’t get hardly an honorable mention. Those folks — Biden, (New Mexico Gov, Bill) Richardson and (Connecticut Sen. Chris) Dodd — had a lot of good things to say too.”

Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in Lexington, Ky., puts it flatly.

“I see no chance for McCain,” Cross said. “Hindsight is always 20/20. Romney would have brought the base around, though not stimulated crowds and volunteers like Palin. He would have been viewed as qualified, and could have probably made more coherent arguments than McCain, so the election would have been closer.

“But this is all a parlor game because McCain wasn’t about to pick someone he couldn’t get along with, and I agree with that approach. You have to think about governing, not just winning. Obama did that with Biden, an example of his better judgment.”

Down in southern Iowa, State Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston, says McCain has a chance when one looks at the internals in a lot of the state polls.

“Right now, both the Democratic base and the Republican base are fired up,” Angelo said.  “So you assume in a record turnout that the bases are cancelling each other — sorta like my wife and I — you then look at the number among if McCain can swing some of them and the undecideds in the battleground states, he pulls out the electoral win.   Obama was hoping for a blowout based on the participation of new and infrequent voters — but early returns indicate that the early voters are mostly the same voters who always vote early.”

Angelo said McCain’s selection of Palin brought passion to base and delivered a middle-class relevancy.

There is a reason that “Joe The Plumber” became a central figure in this campaign, Angelo said.

“With Palin and Joe’s involvement, McCain got his campaign groove back by realizing that there are a large group of middle class voters who didn’t believe their concerns were being addressed in the campaign,” Angelo said.  “Romney doesn’t have that power to harness the energy of those voters and get them to the polls. Palin does.  She’s ‘one of us.’  In short, I don’t think the race is close without Palin.”

Sarah Palin at a recent rally in Sioux City.

Offenburger thinks McCain’s problem wasn’t in choosing Palin, but in shackling her to a script and cocooning a natural campaigner.

“Let me admit that I still think Palin was a good choice, especially given where the McCain campaign was in August” Offenburger said  “And that leads me to what I think is the biggest mistake McCain made — letting his campaign staff mismanage Palin from the moment she said ‘yes.’  They should have let her talk one-on-one to every reporter, columnist and broadcaster who wanted to talk, instead of packaging her up for those huge exclusive interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric — under the glare of the brightest lights and widest audiences imaginable.  That was unfair to Palin.

“If the rest of the press corps had been getting frequent access to her immediately, one-on-one and in small gatherings, she would’ve learned quickly to relax and be herself.  I think she would have then shown people the knowledge, ability, personality and savviness that have helped her become governor of a huge, complex and important state.  By the way, I think she would do very well in the kind of retail politics that the Iowa caucuses require.”

For his part, Schueller said Obama has picked a running mate who understands the middle class.

“Look at how he gets to work everyday and look at what he’s done since he’s been there,” Schueller said. “Second of all, Obama has some Midwest roots, being from Illinois and all. So, he’s going to understand our needs a little better than McCain ever would or could. And he’s going to have a better grasp of agriculture than McCain ever would or could. That’s been reflected in Obama’s campaigning. McCain’s record reflects what he thinks about ethanol, renewable energy and so-forth.”

Langston said she knew McCain was in trouble when she saw him speak during the caucus campaign season at a Cedar Rapids Rotary Club meeting.

“That’s a rather large group of over 200 significant business people,” Langston said. “Really, [McCain’s] presentation was not good. By my estimation, it was appallingly bad. While the campaign was talking about having no money, they came into the meeting with drapes and curtains and tele-prompters. I thought, ‘Oh my.’ I mean if you can’t stand up in front of an Iowa Rotary and give a speech without all of this.”

While they differ on projections and advice for the candidates, political analysts with rural ties contacted by the Iowa Independent agree on one point: this is a defining political night for the nation.

Gov. Sarah Palin

Al Cross, the director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues, said Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden, a U.S. senator from Delaware, may be better known in Iowa, but in the country as a whole, Palin, although only a first-term Alaska governor, is now better known.

“The possibilities for Palin encompass almost the whole spectrum,” says Cross. “She’s supposed to be a quick study, and proved to be a good debater in Alaska when she had the facts at her command, so she could ju-jitsu the recent bad press on her and beat the expectations game. Also, this will be a calm, controlled situation, unlike those that produced the slips.”

But there’s no way Palin can bone up on everything, Cross added from his office in Lexington, Ky.

