With the last primaries scheduled on June 3, and Clinton campaign chair Terry McAuliffe saying the nomination will wrap up by June 15, the state convention could see a fight-to-the-death battle for 11 national delegates. But if, say, Clinton leaves the race on something like June 13, the convention on June 15 could be the first opportunity for Democrats anywhere to begin the reuniting process.

State Convention, Des Moines, June 14
State Delegates	2500
VIABILITY	375
At Large National Delegates	10

	State Delegates	National Delegates
Clinton	784	3
Edwards/Uncommitted	417	2
Obama	1299	5

As the math stands now, Obama would win five at-large national delegates, Clinton would gain three. John Edwards, viable on his own without help from another campaign, would get two. There is no scenario in which a candidate picks up only one delegate; the point of rounding up to one delegate is well below the 15 percent minimum for viability.

The state convention will also elected six pledged party leader and elected official delegates, which should break down as Obama 3, Clinton 2, and Edwards 1. There is also one add-on delegate, named by neutral state party chair Scott Brennan and ratified by the convention. The add-on delegate would need to be acceptable to the Obama campaign, since he controls more than 50 percent of the convention.

For Edwards to lose viability, he would have to lose 50 people at the state convention. The former candidate lost almost no one at last weekend’s congressional district conventions, except in the 4th District where he was not viable.

All this assumes that everyone shows up and that no one switches preference. That’s pretty close to what happened last weekend. All or nearly all of the 2,500 seats at the five districts were filled. There were small shifts to Edwards from Clinton in the 1st District and from Obama in the 5th District, to make or keep Edwards viable. He was on the bubble of viability in both places.

In the 4th District, where Edwards was well short of viable, a deal between Clinton and Edwards to make Edwards viable failed when Clinton supporters insisted that the Edwards national delegate be chosen from among the Clinton supporters who would have switched over. The Edwards group refused that deal, and most of them joined Obama. In the other four districts, the Edwards supporters stayed steadfast.

As for Iowa’s superdelegates, two remain up for grabs: party chair Scott Brennan and  Senator Tom Harkin. Harkin recommitted to staying neutral last weekend.

In addition to Machacek and Braley, Obama is backed by superdelegates Governor Chet Culver, Congressman Dave Loebsack, state treasurer Mike Fitzgerald, and state party vice chair Sarah Swisher. Clinton is supported by Congressman Leonard Boswell, state senate majority leader Mike Gronstal, and DNC member Sandy Opstvedt.

So when I finally got home, and could access the national political blogs that for some reason the Mount Vernon School District’s wireless network had blocked, what did I read?

“Obama loses one.”

It’s the latest example of national political writers just not understanding Iowa’s caucus and convention process.On Thursday, I published a comprehensive look at the math that showed Obama taking 15 delegates, Clinton winning nine, and Edwards definitely getting two, with three delegates still in play, and one more delegate possibly shifting pending deals between candidates.

But national estimates ignored things like deals between candidates and the possibility of people just not showing up, and acted as if the numbers were set in stone. Those estimates allocated two more delegates to Obama and one to Edwards, for a 17-9-3 estimate.

On Saturday, Edwards gained viability in the 1st District, where he had been two people short of viability coming out of the Mar. 15 county conventions. My estimates had listed this seat as being in question, but national reports assumed Edwards would not be viable and that Obama would gain the delegate. This is what sites such as MyDD and Democratic Convention Watch are listing as the Obama “loss.” But like the old blues song says, you can’t lose what you never had. In fact, the truly accurate Iowa numbers before Saturday were Obama zero, Clinton zero, Edwards zero.

Meanwhile, in the 4th District, a deal that Iowa Independent reported between Edwards and “another campaign” — math would indicate Clinton — failed to materialize, and Obama gained a fourth delegate which I had listed as in doubt. But national sites, pretending Edwards did not exist, had already allocated this delegate to Obama, and are failing to report it as a gain.

