Branstad, who has been traveling around the state holding events but has not yet officially joined the race, said it was too early to be talking about picking a running mate.

From the Cedar Rapids Gazette:

“He certainly is one that would be worth considering,” Branstad said about Fong, 32, before quickly adding, “There are many others you would want to look at as well.”

To many, it seems strange that this early in the process, with the Republican gubernatorial primary more than six months away, to be discussing running mates. But rumors have been swirling around a potential Branstad pick for months. In September, one of his chief rivals, Bob Vander Plaats, took a shot at Branstad when he said he was “not looking to balance the ticket with somebody who is moderate or liberal,” alluding to the choice of abortion-rights supporter Joy Corning by Branstad in 1990.

Branstad seemed to respond during an October meeting with a group of social conservative leaders. He said he planned to choose a younger conservative to run with him, which led many to look at the 32-year-old Fong.

Sources close to the campaign told The Iowa Independent that Branstad’s first choice is Doug Reichardt, chairman of the insurance brokerage Holmes Murphy & Associates Inc., although it is unknown whether he is interested in the position. Reichardt, 55, will step down as his company’s chairman Jan. 1 to become chairman emeritus. His father, Bill Reichardt, ran for the Democratic nomination for governor in 1994 but lost to Bonnie Campbell in the primary.

Other names that have been mentioned include former state Rep. Libby Jacobs and state Sen. Jerry Behn, who ended his own gubernatorial campaign Tuesday.

Christian Fong

“Today, I announce the suspension of my campaign,” Fong said in a statement. “From this time forward, we will not be actively campaigning for the Republican nomination for governor.”

Fong, 32, entered the campaign in June with the support of the highly influential conservative group Iowans for Tax Relief. He quickly announced big fundraising numbers and was the first candidate to launch statewide radio ads. His campaign was led by veteran GOP strategist Marlys Popma, and at a recent Republican Party of Iowa event in November, Fong told the Iowa Independent he fully intended to stay in the race to at least the June primary.

Fong blamed fundraising as the reason for his departure from the race.

“Our vision was clear, but the financial hurdles too great,” Fong said. “Yet it is the responsibility of each generation to build on the blessings of liberty in Iowa, and so I will continue to stand with you for the future of our great state.”

Fong is the second candidate to drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid. Last month Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley left the race citing former Gov. Terry Branstad’s impending candidacy as his reason. There are now five men seeking the GOP nomination: Branstad, state Sen. Jerry Behn, state Rep. Rod Roberts, state Rep. Chris Rants and Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats.

Culver’s job approval rating, at 40 percent, has hit the lowest point since taking office and has dropped 20-percentage-points since January. In a head-to-head matchup with several potential GOP challengers, Culver loses to Branstad 57 percent to 33 percent. An October poll conducted by Research 2000 had Branstad beating Culver 48 percent to 43 percent.

In the October poll, Culver bested other Republicans by at least 20 points. But in the latest Register poll, Vander Plaats beats him 45 percent to 37 percent.

The governor doesn’t reach 50 percent against any Republican opponent, but does defeat state Rep. Chris Rants and Cedar Rapids businessman Christian Fong.

It’s a theme he’s returned to repeatedly over the last few weeks, first in a series of town halls, then in a blog post on the conservative Hawkeye Review. And with Fong competing with a crowded field of candidates that includes a former governor, a former House speaker and a two-time gubernatorial candidate, it is quickly becoming the biggest distinction between Fong and his rivals.

“[My father] said, ‘High taxes are wrong because they inhibit personal freedom.’ Done,” Fong told the Sioux City Journal last month. “For an immigrant from China who’s bottom line is about the American Dream, taxation is really a freedom issue.”

Fong promises to eliminate the income tax and pay for the reduction in revenue with “spending reductions, the closing of special interest tax loopholes and the growth of our economy over time.”

Retired Des Moines Register Editor Richard Doak argued against the “taxes make a recession worse” meme in a Sunday column, saying the arguments made by supply-side economists have fallen flat over the years. Government’s provide a service, and cutting that service to the bone in order to avoid taxes is short sighted.

