As of last Friday, Carroll County had 14,969 registered voters: 5,310 Democrats, 3,155 Republicans, 6,499 no party voters, and five others.

How the no party voters break here could say a lot about the state of the race across Iowa, although with an economy that has so far avoided the worst of the nation’s economic crisis, voters here may be more persuaded by social issues — as the many letters to the editor in the Carroll Daily Times Herald dealing with the issue of abortion show.

Some factors to consider:

While it is historically Democratic, Carroll County now has two Republican state legislators running unopposed.

In terms of sheer logistics, or boots-on-the-ground campaigning, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is overwhelming Republican John McCain.

Obama has an office here and has had staff in place dating back well before the caucuses. Additionally, Obama campaigned in Carroll twice, just after Labor Day 2007 as the caucus season heated up and in the final days after Christmas.

Obama, who pulled crowds of more than 600 people in each of two visits here, turned that enthusiasm into living and breathing Iowa caucuses support in capturing Carroll County with 35 percent of the delegates.

McCain never visited Carroll although highly popular (and unopposed) State Rep. Rod Roberts, R-Carroll, was an early supporter of McCain who stuck with the Arizona senator even as the campaign struggled in Iowa.

With Obama bringing new voters, and a well-oiled campaign organization, into the process, history may be out the window.

That said, Carroll County will be watched closely because it went to Obama in the Iowa caucuses and to President George W. Bush in the last two general elections — 55 percent to 45 percent for Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

In 2004, the president’s positioning on national security issues and abortion factored heavily into his overwhelming victory in Carroll County, local supporters said then.

“Carroll County is no longer a Democratic County,” said former Republican lieutenant governor Art Neu the day after the 2004 election. “People may still register Democratic out of force of habit.”

Added then Carroll County Republican Chairman John Werden, “Maybe in the future you can quit referring to Carroll County as traditionally Democratic. That’s old news.”

Prior to 2000 Democrats racked up some big wins in the county. In 1960 John F. Kennedy won with 60 percent of the vote in Carroll County, beating Richard Nixon.

Four years later, President Lyndon Johnson walloped Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater, 76 percent to 23 percent in Carroll County.

During the Iowa caucuses, the eyes of much of the world were on Carroll, and for that reason alone, the race here is seen as revealing.

A British television crew from Sky News filmed a segment on in the caucus activity here on Adams Street downtown.

Sirius Satellite Radio did a live interview from Carroll and the Washington Post and Associated Press have frequently filed stories with a Carroll dateline.

“With 25-plus appearances by the candidates, three campaign headquarters and numerous other visits, it’s no wonder that as caucuses come to culmination, Carroll will be a very important hub,” said Jim Gossett, executive director of the Carroll Area Development Corp.

No matter the outcome, Carroll Countians can’t claim they were uninformed. The county had 26 presidential candidate visits in the 2008 cycle — showing that the campaigns saw the area as valuable political turf.

“It reminds me of a baseball player who’s been on the team for a while, and he’s got a good batting average, people like him, and along comes this MVP rookie, and the next thing you know, you’re in the World Series,” Durbin, the assistant majority leader in the Senate, told the Iowa Independent on Friday. “That’s the way I feel. Along came Barack, and I could see our party changing, and I could see our country changing. I couldn’t be happier.”

Senator Dick Durbin, D-Ill., speaks on the University of Iowa campus Friday.

Durbin himself is on the ballot, running for a third term. “I’ve got some TV ads on so people remember my name,” he said. But his seat is safe enough that he has campaigned in 20 states for Obama and Senate candidates, including several Friday stops in Iowa. He spoke to a group of students on the University of Iowa campus, many of whom hailed from Illinois. “I love Evanston! I got 95 percent of the vote there,” he said, grinning, as one student named her hometown.

Durbin is Downstate to Obama’s South Side, a folksy and conversational contrast to Obama’s oratory, but the two have long been political allies. Durbin was one of Obama’s earliest supporters, and traveled to Iowa with Obama on the day Obama announced his candidacy in February 2007.

“Iowa launched the campaign of Barack Obama for president” in the caucuses, Durbin told the midday crowd of students. “That really was the beginning. Now we’ve gotta close the deal.”

“Twenty years from now people are going to ask you where were you when Barack Obama was elected, and you don’t want to say you were down at Culver’s eating butter burgers,” said Durbin. “You want to say you were part of history.”

Part of the pitch was to encourage students to vote early to free up more time to help get out the vote on Election Day. The senator steered voters toward a satellite voting site at the Old Capitol Mall, two blocks to the south. “I don’t want to encourage you to cut classes and vote early… but it is Friday afternoon.”More than  2,500 voters took advantage of the five days of voting at Old Capitol Mall, which ended Friday. More sites open beginning Monday.