It was a bit more fair for national sites to list the Edwards delegate in the 5th District as an Edwards hold. However, coming out of the county conventions Edwards was only viable by one person, so I had listed the seat as in question. That was a judgment call, as opposed to the inaccuracy of reports on the 1st and 4th Districts.

Senator Tom Harkin told 2nd Congressional District delegates at Saturday’s convention that he’s still staying neutral in the nomination fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The senator also said rulebreaking states should not be counted at the national convention, and he hopes superdelegates are abolished.

Key quotes from Harkin’s speech, the first of five he delivered at all of Saturday’s conventions:“I am determined to stay neutral as a superdelegate until all of the people’s votes have been counted. We set up rules. Every state signed off, so every state ought to have their say.”

“That also means that states who do not abide by the rules shoud not be counted.” Partial standing ovation from most delegates.

“I”ve never even been comfortable being a superdelegate, hopefully the convention will get rid of them.” Applause.

“Some of you are passionate for Barack, some of you are passionate for Hillary, but once our nomination is decided we ought to put our differences aside and be a united party.”

Rolling into an extended metaphor about farm cats. “All that screeching and yowling just means there’s gonna be more cats.” With this he touts the Dem’s voter registration edge. “Together, we are unstoppable.”

The remarks on the presidential race concluded Harkin’s speech. Before that, he bashed Republican John McCain a bit and made his own case as he faces re-electon

“Instead of lowering our standards for recruiting privates and corporals, how about raising our standards for recruiting our next commander in chief.”

McCain 5 word health care plan: “Pray you don’t get sick.”

“Change is not something that blows with the wind. A weathervane changes every day. Change needs to be rooted in values.” This launched his case for himself. “I want to use my seniority to help a new Democratic congress and a new Democratic president.” He did not name either name.

Massive standing ovation to “End this nutty war in Irag and bring our troops home.” Audience then hushed as he discusses the troops. Namechecks Boswell on the Omvig suicide prevention bill.

“I may a bit grayer, and I hope wiser, than when some of us first met. But I have the same fighting spirit when it comes to standing up for Iowa values.”

They say half the game is just showing up, and that’s true for Iowa’s Democratic congressional district conventions. The other half may be tactical politics, as supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama try to deny the other campaign any advantage.

The most important factors in determining how many national delegates Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and, yes, former candidate John Edwards get on Saturday will be which campaign does the best job of getting its share of the 2,500 delegates to travel to the conventions, and who can quietly cut the best deals.

A district-by-district review of the delegate totals shows that three of the 29 national delegate seats to be elected Saturday are up for grabs. One additional delegate may be in competition, if a deal between campaigns works out. As it stands, Obama can expect 15 national delegates, Clinton will have nine, and Edwards will earn at least two.

A 4th District Edwards supporter said there was a conference call Wednesday night between Edwards backers and “another campaign.” Math would indicate that the “other campaign” was Clinton’s. And a 1st District activist reported that the Clinton campaign offered to lend supporters to Edwards.

4th District Edwards supporter Sam Juhl, the mayor of Roland and an Iowa house candidate, said there was a Wednesday night conference call between Edwards supporters and “another campaign” to discuss a deal. “I think there may be viability” in the 4th District, said Juhl, despite numbers out of county conventions that show Edwards well short of viability there.

In the 1st District, where Edwards is on the cusp of viability, an Edwards county leader reported that the Clinton campaign has offered to lend people to keep or make Edwards viable if needed.

“Hillary is out there trying to help out Edwards for whatever reason, offering to give us people,” said Highland Nichols of Clinton. “The other camps want to see Edwards viable.”

There’s a long caucus and convention history of deal making, where one group joins another for a share of the delegates, and those lurkers can always switch back to their original choice at the next level. Edwards supporters may also be lurking in the Obama or Clinton camps, from counties where Edwards was not viable.

