Pataki was the keynote speaker at the Scott County Republican Party’s Ronald Reagan Dinner Tuesday night, where he attacked Democratic positions on foreign policy, health care reform and the economic stimulus plan.

But in an interview shortly before his address his focus was on fiscal matters and keeping a party struggling with its identity together.

Pataki said too much attention was being given to a congressional race in northern New York, where a Democrat won a seat this month held by Republicans for decades. The Democrat beat a Conservative Party candidate endorsed by high-profile Republicans, including Pataki, who said the GOP candidate was too liberal. She quit the race before Election Day.

That kind of rancor can be avoided, Pataki said, by keeping the focus on pocketbook issues.

“Those are issues that are at the forefront of people’s minds and on which Republicans are united,” he said.

Pataki’s message is similar to that of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who told a GOP fundraiser Saturday that internal debate is healthy but ultimately Republicans must support Republicans in order to regain political majorities. Pawlenty also endorsed the Conservative Party candidate in the New York House race.

Pataki also made it clear to the AP that it is too early to tell if he will run for president in 2012, a rumor that picked up steam when he announced he would be speaking in Iowa.

Sarah Palin at a rally in Sioux City last year.

The Alaska Republican’s visit also marks yet another stop in Iowa for a potential presidential candidate. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty spoke at a GOP fundraiser Saturday and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee made three stops in Iowa Sunday to promote his own book.

Now, throw former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee into the mix.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Des Moines last year promoting another book (Jason Hancock/Iowa Independent).

The winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses make three stops in Iowa Sunday, Nov. 8, to promote his latest book, “A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.” Huckabee will be in Davenport at 2:30 p.m.,  Cedar Rapids at 5 p.m., and Des Moines at 8 p.m., a day after Pawlenty gives the keynote speech at a Republican Party of Iowa event in Des Moines.

It will be Huckabee’s second appearance in Iowa this year. In May, he spoke at the Iowa Association of Business and Industry’s annual convention before holding a fundraiser for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats.

After Pawlenty and Huckabee leave town, Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Paul will return to Iowa for the first time since the 2008 Caucuses, where the Texas lawmaker finished fifth. Paul is scheduled to speak at Iowa State University in Ames on Nov. 13 at 7 p.m. The next morning he will headline a fundraiser for state Rep. Kent Sorenson’s Iowa Senate campaign at the Des Moines Airport Holiday Inn.

In an article that focuses on whether he should make a run for governor of New York, Giuliani, who finished a distant sixth in the January 2008 caucuses, told the magazine it was his advisers that developed the campaign strategy of skipping Iowa to focus on later, larger primaries.

And then there was his cockamamy campaign strategy, in which he sat out the Iowa caucuses, skipping a contest that riveted the world for a month, and competed halfheartedly in New Hampshire and South Carolina. By the time he made his infamous last stand in Florida, hoping that weeks of appearances at NASCAR tracks and Little Havana parades could make up for the ground he’d lost, it was too late.

Today, Rudy Inc. offers myriad excuses for the debacle. Giuliani says fundraising in the crowded field was harder than he expected: “I wish I had figured out that we weren’t going to raise $100 million.” Giuliani also wishes he hadn’t skipped Iowa, a decision he attributes to advisers. “My instincts originally were, if you lose, you gotta go down fighting. You can’t allow yourself to lose a primary. I think I should’ve fought Iowa harder. That was the beginning of becoming irrelevant.”

After Iowa, Giuliani went on to finish fourth in the New Hampshire primary and third in the Florida primary before bowing out and endorsing eventual Republican nominee John McCain.

Giuliani’s message could be a lesson for presidential aspirants in 2012, as pundits from around the nation have begun questioning the wisdom of competing in Iowa.

Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic has argued that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty should skip Iowa because he will not pass all of the litmus tests imposed by the Hawkeye state’s Republican base. He has made similar points about former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In Pawlenty’s case, could a candidate really get away with skipping a state that borders his own, especially when the core of his electability argument is going to be “I can win in the Heartland”?

I think probably not.

More broadly, Ambinder and others seem to assume that Iowa’s Republican base is considerably more conservative than the Republican base nationwide. That would be the argument a candidate wanting to skip Iowa would make to justify his or her decision, but intuitively, it doesn’t seem to make much sense.

Iowa Republicans didn’t pull their apparent obsession with issues like same-sex marriage out of thin air. Depending on whose narrative you believe, that issue either comes from the Bible or from Karl Rove’s political playbook. Either way, Republicans are against it almost everywhere. Same goes for abortion and for worldviews that seem to deviate from mainstream “Judeo-Christian values.”

While Iowa Republicans may be more conservative than the GOP primary electorate in New Hampshire (which includes registered independents), how many other early primary states aren’t dominated by social conservatives?*

If the dreaded Iowa litmus tests were so unfair as to weed out every “center-right” Republican in the field, Romney would not have been the frontrunner here for almost all of 2007, and he would not have won that coveted “silver medal” on caucus night.

