Ballot challenge programs are a relatively new feature to Iowa politics. The number of challenged and provisional ballots have risen dramatically since 2000, as the Democratic Party has ramped up its absentee voter program to the point where some counties are now seeing nearly half their ballots voted before Election Day.

As one of the closest states in the nation at the presidential level, and one of only three states to switch sides between 2000 and 2004, efforts on the margins can make the difference. In heavily Democratic Johnson County, where Republicans spearheaded a big challenge drive in the last presidential election, the number of provisional ballots counted skyrocketed from 71 in 2000 to 1,358 in 2004.  The 2004 provisionals were more Democratic than any precinct in Johnson County — a whopping 77 percent for John Kerry and only 22 percent for Bush. More importantly, another 600 or so challenges were upheld. Those ballots were never counted, but likely had a similar margin.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the ballot challenges cost Kerry a net 300 to 350 votes.  That’s significant, considering that Al Gore’s 2000 statewide margin was about 4,000 votes, and George Bush won Iowa by about 10,000 in 2004.

In the changes approved by the Democratic-controlled trifecta of House, Senate, and Governor Culver, false challenges are now an aggravated misdemeanor.  Only a registered voter in the county can make a challenge, and the challenger must provide their name, signature, address and phone number. Any challenge lacking that information will be rejected.

Some challenges are ruled out entirely. Blanket challenges to whole categories of voters are not allowed, and instead each challenge must be made to an individual voter. And the new election day registration law is covered; a person reporting a change of address at the polls or who is registering on Election Day cannot be challenged on the basis of not being a resident at the address where they are registered to vote.

State law defines a voter’s residence as the place to which they intend to return. College students can register at the dorm or at their parents’ houses. Likewise, flooded voters may either maintain their voting address at their damaged home while it is being repaired, or re-register at their temporary address.  The key seems to be voter intent, realistic or not. “I would say that if their house was demolished or deemed uninhabitable, they should change their residential address,” said Linn County deputy auditor Tim Box. In any case, he advises voters to list a current mailing address so that voter cards, absentee ballots, and other mailings can get through.

The residence address matters because it may place voters in different districts. While Iowa’s congressional districts do not cross county lines, state legislative districts are smaller than urban counties.  Linn County includes all or part of seven legislative districts, and is split into five county supervisor districts under a new reorganization plan that kicks in this fall.

The Linn County auditor’s office itself was in the flood zone and is at a temporary site at the Westdale Mall. Box says the office lost a couple weeks of preparation for the presidential election, but is now catching up on the registration forms and absentee requests that are already flowing in from political party staffers. “We still have some files and supplies to bring over from our evacuated building,” said Box. “Our computer network is not as fast or reliable here in the mall, so we are not as efficient as we were before the flood.” Box says the auditor’s office does not yet have access to a fax machine, and phones have been temporarily routed to cell phones.

As many as eleven of Linn County’s 87 polling places were flood damaged. The county is considering using a new “voting center” provision of state law to combine polling places for the Sept. 9 school election. The new law only allows vote centers for city and school elections, and not general elections.

The results aren’t final on election night. That’s both a formality and a reality.The formality is the canvass of votes, usually about a week after the election. The auditor presents the numbers to the county Board of Supervisors, and after some cursory level of review the Board certifies the results. Any recount request would happen after the canvass, though candidates could certainly announce their intentions sooner. Indeed, Peter Teahen campaign manager Wes Enos said a recount request is “very likely” in the 2nd District, where Teahen trails Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 109 votes. The recount request deadline is 5:00 Friday, June 13.

That deadline is important in the senate race, where both the close margin and the percentage are at issue. George Eichhorn doesn’t have to surpass Christopher Reed. He only needs Reed to drop below 35 percent. That would make the nomination inconclusive and force the nomination to a statewide convention — and the state Republican convention just happens to be Saturday, June 14. That turnaround is so fast that the GOP would probably need to reconvene another convention, as a recount could not be completed literally overnight.

