Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Des Moines last Friday.

Langston, a Democrat, scouted the full field, arguably the deepest ever for her party in terms of resumes and star quality, before picking U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., as her candidate — a choice she made during a ride to the Cedar Rapids airport with Obama amid discussions of the state’s understated beauty.

She saw something within Obama that helped her to make what was a personal decision to support the first-term senator.

“As we were talking, we just became four people,” Langston said. “At that moment in time what I saw was that Senator Obama still had a piece of his humanity. Running for president and all the challenge and hoopla can really put you into a very unusual atmosphere.

“It can change you. I had at that moment, and I continue to have, a sense of Obama as a person. That’s also certainly true with (his wife) Michelle. There is a humanity that still exists within that family that has not been subverted by running for president.”

It’s that unflappable quality and connection to people that Langston believes helped Obama win the nomination.

John McCain speaks to a crowd in Le Mars during the Iowa caucuses. Immigration dominated that forum in northwest Iowa.

While insiders spent time recently thinking about what has made Obama’s campaign successful, most talk of the McCain campaign was more about its missteps than its successes.

Many see McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running-mate as a turning point in the election.

Former GOP gubernatorial candidate David Oman, a top staffer for Iowa’s last two Republican governors, says McCain would have been better served by picking former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

“I’ve thought a handful of times the past month that he would have helped, perhaps a lot, in energizing GOP base, appealing to folks deeply troubled by downturn and so-called bailout, and in several southern and border states now close,” Oman said.

He said that Palin has not benefited the Republican ticket.

“Look at the [Des Moines Register] Iowa Poll breakouts with 60 percent of people feeling she is not qualified to assume the presidency,” Oman said.  “Huckabee would have passed that test. Romney, too, though he would have cemented many peoples’ classic impressions of the GOP brand — wealth — and probably not turned around a single state, including Michigan.”

Oman said that if Obama is elected Tuesday he will have to remember where his journey initially received traction.

“It wasn’t in Pennsylvania, or many other states,” Oman said. “It was in Iowa, first.  Lack of success here followed by second in New Hampshire would have shut down his campaign for the nomination.”

Oman said Obama clearly will have higher priorities that need to be addressed before he can focus on a more specifically rural agenda.

“I suspect Obama will focus first on the mega problems of the economy, energy, and health care, not to mention national security with or without the incident [VP nominee Joe] Biden forecasted,” Oman said.

Former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Mike Peterson, now an executive with AT&T in St. Louis, Mo., says at this point, it seems as if the presidential race is all about margin of victory.

“I will be surprised if Obama receives fewer than 350 electoral votes,” Peterson said.

Peterson said he still believes that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would have made a stronger running mate for McCain than Palin.

In terms of governing following the election, Peterson said an Obama win is good for rural Iowa.

“I am told that Obama’s first legislative package will be an infrastructure bill,” Peterson said.  “Iowa’s seniority should be a plus there.”

Veteran Iowa writer Chuck Offenburger runs a popular Web site and churns out prolific articles for a variety of publications from a renovated farmhouse outside of Cooper in Greene County. He sees Obama as a stronger leader for rural Iowa than McCain.

“Rural Iowa will fare much better under Obama than it would have under McCain,” Offenburger, a Republican, said.  “Obama understands the Midwest. He understands agriculture and what a huge role ag will play in the new energy era. And he will never forget the huge role Iowans played in enabling his candidacy.”

On the eve of the election State Rep. Tom Schueller, D-Maquoketa, recalled the early days of the Iowa caucuses when he was receiving call after call from candidates.

“I supported Joe Biden in the caucus,” Schueller said. “I thought he would have done better. To be honest with you, I really blame the media for that. They picked up on who they thought was the front-runners and that’s who ended up being the front runners. The other ones didn’t get hardly an honorable mention. Those folks — Biden, (New Mexico Gov, Bill) Richardson and (Connecticut Sen. Chris) Dodd — had a lot of good things to say too.”

Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in Lexington, Ky., puts it flatly.

“I see no chance for McCain,” Cross said. “Hindsight is always 20/20. Romney would have brought the base around, though not stimulated crowds and volunteers like Palin. He would have been viewed as qualified, and could have probably made more coherent arguments than McCain, so the election would have been closer.

“But this is all a parlor game because McCain wasn’t about to pick someone he couldn’t get along with, and I agree with that approach. You have to think about governing, not just winning. Obama did that with Biden, an example of his better judgment.”

Down in southern Iowa, State Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston, says McCain has a chance when one looks at the internals in a lot of the state polls.