“Some of the issues can be relatively arcane so she could also fall all over herself like she did with Katie Couric,” Cross said. “This will be a high-wire act and draw a huge audience.”

Over in Greene County, outside of Cooper, veteran Iowa observer and writer Chuck Offenburger, a Republican, said Palin needs to have the performance of her life.

“Not that Sarah Palin needs one more bit of pressure on her, but I think this vice-presidential debate may well be a last stand for the Republican ticket, as far as rural America is concerned,” Offenburger said  “She must re-convince us of her legitimacy as a running mate, after her disastrous interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric.  When John McCain, in last Friday night’s debate, said so matter-of-factly that he’d ‘eliminate ethanol subsidies,’ I could sense a lot of Republicans across the Farm Belt saying, ‘That’s the last straw.’  If Palin bombs Thursday night, that would really seal the deal.”

Offenburger said Palin should come out swinging tonight, maintain her confidence and attempt to convince Americans that she is indeed the “new energy,” as she’s said.

“I also think she should make a strong stand with her pro-life position, and challenge Biden on his views on abortion and those of Obama,” Offenburger said. “Also, she should separate herself from the Bush administration and the Republican past, and that it’s time for mavericks like her to re-shape the GOP.”

State Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston, says Democrats underestimate Palin at their own peril. He believes she is the victim of a generalized liberal media caricature.

“What I have found amazing is that the national media doesn’t let the facts get in the way of their master narrative,” Angelo said.  “We’ve been told that Palin is an embarrassment and that the economic crisis hurts McCain.  Yet, in today’s new ABC poll, McCain has taken the lead among independents and has actually gained on Obama in the last week.   This is the problem with commentary being put forward as objective news.”

In Storm Lake, Art Cullen, the progressive co-owner/editor of The Storm Lake Times, who endorsed Biden for the presidency during the Iowa caucuses, said most Americans who care already understand that Biden is an expert on foreign affairs and Palin is not.

“So I think Biden needs to undermine Palin at her supposed strength — energy policy,” Cullen said. “Rural Iowans would like to hear Biden embrace renewable energy in all its forms. I doubt that Palin knows what the wind energy production tax credit is, or what percentage of the corn acreage goes to ethanol production. Biden should know. He should talk about Obama’s plan to invest $150 billion in renewable energy research and deployment as a domestic economic stimulus and as a foreign policy foil.”

Se. Joe Biden

There should be no gender-based double-standard in the debate, Cullen added.

“I don’t think that Biden should go soft on her because she is a woman,” Cullen said. “If she acts like a fool, Biden should pounce on it. But I have never won a debate, much less an election.”

Republican insider David Oman, a former GOP candidate for governor, said Biden is smart enough to avoid being condescending toward Palin.

“Senator Biden is well known to two generations of Iowans from running for the White House in 1987-1988 and this last caucus cycle, 20 years later,” said Oman, a Des Moines businessman.  “He has made friends in Dubuque and Carroll Counties and in Iowa’s larger cities where there are many voters who are Roman Catholic.”

Biden is a  Catholic.

Oman said the debate time rules will likely help with Biden’s need for brevity.

The real questions, Oman said, are about Palin.

“Sarah Palin can read a teleprompter and work a rope line well — both with energy and personality,” Oman said. “Can she answer philosophical questions beyond talking about her own life experiences? Can she answer political questions beyond relating Alaska anecdotes? Can she articulate an understanding of America’s security, economic, and social challenges?”

Oman said Palin may benefit from low expectations, but he questions whether  “clearing a low bar really wins votes.”

“I remember the tried- and-true gasoline ad from my childhood: ‘You expect more from Standard, and you get it.’” Oman said. “Americans expect more from nominees for the two highest offices in the land.”

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Democrats and Republicans praised the selection of a woman to run on the ticket with the Arizona senator, but that’s where the similarities end.

“There has been a definite enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Obama supporters,” said Republican state Sen. Jeff Angelo. “From talking to people today, suddenly there is passion for the McCain campaign that was definitely lacking before. I think [choosing Palin] will shake up the race.”

Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley called Palin a candidate who doesn’t just talk change, “she is change.”

“She’s stood for principle over party and has record-breaking support in her state for it. She’s demonstrated strength of character when faced with adversity,” he said. “It’s the kind of situation where the more you learn, the more you like and respect her.”

Democrats were not nearly as enthusiastic about the choice.