As of this writing, Reed has 35.29 percent of the vote and a 413 vote lead over Eichhorn. In the 2nd Congressional District, where 35 percent is not an issue, Mariannette Miller-Meeks is up 109 over Peter Teahen.

As of this writing?

The reality is that all the votes aren’t counted yet. The numbers from polling places rarely change after election day. It’s absentees and provisionals that move.

Provisional ballots give a voter who isn’t on the rolls for one reason or another a chance to cast a ballot and have their problem researched. Provisional ballot boards meet today to determine whether those should be counted.  With election day voter registration now in effect, there are likely to be fewer provisionals than in past years. A typical case would be someone who requested an absentee ballot, but went to the polls instead, and didn’t have the unvoted absentee to turn in. They would cast a provisional, and the day after the election the auditor’s office would double check to make sure the absentee hadn’t been sent in.

Absentee ballots don’t have to be to your auditor’s office when the polls close. They have to be postmarked by the day before the election, but can still be counted if they arrive in the mail later. For this election, the deadline is noon Monday, June 9.

Most of the ballots that haven’t come back yet are from overseas. There have been more of those ballots in recent years thanks to the 2002 “Help” America Vote Act (HAVA), the “fix everything that went wrong in Florida” law.

Prior to 2002, overseas and military voters had to file a new request for ballots each calendar year. (Regular voters need to request absentees separately for each election.) But under HAVA and the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), requests from the troops and expatriates are good through the next two general elections.

This means people who sign up intending to vote for president will, one day in April or early May, get an unexpected surprise in their mailbox — a ballot full of little known U.S. Senate challengers. And a lot of those ballots, on which George Eichhorn and Peter Teahen are placing their hopes, are in trash cans overseas.

If things do get to a recount, the chances of reversal are slim. Just under 17,000 votes were cast in the 2nd Congressional District Race. In a 2002 state senate recount that had just over 17,000 votes cast, the final margin shifted by only three votes from the canvass.

If no candidate gets 35 percent, the party has to hold a convention to choose a nominee, and that’s a realistic possibility in one Iowa congressional race.The prospect of a convention was a hot topic in Democratic circles in early 2006, and Ed Fallon’s gubernatorial campaign made a big effort to elect delegates at precinct caucuses and county conventions. But the convention talk cooled after Patty Judge left the race to form a ticket with eventual nominee Chet Culver, who won a four-way race (don’t forget Sal Mohamed) with 39.1 percent.

Even in a three-way race, a convention is a possibility if the math breaks just right. The Republicans came within 1 percent of a statewide convention for governor in 2002, when the three candidates all bunched up in the 30 percentile. Doug Gross emerged as the nominee, with only 35.6 percent.

That same year, Republicans actually went to a convention for the 5th Congressional District. Four strong candidates competed in the brand-new, solidly Republican district, and they landed between 21 and 31 percent each. Steve King landed at the top of that heap, and then turned that lead into a convention win. The rest is history.

Who attends a convention depends on what level of office is involved. For legislative seats, it’s county central committee members, with votes weighted by the size and party strength of each precinct. County offices are nominated by a county convention, made up of the precinct delegates elected at the Jan. 3 caucuses. Congressional district and state conventions are made up of delegates elected at the March county conventions.

The likeliest prospect for a convention is the Democratic race in the 4th Congressional District, with four candidates seeking the nomination. Republicans have two major three-candidate races: the U.S. Senate race and the 2nd Congressional District.

Prospects also exist for conventions in local contests. The definition of percentage is less than straightforward in elections for more than one seat, such as at-large county supervisor contests. To determine the 35 percent threshold in these races, the Code of Iowa specifies a “percentage of votes” method. To get at this number add up all the votes cast for all the candidates, including write-ins. Then divide it by the number of seats available.

For example, look at the 2004 Democratic supervisor race in Johnson County. Eight candidates were running for three seats, and a total of 20,905 votes were cast. Divide that by three, and the baseline for calculating percentage is 6,969.