Days after the overly-conservative caucuses, Romney won another silver medal in New Hampshire, from an electorate apparently dominated by moderates. How can one of those two states be rigged against him while the other is fertile ground?

Here’s what’s really going on:

As the Republican party has shrunk nationwide, its spectrum of acceptable political beliefs has shrunk with it. That’s not unique to Iowa; it’s a national story that is covered somewhere every day.

Before a “skip Iowa” strategy makes sense for a candidate, that candidate has to show an ability to win in South Carolina and other states with similar Republican electorates.

Like it or not, the Iowa delegation blends in ideologically at Republican conventions. The base of the party’s power has shifted to the right. If a candidate loses for being too moderate, it won’t just be because of the primary calendar.

* Comparing how some later states voted during the 2008 primary might be an appealing way to answer this question, but I’d argue that in the later, bigger primary states, name ID, money, and electability were just as determinative of success as a candidate’s positions on social issues. On paper, the candidates agreed on almost all social issues anyway.

January 23, the date announced for the 2010 caucuses by the Democratic and Republican parties today, is a Saturday. That means that in 2012, the presidential caucuses could also be held on a Saturday.

In theory, that would enable more people to participate (Jews who observe the sabbath are one prominent exception). It might also reduce the volume of criticism coming from caucus opponents, who argue that the hours-long process excludes too many potential voters.

Here’s the joint press release from the state party chairmen, which makes no explicit mention of 2012:

DES MOINES, IA – Iowa Democratic Party State Chairman, Mike Kiernan, and Republican Party of Iowa State Chairman, Matt Strawn, made the following joint statement concerning the date and time for the 2010 precinct caucuses.

“We are proud to announce the Republican Party of Iowa and the Iowa Democratic Party, with the support of our respective State Central Committees, have agreed to hold the 2010 Precinct Caucuses on Saturday, January 23 beginning at 1 p.m.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time either Party has held its precinct caucuses on a Saturday.  Our decision to hold these important organizational meetings on a Saturday was made to encourage greater participation in an off-year caucus and get more Iowans actively involved with the work of our Parties.

Getting more Iowans involved in their local precinct caucuses is good for Democrats, good for Republicans, and good our political process.  Iowans will be making some critically important decisions in 2010 and the more people actively involved in the process the better for Iowa.”

Last week, U.S. Sen. John Ensign (R-Nevada) admitted an extramarital affair with a staffer.

Today, in an awkward press conference after a mysterious five-day disappearance, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford admitted that he traveled to Argentina to carry on an affair of his own. No one — not even his wife, his staff, or his lieutenant governor — seemed to know where he was for most of his trip.

Both Ensign and Sanford had sparked speculation that they might run for the Republican nomination for president in 2012.

Ensign had recently visited Iowa to raise money for the American Future Fund, kicking off a round of stories about his chances at the nomination (admittedly, even before the affair, he was not a frontrunner).

Sanford had not made the ritual first trip to Iowa yet in advance of 2012, owing in part to the fact that he was considered a serious enough candidate that he did not need the buzz that an early stop in the Hawkeye state could fuel. Political observers in Iowa and across the country saw him as an ideal GOP primary candidate because of his apparently strong conservative credentials on both fiscal and social issues.

Though affairs are not always career-ending mistakes in politics, in the eyes of Iowa’s socially conservative Republican base, they almost certainly have a half-life of more than three years. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has reportedly eyed a presidential bid more than once since his extramarital activities came to light, but lukewarm support among social conservatives, combined with other factors, seemed to deter him.

If Sanford and Ensign ever had a chance at winning the 2012 Iowa Caucuses, it is likely over.

And, even if neither of them was really interested in running for president anyway, their value as campaign surrogates has also significantly decreased, at least for the foreseeable future. When Iowa’s Republican nominee for governor needs a keynote speaker for a fundraiser or campaign rally, there will be two fewer men to invite.

Pawlenty, who survived the 2006 campaign cycle as most statewide Republicans around him were losing, presented himself to general election voters as a moderate, independent-thinking politician.  (Progressives in Minnesota argue that the real reason he won that year was that the Democratic gubernatorial ticket was gaffe-prone and unappealing to voters.) He won twice without garnering 50 percent of the vote.

Though Pawlenty’s prospects of winning reelection in 2010 were looking up as Minnesota’s legislative session ended this year, he still plans to unilaterally cut a billion dollars from his state’s budget, and that will make enemies locally.  (It may, however, endear him to national conservative groups, who like politicians who take huge chunks out of state budgets.)  Risking his presidential ambitions on another uncertain gubernatorial campaign, especially in the current economic climate, may not have seemed worth it.