“The people who need tax breaks are not the wealthiest Americans,” said Durbin. “The people who need tax breaks are your moms and dads sending you to college. The economy is a mess because we have followed the lead of George Bush.”

Durbin, as most Democratic surrogate speakers do, praised John McCain the man while opposing McCain on policy. “John McCain is a great guy. He’s served our country well. But when we look to the future we need leaders who look to the future. Barack Obama gets it. He gets it better than I do to be honest.”

“I don’t think people are buying the negative ads, all that stuff about ‘palling around with terrorists’ and stuff,” Durbin told Iowa Independent when asked about the negative tone of the campaign. “It just didn’t work. It ended up driving down McCain’s numbers. We’re in a serious time. This economy needs help. We need some serious leadership. And just, you know, throwing names around and saying Barack’s responsible for some guy doing bad things when Barack was 8 years old really is a stretch.”

Durbin is optimistic about Democratic chances for gains in the Senate. “We’re at 51 now, we keep all our Dems, I can see us picking up seats in New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. Alaska will depend to some extent on the trial” of Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, Durbin told Iowa Independent.

“Then we have potential pickup seats in Oregon, where we’re running even or ahead by a point or two; Minnesota, where we’re running ahead by three or four points now; North Carolina, where we’re up several points at this moment,” Durbin said. “And we have potential with Jim Martin in Georgia, which is a surprise, and we’re running even in Kentucky against Mitch McConnell,” the Republican senate leader.

“I’m going there Monday for an event.”

The earliest early voters line up at the Johnson County Auditor's office

In Iowa City, Democratic party activists have a traditional, friendly competition for the honor of “first voter.” On Thursday, the first day of in-person early voting, three dozen people lined up at the county auditor’s office before the window opened. The first-in-line winner was Sue Dvorsky of Coralville, an early Obama backer and one of the county’s co-chairs for Obama at caucus time.

Auditor's Office staffer Harry Rueber prepares to give Sue Dvorsky the first in-person ballot as Tom Penne awaits the second.

“Everything we’ve done for the last two years has led us to today and the next forty days,” said Dvorsky. “It’s an astounding thing to have come this far.”

Most of the voters lined up at 8 a.m. had attended a pre-vote rally at Democratic headquarters, three blocks from the auditor’s office. The rally was one of 17 early vote rallies sponsored by the Obama campaign and the Democrats across the state.

But the earliest early voters included some regular, non-campaign folks. “We’re afraid we won’t be back in time,” said Sue Penne, who is taking a trip to Utah with her husband Tom that may last past election day. They eased into the second and third spots in line, ahead of Sue Dvorsky’s husband, state Sen. Bob Dvorsky.

By 11 AM, 65 voters had voted at the Johnson County Auditor’s Office, and another 34 at a satellite voting site at the Iowa City Public Library.

“We are deeply honored that former Vice President Al Gore, our nation’s leading voice on combating the global climate crisis and a Nobel Peace Prize winner, will be the keynote speaker at our Jefferson Jackson Dinner,” Brennan said in a party press release. “I join Governor Chet Culver and Senator Tom Harkin in expressing gratitude to former Vice President Gore for accepting the invitation to speak at what will be our biggest event of the year. We are excited to welcome him back to Iowa.”

The Jefferson-Jackson Dinner is traditionally the state party’s largest fundraising event. Last year, the six major presidential candidates all attended, along with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and all the state’s top elected officials.

There’s 125 ballgames this fall in the battle for the Iowa Legislature. More players may yet get on the field, but as of the primary, one of the big two teams is forfeiting the fight in 36 of those contests.

Parties have until Aug. 15 to nominate legislative candidates by convention. Minor party and independent candidates have the same deadline.Unopposed seats are a dirty little open secret of politics. Neither political party responded to requests for a post-primary update. Parties like to keep the free rides they have, don’t want to look bad for failed candidate recruitment efforts and no one wants to acknowledge that sometimes the lines and demographics determine the outcome and some races are just not winnable.

Take for example open Senate District 2 in the state’s northwest corner, where George Bush’s 2004 margin in Sioux County was larger than his statewide total. That’s right, if Sioux County had been ceded to South Dakota, John Kerry would have won a 98-county Iowa. District 2 is one of six Senate races, out of 25, that Democrats are letting slide.

Most of those are on heavily GOP turf. But if an election year turns into a massive partisan landslide, like 1964 or 1974 for the Democrats or 1994 for the Republicans, parties may well regret any lost opportunities such as Senate District 30. Rumors of a top-tier Democratic candidate in that West Des Moines district, against Republican incumbent Pat Ward, failed to materialize.

Republicans are only leaving one Democratic senator unopposed, with no candidate against the state’s longest-serving legislator, Jack Kibbie, in District 4. But they’ve left 20 House seats unchallenged.

