Francis Thicke made his first stop in Marion to announce that he is seeking the Democratic nomination for Iowa secretary of agriculture. The candidate has scheduled two other Iowa stops for his official announcement. (Photo by Lynda Waddington/Iowa Independent)

Francis Thicke, 59, said he believes the state needs to be prepared for the challenges and opportunities of agriculture in the 21st century, specifically citing renewable energy and sustainable agriculture as two of the most important areas for growth.

“In Iowa we eat about $8 billion worth of food every year and it is estimated that about 80 percent of that comes from out of state,” Thicke said. “That means that we have a great economic development opportunity to produce more of that here locally.”

According to Thicke, an economist at Iowa State University has estimated that if Iowans ate the recommended five servings of fruits and vegetables per day, and if Iowa farmers provided that produce for just three months out of the year, the production and marketing of those additional crops would add $300 million and 4,000 jobs to Iowa’s economy. Thicke recommends that Iowa pass legislation similar to what has been adopted in Illinois that sets a goal of 20 percent of all food purchased by state-owned facilities, such as universities and prisons, and 10 percent of all food purchased by state-funded facilities, such as schools and hospitals, to come directly from farms and farmers in our own state.

“Right now 65 percent of our land surface in Iowa is covered in corn and soybeans,” he said, noting that both crops are not very resilient. “I think we need to look toward more perennials on the landscape, more cover crops, and one way we can do that is to switch our biofuels industry towards more cellulosic biofuels.”

Thicke, who said he believes the ethanol industry has overbuilt in Iowa and caused itself economic hardship, would support a moratorium on state funding and tax credits for new ethanol plants. He asserts that such a move would provide a better balance of corn use between biofuels and food.

Thicke supports state incentives for farm-scale wind turbines, local control of the location of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) and increased state regulation regarding the size of such confinements.

While he recognizes that a large percentage of Iowa’s economic prosperity rests on agricultural interests, and knows first hand how fluctuating markets have impacted sectors such as pork and dairy producers, Thicke believes the problem is grounded in lack of competition in the markets.

“I think that one of the fundamental problems that is being overlooked is that these markets are no longer competitive markets,” he said. “Economists tell us that if more than 40 percent of a market is controlled by four or fewer firms that it begins to act like a monopoly rather than a free market. And, in hog markets, about 65 percent is controlled by four firms. In beef it is about 85 percent that is controlled by four firms. In dairy, one corporation processor controls about 40 percent of all the milk processing. The interesting thing is that while dairy farmers are at record loss levels, that corporation, during the last two quarters, has had record profits.”

“Some real trust breaking — like Teddy Roosevelt style trust busting” needs to be done, according to Thicke, in order for the agricultural markets to realign.

Thicke, who grew up on a family farm and has been a full-time farmer for the past 25 years, earned holds a doctorate degree in agronomy and soil fertility. He previously served at the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C. as national program leader for soil science for the agency’s extension service. He has served on the Iowa Environmental Protection Commission and that Iowa Food Policy Council, being appointed to the latter by former Gov. Tom Vilsack.

Thicke and his wife, Susan, are owners and operators of a grass-based, organic dairy near Fairfield. They process their milk on the farm and market it directly to local grocery stores and restaurants.

If he wins the Democratic nomination — he is currently the only declared candidate — Thicke will likely face Republican incumbent Bill Northey in the general election next year.

Immediately following Thicke’s formal entry into the race, the Republican Party of Iowa issued a statement painting him as a radical. “Agriculture is serious business in Iowa and now is not the time to experiment with the backbone of Iowa’s economy. Francis Thicke’s radical agenda would spell disaster to the stability and sustainability of our family farmers and the jobs they represent,” said Jeff Boeyink, the party’s executive director.

There are two candidates who are publicly seeking support from Republican activists for their candidacy: social conservative politico Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Christopher Rants.  Interestingly, both are from Sioux City.

Most recent news reports have implied that Vander Plaats is the only ‘official’ candidate, but Rants probably belongs in that category now, too.  Vander Plaats has an exploratory committee, which he needs because he has no other Iowa-based campaign account to raise and spend money.  Rants needs no exploratory committee because he already has a state legislative campaign account that can pay for a web site and other bare necessities as he weighs the idea of running.

Rants and Vander Plaats are both already traveling from one end of the state to the other to meet with activists and assess their chances of winning.  I put them in the same category because, though neither has registered a fully-fledged campaign committee, both are publicly seeking support.

Vander Plaats has run for governor multiple times, and each time he has lost.  In 2006, his Republican primary campaign was coopted by frontrunner Jim Nussle, who represented Iowa’s 1st district in Congress at the time.  Nussle used Vander Plaats mostly to reassure social conservatives during the primary and to rally the Republican base in western Iowa during the general election.  That gave Vander Plaats few opportunities to build up his name identification in the more moderate corners of the state.

If Vander Plaats has one major weakness, it is his reputation as something of a one-trick pony.  While he has spent time in recent months talking to reporters about economic issues, he built his reputation on abortion and same-sex marriage, and it remains unclear whether fiscal conservatives in his party will give him much of a chance.  In past campaigns, they haven’t.  And Doug Gross, a social moderate and fiscal conservative who defeated Vander Plaats in the 2002 GOP gubernatorial primary, has already rejected Vander Plaats’s candidacy this time around.