From the Clinton campaign’s perspective, every delegate Edwards wins is a delegate Obama doesn’t get. At least, that holds true in two districts where a viable Edwards helps Clinton. In one district a viable Edwards would help Obama.

In a normal year, three or four delegates wouldn’t matter much. But three and a half months after the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the 2008 Democratic race is anything but normal. To put the importance of these delegates in perspective, note that the entire state of Texas wound up with only a five delegate split between Clinton and Obama. 

The die will be cast once delegate seating and realignment are completed, by mid-afternoon. After that, the math is complete and the delegates are allocated. The lengthiest battles are not between campaigns, but within campaigns, as district delegates struggle through multiple ballots to decide who actually gets to take the coveted trip to the August national convention in Denver.

Delegates will also choose party officers and debate the platform, though platform debate has simmered down in the past decade as the party has tightened restrictions on the length of the final platform.

Before we plunge into the district numbers, here’s how it works. On caucus night, caucus goers elected delegates to county conventions, which were held Mar. 15. Those county conventions elected the delegates who will attend Saturday’s conventions, and Saturday’s conventions will choose national delegates. The number of district delegates, and national delegates, in each district is determined by past voting performance.  Another 16 national delegates will be chosen at the June 14 state convention.

Each campaign has many alternates, who can fill the seats of delegates who don’t show up. Presidential preference is more important than geography. For example, if an Obama delegate from Lee County doesn’t show up to the 2nd District convention in Mount Vernon, the Obama group will first try to seat an Obama alternate from Lee County.  If that fails, an Obama alternate from Johnson County could be seated. A Clinton alternate from Lee County could not get the seat.

Viability is determined the same way it is on caucus night. A candidate needs 15 percent of the convention to be viable, otherwise his or her supporters must move to a second choice or pick off supporters of other candidates to become viable.

Now let’s look at each district. All the viability numbers below assume that every seat is filled, either by a delegate or an alternate. That rarely happens in a normal year, but is quite possible this time. If seats go unfilled, the viability number goes down to 15 percent of the number of filled seats. Think of these numbers as a point spread rather than a final score.

John Edwards won 77 delegates at county conventions, and two uncommitted delegates were elected out of Butler County where Edwards was non-viable. If Edwards fills all his seats, and is joined by those two uncommitteds, and only eight Clinton or Obama seats go unfilled, he could net a national delegate at the Dubuque convention.

But if everyone shows up, Edwards will fall just two people short of viability, and his supporters will determine who gets the district’s sixth national delegate. Obama has the edge. He only needs 24 of the Edwards supporters to gain his fourth delegate, while Clinton needs to attract 56 of the 79 Edwards and uncommitted delegates to get a 3-3 national delegate split. The easier road might be to lend people to Edwards, as Nichols reports, to keep the delegate out of Obama’s hands.

Edwards’ efforts at viability are disadvantaged by the Dubuque location. He was non-viable at the Dubuque county convention, and of the 159 delegates who are from Dubuque or the four adjacent counties, only 12 support Edwards. Most Edwards supporters will have to make the trek up Highway 61 from Scott and Clinton counties.

But Clinton County’s Highland Nichols says the Edwards supporters will be in Dubuque. “I’ve talked to several other county organizers, and at last count I think we can make (viability),” he said. “We’ll have all 11 Edwards delegates (from Clinton County) attend or have alternates.”

Obama’s strength is relatively even across the district, while Clinton is slightly more popular in the counties closer to Dubuque.

“I could live with Hillary a lot easier than Obama” if Edwards falls short, Nichols said.   “John Edwards started out talking about change and hope before Obama even announced. I don’t think Obama’s had an original idea since he’s started.”

Things are relatively simple in the seven-delegate 2nd District, which will likely shake out Obama 4, Clinton 2, Edwards 1. Edwards forces in the district are well organized and well above viability. “We are anticipating keeping most if not all of our group together, both Johnson County and district-wide,” said professor David Redlawsk, Johnson County Edwards chair.