“Right now, both the Democratic base and the Republican base are fired up,” Angelo said.  “So you assume in a record turnout that the bases are cancelling each other — sorta like my wife and I — you then look at the number among if McCain can swing some of them and the undecideds in the battleground states, he pulls out the electoral win.   Obama was hoping for a blowout based on the participation of new and infrequent voters — but early returns indicate that the early voters are mostly the same voters who always vote early.”

Angelo said McCain’s selection of Palin brought passion to base and delivered a middle-class relevancy.

There is a reason that “Joe The Plumber” became a central figure in this campaign, Angelo said.

“With Palin and Joe’s involvement, McCain got his campaign groove back by realizing that there are a large group of middle class voters who didn’t believe their concerns were being addressed in the campaign,” Angelo said.  “Romney doesn’t have that power to harness the energy of those voters and get them to the polls. Palin does.  She’s ‘one of us.’  In short, I don’t think the race is close without Palin.”

Sarah Palin at a recent rally in Sioux City.

Offenburger thinks McCain’s problem wasn’t in choosing Palin, but in shackling her to a script and cocooning a natural campaigner.

“Let me admit that I still think Palin was a good choice, especially given where the McCain campaign was in August” Offenburger said  “And that leads me to what I think is the biggest mistake McCain made — letting his campaign staff mismanage Palin from the moment she said ‘yes.’  They should have let her talk one-on-one to every reporter, columnist and broadcaster who wanted to talk, instead of packaging her up for those huge exclusive interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric — under the glare of the brightest lights and widest audiences imaginable.  That was unfair to Palin.

“If the rest of the press corps had been getting frequent access to her immediately, one-on-one and in small gatherings, she would’ve learned quickly to relax and be herself.  I think she would have then shown people the knowledge, ability, personality and savviness that have helped her become governor of a huge, complex and important state.  By the way, I think she would do very well in the kind of retail politics that the Iowa caucuses require.”

For his part, Schueller said Obama has picked a running mate who understands the middle class.

“Look at how he gets to work everyday and look at what he’s done since he’s been there,” Schueller said. “Second of all, Obama has some Midwest roots, being from Illinois and all. So, he’s going to understand our needs a little better than McCain ever would or could. And he’s going to have a better grasp of agriculture than McCain ever would or could. That’s been reflected in Obama’s campaigning. McCain’s record reflects what he thinks about ethanol, renewable energy and so-forth.”

Langston said she knew McCain was in trouble when she saw him speak during the caucus campaign season at a Cedar Rapids Rotary Club meeting.

“That’s a rather large group of over 200 significant business people,” Langston said. “Really, [McCain’s] presentation was not good. By my estimation, it was appallingly bad. While the campaign was talking about having no money, they came into the meeting with drapes and curtains and tele-prompters. I thought, ‘Oh my.’ I mean if you can’t stand up in front of an Iowa Rotary and give a speech without all of this.”

While they differ on projections and advice for the candidates, political analysts with rural ties contacted by the Iowa Independent agree on one point: this is a defining political night for the nation.

Gov. Sarah Palin

Al Cross, the director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues, said Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden, a U.S. senator from Delaware, may be better known in Iowa, but in the country as a whole, Palin, although only a first-term Alaska governor, is now better known.

“The possibilities for Palin encompass almost the whole spectrum,” says Cross. “She’s supposed to be a quick study, and proved to be a good debater in Alaska when she had the facts at her command, so she could ju-jitsu the recent bad press on her and beat the expectations game. Also, this will be a calm, controlled situation, unlike those that produced the slips.”

But there’s no way Palin can bone up on everything, Cross added from his office in Lexington, Ky.

“Some of the issues can be relatively arcane so she could also fall all over herself like she did with Katie Couric,” Cross said. “This will be a high-wire act and draw a huge audience.”

Over in Greene County, outside of Cooper, veteran Iowa observer and writer Chuck Offenburger, a Republican, said Palin needs to have the performance of her life.

“Not that Sarah Palin needs one more bit of pressure on her, but I think this vice-presidential debate may well be a last stand for the Republican ticket, as far as rural America is concerned,” Offenburger said  “She must re-convince us of her legitimacy as a running mate, after her disastrous interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric.  When John McCain, in last Friday night’s debate, said so matter-of-factly that he’d ‘eliminate ethanol subsidies,’ I could sense a lot of Republicans across the Farm Belt saying, ‘That’s the last straw.’  If Palin bombs Thursday night, that would really seal the deal.”

Offenburger said Palin should come out swinging tonight, maintain her confidence and attempt to convince Americans that she is indeed the “new energy,” as she’s said.

“I also think she should make a strong stand with her pro-life position, and challenge Biden on his views on abortion and those of Obama,” Offenburger said. “Also, she should separate herself from the Bush administration and the Republican past, and that it’s time for mavericks like her to re-shape the GOP.”

State Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston, says Democrats underestimate Palin at their own peril. He believes she is the victim of a generalized liberal media caricature.

“What I have found amazing is that the national media doesn’t let the facts get in the way of their master narrative,” Angelo said.  “We’ve been told that Palin is an embarrassment and that the economic crisis hurts McCain.  Yet, in today’s new ABC poll, McCain has taken the lead among independents and has actually gained on Obama in the last week.   This is the problem with commentary being put forward as objective news.”

In Storm Lake, Art Cullen, the progressive co-owner/editor of The Storm Lake Times, who endorsed Biden for the presidency during the Iowa caucuses, said most Americans who care already understand that Biden is an expert on foreign affairs and Palin is not.

“So I think Biden needs to undermine Palin at her supposed strength — energy policy,” Cullen said. “Rural Iowans would like to hear Biden embrace renewable energy in all its forms. I doubt that Palin knows what the wind energy production tax credit is, or what percentage of the corn acreage goes to ethanol production. Biden should know. He should talk about Obama’s plan to invest $150 billion in renewable energy research and deployment as a domestic economic stimulus and as a foreign policy foil.”

Se. Joe Biden

There should be no gender-based double-standard in the debate, Cullen added.

“I don’t think that Biden should go soft on her because she is a woman,” Cullen said. “If she acts like a fool, Biden should pounce on it. But I have never won a debate, much less an election.”

Republican insider David Oman, a former GOP candidate for governor, said Biden is smart enough to avoid being condescending toward Palin.

“Senator Biden is well known to two generations of Iowans from running for the White House in 1987-1988 and this last caucus cycle, 20 years later,” said Oman, a Des Moines businessman.  “He has made friends in Dubuque and Carroll Counties and in Iowa’s larger cities where there are many voters who are Roman Catholic.”

Biden is a  Catholic.

Oman said the debate time rules will likely help with Biden’s need for brevity.

The real questions, Oman said, are about Palin.

“Sarah Palin can read a teleprompter and work a rope line well — both with energy and personality,” Oman said. “Can she answer philosophical questions beyond talking about her own life experiences? Can she answer political questions beyond relating Alaska anecdotes? Can she articulate an understanding of America’s security, economic, and social challenges?”

Oman said Palin may benefit from low expectations, but he questions whether  “clearing a low bar really wins votes.”

“I remember the tried- and-true gasoline ad from my childhood: ‘You expect more from Standard, and you get it.’” Oman said. “Americans expect more from nominees for the two highest offices in the land.”

In a survey last week of 742 likely voters living in rural communities, McCain led Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama 51 percent to 41 percent, according to the Center’s poll. In a September 2004 poll in battleground states, Bush led Kerry by 13 percentage points — 55 percent to 42 percent.

How the debates play with rural voters could be crucial for determining the outcome of the election. Can John McCain — who has been openly hostile to ethanol and other farm interests — hold the lead with rural voters who may be paying more attention to account balances than social issues this year? And will Obama be able to a bridge a perceived cultural disconnect with rural Americans?

“While land values are up and commodity prices strong, few in rural America feel prosperous, and the last couple of weeks have heightened uncertainty,” said Iowa Republican insider David Oman, a former GOP gubernatorial candidate.

“Sen. McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies probably gets buried by the much larger economic issues of the day,” Oman said. “Both candidates should keep rural voters in their vocabulary as they speak to these issues; rural voters often feel forgotten.”

While the first debate tonight is supposed to be about foreign policy and national security, it would be unthinkable for economic issues to be sidelined for the full 90 minutes considering the momentous decisions facing Congress right now.

In the arena of foreign policy, the only issues of specific interest to rural voters that might come up have to do with energy and trade, said Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in Lexington, Ky.

Al Cross

“Here’s a logical question on that front, one that folks in farm country deserve an answer to: How would each candidate resolve the new Farm Bill’s failure to comply with the World Trade Organization?” Cross said. “But I don’t expect such a question to come up Friday night because, as a national security and foreign policy issue, it ranks relatively low.”

Cross speculated that, on energy and the need for independence from foreign oil, Obama could point out McCain’s opposition to the ethanol subsidy and the renewable fuels standard, and McCain could counter by saying he opposed the Farm Bill as a whole because the subsidies are too large and gas prices are too high.

“That would be off-topic, and perhaps risk losing some farm-state votes, but in the current credit-crunch climate, where voters are fed up with lobbying interests’ influence in Washington, such an exchange about ethanol could benefit McCain,” Cross said.

In later debates, Cross sees more opportunity for questions on rural interests.