The conclusion isn’t that tax increases are good. It’s that the economy is too complex to be governed by any single factor. Taxes aren’t the be-all and end-all of the economy. Sometimes tax increases are necessary, and those that are won’t necessarily harm the economy. They didn’t in the past. …

… This isn’t an argument for raising taxes. There might be good reasons for Iowa to avoid raising taxes now, but the supposed ill effects of a tax increase on the economy isn’t one of them.

Fong’s position goes much further than any of his GOP rivals. Bob Vander Plaats simply calls for “simplifying the income tax system” and lowering the tax burden on corporate income. Chris Rants’ focus has so far been on reducing property taxes.

Branstad has high name recognition and will undoubtedly be able to raise a huge campaign war chest quickly, which will likely drain resources and attention from his opponents.

But the Associated Press’s Mike Glover found that only one, Senate Majority Leader Paul McKinley, has openly confirmed that he will leave the race when Branstad makes it official.

”When he gets in, I will drop out,” McKinley said.

Glover spoke with GOP candidates Chris Rants, Rod Roberts, Christian Fong and Bob Vander Plaats, with each saying they have no intention of leaving the 2010 campaign due to Branstad’s candidacy. Another declared candidate, Jerry Behn, could not be reached for comment.

According to The Des Moines Register:

Chinese communists swept to power in the last century without mentioning plans to nationalize businesses or institute forced abortions, Republican gubernatorial candidate Christian Fong told supporters of the Iowa Minuteman Civil Defense Corps on Saturday.

“They came in promising hope and change,” Fong said. “Sound familiar?”

This line of attack against the president is nothing new for some elements of the Republican base, but so far Fong has managed to strike a more moderate tone in his campaign, especially when discussing immigration.

In an interview with the Carroll Daily Times Herald earlier this month, Fong warned his party to be careful to “not sound so angry” when discussing immigration. And later in his speech to the Minutemen, Fong, the child of an immigrant from China and a woman from Nebraska, said the party’s message must be tempered with an acceptance of those who come into the country legally.

When he first entered the campaign in July, some of his positions were seen as potentially controversial to to Iowa’s conservative Republican base. He was even attacked by some in the social conservative movement for not openly condemning homosexuality as evil.

Insinuating that Obama will “nationalize businesses or institute forced abortions” appears to be Fong’s attempt to reach out to his party’s base and quiet down any criticism that still lingers about his political beliefs.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Rod Roberts (left) speaks with former Gov. Terry Branstad.

Branstad, who served four terms as Iowa’s governor from 1982 to 1998, is considered by many to be the automatic favorite to win the GOP nomination next year.

“Iowans have spoken, and Gov. Branstad has listened,” said Sandy Grenier, a former state legislator who founded the Draft Branstad PAC in September to convince the former governor to enter the race.

The Des Moines Register reports that initial Branstad supporters include former Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Richard Schwarm; 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Gross; political strategist David Roederer; Vermeer Corp. CEO Mary Andringa; and businessman and top GOP donor Bruce Rastetter.

In addition, several state legislators have signed on to the Draft Branstad movement.

A recent Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines found that 70 percent of Iowans look back approvingly on Branstad’s years in office. It also found that 48 percent of Iowans believe he should run for a fifth term.

While many Iowans, and a lot of large Republican donors, will greet the news with glee, Branstad’s entrance into the race is not without detractors, most notably his fellow Republicans already seeking the gubernatorial nomination.

Just last week state Rep. Chris Rants of Sioux City attacked Branstad’s record of balancing the state’s budget, saying he used “accounting gimmicks” instead of fiscal responsibility. Another GOP rival, Bob Vander Plaats, made it a point to tell reporters he would not try to “balance the ticket with somebody who’s moderate or liberal or who doesn’t believe in those core values like I do,” a statement many considered a shot at Branstad, who chose Joy Corning, a pro-choice, moderate Republican, as running mate in 1990 and 1994.

