If those numbers prove accurate, Gov. Chet Culver could be forced to call a special legislative session in order to balance the state’s budget.

Gov. Chet Culver

Culver’s budget director Dick Oshlo did not agree with the LSA’s estimates, saying the state would only be facing a $58 million shortfall. Since the legislature left a $44 million balance when it adjourned, and Culver has the authority to transfer $50 million from the state’s rainy day fund, a special session will not be needed.

“While the state’s tax receipts deteriorated more than expected during the last two months of the fiscal year due to the ongoing effects of the national economic recession, this is a manageable number,” Oshlo said. “Fortunately, receipts improved during the final days of June. At this point we see no legitimate reason for a special session to balance the state’s budget.”

However, Oshlo’s figures are based on the state’s gross receipts, and “government operates on net receipts,” said David Swenson, an economist at Iowa State University.

“In effect [the Department of] Management is counting all of its deposits but, at least for the short term here, not pending obligations,” he said. “It is in my view budgetary hocus pocus. Now you see an unbalanced budget, now you don’t.”

Ultimately, the state is looking at a $161 million problem, Swenson said, because gross receipts are down $58 million, net refunds are up $72 million and there is an additional $31 million in school infrastructure payments that must come out of FY2009.

The governor’s office was quick to point out that the reason gross receipts were used was because they are the only real numbers that currently exist. The LSA’s figures are just estimates, and true net receipts won’t be known until September when the Department of Management closes the books on the fiscal year 2009 budget.

There is also revenue that will be collected within the next 90 days but allocated to the fiscal year that ended Tuesday, money that will improve the state’s financial situation and is not included in the LSA projections.

Culver Press Secretary Troy Price told the Iowa Independent last month that until accruals, expenditures and refunds are all taken into account there is no way of getting an accurate picture of the 2009 budget.

Republicans pounced on the new figures. Sen. Minority Leader Paul McKinley said Culver is violating the state’s Constitution by ending the fiscal year with an unbalanced budget.

“Republicans and independent expert economists for the past few years have consistently and continually warned Gov. Culver and legislative Democrats, who remain in a state of denial about Iowa’s budget, that Iowa’s taxpayers cannot afford the record spending, record borrowing and record deficits,” he said.

Gubernatorial hopeful Christopher Rants said Culver should stop denying there is a problem and bring the legislature back into session.

“It is time to quit worrying about the political ramifications of admitting that we have a deficit and get about the business of fixing it,” Rants said. “Gov. [Tom] Vilsack put aside partisan politics and called a special session in 2001 and 2002 to balance the budget after revenues declined. Culver needs to do the same.”

To hear what State Rep. Christopher Rants (R-Sioux City), State Rep. Rod Roberts (R-Carroll), State Sen. Jerry Behn (R-Boone), and Bob Vander Plaats (R-Sioux City) had to say, head over to Kay Henderson’s blog.

Noting that it will take “deft footwork” to move from a successful primary campaign to a successful general election campaign, the anonymous gossip peddler for the capital city alt-weekly ticked through reasons for the Rants prediction.

Those reasons include, among others, Rants being the “least offensive” candidate to the GOP’s moderate wing; being well versed on the issues; his ability to raise money; and the fact that Culver is vulnerable. The biggest of all, though, could be what Skinny considers a lack of competition for the nomination.

On the right, Bob VanderPlaats is a proven loser. No one has heard of Jerry Behn. Rod Roberts can’t get traction. Yes, there’s Congressman Steve King — a darling of the right but a guy who seems to be too coy by half as he drops hints about whether he’ll run. And Rants is more knowledgeable on Iowa issues. The efforts of Doug Gross and his band of check-writers to find a moderate candidate aren’t getting anywhere. The group has met at least four times to go over a list of a score or so of possible candidates, but no consensus has emerged. The top names have said “no.” As of last week, those folks were talking about Farm Bureau president Craig Lang (“he’s rounded second and heading toward third” in his decision to run, says one moderate), Barnstormers owner and former legislator Jeff Lamberti, longtime party operative and small-town lawyer Mike Mahaffey, and name-from-the-past Rand Fisher. But Lang has to run again for his Farm Bureau job and would have to give up a nice salary to go into politics. Lamberti, who lost to Congressman Leonard Boswell in 2006, has flatly said no. Mahaffey has indicated he’s rather take on Boswell — who barely beat him in 1996 — than Culver. And Fisher, who now is president of a trade association of electric cooperatives and municipal utilities, is unknown to most Iowans under 50.