Many of those are in heavily Democratic areas. The three House members with districts that are entirely in Johnson County are all unopposed. Greens and Libertarians have run, but Vicki Lensing has not seen a GOP opponent since her first run in 2000, and Mary Mascher has not faced a Republican since her second term in 1996.

While Democrat Doris Kelley only carried the then-open House District 20 in Black Hawk County with 51.5 percent in 2006, there is no Republican candidate this time. The GOP is also letting Mary Gaskill’s House District 93 in Ottumwa slide. Though Wapello County is also strongly Democratic, the seat was held briefly by Republican Galen Davis. However, his one win was mainly the result of some divisive Democratic primaries.

Democrats are running candidates in 90 of 100 House contests, leaving 10 uncontested.

The Democrats aren’t running against Mike May, R-Spirit Lake, in House District 6. Democrat Greg Stevens once held the seat. Redistricting made the district less Democratic in 2002, but he held on by less than 100 votes before May beat him by 1000 votes in 2004.

Democrats also made serious recent efforts at House District 79 centered in Cedar County. Democrat Mike Owen ran hard against GOP incumbent Dan Boddicker in 2002 and lost a close race to Jeff Kaufmann in 2004. Democratic numbers slipped a bit in 2006 when Owen chose not to run. Democrat Rebecca Spears, a self-starter unknown to party activists, filed this year but quit the race.

House District 69 is open this year as moderate Walt Tomenga is stepping down. He saw a competitive 2004 race but won handily in 2006. Conservative Erik Helland won big in the GOP primary, and moderates who backed Tomenga and primary loser Al Lorenzen have no Democratic option.

Races with no Republican candidate

Senate District 4: Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg
House District 15: Brian Quirk, D-New Hampton
House District 20: Doris Kelley, D-Waterloo
House District 22: Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo
House District 24: Roger Thomas, D-Elkader
House District 25: Tom Schueller, D-Maquoketa
House District 30: Dave Jacoby, D-Coralville
House District 34: Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids
House District 42: Geri Huser, D-Altoona
House District 46: Lisa Heddens, D-Ames (this race will likely have a Libertarian Party candidate)
House District 48: Donovan Olson, D-Boone
House District 49: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge
House District 66: Ako Abdul-Samad, D-Des Moines
House District 68: Rick Olson, D-Des Moines
House District 77: Mary Mascher, D-Iowa City
House District 78: Vicki Lensing, D-Iowa City
House District 88: Dennis Cohoon, D-Burlington
House District 90: John Whitaker, D-Hillsboro
House District 93: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa

Races with no Democratic candidate

Senate District 2:  Open Seat (Dave Mulder retiring, Randy Feenstra GOP nominee)
Senate District 26: Steve Kettering, R-Lake View
Senate District 28: James Seymour, R-Woodbine
Senate District 30: Pat Ward, R-West Des Moines
Senate District 32: Brad Zaun, R-Urbandale
Senate District 36: Paul McKinley, R-Chariton
House District 5: Royd Chambers, R-Sheldon
House District 6: Mike May, R-Spirit Lake
House District 51: Rod Roberts, R-Carroll
House District 63: J. Scott Raecker, R-Urbandale
House District 69: Open Seat (Walt Tomenga retiring, Erik Helland GOP nominee)
House District 79: Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton
House District 82: Linda Miller, R-Bettendorf
House District 83: Steven Olson, R-DeWitt
House District 97: Rich Anderson, R-Clarinda
House District 98: Greg Forristall, R-Macedonia

"In the interest of public safety and out of concern for Iowans impacted by the flooding and severe weather, we have decided to postpone the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention," said state Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan in a statement.  "As Iowans, we encourage everyone to work hand in hand with their neighbors on flood relief efforts across our state." 

The Democratic Party's 9th Annual Hall of Fame Dinner and Awards Ceremony, a fundraiser originally scheduled for Friday night, was postponed yesterday. At that time, party officials were confident that the convention would be able to take place as scheduled. Brooke Borkenhagen, the party's press secretary, said a June 21 deadline to report Iowa's delegates to the Democratic National Convention was one reason the event would go on as planned.

But after observing the situation overnight, the party decided to postpone the event. The state party is currently in discussions with the Democratic National Committee to work out an extension of the deadline and are confident something will be worked out and Iowa delegates will be counted.

"They've been very understanding of our situation," Borkenhagen said.

Caleb Hunter, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, could not be reached for comment. The GOP is expecting about 1,700 delegates at their convention at Hy-Vee Hall, which sits just one block west of the Des Moines River. Republican delegates to the national convention do not need to be certified by the Republican National Committee until August. 

A new date and venue for the Democratic Convention will be announced in the coming days.

Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards this weekend in Carroll said members of his party in Congress should tie any funding of the war in Iraq to a timetable for complete combat troop withdrawal.

Speaking to a crowd of more than 250 (267 signed in) at the Swan Lake State Park Conservation Education Center, Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina and 2004 vice presidential candidate, said the Democratically controlled Congress is not using the mandate American voters gave it on Iraq.

“The Congress needs to grow a spine, stand up to George Bush,” Edwards said.

In addition to calling for troop pullout, Edwards said the Congress should take a position that there will be no permanent military bases in Iraq.

In a folksy, populist speech, Edwards said strongly criticized U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., the Democratic presidential front-runner, for recently voting to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. He thinks the vote rolls out the red carpet for the Bush administration to go to war with Iran.

“We’ve heard this song and dance before,” Edwards said.

He added, “I strongly disagree with her (Clinton). We cannot give this president an inch.”

Edwards said a “rigged” and “corrupt” U.S. government is funding much of the war in Iraq with no-bid contracts and using largely unaccountable mercenaries from organizations like Blackwater to fight the conflict.

“This is not the way our government is supposed to work,” Edwards said.

A highly successful trial lawyer before his service in the U.S. Senate, Edwards said he would use the courtroom skills he honed against big business and insurance companies to take those interests on from the White House, chiefly to provide for universal health care.

He suggested that some other Democratic candidates are not up to the challenge.
“Replacing a group of corporate Republicans with corporate Democrats will not bring about the change we need,” Edwards said.

If elected president, Edwards said, he would seek to strip members of Congress of their health-insurance plans if they don’t provide the American people with a similar system by July of 2009. That line brought some of the most sustained applause in his Carroll visit.

Edwards has a question for those Republicans – and Democrats – who offer health-care plans he doesn’t think include enough people.

“I want them to explain to me what American is not worthy of health-care,” Edwards said.

In the area of education and energy Edwards said he supports a national cap on carbon emissions and wants to see more money spent on biofuels. He is opposed to any new nuclear plants.

Edwards also blasted the North American Free Trade Agreement and expressed concern about imports from China.

“When are we going to say `enough is enough,’” Edwards said.

Below the fold see my play by play, and don’t skip the comments section for more live insights from Iowa Independent’s Dien Judge, T.M. Lindsey, Lynda Waddington and Ben Weyl.CNN/YouTube Democratic Debate Liveblog

8:19 My biggest surprise of the night: Obama’s nuclear power remarks.

Edwards had the best candidate video: getting a laugh with the haircut reference, then turning it around to mock the mockery and ask what’s really important.  Worst: Kucinich for repeating TEXT PEACE TEXT PEACE TEXT PEACE way too many times.

8:11 CNN says their focus group calls the leaders Obama, Biden, Edwards in that order.  The pundits liked Clinton’s tough answer on the “would you talk to the dictators” question.

If you line the time clock up in the order they stood on stage, it makes a bell curve.  Just as we thought.

So what was the best question?  The snowman global warming question combined cutesy and serious well, the Al Gore question was a waste of time.

Last video: Obama.  Look, I’m a rock star!

Last question: The Hammers are the name of what English soccer team?  Just kidding: Praise your neighbor.

Gravel liked Dodd’s dad but “follow the money.”

The rest is mostly fluff.  Hillary: “Dems are ready to lead.”  Biden says it’s ridiculous.

And that’s really an interesting way to sum it up: the questions were sometimes wonderful, sometimes shallow, but with thousands to choose from, chalk that up to CNN.  Some of these exchanges were among the sparkiest we’ve seen yet, particularly the Iraq segment.

7:57.  “In God We Trust” and an atheist question. 

I want to listen to those answers again.

Gun control question: “Are our babies safe?”  The questioner’s “baby” is something that looks semi automatic.  Richardson answers with background checks and poverty.

Biden: “If that’s his baby he needs help.”  That’s Joe, who ends with “hope he doesn’t come lookin’ for me.”

7:53 Does you health care cover the undocumented?  Dodd insists on answering the health care big picture and gets applause for breaking format: “this is an important question, everyone should be able to answer it.”  Richardson: it should cover everybody.

Next question: How would you represent change with Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton?  Hilary: “I think it
IS a problem that Bush was elected in 2000.  I actually though someone else was elected…” and BIG applause for “I’m very proud of my husband’s record.”  She runs out of time with all the applause.  Gravel: “The Democratic Party sold out to Wall Street.”

Obama: “Every question you’ve heard, you see cynicism.”  Back to the theme.

7:47 Health Care Mashup question.  Including another Subterranean Homesick Blues reference.

Obama: My plan has universal coverage, despite what Edwards said.  HE thinks only way to get it is to mandate it.  Health insurance/drug lobby: “A seat at the table, but they can’t buy every chair.”  Edwards: Obama plan is serious but not universal, you HAVE to mandate it. Gets emotional – “we should be outraged.”

