Noting that it will take “deft footwork” to move from a successful primary campaign to a successful general election campaign, the anonymous gossip peddler for the capital city alt-weekly ticked through reasons for the Rants prediction.

Those reasons include, among others, Rants being the “least offensive” candidate to the GOP’s moderate wing; being well versed on the issues; his ability to raise money; and the fact that Culver is vulnerable. The biggest of all, though, could be what Skinny considers a lack of competition for the nomination.

On the right, Bob VanderPlaats is a proven loser. No one has heard of Jerry Behn. Rod Roberts can’t get traction. Yes, there’s Congressman Steve King — a darling of the right but a guy who seems to be too coy by half as he drops hints about whether he’ll run. And Rants is more knowledgeable on Iowa issues. The efforts of Doug Gross and his band of check-writers to find a moderate candidate aren’t getting anywhere. The group has met at least four times to go over a list of a score or so of possible candidates, but no consensus has emerged. The top names have said “no.” As of last week, those folks were talking about Farm Bureau president Craig Lang (“he’s rounded second and heading toward third” in his decision to run, says one moderate), Barnstormers owner and former legislator Jeff Lamberti, longtime party operative and small-town lawyer Mike Mahaffey, and name-from-the-past Rand Fisher. But Lang has to run again for his Farm Bureau job and would have to give up a nice salary to go into politics. Lamberti, who lost to Congressman Leonard Boswell in 2006, has flatly said no. Mahaffey has indicated he’s rather take on Boswell — who barely beat him in 1996 — than Culver. And Fisher, who now is president of a trade association of electric cooperatives and municipal utilities, is unknown to most Iowans under 50.

As always, though, Skinny hedged his/her bet.

All that being said, remember: You get what you pay for. And Cityview is free.

McCarthy, who was first elected in 2003, has discussed new careers with Gov. Chet Culver and others in the private sector, sources tell Skinny. The Des Moines Democrat serves as the second in command to House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque. His district is considered one of the safest Democratic districts in Iowa, encompassing a large swath of Des Moines’ southeast side. So while McCarthy’s departure won’t mean a net loss for the Democrats, it could have impact on the workings of the House caucus.

If he does leave, it probably won’t break the heart of House Speaker Pat Murphy, who, no matter what Iowans for Tax Relief says, is not a jack-booted Nazi. The loafered American and McCarthy aren’t particularly close — Murphy is a voluble guy who wears his heart on his sleeve; McCarthy is a reticent guy who keeps his feelings to himself — and as a team they haven’t been particularly effective even though they have 56 of the 100 House members. They couldn’t round up enough votes to pass a bill desperately wanted by their labor backers, for instance, and labor’s other bills appear to be dead. But if McCarthy does bow out, there’s no obvious successor, which could make Murphy’s job even harder.

McCarthy did not respond to a request for comment from the Iowa Independent.

Skinny also reports that Iowa Farm Bureau President Craig Lang considering a run for governor, despite the fact that it would mean challenging Culver, the very guy who appointed him to the Iowa Board of Regents. Lang is the latest name to be floated as a possible Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2010, along with U.S. Rep. Steve King, state Rep. Christopher Rants, Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey, state Auditor David Vaudt and Ames businessman Bruce Rastetter. Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats has already formed an exploratory committee to run in 2010.

Sen. Tom Rielly, chair of the Senate Transportation Committee, said bills are being drafted in both legislative chambers to increase the state's fuel tax.

Democratic Gov. Chet Culver has said repeatedly that he does not want lawmakers to raise the gas tax. He is joined in his opposition by Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, along with some conservative lawmakers in both legislative chambers.

Supporters of the increase include Democratic leadership in both the House and the Senate, with Senate President Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg, becoming the issue’s champion when he declared a “war on potholes” on the legislative session’s opening day.

But the Democrats aren’t alone. Conservative groups like the Iowa Farm Bureau and state chambers of commerce have also supported the idea, and several prominent Republicans, including Rep. Dave Tjepkes, the ranking Republican on the House Transportation Committee, and potential gubernatorial candidate and state Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, have said they think the idea has merit.

