After the last four months, it seems that many of the politicians who currently serve in the House and Senate are not up to the task.

In an Op-Ed published on the blog The Iowa Republican, Bill Salier of Everyday America, Danny Carroll of the Iowa Family Policy Center, Kitty Rehberg of the Eagle Forum of Iowa and Brad Cranston of Iowa Baptists for Biblical Values said the state’s Republican Party is “nearly devoid of leadership.”

With a handful of encouraging exceptions, the Republican Party and many of the Republicans in elected office, showed no willingness to fight and very little Constitutional literacy. The official party apparatus and the Senate Republicans, by and large, failed to rally around the marriage issue.

The exceptions include state Sen. Merlin Bartz, R-Grafton, who petitioned county recorders to ignore the ruling and refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, and state Sens. Randy Feenstra and David Johnson, who spoke out on the Senate floor on the marriage issue.

Senate leadership was also were criticized because a bill starting the process of amending the state’s constitution was never introduced like it was in the House by Rep. Dwayne Alons, R-Hull, and Rep. Delores Mertz, D-Ottosen.

Worse than the absence of any strategic or political victory on this issue in the Senate is the lingering possibility that when push comes to shove, many would rather protect legislative traditions than take a stand to protect traditional marriage. The Republican “leaders” in the Senate, and their caucus, must quickly educate themselves on their Constitutional duties and make a decision to lead before the next legislative session.

This marks the second time in a week that social conservatives have openly criticized state Republicans because of their actions on same-sex marriage. Christian radio host Steve Deace had similar complaints about Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley and Republican Party of Iowa Chair Matt Strawn during his drive-time program on Iowa’s largest radio station.

And as pointed out by the liberal blog Bleeding Heartland, a Virginia-based conservative group called Public Advocate of the United States paid for fliers calling McKinley a “chicken” for not doing more to push for a vote on a marriage amendment.

In an interview with the Sioux City Journal’s Bret Hayworth, McKinley said four attempts were made to bring an amendment to a vote, citing Democratic obstruction as the reason they never materialized.

“It appears unlikely,” said Danny Carroll, a former Republican legislator from Grinnell who serves as chairman of the Iowa Family Policy Center Action Board. “The legislature can still take it up in the 2010 session, but that may be difficult to accomplish as well.”

With Democratic legislative leaders coming out in support of the ruling, and Gov. Chet Culver saying he would be reluctant to amend the state’s constitution, same-sex marriage foes are left with few avenues for change in the short term.

State Reps. Dwayne Alons, a Hull Republican, and Dolores Mertz, an Ottosen Democrat, introduced a bill last month that would amend Iowa’s Constitution and define marriage as being between a man and a woman. In order for the bill to be debated this late in the legislative session, however, Democratic legislative leaders would have to introduce it to the floor, something Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, a Council Bluffs Democrat, flatly rejected earlier this week.

A public push against the ruling has been slow going, Carroll said, because a lot of people around the state had forgotten the issue was even before the Supreme Court.

“It takes so long for the court to issue a decision; I mean [Polk County Judge Robert] Hansen made his ruling in August 2007,” he said. “It’s been almost a year and a half. That’s a long time, so the ruling caught a lot of people by surprise. They had forgotten it was even there.”

Iowa’s social conservatives will be aided, however, by the National Organization for Marriage, a group that last year helped in the passage of California’s ballot initiative amending the state constitution to eliminate same-sex couples’ right to marry. The organization is launching a $1.5 million ad campaign in several states, including Iowa, hoping to energize opponents of same-sex marriage by making the case that it will directly affect their lives.

Several House Republicans have privately discussed using a procedural move to bring an amendment to the floor without legislative leadership’s approval. The move, called House Rule 60, allows any bill to skip the committee process and go directly to a floor debate if a majority of legislators support it. Former House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, a Sioux City Republican, attempted the same thing last year, falling two votes short in a much more narrowly divided House.

Ultimately, though Carroll said opponents would have to work to change the legislature if they hope to change the constitution, and with so much time before the 2010 elections, it is unclear if that will happen.