“I’d like to know if they favor a ‘hard cap’ on total subsidy payments to any one recipient,” Cross said. “(North Dakota Sen. Byron) Dorgan and (Iowa Sen. Charles) Grassley proposed a $200,000 cap, which failed to make it into the Farm Bill because it couldn’t get 60 votes in the Senate. Main reason: Opposition from cotton and rice farmers, whose states are not much in play this fall. Also, do they favor a ban on meatpacker ownership of livestock, which is squeezing independent producers as packers consolidate? The ban, pushed by Grassley, was removed from the Farm Bill in the conference committee.”

Carroll County Attorney John Werden, a Republican who served as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s county chair here during the caucuses, says rural voters are generally interested in the same things as urban voters. But there are some distinctions.

“Rural voters also tend to be more interested in economic polices spelled with a capital E for energy,” Werden said. “We have more single-family homes and drive cars to go to work. We want an economic policy with everything for energy. Do it all: drilling, wind, renewables and nuclear. But that doesn’t mean that we need huge subsidies for some particular industry when alternative technologies already make economic sense.”

Werden expects that McCain will stress traditional family values and support for a free market economy during the series of debates.

“We don’t believe in the ’soak the rich’ class rhetoric,” Werden said. “First, because we understand that there aren’t enough rich people to pay for all of Obama’s new programs, and second, because we like to pay our own way.”

John Werden

Werden acknowledged that Obama could have an opening in farm economics.

“People understand that an infant industry subsidy is very difficult to ever repeal even after the industry should stand on its own merits,” Werden said. “I agree that McCain’s ethanol stance may hurt him somewhat in Iowa. He needs to explain why it is that ethanol should no longer be subsidized with gas over 3 bucks a gallon.”

Oman, a Des Moines businessman who has worked for Republican governors, says Obama clearly has more work to do than McCain in Middle America.

“Most of the swing states are in the belt east to west from Pennsylvania to Minnesota, with the lone exception being Illinois,” Oman said. “These states and others are full of folks who live in small towns. Like other Americans, they are measuring Sen. Obama versus presidents they’ve watched over the years and their expectations for the next one.”

“Older, rural voters may gravitate to Sen. McCain as the older, more seasoned candidate during this time of incredible stress at home and overseas,” Oman predicted.

– Watching post caucus remarks, John Edwards looks like old news, and Hillary Clinton comes off as old-old news.

– Sen. Obama had perfect pitch this evening, and throughout his Iowa campaign. His is the Democratic campaign that truly points to the future.  As I mentioned to you earlier,
Obama’s campaign pulled in a number of Republicans in the DSM area.  I know many and am married to one of them.  I do not know a single Republican who attended a Democratic caucus on behalf of Sen. Clinton.

– Mike Huckabee is a genuinely likable guy and likeability is often underrated as a factor in politics. He tapped into something in our state, economic insecurity to be exact. He understood that small towns in Iowa are probably a lot like small towns in Arkansas.  They are a lot different from the wealthy suburbs of Detroit where Romney grew up and from Massachusetts, where he lives.

– The energy level was dramatically different in the two party caucuses in our neighborhood middle school. Democratic turnout probably four times larger, noisier and full of energy.  Not a good signal from this very swing, if not Republican leaning, precinct for the fall campaign.

“I continue to run into Republicans becoming open about supporting Obama this evening,” said David Oman, a former chief of staff to Iowa’s last two GOP governors, Terry Branstad and Bob Ray.

Oman notes that The Des Moines Register poll picked up some of this and other campaigns dismissed it.

Oman predicts non-Democrat support for Obama will be one of the stories tonight.

“This is real,” Oman told Iowa Independent.

“I have not made a determination on whom I will support,” Oman tells Iowa Independent. “Gov. Ray and I have had several talks this summer with the aim of landing in the same  campaign.”

Oman isn’t giving us any hints about the identity of the Republican who would benefit from Oman’s considerable resume and Ray’s iconic status.

But it was Oman who emailed me months ago and suggested that I pay some attention to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Oman had just had a sit-down with Huckabee and came away impressed.

“I have a great deal of respect for Mike Huckabee as do our previous two governors, Tom Vilsack and Terry Branstad, who obviously don’t agree on a fair number of issues,” Oman said.

Oman said he read Huckabee’s book, “From Hope To Higher Ground,” last February and found it “a little trite in a few spots, but full of logic, common sense, and hard-earned lessons.” 

“Huckabee has worked, hard, for everything he’s accomplished,” Oman said. “His life story is compelling beyond the obvious starter topic of his dramatic weight loss.”

Like others, Oman finds it interesting that Huckabee hails from Hope, Ark., home of Bill Clinton.

“The irony of two decade plus governors, very different and both on national stage, from the same tiny town is incredible, too,” Oman said.