Even the group Iowans for Tax Relief, a highly influential organization within the Republican Party of Iowa, has not come out against the tax increase. It has announced it will remain neutral on the plan.

While it appears everyone agrees that Iowa’s roads and bridges are in desperate need of repair, how to pay for it could end up becoming the showdown that defines the 2009 General Assembly.

Is it good policy?
Supporters of the fuel tax contend that Iowa needs more money to maintain the road system and make improvements to support economic development. A 10-cent increase in fuel taxes would raise an additional $210 million annually for city, county and state road projects, said state Sen. Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa, chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee.

One of the biggest selling points of the increase, Rielly said, is that studies show 20 percent of the new funds will be paid by motorists from outside Iowa.

“The average Iowan would only end up paying about $52 more a year than they do right now,” he said. “I don’t think people should have to pay anything more, but if we don’t pay now we will all pay much more later.”

Iowa motorists now pay estimated state taxes of 21 cents per gallon for regular gasoline; 19 cents per gallon for ethanol-blended gasoline; 17 cents per gallon for E-85 fuel; and 22.5 cents per gallon for diesel fuel. The state hasn’t raised the tax since 1989.

If federal gas taxes are added, Iowa motorists pay a total of 40.1 cents per gallon, according to a study by the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group. The Iowa gas tax total ranked 32nd nationally and was below the national average of 48.4 cents per gallon.

Gov. Chet Culver made his case for a $700 million state bonding proposal while surrounded by stud-bare and plastic-covered walls at the Cedar Rapids Public Works Building. (photo by Lynda Waddington)

A possible gas tax increase failed to gain traction among legislators last year amid a lack of support from Culver and high prices at the gas pump.

“Last year the governor said ‘no,’” said Craig Lang, president of Iowa Farm Bureau. “This year he has never used the words ‘under no circumstances.’ I think with enough bipartisan support he would sign it.”

In lieu of a gas tax increase, lawmakers last year approved increases in vehicle registration fees expected to gradually generate $165 million annually for road projects. But a report in December by the Iowa Department of Transportation said road and bridge conditions are worsening because of insufficient investment and the impact of extreme weather.

These problems are coupled with rising construction costs and a flattening of state and federal revenues, which reduces the buying power of state and local agencies, Rielly said.

Over the past five years, the costs associated with the primary materials used in road construction have increased by an average of 12 percent per year. At the same time, Rielly said, revenues from the road fuel tax have remained relatively static, growing only 1 percent per year.

According to DOT data, costs for roadway excavation have more than doubled. In 1989, the last time the fuel tax was increased, $9.90 bought 10 cubic yards. The same amount in 2006 paid for only 4 cubic yards. Asphalt prices have doubled as well, with $209.50 buying 10 tons in 1989 to 5 tons in 2006. Cement, reinforced steel, structural steel and concrete prices also have increased.

“The fuel tax is the only thing I’ve seen that’s fair and equitable to pay for vital infrastructure needs,” said Rielly, who also believes bills are being crafted in both chambers and should be ready to be assigned to subcommittees soon.

The agricultural economy
“I recently went to an agriculture forum in Pella,” said Lang. “The thing everyone wanted to talk about was roads. They didn’t want to talk about the damage to crops caused by last summer’s flooding. They wanted to talk about the terrible state of rural roads.”

The agricultural economy will suffer if Iowa continues to ignore the state of its roadways, Lang said.

Many observers believe one reason Culver opposes the increase is that he is seeking re-election next year. A Des Moines Register poll last year found that a majority of Iowans do not support a gas tax increase. However, agricultural concerns have Northey, one of Culver’s potential rivals in 2010, saying the time is right to move on the tax.

“I think generally with [agriculture] folks, a pay-as-you-go gas tax makes the most sense to address those road concerns,” Northey said.

“I think everyone has been looking around for other options and there is no magic pot of money sitting around to do those things. I think most folks like the consistency of a gas tax that is going to be there not only this year and next year but as other projects need to happen it will be there down the road. “

Northey told the Iowa Independent that the fact that money from the gas tax would go into the road use fund is also a plus, since it is constitutionally protected from being spent on anything except road and bridge repair.

Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey

“The state of our roads has a lot of people in the state that would usually oppose something like this starting to support it,” he said. “I think everybody knows we have to do something or we’ll end up with real problems down the road.”

Not everyone is convinced, first and foremost among them Culver.

“Given that the nation is in the midst of a recession, the governor does not feel this is a time when people should pay higher taxes, whether at the gas pump or anyplace else,” said Phil Roeder, Culver’s deputy chief of staff.

“With so much financial uncertainty across the country, we want to make sure people can hold on to their hard-earned money.”

Roeder said Culver’s $700 million bonding proposal is a better way to address a wide range of infrastructure projects, including roads and bridges, and does so with existing revenue, not tax increases.

House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, said two separate bonding bills will be put forward, one costing $160 million to pay for projects approved last year and another to deal with infrastructure needs. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, said opinions vary on whether bonding and a gas tax increase are mutually exclusive, which is why legislation to fund infrastructure repair will take a while to craft.

Rielly said he would like to see more detail to Culver’s bonding plan and would hate to see the money spent on roads that have to be fixed again in 10 years.

“We will still be paying for them in 20 years,” he said. “But there are lots of other projects the money could pay for.”

The bonding money could feasibly be spent on projects that do not include roads and bridges, Rielly said.  He cited a possible new sewer system in Ottumwa that is estimated to cost $180 million as an example of ways bonding could have a positive impact.

“Sewer systems, power grids, projects like this could be good candidates for the bonding money,” Rielly said.

Senate Minority Leader McKinley is opposing both bonding and a gas tax increase, saying the state can do a better job prioritizing existing budget expenditures without increasing its debt or the tax burden on citizens.

Opponents also contend that gas tax collections are slowing as cars get more miles on each gallon, and as gas prices force Americans to reduce their driving. Hitching Iowa’s infrastructure future to this funding source could have dire consequences down the road.

But the House Transportation Committee’s Tjepkes, a Republican from Gowrie, said on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” that he believes Republicans will be willing to work with Democrats on the gas tax.

“I would tend to support a gas tax increase under certain circumstances,” he said.

Ultimately, most agree it will be up to Culver. The idea will die if he indicates he will veto any gas tax increase, something he’s stopped short of so far.

“I’ve said to our caucus it’s a three-legged stool, the House, the Senate and the governor’s office, and any time you leave one leg of the stool out you kind of fall down on a painful spot,” Gronstal said.

Presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain visited the Iowa State Fair on Friday.

U.S. Sen. John McCain promised to open new markets for Iowa agricultural products during a visit to the Iowa State Fair.

“I get a chance to come here and meet and greet the real America, the people that are providing products all over this world,” said McCain. “All over the world, people are consuming the quality products that are produced right here in the great state of Iowa. And I want to say thank you for that. And my mission and my job as president of the United States, one of them, will be to make sure that every market in the world is open to your products.”

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee spoke to a crowd of several hundred people who had gathered at the Des Moines Register building at the fair, emphasizing the value that can be added to pork products when new markets are opened up around the world. McCain was joined by his wife, Cindy, as well as fellow Republican, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey.

Iowa Farm Bureau Federation President Craig Lang also stood with McCain during the speech. Northey and Lang — two long-time, vocal supporters of government programs that promote ethanol –applauded as McCain discussed his views on energy policy, despite McCain’s opposition to federal subsidies for renewable fuels.

“I want to tell you, we will disagree from time to time,” said McCain. “I believe in renewable fuels. I don’t believe in ethanol subsidies. But I believe in renewable fuels. I believe we have to do all of those things to restore our economy, but my friends, we will disagree on a specific issue, and that’s healthy.”

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain speaks to the crowd at the Iowa State Fair. He was joined by Iowa agriculture secretary Bill Northey and Iowa Farm Bureau Federation president Craig Lang.

The Arizona senator said that the United States needs to enact an “all of the above” strategy to attempt to achieve energy independence. “We must achieve energy independence,” he said. “I call it the Lexington Project. It’s got to be wind, tide, solar, nuclear. Nuclear power has to be part of any solution. My friends, we’re a long way from the ocean, but we’ve got to drill offshore and we’ve got to drill now.”