“With the passage of time, things have a tendency to cool off,” he said. “Whether or not the people of Iowa will see this as a priority leading into November of 2010 I’m not sure.”

The Teahen endorsement is relevant for two reasons:

First, the second district GOP primary was heated and at times nasty, and with Teahen, Vander Plaats has aligned himself with the losing side.  Perhaps fortunately for Vander Plaats, though, Teahen did win Linn County, which he will be in charge of for 2010, by about 2,500 votes.

Second, both Vander Plaats and Teahen supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.  If Vander Plaats can keep team Huckabee united and on his side, he could have the connections to win his party’s nomination.  Chief Huckabee Iowa strategist Eric Woolson helped Vander Plaats officially announce his candidacy, so anything is possible.

Team Huckabee did take a blow a few months ago when the Republican Party of Iowa elected Matt Strawn, a former supporter of Sen. John McCain, to serve as state chair.  Strawn’s main opponent was former State Rep. Danny Carroll, who worked closely with Vander Plaats as Huckabee’s Iowa co-chair.  But Huckabee’s coalition is still as strong as any within Iowa’s GOP base, and Vander Plaats seems poised to capitalize on it.

Matt Strawn

Strawn, 35, also served for a time as director of John McCain’s Iowa presidential campaign. His selection as leader of Iowa’s GOP follows a long, and occasionally ugly, few weeks of positioning and deal making that at one time involved eight men.

Ten members of the State Central Committee voted for Strawn while 7 voted for former state Rep. Danny Carroll. Jim Kurtenbach was elected co-chair and Matt Randall was picked to be treasurer.

Strawn now takes over leadership of a party that has suffered a tough string of defeats in the past few years, including the governor’s mansion, both houses of the state legislature and two U.S. House seats in 2006, and an easy victory for President-elect Barack Obama in November. Registered Republicans are also outnumbered by Democrats by more than 110,000.

Additionally, Strawn must heal a party plagued by infighting.

Over the course of his campaign, Strawn has emphasised improving the way the party uses technology, rebuilding the GOP infrastructure and enhancing communication.

Matt Strawn, left, and Danny Carroll.

Eight men were originally considered in the running. But with the recent announcement by state GOP Treasurer Gopal Krishna that he isn’t interested in the position and former Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate that he is pursuing the co-chair position, several members of the Republican State Central Committee told the Iowa Independent that smart money is on Carroll or Strawn, with a slight advantage to Strawn.

The race for party chair will have long-term ramifications for the state GOP. With a 2010 gubernatorial contest already starting to gear up and the next legislature in charge of redistricting, the Republican Party of Iowa must right its ship after two election cycles of defeat if it has any chance to retake the reins of power in the state.

Carroll is the consummate party insider. He served six terms in the Iowa House, rising in the ranks all the way to Speaker Pro Tempore. He sits on the board of the Iowa Family Policy Center, a conservative group with a lot of influence on the state’s Republican Party, and was a champion of social conservative issues during his time in the legislature, including a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage.

Strawn is co-owner of the Iowa Barnstormers Arena Football team and a former congressional aide in Washington, D.C. He is also the former state director for John McCain’s presidential campaign in Iowa. While he has a long history in politics, he is relatively new to most Iowa Republicans.  In an attempt to show how he is best suited to bring the party into the 21st Century technologically, Strawn made the announcement that he was running for chair on YouTube and launched his own campaign blog.

The two have few differences of opinion on the future of the party and both have focused on party mechanics as opposed to political issues in their attempt to sway Central Committee members. Both see technology as key to the GOP’s success and admit the party has been lacking in that department for many years. Both emphasize improving fundraising and healing the divides that have arisen after two consecutive elections cycles of GOP losses.

Where the two differ is in style. While Carroll went a more traditional route to the chairmanship, meeting with SCC members and party activits and working behind the scenes, Strawn toured the state as part of his “Pizza and Politics” events. Where Strawn hoped to build a grassroots following, Carroll already succeeded, evidenced by a large group of supporters at a recent candidate forum sporting “Danny” T-shirts.

Of the Central Committee members interviewed by the Iowa Independent, each said they would be happy with either Carroll or Strawn. But each also said both candidates have their down sides.