Clinton: universal care is an American value.  References to `93 and “I have the scars to show for it”– shots all around!

7:44 a singing question.  Not as good as George Harrison’s “Taxman.”  Biden: “Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget.”  Repeal Bush tax cuts.

Next question: will you raise taxes?  Dennis: crams whole platform into answer.

7:42 Social Security earnings cap.  Dodd would support removing cap.  Obama: we need a bipartisan plan.

Next question: We’re going broke.  Raise taxes, or cut benefits?  Richardson: Need bipartisan effort to fix
Medicare — emphasize preventative.  Pension portability.  (Doesn’t answer the specific question)

7:39 Minimum wage.  Would you be president for minimum wage?  (HELL yeah!)  Dodd has two kids, can’t do it.  Edwards “yes’ Clinton “sure.”  Obama: “Most folks on this stage have a lot of money.  You’re doin’ all right Chris.  We don’t have Mitt Romney money.”  Biden: “I don’t have Obama money either.”  Anderson Cooper “you’d all get overtime.”  The whole exchange got a little too flip…

Dennis video: Text PEACE.  He said Text PEACE at least 8 times in 30 seconds.

7:34 Voting equipment.  Richardson: go to paper trails.  We need same day registrations, stop GOP vote suppression.  Wish more folks had gotten that one.  The questioner’s premise: “if I can get the same Starbuck’s latte everywhere, I should get the same ballot everywhere.”

Video from Biden: he’s the only one with a plan, it says here.  That calls for another shot.  And how about a shot every time Gravel complains about not getting enough time?

7:30 Nuclear power (is this a GOP debate?)  Edwards: No, costly, slow, unsafe.  Also against liquid coal.  Obama: We should explore nuke as part of the mix.  (Interesting…)  The reason nothing changes: “Dick Cheney met with oil companies 40 times.  Put nat’l interest ahead of special interest.”

Clinton: take away oil tax breaks.  “all these alternatives are important.  I’m agnostic about nuclear power.”  So
let’s figure out waste and cost of nukes.

7:28 How will US decrease energy consumption?  Gravel: uses it to work in Fair Tax.  Dodd: 50 MPG CAFE, corporate carbon tax.

Raise your hands: who took a chartered jet here?  Gravel: “I took the train.”

7:26 A snowman asks about global warming.  Cute.  Kucinich re-uses his “global warring” line.  Move away from oil.

7:25 a question about Al Gore getting in: “does that hurt y’all’s feelings?”  Biden: “The people of Tennessee just had their feelings hurt.”

7:23 and a sex ed question gets giggles.  It’s trying to get at their role as parents.  Obama asked about Romney attack: Obama says Romney supported the same thing
"apparently he forgot.”

7:20 would you send your kids to public school?  Edwards: my kids all went to public school.  Clinton: Chelsea went to public school until Bill was president.  Obama: my kids went to a private school — because I taught there.  But we don’t have good public schools for ALL kids.  Biden: my kids went to private school after my first wife died.  Kucinich: my daughter was in public.  Gravel wants more education competition.  They’re letting everyone answer this one and taking a lot of time.

7:18 and we have a music vid on No Child Left Behind.  Richardson gets cheers for “scrap it” and for teacher minimum wage of 40 k.

Biden: “It was a mistake.”  I voted for it because I had great faith in Ted Kennedy.  You could scrap it or do a major overhaul.

7:14 Richardson’s video is a Job Interview ad.

Who was your favorite teacher.  Gravel talks of childhood dyslexia.  Obama says his 5th grade teacher who had lived in Kenya (gives him a chance to touch on the bio).  Biden talks of abuse of power.  Edwards’ daddy was a millworker – shot!

7:10 break time.  Gravel’s video.  It’s not the one where he throws the rock in the water.  That last exchange was the most sparks I’ve seen on the war — or indeed on any issue — in any of these debates so far.  Differences in emphasis and expectation setting, with Dodd and Richardson on the Get Out side and Biden and Clinton responding with a version of Get Real.  Wish Obama and Edwards had been in the loop instead of Kucinich

7:05 When will all US troops be out, and how many family members do you have serving?

Dodd: We need out by this April.  I was in Guard, my brothers were in, etc.

Richardson: There’s a difference between Senators and me.  Six months, no residuals.

Biden: Richardson can’t get troops out in six months.  Make sure you can protect civilians or let them die.  We need to get the mine resistant vehicles over there as long as there’s one troop (applause)

Clinton: Move out ASAP, but Joe is right: we can move a brigade or two a month.  They’re not even planning for that.  We need to move out safely.  Let’s admit now that it’s
complicated.

Dennis: Defund now.  Everybody take a shot.