Johnson County Supervisors, 2004 Democratic Primary	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Terrence Neuzil	5,060	72.6%	54.4%	24.2%
Pat Harney	4,627	66.4%	49.7%	22.1%
Rod Sullivan	3,187	45.7%	34.3%	15.2%
Mike O’Donnell	3,060	43.9%	32.9%	14.6%
Rick Dvorak	1,998	28.7%	21.5%	9.6%
John Schneider	1,339	19.2%	14.4%	6.4%
Julie Gilmere	1,134	16.3%	12.2%	5.4%
James Knapp	446	6.4%	4.8%	2.1%
write in	54	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

This formula does not factor in the common dynamic of under-voting or “bullet voting,” in which supporters of one candidate don’t use all their votes in a vote for two or vote for three race. Instead, bullet voters vote only for their favorite candidate. You can’t use both, or all three, of your votes on that candidate, but you don’t have to use all of your votes. It’s a common campaign tactic, but one that’s usually done sotto voce so as not to alienate supporters of other candidates. If you want to crunch some math, add up the total votes cast for all candidates plus write-ins, then divide it by the number of voters. This will give you a “votes per candidate” number, illustrating how many people cast some sort of bullet vote. In our 2004 sample race, the 20,905 votes were cast by 9,305 voters, meaning the average voter only cast 2.25 votes for supervisor out of a possible three.

Calculating percentage of voters, by dividing the candidate’s results by the total number of voters, produces a lower percentage but provides a more reliable assessment of how many people supported a candidate. Another common, misleading method in a vote in a two-or-three race is to add up all the votes and divide each candidate’s vote by the grand total. This is often seen on local TV and produces seeming paradoxes like candidates winning with 17 percent.

Another seeming paradox happens in a race where four candidates are competing for three seats. It’s possible for a candidate to win support from a majority of voters, yet finish in last place, as in this 2001 Coralville contest. Over half of the voters supported Bream, yet he drew the least support and lost.

Coralville City Council, 2001	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Henry Herwig	744	80.0%	70.4%	26.7%
Dave Jacoby	732	78.7%	69.3%	26.2%
Tom Gill	682	73.3%	64.5%	24.5%
Bob Bream	614	66.0%	58.1%	22.0%
write in	17	1.8%	1.6%	0.6%

]]> http://iowaindependent.com/2383/primaries-by-the-percentages/feed 0 http://iowaindependent.com/2295/elvis-makes-a-comeback-some-voter-cards-re-sent http://iowaindependent.com/2295/elvis-makes-a-comeback-some-voter-cards-re-sent#comments Wed, 07 May 2008 12:05:21 +0000 John Deeth http://iowaindependent.com/2295/elvis-makes-a-comeback-some-voter-cards-re-sent Part of an annual voter mailing from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office has been re-sent. Errors in a postal bar code were causing some cards to incorrectly get the Elvis treatment — return to sender, address unknown.Under the 1993 Motor Voter law, states are required to compare the post office’s National Change of Address (NCOA) list to the voter files. If people have moved but not re-registered, cards are sent to both their old and new addresses. The return address on the card is the voter’s county auditor. If a card mailed to the voter’s new address gets Elvised (return to sender), the voter is placed on an inactive status and would have to show ID or re-register before voting.

Iowa started mailing cards in mid-April this year. Soon after the cards hit the mail,
“we found out that there was a printing error on some of the moved within county cards mailed to the voter’s new address,” said Sarah Reisetter of the secretary of state’s office. “The barcode printed underneath the delivery address on these cards by the printer was actually the barcode for the voter’s old address.”

Reisetter said cards mailed to the voter’s old address and to addresses outside the county where the voters were registered were correct.

“When we discovered the problem, the printer immediately halted printing any more within county move cards,” said Reisetter. “Many of the post offices manually sorted the cards and delivered them to the new address printed on the card despite the barcoding problem, however some of the cards were returned to the county commissioners as undeliverable.”

Reisetter said printing was halted, and a second set of cards were sent to the new, moved within county addresses. The re-sent cards are a distinctive yellow, rather than white like the original mailing. “We did not want voters inactivated in error due to this issue,” she said, adding, “Needless to say, I am now able to read postal barcodes!”