For Carroll, it’s the fact that he has lost two straight elections, the first as an incumbent in 2006 and again as a challenger in 2008. Some also said he really doesn’t represent the kind of change the party needs right now.

For Strawn, several members said he hasn’t been involved in state politics until deciding to run for chair and his previous experience in McCain’s Iowa campaign didn’t end very successfully. Strawn was part of the crew that was let go last summer when the Arizona senator’s campaign was in chaos.

When the Central Committee meets tomorrow there are still other candidates in the running – Andy Cable, chair of the Hardin County GOP; Christopher Reed, the 2008 candidate for Senate; Matt Randall, a Central Committee member; Linda Harrington, who worked for John Cox’s presidential campaign in Iowa; and Pate, despite his recent statements of being interested in the co-chair position.

The Central Committee will also chose a co-chair, treasurer and secretary Saturday. Pate and current co-chair Leon Mosely have both said they wish to serve in the position. Incumbent Treasurer Gopal Krishna and Secretary Lisa Smith are the only declared candidates for their positions.

The Republican Party State Central Committee is expected to pick a new leader Jan. 10.

Several members of the party’s Central Committee said Gopal Krishna, who served as the party’s co-chairman in the late ‘90s and currently serves as its treasurer, and Danny Carroll, the former speaker pro tempore of the Iowa House, are both close to garnering the number of votes needed to win the seat when the committee convenes Jan. 10.

But enough of the 17 committee members remain undecided that the door is still open for another candidate.

“I’m not sure there is a clear front-runner right now,” said Jason Hutchinson, a member of the party’s State Central Committee.

“I know there are some members who see a couple front-runners right now, but I honestly don’t. I think it is still too early to be determined. There are still several candidates who can get there.”

The names that come up most often as other potential chair candidates are Matt Strawn, co-owner of the Iowa Barnstormers arena football team, and Paul Pate, former Iowa Secretary of State and mayor of Cedar Rapids.

Several committee members said the voting process could be long and drawn out, with no candidate easily getting the majority needed to win the position.

Committee member Isaiah McGee, who also serves as a councilman in Waukee, said he is pleased with all the candidates but hasn’t heard enough from any one of them to make a decision. Additionally, he said if no one emerges who fits the qualifications the party needs, the process should start over.

“If at the end of the day, no candidate meets all the qualifications that we need as a party chairman then I think we should go back to the drawing board and keep looking,” McGee said.

Every candidate has pluses and minuses, McGee said, and if the vote goes to multiple ballots, it could be anyone’s race.

Hutchinson agrees, saying the committee members he has spoken with are open to any candidate, even if they say they already have a preference.

“A lot can change before we finally vote,” he said. “Once we see everyone’s plan for the party’s future, that could change everything. I personally remain completely undecided, and I think a majority of members feel the same way.”

Central Committee will host a forum from 10 a.m. to noon Saturday, Dec. 27 at GOP headquarters for the public to meet the candidates for chairman and co-chairman. But McGee said many members won’t be able to attend due to the meeting being scheduled so close to the holidays.

Party seeks unity

Several common themes emerged in conversations with committee members about what they are looking for in the next chair, the first and foremost being an ability to unify a fractured party.

Moderates within the party are arguing that the RPI’s drift to the right has hurt party in recent elections. Social conservatives counter that a party thrives when it sticks to its core principles, and in Iowa the GOP has been defeated of late because it has forsaken those values.

Each of the declared candidates seems likely to appeal to the social conservative wing of the party, but each has also expressed a desire to make the party more inclusive.

Hutchinson said the ability of the next chair to bring everyone under the same tent would determine the party’s success for years to come.

“This has become a fractionalized party,” Hutchinson said. “The last two cycles haven’t been particularly kind to Republicans, and when that happens, frustration develops. It tends to make us bicker back and forth. I’m looking for someone who will be able to unite us in a common mission and push forward. I don’t think the divide is as big as it has been made out to be.”

Krishna, the consummate party insider, has become a lightning rod for criticism from the conservative blogosphere, with most critics pointing to his tenure as co-chair, when his fellow Republicans accused him of trying to undermine the party’s leadership. Krishna is dismissive of the bloggers, saying they are trying to create a rift in the party.