The Mount Vernon location helps Edwards, who was strong in Johnson and Linn Counties, and hurts Clinton, whose was stronger in Lee, Des Moines, and the smaller rural counties in the southern part of the district.

Two-thirds of the 3rd District’s 527 delegates are from Polk County.  With the convention in West Des Moines, that makes geography a minor factor that only slightly aids Obama. The likely outcome is Obama 3, Clinton 2, and Edwards 1. The 3rd District’s fireworks are more likely to revolve around the Leonard Boswell-Ed Fallon congressional primary.

The Edwards and uncommitted forces need to pick up 18 delegates to reach viability. (The six uncommitteds are from Warren County, where Edwards was nonviable at the county convention.) Assuming everyone shows up, either Clinton or Obama could throw Edwards the 18 people he needs, without losing a delegate themselves.

If there are no deals and Edwards is not viable, Obama only needs to pick up 18 Edwards and uncommitted supporters to get a fourth national delegate, while Clinton would need 42 Edwards backers to get a third delegate. Given that math, it seems likely that Clinton would send supporters to Edwards to keep him viable, rather than giving Obama a shot at the fourth delegate.

Longtime party activist Margo McNabb of Story County says Edwards forces are making calls in the 4th District and “I plan to stand for John Edwards” at the convention. McNabb said she didn’t have a sense of where Edwards’ support would go if he’s not viable.

In general, Edwards backers moved heavily to Obama rather than Clinton at county conventions. In the 4th district’s Marshall County, Obama dominated the convention three to one when almost all the Edwards delegates joined his group. The question is, how many Obama-leaning Edwards people have already switched, and how much more can Obama gain? Or will Edwards lurkers in the Obama camp go back to their first choice?

Geography helps Obama, as he won heavily in Story County, next door to Boone. A big pool of Story alternates could help fill up empty Obama seats from farther away.

The most spread-out district is also the one where who shows up will make the most difference. John Edwards is razor-thin viable. If all 359 seats are filled, Edwards is viable by one seat, with 55 delegates. (There are another three uncommitted delegates from three counties where Edwards was not viable.) He and Clinton would each get one delegate, while Obama would win two.

If Edwards is non-viable, the math favors a 2-2 split. Let’s assume Obama and Clinton fill their seats, while Edwards falls just one person short of viability and seats 53 district delegates. Obama would need all 53 to get a third national delegate, and Clinton would need only one to gain the 2-2 split. This makes the tactical game the mirror image of the 1st and 4th Districts; it makes sense here for Obama to lend Edwards people, to deny Clinton the second delegate.

Geography helps Clinton, who was strong in Pottawattamie County. Of the 95 delegates who are from Pottawattamie or bordering counties, she leads Obama 43 delegates to 36, with 16 for Edwards.

“The battle’s in the House, that’ll be the hot one,” said State Rep. Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton at last weekend’s 2nd Congressional District convention. Kaufmann’s state senator, Jim Hahn, was standing alongside him and didn’t dispute that assertion.Hahn’s Senate District 40 is a worry spot for the GOP. The first-term senator, who served in the House for 12 years before that, faces a challenge from Democrat Sharon Savage. Both are from Muscatine, a longtime Republican stronghold which has been trending Democratic in recent years. The Democrats won Hahn’s House seat in 2004 when he moved to the Senate, and took over the county Board of Supervisors in 2006.

“I’ll get started on my campaign business soon,” said Hahn, who was hoping the legislative session would wrap up within the week. “Gov. Gronstal hasn’t decided what he wants to do yet.”

Hahn was referring to his Democratic Senate colleague, majority leader Mike Gronstal, who represents the Council Bluffs-based District 50. Gronstal’s opponent, school board member Mark Brandenburg, is on the Republican’s wish list in a race where outside interest groups may play a role.