But the delegation from Iowa, the newest same-day registration state, is not united, with Rep. Steve King voicing his opposition.Harkin is cosponsoring Senate Bill 2959, first offered by Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana has also co-sponsored the bill.

All four co-sponsors are Democrats from states with election-day voter registration. The issue has a long partisan history. A Democratic Iowa legislature passed election-day registration in the 1980s, but Republican Gov. Terry Branstad vetoed the bill. When Democrats took over the state government trifecta of House, Senate, and governor in the 2006 election, same-day registration was high on the priority list for the 2007 session.

The law took effect Jan. 1 of this year and faces its first major test in the June 3 primary. The largest election to use the procedure thus far was last week’s Polk County special election, where a $132 million courthouse bond was defeated. Polk County Auditor Jamie Fitzgerald told the Des Moines Register that only 20 or 30 voters, out of more than 31,000, used the election-day registration procedure.

Wisconsin and Minnesota have both had same-day registration for three decades. “Same-day registration works. It encourages people to be engaged and interested in the issues facing our country,” said Klobuchar. “This bill gives a voice to every American who wants to vote.”

“There are plenty of constitutional reasons why it’s a bad idea,” said King, arguing that a national bill would violate the principle of federalism and invite voter fraud.

“The argument is Republicans are opposed to things that make it easier to vote,” King said. “No, we’re opposed to things that erode the integrity of the people who are legitimate voters.”

Iowa has one of the longest early voting periods in the nation, and that has changed the state’s political landscape since the law change in 1990 that allowed any Iowan to vote early for any reason. In effect, election day is now nearly six weeks long.Before 1990, when voters had to have a notarized reason such as a medical excuse or out of town business on election day, Iowa’s absentee rate was down around 5 percent. Now, in general elections, it’s closer to 25 percent, and approaches 50 percent in some counties.

Those high absentee rates in general elections are driven by political party efforts, mostly by Democrats. Early voting in primaries isn’t usually that heavy, but a well organized campaign can get its votes in the bank before election day.

If your mail gets the Elvis treatment — return to sender, address unknown — you get put on what’s called “inactive” status. Inactive voters have to show ID to vote or get off the inactive list. After two general elections on the inactive list, then voters can be deleted. To delete you sooner than that, county auditors need official notice from your new community, proof that you’re dead, or your signature.

The annual National Change of Address (NCOA) mailing is a provision of Motor Voter that’s designed to help clean up the voter files by giving voters an extra opportunity to update their addresses — or get Elvised.

Each year, the Secretary of State’s office gets the U.S. Postal Service’s NCOA database and cross-references it with the state voter file to find people who have moved, but not updated their voter registration yet. They update the voter’s address to the new address reported by the Post Office, then mail cards to both the voter’s old and new addresses. The return address is the local county auditor for the old address where they’re registered. (Auditors used to send out the mailing themselves until a couple years ago, when the statewide voter registration system went on line.)  The cards include a place for the voter to sign and confirm the new address.

The tricky part starts when the cards start coming back to the auditors. NCOA cards include the language required by law, but don’t really explain what happens.

Some folks have it really easy. If all you’ve done is move across town, your address gets updated. You don’t even have to sign your card and send it back. But if you’ve done anything more complicated, you need to make sure you know what you’re doing.

If the NCOA database reports a move out of state or across county lines, the voter gets placed on inactive status.  Same thing happens if your card gets Elvised from the new address.

The voters who face the most confusion are those who have moved across county lines within Iowa.  The cards seem self-evident.  My old address is, my new address is, sign here. But even though Iowa has a statewide registration database, as required under the 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA), Iowa law still says registration is done at the county level.

Let’s say you’ve moved from Iowa City to Des Moines. You get an official looking card that says, “My old address is Iowa City, my new address is Des Moines.” You think, “that’s nice of them, I needed to do that,” sign it, and send it back. Danger, Will Robinson: You’ve just canceled your registration in Johnson County — but you haven’t registered in Polk County. You need to fill out a new registration form.