But every candidate has his downside, McGee said. The question is what can they bring to the party, and that is what has to be measured, he said.

The party has fallen behind its rival in use of technology, Hutchinson said, which is another thing a party chair must address.

“But technology goes beyond simply having a Facebook page,” McGee said. “You should be able to answer why having a Facebook page is important. How can things like Twitter help us advance our party?”

Fundraising ability will also be key, Hutchinson said.

“Labor injected a lot of money into this last election cycle, so we have got to fund-raise heavily to make up for that advantage the Democrats have,” he said.

With a gubernatorial contest just around the corner, Hutchinson said it is important for a strong leader to be in place in order to ensure the GOP has a viable shot at taking back Terrace Hill.

“Right now our activists, our donors, even our leaders within the party are kind of waiting and looking for leadership to emerge,” he said. “I’m sensing there is a lot of energy out there to move the party forward, but everyone is waiting for a leader to move us forward.”

Ideology aside, the next chair has to be someone who can win elections, McGee said.

“That might be the most important thing,” he said. “You can be against abortion all you want, but you have to be in a position to do something about it.  You can be against the tax policy all you want, but you actually have to be in a position to change the policy. Winning is important, and it’s critical to find someone who understands how to win in the future.”

The Republican Party of Iowa is selecting a new chairman to replace Stewart Iverson.

While the party’s bylaws state that the State Central Committee vote on the chairmanship is to take place in January, some believe the matter could be taken up Saturday when the group holds its December meeting.

Republicans have already selected new leadership in both the House and the Senate, leaving the state party chairmanship as one of the final pieces to the puzzle in determining the future of a GOP that has fallen on hard times in Iowa.

Former Speaker Pro Tempore of the Iowa House Danny Carroll confirmed to the Iowa Independent that he is running for the position. Carroll served six terms in the Iowa House before being defeated by Eric Palmer in 2006. He was defeated a second time by Palmer in November.

“I saw an opportunity to offer my experience over the last 20 years in elected politics,” he said.

Carroll declined to comment further, saying he wants to respect the process of the State Central Committee.

State Central Committee member Mathew Randall also confirmed to the Iowa Independent that he wants to be the next RPI chairman. Randall is vice president of operations for Randall Corp. in Ames. He also declined to comment further, saying he did not wish to alienate any of the other candidates or his fellow Central Committee members.

Polk County Republican Party Chairman Ted Sporer has made his intentions to run for state chairman public on several occasions, both on his blog and on the radio program of Christian conservative Steve Deace. Sporer did not respond to several requests for comment.

Paul Pate, who has previously served as Iowa’s secretary of state and as mayor of Cedar Rapids, announced his desire to serve as RPI chair in an e-mail to several Central Committee members and county chairs. Included in that e-mail was his outline for “victory in 2010.”

Another candidate for the position is Christopher Reed, who ran an unsuccessful campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin. Reed, who owns a telecommunications business in Marion, said several Central Committee members have contacted him about running, and while he is interested and will serve if elected, he will not be actively campaigning for the position.

State GOP Treasurer Gopal Krishna has been the center of several rumors saying he is seeking the position. Some conservative bloggers, like Grant Young and anonymous blogger Krusty Konservative, had suggested Krishna and Sporer had partnered to try to push a vote on the chairman position before January.

Krishna told the Iowa Independent that there is no truth to the rumor, adding that the bloggers are trying to divide the party.

“We can express opinions without bashing people,” he said. “I try not to pay attention to them.”

Krishna added that while several members of the State Central Committee have approached him about running, he has not decided whether he will enter the race.

“Right now it’s too premature for me to even talk about it,” he said.

Carroll, Randall, Reed and Krishna all said they believe the vote on the chairmanship should follow the party’s bylaws and take place in January.

When the votes in Iowa were tallied, 70 percent of the 63 candidates endorsed by the Freedom Fund Political Action Committee, supported by Planned Parenthood of Greater Iowa, won their seats. Only four out of 10 state candidates endorsed by the Iowa Right to Life Coalition were elected.