7:01 Would you meet with leaders of Cuba, Iran, Syria, N Korea, etc?  Obama: Yes – Reagan talked to Soviets while calling them ‘evil empire.’  We have to find areas to move forward, a ‘disgrace’ we’re not talking.  (Obama cites Reagan?  Almost as good as Hillary citing Goldwater.) 

Clinton: Won’t promise to meet with leaders, but will make diplomatic efforts (she’s trying to sound tough)

Edwards: Yes, I would, but only after diplomatic groundwork.  “This is just a piece of a bigger question” (shot!) — we need to restore US moral leadership.

6:59 Soldier re: women’s status in Middle East.  Would they take Hillary seriously?  Clinton: I’ve met with many officials in that part of world, and
I can be taken seriously. (applause)

6:56 Should women register for draft?  Dodd: yes, but I oppose draft.  We need national service. “I served in the Peace Corps.”  Another shot, everyone.

Clinton: yes to reg., no to draft.  Notes women combat deaths.  Talks about Public Service Academy.

Edwards plays the audience member card with a female combat pilot sitting with Elizabeth.

Gravel: I ended the draft (shot time!)

6:52 to Gravel re: his saying troops in Vietnam dying in vain.  Goes on about unfairness of format.  “There’s only one thing worse than a soldier dying in vain — it’s MORE soldiers dying in vain.”  Best line of his campaign.  They zoomed in to a scary extreme
close-up, through.

Obama critiques lack of planning when we got in.  But disputes the “dying in vain” line.

Edwards: “the question is, what is going to be done to stop this war.”  He’s been doing a lot of paraphrase-the-question.  “Hold Bush responsible.”

6:48 Why haven’t the Dems gotten us out already?

Clinton: We’ve tried to win GOP support for a timeline.  Iraqis refuse to accept political solutions.  Plays the pentagon-bashing-me card.

Dennis: The Dems have failed the American people.  Defund now.

Dodd: we need to set a date to make Iraq act.  Dodd breaks format and gets applause.

Richardson: Bring all troops home in 6 months, no residual forces.

6:47 Biden: we can’t just pull out now.  It would take a year to get everyone out, and you need a political solution.  “I’m the only one who’s proposed a political solution.”  Everyone take another shot.

6:45 “Are we WATCHIN’ the same ___in’ war?  How do we pull out now?”

Obama: “I opposed this war from the start.”  Everybody take a shot if you’re playing at home. 

6:44 They’re showing Citadel grad who was first US troop killed in Iraq.  Troops get the biggest applause of night.

6:38 and I was wrong, Edwards actually does go with Hair, in the hippie musical sense with issue pics and a “What Matters?” tag.

A video question from Darfur.  Richardson: I was at that camp.  It’s diplomacy, UN troops, pressure from China, it’s LEADERSHIP.  “The answer here is caring about Africa.”  This is the best I’ve heard him in a debate, sounds like he did in person.  This guy is speaking from the heart here.

Biden: I heard the same arguments about Kosovo.  We should send troops NOW.  “They think we can save them and guess what, we can.”

Gravel: Africa is afraid of us.

Clinton: We need to act instead of talk: UN, divestment, sanctions, and no fly zone.  Tries not to answer on ground troops.  She’s pushed: “American ground troops don’t
belong at this time.”  Turns it into Iraq.

6:35.  Break time.  Obama seems better so far than in previous debates.  Biden and Gravel are invisible. Hillary’s video looks like Subterranean Homesick Blues with the cue cards, but the music isn’t as good.  The questions have a lot of nuance, and the candidates are talking more like presidents and less like legislators.

6:30 another gay marriage question, from a southern black minister: “why is it acceptable to use religion” against this?  Edwards: I feel enormous personal conflict on this issue.  I want to do… basically everything short of marriage.  (And mentions that Elizabeth disagrees).  A new twist: the guy is in the audience, and “did he answer
the question?”  “Not like I would have liked to have heard it.”  Edwards: Using religion is NOT acceptable.

Obama asked about old interracial marriage laws.  Obama ” we have to make sure everyone is equal under the law.”  Civil unions will do that, marriage up to denominations.

6:27 Gay marriage.  Dennis: yes.  (I wish everyone could answer everything.)  Dodd, you voted for DOMA; Dodd filters it through “how would you like your kids
treated" comes out for civil unions, not marriage.  Richardson: I’d do what’s achievable — civil unions, Don’t Ask, hate crimes, etc.

6:25 Edwards: “Anybody who’s considering not voting for Obama because he’s black, or Clinton because she’s a woman, I don’t want your vote.”  Women affected by poverty, that’s my cause.  On the issues that directly affect women’s lives I have the strongest record.