“While Gov. Palin supports big oil, Joe Biden shares Barack Obama’s dreams of energy independence,” Gov. Chet Culver said in a statement. “And while Sarah Palin opposes a woman’s right to make her own health care choices, Joe Biden has a long history of supporting women’s rights. It is clear that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be the best people to lead our nation forward.”

Former Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack said McCain’s pick was “puzzling” and showed he is willing to put ideology before country.

“He chose the governor of Alaska, who placates the base of the Republican party and the archconservative agenda of the Republican party,” he said. “Sen. McCain’s selection of the governor of Alaska also shows he is clearly committed to continuing the failed Bush energy agenda. This agenda of more of the same when it comes to energy is offensive to those of us who have worked so hard to expand America’s opportunities related to home-grown renewable energy.”

Andy McGuire, a former Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor and a Hillary Clinton supporter, told Des Moines CBS affiliate KCCI that she applauds the Republicans for putting a woman on the ticket but she can’t see her having appeal to Clinton voters.

“On the issues of choice, on the issues of the economy, she’s just now where we are. So, even though I applaud having a woman at this level and I think other Hillary Clinton supporter would, I don’t think she’s right on the issues,” McGuire said.

While Republicans hope Palin can persuade Clinton supporters who don’t want to vote for Obama to come to their side, the consensus among observers is that Palin’s major effect will be to help McCain appeal to social conservatives around the nation, a group that has been suspicious of him in the past.

Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, told The Des Moines Register that Palin would prompt social conservatives in Iowa who have been inactive this year to get involved in McCain’s campaign.

“I think it’s a phenomenal choice to mobilize the base,” said Scheffler told the paper. “It’s going to be the ingredient to help McCain pull this out.”

The response to the choice among Iowa media was also mixed. Sioux City Journal columnist Bret Hayworth said he believes McCain has changed the game by picking Palin.

Seriously, I think the election is his to lose now. Reaction to her pick has been overwhelmingly (universally?) positive from Republicans, and Palin definitely has the ability to pull in independents — and some disgruntled Hillary Democratic supporters.

But Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen felt the choice undercuts the “lack of experience” attack McCain has been using on Barack Obama while accentuating McCain’s age.

Yepsen goes on to call Palin’s selection an “obvious pander,” with McCain using the VP pick to go after Hillary Clinton supporters and social conservatives in one fell swoop.

But the second pander could cancel the first. Many of the women who are disappointed Hillary Clinton isn’t the Democratic nominee are pro-choice. It’s doubtful they will set aside their views on reproductive rights just because Palin is a woman.

Angelo, a southwest Iowan who represents the largest senate district in the Hawkeye State, says Culver’s Condition of The State speech seems in desperate need of a reality check — which Angelo expects the legislature to provide.

“The Governor continues to prioritize government spending over protecting the budgets of working class families,” Angelo said. “At a time when families say their biggest concern is the cost of living–the cost of gas, heating their houses, their health care, etc, the Governor’s budget contains $90 million in tax increases.  And he failed to even talk about the projected $500 million increase in property taxes that will occur in Iowa over the next five years.”

According to Angelo, Culver is proposing a 6 percent increase in spending when revenues are coming in at a historical average of 3.3 percent.

“That’s a bill our kids and grandkids will eventually need to pay,” Angelo said. “So, it looks like its up to legislators to lead on the issues that matter most to Iowans.”
 

Cityview’s Civic Skinny speculates that Angelo won’t run, but he tells Iowa Independent that’s just “people chatting.”

“I just don’t think  too much about it at this particular point,” said Angelo.

Angelo, the state co-chairman of Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign, says much of the speculation about the Creston Republican’s political future is connected to his Dec. 26 wedding. He is marrying a woman from Ames, Tara van Brederode. The couple plan to split time in Ames and Creston as both have children in the respective school systems.

Moreover, the Craig matter shows Republicans the edge-of-the-cliff potential with giving personal values issues top billing in a national party agenda. One mistake (a la Craig) and the dominoes fall, says Angelo.

“We set ourselves up for that when we put socially conservative issues out front,” Angelo tells Iowa Independent. “Human beings will let you down.”

But, says Angelo, the free market won’t. The GOP should get back to its roots, he said.

Angelo, 42, an Evangelical Christian who attends the Abundant Family Life Church in Creston and is a member of the Iowa Christian Alliance, serves as GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani’s Iowa campaign co-chairman.

In a 45-minute conversation today with Iowa Independent, the Creston Republican said that the developing Craig episode reveals how desperately his party needs a serious history primer.