In this election, just as in previous elections, those who sought to ban abortion used letter-writing campaigns to their advantage. The majority of letters to the editor dealing with reproductive health across the state were anti-abortion rights, for instance.

But despite the letters, voters appeared to turn away from socially divisive issues when making their decisions this year.

For example, Danny Carroll, a Republican candidate in Iowa House District 75 who lost Tuesday, actively campaigned on an anti-abortion message. His campaign sent two separate letters to voters that focused on an anti-abortion message, both from national anti-abortion groups like the National Pro-Life Alliance.

Dr. David Hartsuch, a Republican who lost his bid for U.S. House in the 1st District, used the Des Moines Register Soap Box at the Iowa State Fair to declare that “abortion is the leading controllable cause of breast cancer in America.” In addition to using the already debunked claim, Hartsuch ran on his anti-abortion record in Iowa Senate and even accused Arizona Sen. John McCain of barring him from an event because of Hartsuch’s strong social conservative stances.

If Hartsuch’s intention was to draw attention to the Republican presidential ticket’s lack of long-term support on social conservative issues, his efforts were likely thwarted by Iowa Right to Life’s leafleting of the Des Moines metro area with flyers that touted the McCain-Palin ticket.

Overall, it’s a touchy subject for Iowa Republicans, who ousted some moderates from top party offices during their summer convention in favor of others closely aligned with social conservative groups. Kim Lehman, executive director of Iowa Right to Life, and Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, now serve as the state’s two representatives on the Republican National Committee and on the Republican State Central Committee.

“If we’ve not bottomed out, if this isn’t bottomed out, this is what it looks like,” former Polk County Republican Chairman Ted Sporer told WHO-TV.

In the same piece Stewart Iverson, current Republican Party chairman, said that he sometimes thinks Republicans have “forgotten what we stand for.”

Perhaps the most telling statements in regard to the 2008 election and hot-button socially conservative issues, however, came from a letter written by Joy Corning, a former Iowa lieutenant governor and Iowa captain of the Republican Leadership Council.

“How can any group or person assume that a political candidate is pro-abortion?” Corning asked, referring to an Iowa Right to Life Coalition newsletter article that blasted 2nd District Congressional candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks as a “great pretender.”

“Pro-life can and does mean pro-choice to great numbers of Republicans,” Corning wrote. “It means they want government to let individual citizens decide on matters best left to each person’s dignity, freedom, ability and responsibility. … We are defined by principles that have been our foundation since the time of Lincoln — limited government, strong defense, fiscal responsibility, self-determination and opportunity. We are not defined by a National Right to Life survey.”

Iowa Democrats will continue to control the House (at least 56-44), Senate (at least 31-19), and Gov. Chet Culver is a Democrat. Only two statewide offices in Iowa are controlled by Republicans — Secretary of Agriculture and State Auditor. Neither of those offices were on the 2008 ballot.

John H. T. Main Residence Hall on the Grinnell College campus. The school has a long tradition of supporting liberal, Democratic candidates.

The students in question reside in Iowa House District 75, where a heated campaign is being waged between incumbent Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll.

In 2004, the same matchup was decided by a little more than 300 votes — in Carroll’s favor.  Palmer won by a slightly larger margin in their 2006 rematch.

Grinnell students have a long history of supporting Democratic candidates.  The elimination of 50 votes could tip the balance of the election to Carroll.

Poweshiek County Auditor Diana Dawley said the ballots were challenged on the grounds that the students do not reside at the address they listed when they registered to vote.

The students registered to vote at 1115 8th Ave., which is the address on campus where they receive mail. However, it is not the physical address of their dormitories, Dawley said, which brought on the challenges.

The Grinnell College Campus Democrats claimed in an online posting that students who voted early at satellite voting stations were told by Poweshiek County elections officials to register in that way because the inability of students to receive mail at their physical address made it difficult to produce proof of residency.

Dawley said a hearing on the challenged ballots would be held Nov. 6 at noon, at which time it will be determined whether the votes count. The auditor’s office will send out notices to the affected voters so that they can be present at the hearing.

Each of the ballot challenges were made individually in accordance with new Iowa election laws that make it illegal to issue a group or “blanket” challenge.