Clinton: Praise to Elizabeth, I have a long record on women’s issues.  It’s terrific we’re arguing about this (applause)

6:22 to Obama and Clinton: not black enough, not woman enough.

Obama: “When I’m catchin’ a cab in Manhattan…” (laughs)  Close the gaps, because that will solve the race problem.  Give children a fair shake.

Clinton: Gets big applause, I’m running because I think I’m most qualified, etc.  “when I’m inaugurated it’ll send a great message to girls and boys”

6:19 Race, class and Katrina.  Dodd: if it had been a white population, more rapid response.  “It should have been done ahead of time.”

First question to Richardson.  “Eliminate any red tape that helps families.”  I know what he meant, but he does that all the time in debates.

I’d like to have seen more folks answer the Republican running mate question.

6:16 to Edwards: slavery reparations.  Edwards: no, but there are other things we can do to create equality.  “We can’t trade our insiders for their insiders.”

Raise of hands: Dennis is for reparations, no one else.

Obama: The reparations we need are investment in our schools (big applause)

Candidate videos: Chris Dodd pokes fun at his own hair (will Edwards?)

6:13 which Republican would be your running mate? (gets applause.)  Biden: Chuck Hagel, with Dick Lugar as a possible sec of state.  The questions are broader and bigger picture than the journalist questions.

Edwards: These all ask “how do we bring about big change.”  Big power will not negotiate, we need to take it from them.

6:11 Gravel’s mike cutting out.  He’s basing Obama for bundling.  Obama: The reason you know who’s raising $ for me is I passed a disclosure law.  Gets big
applause.

6:10 Hillary, define “liberal.”  HRC: it’s been made to seem as if it describes big govt.  I prefer progressive, “I consider myself a modern progressive.”

6:08 How would America be better with Kucinich as president?  Dennis: I’m against
the war 100% of the time.  “Strength through peace” and The Science Of Human Relations (sounds new agey) gets applause.

Hillary: which of us is ready to lead on day one?

Obama: This is a problem that spans the parties, we need a change of attitudes.  (He’s hitting the theme twice in two questions.)

6:06 Dodd goes with the experience.  Obama says the question is dead on because of the need for change.

6:04 and Biden gets zinged for stuffing the poll, laughs it off.  First question leads with WAZZUP? and is basically “how are you different?”

6:00 and the debate leads with a goateed Gen Xer via YouTube challenging the candidates to answer the questions. Anderson Cooper shows rejected questions.  I think we’re going to see some LOLCats here.  Im in ur debatez, askin ur questions.

5:52.  The Dodd clock prompted me to quickly surf the other sites.  This is, after all, the YouTube debate.  The Edwards camp is having folks vote for their favorite YouTube question.  Richardson had a live chat an hour ago.  The Kucinich site is in Under Construction mode.  Biden has a “You Can’t Duck The Question” feature.  (As John
Stewart would say, VIL-SACK!)  Nothing special on Clinton or Gravel.

Meanwhile Lou Dobbs, our warm-up act, is banging the immigration drum.

5:41 and Chris Dodd is in the in box.  The Talk Clock is back.  The value of the tool gets him the mention.  So here you go.  See how it works live.

5:00 and I’m getting an early start because this factoid came my way: the seating arrangement.  From left to right: Gravel, Dodd, Edwards, Clinton, Obama, Richardson, Biden and Kucinich. 
Marginalization both figuratively and literally (or, well, spatially).  Expect a lot of nice tight shots of center stage tonight.
]]> http://iowaindependent.com/626/cnnyoutube-democratic-debate-liveblog/feed 100 http://iowaindependent.com/581/state-budget-woes-in-2008-its-more-likely-house-minority-leader-just-blowing-smoke http://iowaindependent.com/581/state-budget-woes-in-2008-its-more-likely-house-minority-leader-just-blowing-smoke#comments Tue, 17 Jul 2007 23:36:20 +0000 Chris Woods http://iowaindependent.com/581/state-budget-woes-in-2008-its-more-likely-house-minority-leader-just-blowing-smoke [Commentary] State House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, R-Sioux City, is worried about the state budget.  In mid-June, Rants posted on his personal site a blog entry detailing new “budget woes” that the Democratic majority could soon be facing on capitol hill.  Democrats don’t seem to be too worried.

According to Rants, a recent Legislative Fiscal Committee meeting presentation by the Fiscal Services arm of the Legislative Services Agency (LSA) stated that cigarette and tobacco tax revenues were coming in about $3 million short of initial estimates.  For fiscal year 2008, if these trends continue, the revenue could be down by as much as $12 million.  The problem that Rants then foresees is in fiscal year 2008, which started July 1.