NCOA hits young, mobile populations the most, but another group that’s impacted is the snowbird population. The Postal Service considers changes of addresses that last longer than a month permanent. So if you spend each winter in Arizona, and get your mail forwarded, the NCOA process assumes you’ve moved out of state. And as the luck of timing would have it, the database is usually updated around March 1, right at the end of snowbird season.

The good news is that this year, Election Day voter registration will give you a second chance if you find yourself Elvised at the polls. But that’s still a little harder than just showing up and voting, because you need ID and proof of your address. Your best bet is to get a voter registration form, go to the courthouse, and follow The King’s advice: “This time I’m gonna take it myself, and put it right in her hand.”

The four year terms would begin with the 2009 school election. Each school district must adopt a transition plan by August 1 of this year. Districts vary between electing members at large and by districts, and the dates of term expiration must be settled.

The bill faced some opposition from school officials, who were concerned that a board majority could turn over at one election. However, that has long been the case for city councils and county boards of supervisors. 

County auditors were supportive, as it will eliminate even-year school elections held less than two months before general elections.  The bill is also seen as a money saver. Iowa City School Board member Patti Fields estimates the change will save a million dollars a year statewide.

Auditors will also get a break on the number of special elections per year, as the bill limits the dates that cities, counties, and school districts can hold special elections. Cities and counties would largely be limited to the first Tuesday in March, May or August, while school districts would be able to go in February, April or June.  46 days notice would be required for a special election, an increase from the old standard of 32 days.  Hurry-up special elections to fill vacant offices, such as a mid-session legislative vacancy, would still be possible.

This fall’s school election would also be the first election that will allow counties to set up “voting centers.”  That would let voters cast ballots at any polling place in their jurisdiction, and not just the precinct where they live. HF2620 limits voting centers to smaller turnout elections and excludes primary and general elections. The provision is seen as a way to test the voting center concept before potentially trying it in a larger election.

The bill also codifies the lawsuit settlement between the secretary of state’s office and the Green and Libertarian parties. That settlement established “political organization” status for minor parties, so voters can register with those affiliations.

And in a change that may have an impact on the November election, new restrictions would be placed on challenges to voters.  Blanket challenges to whole groups of voters would be barred — each challenge must be made individually.  Frivolous challenges would become an aggravated misdemeanor.  In 2004, the Republican Party challenged thousands of voters, with their biggest effort in heavily Democratic Johnson County.

Some school officials opposed the four-year terms out of concern that a board majority could turn over at one election. But Patti Fields of the Iowa City school board backs the legislation. “It is hard enough to find candidates to run to make the elections competitive, let alone four to knock off four,” she said.

“41 states have school board terms of 4 years or more.” Fields told Iowa Independent. “It can take two to three years for school board members to get a good understanding on how things work and run, and a four year term actually gives members a year or two to really work effectively. Right now it is possible to have a new board member every year, and that can have its disadvantages.”

Fields also said auditors are very supportive of the bill as it would reduce the workload of school elections in even numbered years, which fall less than two months before general elections.

Fields, who is completing her first three-year term this year, said her main reason for supporting the bill is the money involved. “Locally it is $10,000 to 12,000 a year, but as a state it is a million dollars a year,” she said. “I do not believe that we are being good stewards of tax dollars holding elections every fall for a possible 5 percent voter turnout.”

One step that might increase that turnout is the voting center provision of the bill. Voting centers would allow voters to vote on Election Day in a precinct other than the one in which they live, such as a polling place they drive by on the way to or from work. The provision is designed to test out the voting center concept in lower turnout city and school elections, and would not apply to primary and general elections.

Under both versions of the legislation, ballot measures would have to be held either with regular elections or on predetermined dates during the year. In Johnson County in 2004, five cities held nearly identical cable franchise elections on three separate dates. With the primary and school elections thrown in, this meant an election a month during the run-up to the presidential election.

The bill would also codify the agreement between the Secretary of State and small political parties that has, since January 1, included the Greens and Libertarians on voter registration forms. Minor parties need to have run a candidate for statewide office in the last ten years and get 850 signatures on a petition to qualify for “political organization” status. They can lose that status if statewide registration drops below 150.