“We’re down to about as few senators as we’re ever going to have,” said Republican senate candidate Joe Childers of the Senate, where Democrats hold a 30 to 20 edge. Childers is favored in a primary against Karla Sibert in District 18, where incumbent Mary Lundby is retiring. The Democrats are united behind state representative Swati Dandekar of Marion. Dandekar is favored for a Democratic gain, but Childers says she is “very beatable.”

“If you look at the demographics of the district, they lean conservative,” said Childers. “And I don’t think people are aware of how liberal Swati’s voting record is.”

As for his primary opponent, Childers said he didn’t know much about Sibert except “she was registered as an independent until a couple weeks before she filed.”

Another Republican candidate who switched registration was Cascade car dealer Dave McLaughlin, who had been a Democrat until recently. McLaughlin has a primary against Wyoming Republican who may have some yard sign problems; Gary Lee Culver is blessed or cursed with the same last name as the Democratic governor. The primary winner faces Democratic incumbent Tom Hancock, who narrowly defeated GOP incumbent Julie Hosch in 2004.

Republican insiders are confident about Senate District 6, where incumbent Republican Thurman Gaskill is retiring and former Senator Merlin Bartz is on the comeback trail. Bartz, R-Grafton, was the party insider choice for secretary of agriculture in 1998, but lost in the primary. He was paired with Gaskill in the 2002 redistricting, but resigned to take a Bush administration agriculture job. The Democrats are running Doug Thompson, 58, a Kanawha farmer. Democrat Berl Priebe held a similar district slightly to the west of the current turf for awhile, finally losing in 1996.

The GOP also expects to hold Senate District 48, where Creston incumbent Jeff Angelo is stepping down. Clarke County treasurer Kim Reynolds of Osceola is favored in the primary over contractor Jim Parker of Villisca. Democrats have a three-way primary in the seven-county district.

A top pickup prospect for Republicans is Senate District 42. Davenport alderman Shawn “the Hammer” Hamerlinck is favored in the primary and likely to face incumbent Democrat Frank Wood, who won by only 480 votes in 2004.

Kaufmann says House Republicans have 89 candidates running in 82 seats. Democrats control the House 53 seats to 47. “Do we have someone against Mary Mascher? No,” said Kaufmann, referring to an incumbent from an overwhelmingly Democratic Iowa City seat. “But we’ve had our best recruiting year in a long time.”

Emma Nemecek of Mount Vernon is making her second House run. Two years ago she challenged incumbent Ro Foege. This year Foege is retiring and the Democrats are running Lisbon attorney Nate Willems. “You need to listen to both sides, that’s the makeup of the district,” said Nemecek. “I want to represent Democrats and independents as well as Republicans.”

Nemecek shot down rumors that she’s considering dropping out of the race after the primary to allow Republicans to name another candidate. “I mentioned to the League of Women Voters that I wasn’t sure about running,” said Nemecek, citing family reasons. She said after that, she got many calls and emails from the district urging her to stay in, and she’s committed to the race now.

One of the Republican’s top open-seat House candidates was wounded in action. Jarad Klein of Keota was crutching around at the district convention, having broken an ankle while door knocking. Klein will face Riverside Democrat Larry Marek in House District 89, where Republican incumbent Sandra Greiner is retiring.

In a brief Iowa Independent interview, King stood behind the rhetorical style that’s earned him scorn from liberals and Worst Person In The World “honors” from the media, but solid support from Republican activists.

“I just tell the truth, and I’m waiting for somebody to stand up and say `I have a different number, I have a different statistic,’” he said. “But they don’t. They just want to call names. So when you get to that point you’ve already won the debate.”King, whose high profile endorsement of Fred Thompson failed to give the former Tennessee senator much traction in the January caucuses, now says he’s fully behind the party’s certain nominee, John McCain. “There are some folks who have a ways to go yet, but it’s coming, because they understand the rationale,” he told Iowa Independent.

“With John McCain we can rebuild the Reagan coalition and become a governing coalition again,” he told delegates.