The Minnesota Independent, a Center for Independent Media site, offered this quick recap of the situation last month:

The [Minnesota] budget deficit was initially projected to reach $6.4 billion for the biennium that begins July 1. Disbursements from President Obama’s stimulus package, however, trimmed that figure down to $4.6 billion. The DFL-controlled legislature and Pawlenty then both signed off on additional cuts that cleaved the deficit by roughly another third. Finally Pawlenty used his line-item veto authority to eliminate the state’s General Assistance Medical Program, slicing another $381 million from the budget hole — and knocking more than 30,000 destitute single adults off the health-care rolls.

Pawlenty’s strong-arm tactics haven’t gone unnoticed by national political players. Americans for Tax Reform — arguably Washington’s most zealous anti-tax organization — recently named him a “hero of the taxapayer.”

“I think this was the signal that he’s not running for governor again,” says David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University. “He’s running for national office, or thinks he is.”

But how Pawlenty’s budgetary hardball will play at home is tough to say. The DFL has picked up numerous legislative seats in the last two election cycles and nearly swept the state’s constitutional offices in 2006, with the notable exception of the governorship. Pawlenty’s approval ratings recently have hovered on the wrong side of the 50 percent threshold, typically a sign of vulnerability for an incumbent. And by going it alone on budget cuts, he risks taking the entire blame if popular programs are cut.

Pawlenty has also been a frequent guest on cable news talk shows over the past year, developing a knack for dodging questions about his 2012 plans.  In 2008, he made campaign stops in Iowa to support U.S. Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign and U.S. Rep. Tom Latham’s bid for reelection in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District.

Still, his status among Iowa’s conservative GOP base remains largely unknown.  Some far-right bloggers have tagged him a RINO (a “Republican In Name Only”) for his moderate rhetoric as a statewide candidate in Minnesota, but others see him as his party’s best shot at winning back the battleground states of the Midwest (e.g., Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin) that were competitive in 2000 and 2004, but that President Barack Obama won by significant margins in 2008.

Pawlenty is unlikely to officially announce a presidential campaign soon, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be start laying the groundwork for his candidacy in a matter of months.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney started making calls into Iowa and spreading campaign contributions around well before the 2006 election, helping him to secure endorsements from a significant number of establishment figures in the Iowa GOP well before the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.  If Pawlenty doesn’t start the same process before 2010 heats up, he could miss the boat.  Bowing out of his own reelection bid should give him the flexibility he needs to position himself as a contender.

This will mark Ensign’s first trip to Iowa, and despite being more than 2 years away from the Iowa Caucuses, the trip is garnering a lot of attention. Ensign has admitted several times that he is contemplating a run for president in 2012.

The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza points out the obvious:

No politician — NOT ONE — goes to Iowa by accident.

Ensign will be speaking in Sioux City, located in the Republican stronghold of northwest Iowa. He will also meet with people at an ice cream parlor in Le Mars and tour a plant specializing in breeding prize cattle.

Ensign was invited to Iowa by the American Future Fund, a non-profit conservative advocacy group based in Des Moines. Tim Albrecht, the group’s communications director, said C-SPAN will be taping the speech but has not made it clear when it will air. Fox News anchor Carl Cameron interviewed Albrecht about the event this morning.

Ensign is scheduled to speak at 7 p.m.

In the book, Edwards says her husband, John, admitted just days before announcing his run for president in 2006 to his now widely publicized extramarital affair. According to the New York Daily News, she writes that she then asked her husband not to run for president in the 2008 campaign, to protect their family from public scrutiny.

Edwards eventually finished second in the Iowa Caucuses to Barack Obama before dropping out and endorsing him. Clinton finished third and was dealt what many consider a fatal blow to her presidential aspirations. Now, former Clinton pollster Mark Penn tells ABC News that it would have been a very different race if Edwards hadn’t run.

“Most likely it would have been a two-way race and would have released a lot of voters who focused on demographics . . . voters who would later vote for Hillary Clinton.”

This isn’t the first round of former Clintonites blaming their loss, at least partially, on Edwards. When news of the affair first broke last August, former Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson said if Edwards had been forced from the race earlier his candidate “would have won Iowa” and been the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

But polling data from the night of the Caucuses does tend to contradict Penn and Wolfson’s points.

In an interview with former Iowa Independent writer John Deeth, University of Iowa political science professor David Redlawsk said a Caucus night poll showed 82 percent of Edwards supporters said they would support another candidate and 18 percent would not.

“When we asked which candidate they would then support, 32 percent said Clinton and 51 percent said Obama,” he said. “Had this actually happened statewide, Obama would have been even further ahead of Clinton.”

Now these were voters who spent the campaign listening to all three before deciding on who to support, so their opinions could have been much different if Edwards were never involved in the race from the beginning. But as Deeth pointed out back in August, the Clinton campaign’s focus on experience and being “ready to go on day one” was in stark contrast to the campaigns of Edwards and Obama, where change from the status quo was the rallying cry.

The Clinton that emerged later in the 2008 campaign that garnered support from mostly older and working class voters might have done better in Iowa, but that campaign message seemed to evolve because her defeat in Iowa and several early states, so it didn’t do her much good in the Hawkeye State.

In the end, it’s impossible to know what might have been.