Iowa absentee ballot with outer envelope and secrecy envelope.

Dawley, a Democrat, then referred all questions to Poweshiek County Attorney Mike Mahaffey. The receptionist at Mahaffey’s law office in Montezuma said he would be unavailable until Tuesday morning. Mahaffey is a former Republican candidate for Congress.

Carroll said he was unaware of the challenges until told about it by the Iowa Independent, but that his only concern is that the law is obeyed.

“When it comes to voting, I just want everyone to follow the law,” he said.

In regards to the students claim that they received their instructions about which address to use for voter registration from county officials, Carroll said that’s something that would have to be resolved by the auditor’s office and would have nothing to do with his campaign.

Palmer’s campaign did not wish to comment on this story.

The presidential campaign of Democrat Barack Obama has targeted universities around the state in a massive get out the vote effort. The campaign’s spokeswoman, Jennifer Lee, said that the students in question are clearly eligible to vote and the campaign is “confident the matter will get resolved in a timely fashion.”

In other counties with larger student populations, such as Story and Johnson counties, there have been no reports of major ballot challenge efforts.

Democratic incumbent Eric Palmer, left, and Republican Danny Carroll will compete for the third time for the Iowa House District 75 seat.

Carroll, a Grinnell Republican, was a rising star in his party when he went from second in command of the state House majority to one of the GOP’s highest-ranking casualties in 2006, a year when he saw his party lose control of both houses of the state legislature and lose the governor’s race.

Carroll narrowly lost his seat to Palmer, an Oskaloosa Democrat whom Carroll had defeated in 2004 by 327 votes.  November marks their third matchup.

Just months after the 2006 race was complete, Carroll learned from the Atlantic Monthly’s Joshua Green that he had been targeted by out-of-state gay rights activists who had poured money into Palmer’s campaign coffers in an attempt to derail Carroll, an evangelical Christian with ties to the Christian Coalition (now known here as the Iowa Christian Alliance) and a high-profile proponent of a state constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.

Now, the two candidates are facing off again, this time with Palmer as the incumbent. During interviews with the Iowa Independent, both agreed social issues would take a back seat to kitchen table issues like taxes and education in the minds of voters this year.

But in a swing district where turning out the base is key, there is little doubt that at least some voters in the district will have social issues on their minds.

In an Oct. 6 appearance on WHO radio’s Jan Mickelson Show, for instance, Carroll and the conservative talk show host spent a lot of time discussing “homosexual activists” trying to influence Iowa’s elections to advance “the gay agenda,” as Mickelson called it.

“Storm troopers of the gay lobby were successful here,” Mickelson said.

“Out of state homosexual activists seemed to take quite an interest in Iowa legislative races, and mine in particular,” Carroll told Mickelson.  “It came as a surprise to me afterwards how many individuals were involved in that and where they were from.”

Days after the radio interview, Mickelson hosted a campaign event for Carroll in the southern part of the district, which includes portions of Poweshiek and Mahaska counties.

A district divided

Poweshiek County, which includes the city of Grinnell and a small, left-leaning liberal arts college, comprises much of the Democratic base.  County wide, there are 4,744 registered Democrats and 3,680 Republicans.

Mahaska County, on the other hand, has a higher percentage of social conservatives and typically votes Republican. There are 5,558 registered GOP voters in the county, compared to 3,478 Democrats.

Although the district includes only parts of both counties, the general trends county-wide tend to hold true, and it leads to elections that are close and hard fought.

Activists and observers on both sides agree that one of the biggest X-factors in district 75 is the student vote at Grinnell College, a private liberal arts college with a tradition of social activism. Its total student population is less than 1,500.

John H. T. Main Residence Hall on the Grinnell College campus. The school has a long history of supporting liberal, Democratic candidates.

“It’s a really good school, and the students like to think of it as the Harvard of the Midwest,” said Dan Bunnell, a former chair of the Poweshiek Republican Party and retired director of forensic activities at Grinnell College. “I think they’re wrong. It’s more the Berkeley of the Midwest.”

Bunnell said 83 percent of students at the school are from outside of Iowa, and the vast majority are “very liberal.”