King strongly defended McCain’s position on the Iraq war and attacked the Democrats. “You cannot tell people you support the troops if you do not support their mission there,” he said. “Those things are linked together.

Iowa Republican Party chair Stewart Iverson echoed King’s thoughts on the war. “We all want to see this brought to and end as quickly as possible,” Iverson told delegates. “The difference is, we want to win.”

Supreme Court appointments are one of the critical issues to Republican activists, and King told delegates the next president may appoint two to four justices that may be able to overturn Roe v. Wade. “Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be the model for Obama or Hillary,” he said. “Many of us have worked a lifetime to get here, and if we go backward in this presidential race, we can write this off for my lifetime.”

Despite his support for McCain, King still acknowledged some disappointment that “we aren’t going to elect a president who supports the Fair Tax.” The flat, consumption based tax was a centerpiece of the Mike Huckabee campaign, and support from the Fair Tax group was credited with helping Huckabee to the second-place finish in the August 2007 straw poll that started him on the road to his caucus victory.

Next weekend’s Democratic conventions are likely to draw heavy attention from state and even national media. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama delegates, and some John Edwards diehards, will face off to elect the state’s first actual national delegates. But Republicans don’t elect national delegates until June, their nomination fight is settled, and the press table was pretty lonely except for the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s James Lynch and myself.

The speeches by King and other party leaders were the highlight of a convention otherwise taken up by election of party officers and platform debate. “I’ll be happy as long as someone throws in eminent domain and property rights” in the platform, said state representative Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton, who has focused on the issue during his two House terms. While he didn’t endorse anyone during the caucuses, Kaufmann says he’s firmly behind McCain. “In my heart, I think he’s the only candidate who gives us a chance and reaches out to independents,” he said.

One of those independents is Hani Elkadi of Iowa City. Elkadi used to be active in the Democrats, but left the party “because of Bill Clinton, to be honest.” He said he is still undecided about many state and federal races, but “that’s the best thing about being an independent.”

One new face at the GOP convention was Clyde Cleveland of Fairfield, the 2002 Libertarian candidate for governor. Cleveland moved to the GOP to support Ron Paul. “We have to turn this country around now,” he said. “We don’t have time to build a third party.”

Cleveland is less than pleased with McCain. “He has an F minus with gun owners. It’s hard for a Goldwater Republican like me, who grew up a constitutionalist, to support him. Is he a lesser of three evils? Sure,” Cleveland said, comparing McCain to Obama and Clinton. “We just have to do the best we can do now.”

Other former supporters of other Republicans are more positive. “I’ve got real hope for McCain,” said state senator Jim Hahn of Muscatine, who was an early Mitt Romney supporter. “He’s got some good attributes.”

Red Watson of Fairfield echoed the sentiment that McCain was the best of the three remaining major candidates, but was more enthusiastic than Cleveland. “McCain believes that life begins at conception,” he said.

Congressional candidate Lee Harder said he is hopeful that McCain “may be more conservative as a president than he was as a senator.”

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey acknowledged 2006 was a tough year for Iowa Republicans in his speech. Northey himself was one of the party’s few bright spots; he took over the agriculture job while his party lost the state house and senate and two congressional seats. “This is built one election at a time,” he said.

As a former state legislator, King says he still keeps a close eye on state issues. He said the Democratic trifecta of governor, house and senate has given Republicans “banner issues for our statehouse candidates to run on,” singling out Renee Schulte of Cedar Rapids, who is running against Democratic freshman Art Staed.

Linn County Republican chair Jim Conklin said, “the party is still growing, though not as fast as I want.” He said the party is coming together after the caucus season, unlike the other party.

“I hope Hillary and Obama keep helping McCain get elected,” he said.

Aside: Steve King’s one-liner when faced with a liberal blogger in a raspberry beret was fully in character: “If I need somebody to go get me a bottle of French wine, can you do that?” My response, of course: “Oui, oui.”