At this point, Rants is seen as a more mainstream candidate than Vander Plaats.  A former Speaker of the Iowa House, Rants could likely raise more money than Vander Plaats.  And, since he oversaw all Republican campaigns for state house earlier this decade, he probably has a good perspective on what it will take to win statewide.

But Rants’s political experience is both a blessing and a curse.  He launched his career in politics early, leaving him few outside-the-capitol accomplishments to run on.  If the GOP’s best hope of a 2010 victory is by running as ‘outsiders’ against entrenched Democratic incumbents, Rants might not be a good fit.  And for a party that seems unusually interested in ideological purity these days, Republicans might not be willing to overlook compromises Rants had to make as a legislative leader to get anything done.  Anyone who has taken as many votes as Rants will have at least a few chinks in his ideological armor.

Aside from Rants and Vander Plaats, there are other names that are mentioned as potential candidates, but none has taken public steps to actually run.  Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey has not made a final decision yet, but he has not spent as much time in the limelight recently as a guy who was planning to run probably would.  Market to Market and Big Show personality Mark Pearson, state Rep. Rod Roberts of Carroll, millionaire agribussinessman Bruce Rastetter, and a few others have also been mentioned as possibilities.

For Culver’s part, the plan for the next six months is pretty much the same regardless of which Republican challengers emerge to take him on: raise money.

So far, the governor is doing well in that department, but it remains to be seen how much cash will continue to roll in from labor organizations, who still feel the sting of recent, high-profile defeats.  In 2008, Culver vetoed a labor-backed bill to expand collective bargaining rights of public employees, and in 2009, he was apparently unable to whip sufficient Democratic votes for any of labor’s four key legislative priorities.

Regardless of that, though, unless someone who can self-finance jumps into the race, Culver will likely have a bigger war chest by June of 2010 than whoever wins the GOP primary that month.  Depending on how fractured the primary is, the disparity could be narrow or wide, but Culver, the incumbent, is almost certain to be ahead financially.

That makes the 2010 gubernatorial race Culver’s to lose, even if his mediocre approval/disapproval numbers remain where they are today.  The GOP still has time to build the foundation of a winning gubernatorial campaign, but it’s not there yet, and the Democrats already have a big head start.  There are many reasons why Iowa almost never unseats a sitting governor in an election, and you can expect Culver to take advantage of all of them.

Both men have said previously that they are considering challenging Gov. Chet Culver next year. But in order to do so they would have to give up their current office, and most observers consider them safe bets for re-election if they do stay put.

Northey told the Associated Press’ Mike Glover that he is “leaning toward running for secretary of Agriculture,” but that his final decision would come this summer.

Vaudt said he hasn’t officially made up his mind, but according to Glover, “seemed more focused during the interview on his accomplishments as auditor.”

This comes on the heels of former Gov. Terry Branstad and Vermeer Corp. CEO Mary Andringa telling the Des Moines Register Wednesday that they will not run in 2010. So far, only Sioux City businessman and two-time gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats has officially thrown his hat in the ring.

However, former Republican Party of Iowa Political Director Craig Robinson reports on his blog that state Rep. Christopher Rants of Sioux City is beginning to “lay some ground work for a potential campaign,” visiting Davenport, Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Council Bluffs in the days since the legislative session ended. Rants said previously that Culver’s handling of the same-sex marriage issue would make him more likely to run for governor in 2010. Despite being ousted as minority leader late last year, Rants took a leading roll in the waning days of the 2009 session, spearheading his party’s efforts to overturn the Supreme Court’s gay marriage decision and casting one of only three votes against changes to the state’s sex offender laws.

Others who have indicated they are exploring a run include former state Sen. Jeff Lamberti of Ankeny, state Rep. Rob Roberts of Carroll, Ames businessman and GOP financier Bruce Rastetter and U.S. Rep. Steve King of Kiron.

Francis Thicke

Francis Thicke, an organic, grass-based dairy farmer near Fairfield, has formed an exploratory committee to consider a 2010 run for Iowa Secretary of Agriculture.

Thicke, and his wife, Susan, process milk on their farm and market it locally through grocery stores and restaurants. The couple believes there could be a major economic impact in the state if more farmers would market locally. It could, according to Thicke, “create thousands of new jobs and help revitalize rural communities in Iowa, as well as provide Iowans with fresh, nutritious food.”

“Iowa’s investment in ethanol production has brought economic development to agriculture, and we need to protect that investment,” he said. “However, it is time to reassess, and consider how future investments in renewable energy can be better targeted to profit farmers and better protect our natural resource base.”

Thicke, who holds a doctorate degree in agronomy and soil fertility, served with the U.S. Department of Agriculture as national program leader for soil science. He primarily worked with the USDA Extension Service. He has also been a frequent speaker at conferences and workshops in Iowa and across the nation on topics ranging from local food systems and economic development to organic farming practices to sustainable farming.