As always, though, Skinny hedged his/her bet.

All that being said, remember: You get what you pay for. And Cityview is free.

Rants, who has served for 17 years in the state House, made the announcement on his Twitter page, as promised to a group of Muscatine Republicans last week.

Todays to do list: 1 File exploratory committee papers 2 Tape IA Press 3 Hit the road & continue listening to Iowans kitchen table concerns

Rants joins Sioux City businessman and two-time GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats as the only men who are publicly considering a run for governor next year to formally take the step of setting up an exploratory committee. State Rep. Rob Roberts of Carroll has said he plans to form an exploratory committee soon.

The move also comes just two days after Vander Plaats attacked Rants for his stance on same-sex marriage, previewing what will likely be a point of contention throughout the GOP primary.

Discussing the potential field of candidates for the GOP primary with the Associated Press, the party’s 2002 gubernatorial nominee Doug Gross said none of the current Republican contenders have a good shot of defeating incumbent Gov. Chet Culver next year, but he expects someone to eventually enter the race who does.

“I think they are all fine people and I don’t think any of them will be the nominee,” Gross said. ”I think we want to win and our nominee is going to have to have that statewide reach.”

Rants has spent the last month traveling the state meeting with activists and potential campaign donors. He is scheduled to appear on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” today.

State Sen. Jerry Behn, former House Speaker Christopher Rants, state Rep. Rod Roberts and Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats have agreed to attend the event being held at Drake University on July 22. This will mark the second time these four have shared a stage in anticipation of a 2010 run. On June 27, all four will speak at the Sac County Republican Party’s summer fundraiser in Sac City.

Vander Plaats has formed an exploratory committee and recently received the endorsement of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Rants is currently crisscrossing the state meeting with potential donors and supporters. He recently told a gathering Republicans in Muscatine that he would explore a campaign for as long as he can receive free publicity, and eventually announce his decision on the social-networking Web site Twitter.

Roberts recently told Des Moines NBC affiliate WHO-TV that he plans to form an exploratory committee “soon” but declined to specify a timetable. He told his hometown newspaper that he is “95 percent decided to do this with the exploratory committee.”

In a statement to the media, Vander Plaats said if elected he would sign an executive order banning same-sex marriages as part of an effort “to give Iowans the right to vote on the issue.”

Rants, who successfully passed a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in 2004 when he was Speaker of the House (it never passed the Iowa Senate, effectively killing it), has said the governor does not have the authority to issue such an order, a position supported by legal experts and constitutional scholars.

“With all due respect to Rep. Rants, I believe that’s the kind of leadership that’s brought us from being the majority in the state to being the minority in the state,” Vander Plaats said. “When you give complete power over to the Supreme Court, you’ll have tyranny not liberty.”

Vander Plaats has said repeatedly that he believes it is within the governor’s power to issue an executive order putting the Iowa Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage on hold.

“Executives need to lead,” he said. “This is not about winning the office it’s about leading. That’s what separates me from anyone else out there.”

This isn’t the first time Republicans have publicly debated the power of the state’s highest court since its April 3 ruling. Republican U.S. Rep. Steve King took heat from conservative activists last month when he said the only way to legally overturn same-sex marriage in Iowa is to pass a constitutional amendment, as courts have had the power to interpret the law since the 1803 case of Marbury v. Madison.

Neither Vander Plaats nor Rants have officially entered the gubernatorial race.

Rants did not respond to a request for comment.

Roberts told reporter Dave Price the media has focused almost exlclusively on two other potential candidates who have yet to officailly throw their hat in the ring — Sioux City businessman and two time gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats and former House Speaker Christopher Rants. But Roberts plans to step up his efforts soon, refusing to get specific on a time frame.

Roberts is one of four potential candidates who will speak later this month at a Sac County Republican Party fundraiser. He said he will ultimately decide whether to enter the race by this fall.

Sac County (Source: Wikipedia)

The Sac County Republican Central Committee will host several potential gubernatorial candidates at their summer fundraiser on Saturday, June 27. Confirmed guests include state Sen. Jerry Behn, former House Speaker Christopher Rants, state Rep. Rod Roberts and Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats. If any of them announce their candidacy, the party will share proceeds from the event with their campaigns, a move sure to garner some attention.