The first $127.6 million of cigarette and tobacco tax revenue is deposited into a new Health Care Trust Fund that was created in SF 128, legislation that raised the cigarette tax by $1 — from 36 cents per pack to $1.36.  Gov. Chet Culver signed the bill into law March 15, and the tax increase took effect immediately.  Rants says that if the tax revenue continues to decline there won’t be enough money to fund the new health fund, and that means cuts will have to come somewhere else.

However, there is reason to doubt that Rants’ nervousness is justified.State revenues continue to grow, and the state seems on a steady — if not optimistic — path toward growth.  Legislative Democrats, while increasing spending to meet campaign promises, have been efficient and responsible with their spending.  Some Democrats even argue that Rants is manufacturing problems that don’t even exist.  And Rants’ complaints are representative of many statehouse Republicans.

They’re wrong.

State revenues increased big time in fiscal year 2007.  The LSA reported that our state revenues topped $6 billion for the first time ever.  They told the Cedar Rapids Gazette earlier this month that “there’s no weakness” in state revenues.

And even if the cigarette tax revenue does decrease–as more people quit smoking, which is what Democrats wanted all along–then so be it.  The state had been taking in almost $100 million annually in revenue from cigarettes and tobacco.  The estimated revenues from cigarettes and tobacco next year are supposed to be more than $200 million next year, which is still enough to cover the deposit required for the new health care trust fund.

Rants’ problem seems to be a bit of jealousy.  Democrats in the legislature had a very successful session in their first time having unified control of the legislature and the governorship since the 1960s.  Rants lost his position as speaker of the Iowa House as a result of the power shift, and now he’s doing what a minority does: be vocal and complain about the way things are being run.

Sometimes those complaints are legitimate.  It is one of the reasons we protect the rights of minorities in our procedure and in our political system.  But sometimes it is just whining.

Rants thinks the sky is falling.  The facts seem to show that the sky is higher than ever.

In the continuing investigation over the firings of U.S. attorneys as a partisan political effort by the Bush Administration, President George Bush asserted executive privilege and will not allow two aides to testify to the Senate Judiciary Committee, even though they have been subpoenaed by Congress.

Harriet Miers, former White House Counsel and Supreme Court nominee, as well as Sara Taylor, an Iowa native and former White House political director, were subpoenaed by Congress on June 13 in an effort to determine whether the firings of eight U.S. Attorneys were politically charged.  Some have alleged the firings were part of an effort to stymie probes of Republican political officials or prompt investigations of Democrats.  Thousands of pages of documents have already been turned over to Congress as part of their ongoing investigation.

Taylor left her job at the White House at the end of May, citing a desire to work in the private sector.

Taylor is a graduate of Drake University and former national co-chairman of the College Republicans.  She began work on Bush’s presidential campaign in 1999 and soon worked her way up to deputy political director, working directly under Bush aide Karl Rove.  She is also the daughter of former state legislator Ray Taylor.

During the 2004 election, Taylor helped create the Bush-Cheney microtargeting strategy that was a critical voter turnout tool.  The campaign analyzed voter spending patterns and then developed lists of potentially sympathetic voters. Those voters were then targeted for direct mail and other advertising. The data-mining techniques are credited with giving Republicans a decisive turnout advantage in the 2004 election.

In documents and testimony provided to Congress, Justice Department officials have revealed that the White House seemed to be directing the firings of U.S. Attorneys.  Karen Tumulty of Time Magazine reported in May:

“In private testimony that is being released this afternoon by the committee, Alberto Gonzales’s former Chief of Staff Kyle Sampson told investigators that Gonzales himself initially resisted the idea of bypassing the Senators from Arkansas to install Karl Rove protege Tim Griffin as U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas. Pressure to do it, he suggested, was coming from officials at the White House-specifically, White House political director Sara Taylor, her deputy Scott Jennings and Chris Oprison, the associate White House counsel. Sampson described himself and Goodling as “open to the idea,” which is not the same as instigating it.”

Bush’s assertion of executive privilege is sure to rile Congressional Democrats who believe their investigation is being blocked by unlawful or unjustified attempts to assert privilege.  The White House Counsel, Fred Fielding, counters that they have offered up Taylor’s testimony in an informal and off-the-record sit-down with members of Congress.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., said yesterday on CNN that he would seek contempt citations against the president should he again assert executive privilege and direct Taylor and Miers not to testify.

“I haven’t heard anything from Mr. Fielding or anybody else at the White House that would justify a claim of executive privilege,” Leahy said. “[Taylor] sent something like 60,000 e-mails on the Republican National Committee account, not e-mails to the president, but political e- mails while she was there.”

The showdown between the two branches over the assertion of executive privilege and contempt citations would effectively create a constitutional situation not seen since the days of Watergate, when President Richard Nixon asserted executive privilege on recorded communications inside the White House.  The Supreme Court overturned the assertion of privilege and Nixon eventually resigned from office.