“We’re forgetting the lesson of Ronald Reagan,” Angelo said, adding that a message of fiscal conservatism blended with national defense is a winning approach that “Rudy Giuliani gets right.”

“I think we’ve gotten off track,” Angelo said. “I think we need to return to the message that people expect to hear (from Republicans).”

This doesn’t mean Republicans should be frightened from serious debates on matters like gay marriage, he adds.

Angelo opposes gay marriage and is the lead sponsor of a measure in the Iowa Senate that would enshrine marriage as being between a man and a woman. Angelo said he’s prepared to argue that sociological evidence proves a traditional family structure is best for children.

“I do think it’s A-OK to talk about the structure and makeup of families,” Angelo said. “In the name of political correctness I can’t ignore that.”

But he urges the GOP to be careful and compassionate in these debates. That’s not always the case as a “major portion” of the GOP political strategy has been “targeting gays,” Angelo said.

“There is a second (GOP) agenda running here which I think is anti-person,” Angelo said.

That agenda is politically perilous in times when personal lives of public figures are under increasing scrutiny.

Angelo said he fully expects Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee and that with her high negatives she’s vulnerable, and actually the underdog, unless the GOP implodes with Mark Foley- and Larry Craig-type scandals that Angelo sees knocking down many candidates by 10 points or more in the polls simply on a disgust factor.

And with Craig, the issue in the minds of voters is as much credibility and abuse of power as it is alleged lurid sexual encounters, Angelo said.

“I think there is nothing worse in the voters' mind than believing that a political party has become arrogant to the point where it allows corruption," Angelo said.

On an intriguing blog — God, Politics and Rock ‘n’ Roll — that Angelo recently launched with his liberal Democrat fiancée, the Creston Republican made the following observations in a post about Larry Craig:

Let's use a football analogy: the primary season is like pre-season in the NFL. It's time to get the GOP team into championship shape–and that means it's time to make some cuts.

When the Mark Foley scandal hit in 2006, Republican pollsters across the country reported that GOP candidates dropped TEN POINTS EACH in their individual races. Independents and other persuadables left Republican candidates in droves–the GOP "brand" suffered huge damage. Voters don't tolerate scandal associated with arrogance and every Republican candidate suffered.

On to 2008: the election currently is for the Republicans to lose, not for Democrats to win. Democrats are about to nominate a presidential candidate who has the highest negatives in the primary. However, Republicans are in danger of responding with either a candidate with equally high negatives or a candidate who is already stumbling badly even before he declares.

The upcoming Petraeus report will show that we are making progress in our counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq. Already, liberal bloggers are debating how to respond to a positive report: either by calling the General a liar or responding that progress is too slow. The Democratic Congress is suffering through historic low approval ratings; because their (successful) 2006 platform was anti-Republican, they failed to reach consensus on any agenda besides raising the minimum wage–and voters don't tolerate inaction.

But if the GOP continues to deal with revelations of scandal, the GOP brand won't recover and the party will squander an opportunity to put out a proactive agenda and act upon it. Our Democratic friends will pull out the "had enough?" bumper stickers for 2008 and that WILL be enough to make it another nightmare cycle for the Grand Ol' Party.

That said, Angelo, who has emphasized what he thinks is Rudy’s strength in a crisis in previous interviews with Iowa Independent, admitted he was intrigued with the prospect of one famous Republican who was in Ames: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Iowa Independent spotted Angelo getting a copy of Newt’s “Winning The Future” signed and asked the southwest Iowan about it.

If Newt were in the presidential race instead of pushing another one of his books (which appeared to be the most popular at the Hilton grounds Saturday as I saw no one carrying around Romney’s book), Angelo said he might consider the human fountain of ideas (Georgian Gingrich) as a White House candidate.

“I’d give it serious consideration,” Angelo said.

Just a few tents away, near the site of California Congressman Duncan Hunter’s ego exercise (errr, White House campaign), State Sen. Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, (who was just at the Hunter camp to get the homemade ice cream) said he is still none-too-pleased with the conspicuous absence of Rudy and the Arizona war hero.

Kettering said he heard complaints from no-show Sen. John McCain of Arizona about the Straw Poll being nothing more than a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party.

“My reaction was, ‘Yes it is … where are you?’” Kettering said.

In an earlier interview Kettering had expressed some interest in Romney but the Lake View pol was coy about his vote today. Kettering did say he would be meeting in coming days with former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn.