Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at 85 cents, down less than a penny in the last two weeks. The 85 cent price means traders give the Democratic ticket an 85 percent chance of winning. Republican John McCain’s shares are selling for 15.3 cents. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

Winner Take All market

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 54.7 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 47 cents.

In other markets, traders overwhelmingly predict increased Democratic majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate, but believe that the Minnesota U.S. Senate race is getting closer. Democrat Al Franken has a narrow edge over GOP incumbent Norm Coleman.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at nearly 86 cents, meaning traders give the Democratic ticket a 86 percent chance of winning. John McCain’s shares are selling for just under 15 cents. Those levels have been steady for the past week. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 58 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 46.6 cents.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

Tuesday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at 77 cents, meaning traders give the Democratic ticket a 77 percent chance of winning. That’s up 10 cents since the first presidential debate, and more than 20 cents in the last month. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 54.3 cents Tuesday morning, and Republican John McCain was selling at 47.4 cents.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

At 9 a.m. Monday, McCain’s shares were trading for 32 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All presidential market, meaning traders give the McCain-Palin ticket only 32 percent chance of winning. On Friday, before the debate, McCain was trading at 37 cents.

Shares for the Democratic Obama-Biden ticket were at 67 cents Monday, up from 62 cents Friday. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

In the Vote Share market, which pays a penny per percentage point, McCain was selling for 47.3 cents this morning, which means investors believe he will receive 47.3 percent of the two-party popular vote in November. Obama was selling for 53.8 cents on the Vote Share market. Shares in the Vote Share market pay in proportion to the percentage.

At 9 a.m. Friday, Barack Obama’s shares were trading for 58.5 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All presidential market, meaning traders give Obama and Joe Biden a 58.5 percent chance of winning. John McCain was trading for 41.9 cents. Before the two conventions, the market was at 60 cents for Obama and 40 cents for McCain. In the Winner Take All market, winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

In the Vote Share market, which pays a penny per percentage point, Obama was trading for 53.9 cents Friday, which means traders believe he will get 53.9 percent of the popular vote. Before the Democratic convention Obama was trading at 52.8 cents. McCain was down to 47.1 cents Friday, from the 49.5 percent he was trading at when the DNC started.

In other markets, traders predict an increase in Democratic control of both the U.S. Senate and House by a 90 percent margin. But in the one race-specific market, the Minnesota Senate race, traders expect Republican incumbent Norm Coleman to defeat Democratic challenger Al Franken.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

The IEM has added three Congressional markets. In the first two, traders can buy and sell contracts that will predict whether the Democrats will gain seats in each of the Senate and House, maintain its current number of seats, or lose seats to the Republicans.

In the third market, traders can buy and sell contracts based on overall control of Congress: Democratic or Republican control of both houses or split control.

A fourth new market looks at Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and the Democratic challenger, comedian Al Franken.

The IEM has two presidential election markets: a winner-take-all market and a percentage market. The winner-take-all market predicts odds of victory. The vote share market predicts the margin of victory, and pays out based on that percentage; a 55 percent share yields 55 cents.

Recent trading in the winner-take-all market predicts an Obama victory is 60 percent likely. Trading has been very light in the vote share market, but the most recent trades indicate that the margin will be within two percent.

The IEM has two general election markets: a winner-take-all market and a percentage market. The winner-take-all market predicts odds of victory.

Obama leads this market at 61.9 cents. That means traders give him a 62 percent chance of winning.

The vote share market predicts the margin of victory, and pays out based on that percentage; a 55 percent share yields 55 cents. Volume so far is low, but Obama was trading at 52.7 cents, predicting a 53 percent share of the popular vote.

At midnight, as Hillary Clinton rolled up a 67 percent to 26 percent win, Obama’s IEM shares were trading at 89.9 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 90 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee.That price has wavered less than a cent in the past week, and is settling into the 90 percent range typically seen on the IEM for presumptive nominees.

Hillary Clinton shares were trading for 7.1 cents, down from 8.9 cents at the end of Monday.

Obama has held the lead in the IEM Democratic nomination since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. In the general election winner-take-all market, the Democrats hold a 58 percent to 42 percent lead over the Republican candidate.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

As of 9:00 Wednesday morning, Obama shares were trading at 87 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 87 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. That’s up from 72 cents at the end of the day Monday.

Hillary Clinton shares were trading for 9 cents, down from 26 cents at the end of Monday.

The dramatic price shifts began at 7:30 Tuesday night, when networks called North Carolina for Obama at the moment the polls closed.

Obama has held the lead in the IEM since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

As of 9:00 Monday morning, Obama shares were trading at 75 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 75 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee.  Clinton shares were going for 21 cents. Obama has held the lead since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

The winner-take-all general election market has the Democratic nominee, once there is one, leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, 54 cents to 45.5 cents.