“Weeks before we put this together, I kept hearing about candidates who were not candidates. People who were not running for governor but still running around the state shaking hands and kissing babies and raising money,” said Brian Krause, chair of the Sac County Republican Party. “So I said, if we want to have these guys out, lets tease them a little and invite them to announce at our event.”

And an idea was born.

Invitations were sent out to any potential candidate the county party believed was serious about jumping in the race. Besides the four confirmed guests, several others also received invitations, including former state Sen. Jeff Lamberti.

“I really think Jeff Lamberti will get in this thing, but he had a prior engagement out of state that day,” Krause said. “There are a couple other guys out there, and the way I’ve left it with them is that if they get serious enough to attend our event, they can still let me know.”

Ultimately, Krause knows it’s unlikely he’ll see a formal announcement at his event.

“In all reality, I understand that Chris Rants is from Sioux City and he’ll announce there, and Bob Vander Plaats will announce in Sheldon,” he said. “I bounced it off Rob Roberts, since he represents two precincts in Sac County, and he laughed and said it was intriguing and he didn’t find it at all offensive. So we ran with it.”

The goal, Krause said, has less to do with making headlines and more to do with his county having a role in the gubernatorial campaign. The Iowa Caucuses give the Hawkeye State a disproportionate impact on the presidential elections, he said, because they happen first. Sac County may only have 12,000 residents, but the same benefits of being first could apply.

“If we get out early on this thing, maybe we can disproportionately play a part in this process of the governor’s race,” he said.

The fundraiser will begin at 8:30 a.m. with breakfast served at the Chautauqua Building in Sac City. At 9 a.m., the program will begin with each potential candidate allowed to make brief remarks. Tickets are $10 per person.

Burns thinks that argument is flat-out wrong, and he points to past election cycles in which Democrats haven’t even fielded a candidate against Roberts. That may be true, but Rants’s claim isn’t completely baseless: On paper, Roberts’s district looks like it should be a top battleground, since it actually has 2,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Roberts has coasted to reelection, but a political newcomer might not have the same luck.

That said, concern for one’s state legislative seat probably shouldn’t be the only factor a candidate weighs when he or she decides to seek higher office. If it were, Rants might not be running either.

Though the former speaker has been reelected many times, it hasn’t always been a cakewalk. The GOP does hold a slight registration advantage in his Sioux City district, but not enough of one to prevent Democrats from nominating candidates and spending a few bucks there each campaign cycle. Without an incumbent, depending on political winds and the resources available to both sides, the GOP could certainly lose Rants’s seat, too.

Even if both seats are likely remain in the Republican column after November 2010, without incumbents running, the House GOP will have to divert resources away from potential pickup opportunities just to play defense. The impact may not be huge, but statehouse races have turned on less.

First, the career state legislator and former house speaker appears to have hired a staffer, Sara Craig, who was listed as a media contact for Rants on a recent press release.  Craig worked for Rants during the difficult 2006 campaign cycle, overseeing House Republican campaigns in southwestern Iowa.  She later worked for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s failed 2008 presidential campaign, which Rants helped to organize from the beginning. After the caucuses, Craig moved to North Dakota, where she was in charge of the state senate Republican campaign fund and served as Interim Executive Director of the state’s Republican Party, according to her profile on the social networking site LinkedIn.

Craig’s profile has not been updated to include information about her recent work for Rants, but it seems unlikely that she would move back to Iowa to work for a restless state legislator who isn’t running for governor.  (It’s also unlikely that a Republican Party employee from one state would moonlight for a potential primary candidate in another state, since doing so would almost certainly violate neutrality rules.)

In addition to hiring a staffer, Rants has also reserved the domain name RantsForGovernor.com.  Though the address currently points to a placeholder Web site, it was registered last month by Creative Leap, Inc., the Des Moines-based design firm that has built sites for Rants and the Iowa House Republican Caucus before.

Expect a new site to be ready immediately after Rants makes an official gubernatorial campaign announcement. Rants’s current Web site, paid for by his state legislative campaign committee, has not been updated since the middle of last month.

Rants and perennial candidate Bob Vander Plaats (also of Sioux City) are the only two potential candidates who are publicly soliciting support from party activists, but others are rumored to be exploring candidacies and dialing for dollars behind closed doors.