McCain ridiculed a statement from his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who had called on Americans to check for proper tire inflation to reduce fuel costs. “My friends, I’m all in favor of inflating our tires, don’t get me wrong. But that’s a public service announcement, it’s not an energy policy.”

The presidential candidate also visited various Iowa State Fair landmarks Friday, constantly surrounded by curious fair-goers as he viewed such displays as the famous Butter Cow and the 1,250-pound winner of the largest boar contest.

Following McCain’s speech, Iowa Independent interviewed Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan and Iowa House Agriculture Committee Chairman Rep. John Whitaker.

Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan and Iowa House Agriculture Committee chairman Rep. John Whitaker respond to McCain's visit at the fair.

Whitaker said McCain is apparently out of touch with what is happening right now in the grain markets. “He talked about the export market, but he apparently didn’t check the markets this morning,” said Whitaker. “The dollar went up and corn and beans just plummeted overnight because of that. You know, they were up yesterday, then boom. One little bit of news on the dollar and then you have a lack of exports because of that. And our export market dries up like a hot August wind.”

Brennan said McCain’s opposition to renewable fuels programs in the past has put the Republican candidate at odds with Iowa’s values. “He’s against the farm bill and against the ethanol subsidies, and has been from the get-go,” said Brennan. “He’s just wrong for Iowa. He’s always been wrong for Iowa.”

Brennan went on to say McCain’s 10th-place finish in the Republican Straw Poll last year and his fourth-place finish in the Iowa Republican caucuses is enough to show that the candidate does not understand Iowa’s values. “Iowans, the little bit they know of him, they haven’t liked him,” said Brennan. “And for good reason. He doesn’t stand up for Iowa values.”

Now that there is a serious shortage of livestock feed in the market due to terrible weather this year, Iowa Farm Bureau Federation President Craig Lang is calling for an immediate release of all CRP acres in Iowa.

Lang spoke about CRP Saturday at a tour of a flooded farm in Marion County, where Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey were visiting with area farmers about the disastrous floods.

“Because we’ve lost about 16 percent of our forage ground in Iowa because of flooding, and also because of this impact that we’re going to see to the livestock industry with higher grain prices and lack of forage availability, Farm Bureau sent a letter to [U.S. Secretary of Agriculture] Schafer on Wednesday asking for immediate release of CRP for haying and grazing,” said Lang.

Many livestock producers are currently operating at a loss due to the high price of feed.

Livestock feed prices have shot to record levels in recent weeks because an estimated 10 percent of Iowa’s corn crop and 20 percent of the soybean crop was either flooded or never even planted. Acres that were planted late or replanted after flooding won’t produce normal yields, and it all adds up to a shortage of livestock feed.

Prices for meat at the grocery store are actually expected to drop in the coming months as many major livestock producers are selling off their herds because of the high price of feed. This situation is expected to cause a temporary abundance of meat products, followed by a shortage that could then send grocery bills sky-high.

Recognizing the problem earlier this year, the USDA had announced a release of all CRP acres for haying and grazing that would begin on Aug. 2. The Aug. 2 date was chosen because it would allow the primary nesting season for birds to reach its full potential.

Any farmer who has land enrolled in CRP will be required to pay a $75 fee to be able to cut hay or use it for pasture, but they will not receive any reduction of their regular CRP program payments.

The land can’t be mowed for hay or grazed if it is in wetlands or filter strips along streams and ponds. These types of lands are usually part of the Continuous CRP program and are not included in the release.

But Aug. 2 is too late in the year to provide much high-quality livestock feed. “This would really make a big difference here in southern Iowa, but it needs to be done now,” said Max Smith, a southern Iowa farmer and grain elevator operator. “But if you wait a month, that quality of hay won’t be very good.”

The USDA has also released CRP acres for grazing-only in certain counties that have been declared disaster areas, but Lang said the entire state’s CRP acres need to be opened up now for hay and grazing to release pressure on livestock feed markets.

“So you’re saying we should just move the Aug. 2 date up to now?” asked Harkin.

Lang said “yes” and the room full of farmers nodded their heads.

“Well, let’s see if we can get this done right away,” Harkin replied.