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	<title>Iowa Independent &#187; Caucus Results</title>
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		<title>The night&#8217;s biggest number: Democratic turnout</title>
		<link>http://iowaindependent.com/1793/the-nights-biggest-number-democratic-turnout</link>
		<comments>http://iowaindependent.com/1793/the-nights-biggest-number-democratic-turnout#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Jan 2008 07:37:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Deeth</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Caucus Results]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://iowaindependent.com/1793/the-nights-biggest-number-democratic-turnout</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a night full of numbers, the most important statistic is 2 to 1 &#8212; Democratic turnout over Republican turnout.&#160; In all honesty, I thought the Democrats saturated the electorate in 2004 and got out every single person who could potentially caucus.&#160; I was wrong by about half, as Democratic turnout nearly doubled to almost [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a night full of numbers, the most important statistic is 2 to 1 &#8212; Democratic turnout over Republican turnout.&nbsp; In all honesty, I thought the Democrats saturated the electorate in 2004 and got out every single person who could potentially caucus.&nbsp; I was wrong by about half, as Democratic turnout nearly doubled to almost 240,000.&nbsp; The Republicans, however, only increased by about a third from eight years ago.&nbsp;
<p>
Those margins will be reflected in voter registration statistics soon, and the fresh lists of new caucus-goers give the Democrats an organizational advantage going into the fall.&nbsp; Most of all, it&#8217;s a strong sign that Democrats are enthusiastic about their candidate and their chances.
<p>
Here&#8217;s some other numbers that tell part of tonight&#8217;s story:<span id="more-1793"></span>657 &#8211; Attendance at the six-precinct Coralville Republican &#8220;super caucus.&#8221;
<p>
762 &#8211; Democratic attendance in Coralville precinct 6 alone.&nbsp; That was the biggest Democratic precinct in Johnson County; several precincts were reporting turnouts in the 500s and 600s, with at least three over 700.
<p>
57% &#8211; Percentage of Democrats under 30 who caucused for Obama.&nbsp; Hillary Clinton won 45% of those over 65.
<p>
47 cents &#8211; Obama&#8217;s midnight, post-results price on the Iowa Electronic Markets, indicating that investors give him a 47 percent chance at the nomination.&nbsp; That&#8217;s up from 28 cents yesterday.&nbsp; Clinton dropped from 59 cents to 51.&nbsp; John McCain is leading the Republican field at 30 cents.
<p>
9% &#8211; Victory margin for Mike Huckabee, much more than expected.&nbsp; The flurry of negative anonymous e-mails and goofy revelations seemed only to strengthen the resolve of Huckabee&#8217;s supporters, and the late resurgence of John McCain driven by newspaper endorsements helped widen the gap.&nbsp;
<p>
3.5% &#8211; Rudy Giuliani&#8217;s sixth-place showing.&nbsp; We all knew he wasn&#8217;t trying hard, but 3.5% makes Fred Thompson look like the Hardest Working Man In Show Business.&nbsp; Rudy was closer to no-show Duncan Hunter than to fifth-place Ron Paul.
<p>
50:50 &#8211; Odds that Fred Thompson will quit because he doesn&#8217;t feel like doing the New Hampshire debate.
<p>
298 &#8211; Ron Paul voters in Jefferson County, the only county won by someone other than Huckabee or Romney.&nbsp; Jefferson County often produces unusual results, like the 2004 near-win for Kucinich on the Democratic side.
<p>
1 &#8211; Chris Dodd delegate in the whole state, in Pottawatamie County.
<p>
Minus 2 &#8211; Goodbye, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden.&nbsp; Catching a brief glimpse of the Biden announcement, it seemed Jill Biden was more saddened by the end than the candidate.&nbsp; He&#8217;s up for re-election in Delaware this fall.&nbsp; Daily Kos was praising Dodd earlier in the day and suggesting he&#8217;d make a good replacement for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.&nbsp; Silence from Team Richardson tonight.
<p>
0 &#8211; Hillary Clinton delegates in Iowa City Precincts 3, 5, 11, 19, 20, and 21.&nbsp; Clinton was non-viable in the two University of Iowa dorm precincts (3 and 5) student-dominated 11, 19, and 20, and in 21 with a large student population.&nbsp; The &#8220;students shouldn&#8217;t caucus&#8221; flap may not have helped.&nbsp; Turnout was down from in Precinct 5 from 320 in 2004 to 134 this year, but University Democrats chair Atul Nakhasi was pleased with the mid-break attendance.&nbsp; In Precinct 3, 208 showed up, &#8220;a little less but not much&#8221; than 2004, said Nick Johnson, the law professor who&#8217;s long chaired his precinct.
<p>
1 &#8211; Effective ad as John Edwards carried Jasper County.&nbsp; He spoke often of the Maytag plant closing in Newton, and his final ad consisted almost entirely of a laid-off Maytag worker speaking, with Edwards saying nothing more than the legal disclaimer.&nbsp; Edwards had another strong cluster of support in southern Iowa, while Clinton won the western border and a chunk of north-central Iowa, and Obama took eastern and most of central Iowa.
<p>
20 years &#8211; The most interesting pronouncement I heard on caucus night.&nbsp; &#8220;20 years ago was when this all began,&#8221; said an Obama supporter who was a veteran of the 1988 Jesse Jackson campaign.&nbsp; The rap on the Iowa caucuses has always been that Iowa is &#8220;not diverse enough,&#8221; code for &#8220;95% white.&#8221;&nbsp; But maybe, just as overwhelmingly Protestant West Virginia gave Catholic John Kennedy a boost in 1960, Iowa Democrats have listened to those&nbsp; back of the hall murmurs &#8212; &#8220;I just don&#8217;t know if people are ready&#8221; &#8212; and answered them tonight.</p>
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