Veteran Iowa journalist Chuck Offenburger, formerly with The Des Moines Register and now managing his own Web site, called a potential Branstad candidacy a “black eye for the Republican Party of Iowa,” claiming it would discourage a new generation of Republicans to get active in politics and set back all the good work done by the party’s new leadership.

Controversial Christian radio host Steve Deace has been highly critical of Branstad re-entering politics. He predicts the bloodiest primary in the state party’s history, pitting so-called Polk County moderates against social conservative activists. Deace says Branstad’s record will not sell to social conservatives, pointing to his appointment of the Supreme Court Justice who penned the decision legalizing same-sex marriage to his choice of Corning as lieutenant governor.

In addition to Branstad, Rants and Vander Plaats, four other men are currently seeking the GOP nomination: state Sen. Jerry Behn, Christian Fong, state Sen. Paul McKinley and state Rep. Rod Roberts.

“We are calling on Fong to take down this ad on his own before any other action is taken,” Kiernan said in a press release without going into detail about further action that could be taken.

Fong launched his statewide radio ads Monday. The point of contention is over a claim Fong makes in the ad regarding Gov. Chet Culver’s $830 million I-JOBS infrastructure bonding program. In the ad, Fong says state government “borrowed almost a billion dollars to pay its bills.”

The I-JOBS money is directed at infrastructure projects like the Iowa Veterans Home; bridge and road repair; flood recovery; and affordable housing grants, among other things. None of the money is slated to go towards ongoing expenses, and Kiernan said the money is not being used to balance the state’s budget.

“To suggest money borrowed for the I-JOBS initiative means the budget is out of balance is false,” Kiernan said.  “It’s like telling Iowans who have home mortgages that their personal finances won’t be balanced for 30 years.  It makes no sense.”

Kiernan said the IDP last week contacted television stations to stop a television ad that had been airing in support of the Republican candidate for Iowa House in the upcoming District 90 special election in southeast Iowa.

The ad in question was paid for by conservative tax watchdog Iowans for Tax Relief. It made the claim that liberal billionaire George Soros was helping fund Democratic candidate Curt Hanson’s campaign. Norm Sterzenbach, the IDP’s executive director, said the ad was up for a couple of days before the party contacted local television stations and asked that it be taken down because the Soros claim is not true.

“The stations asked us to prove it was not true, and we did so by providing records and affidavits,” he said. “They then took the ad down.”

The party could go a similar route with this ad.

“The fact is, Iowa’s bills are paid,” Kiernan said.  “We had a balanced budget for the fiscal year just ended and will have one for the coming year.”

Fong’s campaign manager, Marlys Popma, said in a press release that strong fundraising has opened the door to this type of advertising so early in the process.

Below is a transcript of the ad:

Christian Fong: “It was 1944, as communism was ascending, Nelson Fong’s family escaped China. Meanwhile, the United States was a beacon of freedom.  After tax cuts in ‘61, the U.S. was booming.  Nelson Fong, a Christian in Hong Kong was drawn by the promise of freedom to the United States in ‘63.  He met a farm girl, worked many jobs and eventually settled in a small western Iowa town.  Today, Nelson Fong lives that American dream…I know because he’s my father.

“I’m Christian Fong.  Today, I see that dream slipping away. We have a state government that borrowed almost a billion dollars to pay its bills. As Governor I would end the use of taxpayer money to fund lobbyists and veto any budget that is not balanced.

“Like many of you, we live the Iowa Dream and we should never let that slip away. I’m Christian Fong.”

Announcer: “Paid for by Iowans for Christian Fong.  Conservative Republican for Governor.”

According to a recent poll paid for by the Republican group “Iowa First Foundation,” Fong’s name recognition is lowest among the candidates for the GOP nomination, coming in at about 26 percent. Even though the gubernatorial primary is still 10 months away, Fong’s campaign is obviously trying to remedy that.