“Those kids are very well organized,” he said. “And [the campus Democrats] push to have the kids vote in Iowa. They skew elections here that otherwise might tip to the Republican.”

Since the students will always reliably turn out and support a Democratic candidate, Republicans start at a disadvantage in the district, Bunnell said.

“You get 1,000 voters from the campus, who are voting straight-ticket Democrat in a county that usually has about 6,000 people turnout overall, and you have a huge impact,” Bunnell said.

But the school has been supporting liberal candidates for decades, and Carroll managed to win the district despite that fact for 12 years. So what changed in 2006?

“Republicans just didn’t turn out like they had in elections past,” said Mike Mahaffey, Poweshiek County attorney and former Republican candidate for Congress.

Turnout was down in 2006 from 2004, a typical occurrence in a non-presidential election cycle. But turnout in the Republican stronghold of Oskaloosa was only down 15 percent from 2004, compared with 25 percent in Grinnell. Turnout in Grinnell Ward 1, where the college is, was down nearly 20 percent. But district wide, Democrats saw a 22-percent drop in turnout from 2004 to 2006 while the GOP saw a 27-percent drop.

For his part, Carroll said 2006 just wasn’t a good year for Republicans in general.

“I came in on a wave in 1994,” he said. “I went out on another wave in the opposite direction.”

The Obama factor

Alec Schierenbeck, co-chair of the Grinnell Campus Democrats and vice president of the College Democrats of America, said he expects a much higher turnout from students this year than in 2006, with a lot of that credit going to the presidential campaign of Democrat Barack Obama.

“Obama ignited a flame in the student body,” Schierenbeck said. “We’re seeing a lot more people engaged than ever before.”

He believes they will support Palmer, citing issues like the minimum wage increase that Palmer supported or the work the Democratic legislature has done to slow the rising cost of education.

Barbara Trish, a political science professor at Grinnell College, said the divide in District 75 has less to do with “town vs. gown” and more to do with Oskaloosa vs. Grinnell. In fact, she said Democrats try to recruit candidates from Oskaloosa (like Palmer) in order to draw in supporters from the “Republican” part of the district that might not normally be mobilized.

“I recall that Democratic insiders in recruiting in the past thought that to recruit a Democrat outside of Grinnell made sense, given that Grinnell Democrats will typically offer a consistent level of support – almost guaranteed – to the nominee,” she said.

The Mahaska County Courthouse in Oskaloosa, a Republican stronghold in Iowa House District 75.

That theory proved true in 2006, as Palmer dominated Carroll in Poweshiek County, winning by 700 votes, and drew even in Mahaska County, which he lost in 2004 by 500 votes.

While same-sex marriage, along with presidential politics, may work to drive up turnout, it’s hardly the only contentious issue in the race.

“Rep. Palmer voted for a a bill that would change, modify, perhaps even eliminate Iowa’s Right to Work law,” Carroll said. “That’s a big difference between us right there.”

The legislation in question would have required certain non-union employees to pay union fees in return for services the union provides in certain workplaces.  It passed the Iowa Senate in 2007 but stalled in the House.

Republican leadership have put that bill on the front burner this year, hoping it can carry them back to the majority in Iowa’s House.

Palmer said he has never voted to overturn Right to Work or force anyone to join a union.

“The issue we looked at was to see if people who work in a union shop should contribute to costs of arbitration or negotiations,” he said.

Depending on the bill, Palmer said he would keep an open mind to Fair Share legislation, but he has “never talked about overturning right to work.”

Palmer said he is confident in his record, pointing to the establishment of the Iowa Power Fund to support renewable energy, the passage of the one-cent sales tax increase for school infrastructure repair and legislation that pledges to provide health insurance to every child in Iowa by 2011.

“I made promises in the campaign 2 years ago and I kept them,” Palmer said.

Carroll said regardless of the issues, the district 75 race would be a tossup again this year.

“For as long as I can remember, this district has been decided by a handful of votes,” he said. “This is a unique election, in that both candidates have a recent voting record that can be compared side-by-side. So, the voters will have a unique opportunity to compare my voting record with my opponent and decide based on the issues.”