Other than calling it a “statewide” radio buy, the campaign gave no indication of how much money it is spending on the advertisement or where, exactly, it will be running.

Listen to the ad here.

Gross, who served as a top aide to former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad and was his party’s 2002 gubernatorial nominee, has been releasing the results of his latest round of surveys, conducted July 23-26, this week. Today, he released favorability numbers (pdf) for Gov. Chet Culver, former governors Tom Vilsack and Branstad, and a slew of Republicans who could be on the gubernatorial primary ballot next year.

While Branstad’s numbers look good, the rest of the GOP gubernatorial field continues to languish in relative obscurity. Culver, the incumbent, still appears to be in a decent position ahead of next year’s election.

The results, compiled by Republican pollsters at Hill Research Consultants, peg Culver’s favorability rating among likely Iowa voters at 52 percent. 38 percent view the current governor unfavorably, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

Branstad, who was governor for four terms during the 1980s and 1990s and is rumored to be considering a return to politics, is viewed favorably by 68 percent and unfavorably by 15 percent of likely voters.

In between Culver and Branstad are Vilsack, who is viewed favorably by 55 percent and unfavorably by 25 percent, and President Barack Obama, who is viewed favorably by 56 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent.

Culver, Branstad, Vilsack, and Obama all enjoy high name recognition. Vilsack is known by 89 percent of likely voters, Branstad is known by 90 percent, Culver is known by 96 percent, and Obama is known by 99 percent.

None of the other names that the poll asked about — state Rep. Chris Rants (R-Sioux City), social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats (R-Sioux City), state Sen. Paul McKinley (R-Chariton), Poweshiek County Attorney Mike Mahaffey (R-Montezuma), state Rep. Rod Roberts (R-Carroll), and business executive Christian Fong (R-Cedar Rapids) — has the same level of name recognition. Vander Plaats comes closest with 60 percent, followed by Rants and Mahaffey, who are hovering near 40 percent. None of the other candidates crack 30 percent. For that reason, the favorability numbers for those candidates probably don’t mean a lot, since voters still have a lot to learn about all of them.

Moreover, based on the way the question was phrased, I suspect all of the name recognition numbers are slightly inflated, because poll respondents had to volunteer the fact that they didn’t recognize a name while answering the favorable/unfavorable question in order for a “no” to register.

What is interesting, I think, is that Culver and Obama both achieve similar numbers in the poll. Obama seems to elicit more passionate responses from likely voters, as illustrated by the higher numbers of “very favorable” and “very unfavorable” opinions expressed by respondents, which is to be expected at a time when the country is focused on the national health reform debate rather than on state-level issues. Notably, both figures are rated favorably by more than 50 percent of the electorate, which is good news for Democrats.

It’s true, Branstad’s favorability numbers eclipse Culver’s (and everyone else’s), but that isn’t much of a surprise. When a four-term governor leaves politics for 11 years, voters’ memories can become pretty selective. In 1990, ten years after Jimmy Carter lost the 1980 presidential election, the Georgia Democrat enjoyed a 67 percent favorability rating nationwide, compared to 62 percent for Ronald Reagan, who defeated Carter and served two terms. Does that mean that Carter would have won if he had run again in 1992? Probably not.

In state-level politics, name recognition is arguably the most important indicator of a candidate’s strength, not favorability.

If a candidate like Fong, whose name recognition is at 26 percent, wins the primary and hopes to close the gap with Culver, he will have to buy a lot of expensive statewide advertising just to introduce himself. Culver, who doesn’t need to introduce himself to voters, will be free to spend his advertising budget defining Fong negatively to the three fourths of the electorate that does not yet know him.

This dynamic puts lesser-known candidates at a significant disadvantage, and it may help explain why incumbents win re-election so often.

Of course, the election is a long way away, and a lot can change in a year. But as things stand now, Culver’s chances of winning a second term don’t look so bad. Branstad is Culver’s biggest threat simply based on name recognition, but opinions of him are likely to shift over the course of a protracted Republican primary.