He has also served on the Iowa Environmental Protection Commission and the Iowa Food Policy Council at the appointment of then Gov. Tom Vilsack, and on the Iowa Organic Standards Board at the appointment of then Gov. Terry Branstad. He currently serves on Iowa’s USDA Technical Committee.

If Thicke, a Democrat, decides to place his name on the 2010 ballot for Secretary of Agriculture, he could face incumbent Bill Northey, a Republican who farms near the Spirit Lake area.  Northey has also been mentioned as a possible Republican challenger to Gov. Chet Culver.

Iowa Independent: This is your third run for governor. How is the 2010 campaign going to be different than your previous two?

Bob Vander Plaats: First of all, there are a lot of things that haven’t changed. One thing that hasn’t changed is my passion and commitment to the state of Iowa and the issues that it faces. Although one could argue that this is my third attempt at running for governor, I would say we’re still waiting for that first opportunity to run in the general election.

In 2002, we lost the primary by 1,500 votes in my first run for anything. In 2006, my party nominated me to be lieutenant governor with [former U.S. Rep.] Jim Nussle. The idea was that we would blend our resources, connect the eastern side of the state to the western side, but the Iowa voter wasn’t looking for D.C. to run Iowa. They wanted an Iowan to lead Iowa.

In 2010, I believe more than ever that Iowans are thirsting for leadership and are tired of politics as usual.

If I could throw one more thing in there, Jason, it’s that in 2008 I was the state chair for Gov. Mike Huckabee. He won Iowa by 9 percentage points while being outspent 15 to 1. That really goes to prove that he was not only a good candidate but was operating on an outstanding organization that we built.

II: So, is the hope that you can take the Huckabee campaign and shift it to the gubernatorial campaign?

BVP: No, in fact I’ve been clear that I don’t want this to be a repeat of the 2008 Caucuses. If you take a look at my team, Eric Woolson, who was with Gov. Huckabee and myself, is on my team. But my state chair is Jodie Tymeso, and she was with Mitt Romney. My co-chair is former state Auditor Dick Johnson and he was co-chair for John McCain. Bill Sailor is on my team and he was state chair for Tom Tancredo. Chuck Hurly is on my team and was state chair for Sam Brownback.

What I’m trying to point out is the organization I built in 2002 and have continued to build ever since is as solid and savvy an organization as you’re going to find anywhere for a Republican in Iowa, and that organization is ready to perform in 2010.

II: Taking a step back for a moment to your comment on your nomination with Jim Nussle and how Iowans didn’t want a person from D.C. running Iowa, do you think it was a mistake for you to join the Nussle campaign?

BVP: Absolutely not. It was our attempt to unify the party and get behind one candidate. We did that. To be quite honest with you, I gained a lot of supporters with that decision.  Was Jim Nussle a perfect candidate? No. Would he have been a perfect governor? No. But he’d be a lot better than what we are dealing with today.
II: Brent Hayworth at the Sioux City Journal pointed out the other day that several of the people who are believed to be contemplating a run for the GOP nomination are very similar to you, as in from western Iowa, social conservative, etc.  Are you worried that you’re base will be split during the primary?

BVP: First of all, we don’t know who will be in the primary. That’s all speculation at this point.

Obviously I’m from western Iowa, but we’re just as solid in eastern Iowa as we are in western Iowa. We feel our organization is extremely strong. I think the advantage I would have over some of the others who have been mentioned is that I’ve run a statewide campaign before.  When you run statewide, not only do people get the opportunity to know you, they get the opportunity to join your team and work for you.

II: The big issue before the legislature right now is the state’s budget. As governor, how would you go about balancing the budget?

BVP: I think what needs to be pointed out is that in 2007 the state budget was $5.3 billion. The budget introduced a couple weeks ago by Gov. Culver was $6.2 billion. That’s a $900 million increase. That’s a 17 percent increase.  Everybody is running around like the sky is falling, which points to a true lack of leadership and focus on our priorities.

Schools are a priority. Roads are a priority. Courts are a priority. Public safety is a priority. Those who need special assistance would be a priority. What I would like to see Gov. Culver do is say that these are our priorities. This is how we are going to fund them and this is how we’re going to live within our means. There is no reason the sky should be falling.

If we’re doing things that don’t fit with our priorities, we need to eliminate those.

Having a $600 million shortfall would actually excite me as the governor of Iowa because there is an urgency to reform government, to sharpen the saw, to get rid of the waste and really focus on our priorities. So I think there is an opportunity for leadership.

II: So do you think there is enough excess spending right now that cuts alone would be enough to balance the budget without negative consequences for Iowa’s citizens?

BVP: Absolutely.

If you go to most people’s households and asked them if they would take a 17 percent increase in what they earned since 2007, of course they would. But there are a lot of people out there who are suffering through a 17 percent decrease, or a 50 percent decrease. Yet, they have to provide for the needs of their home.

Business and industry are looking at how they can do more with less. Government has had this unsustainable growth patter of how to grow more and more and more, and somehow we get less and less. The system needs to be reformed.

The government needs a business mindset so we can educate our children better, provide better health care, provide better roads and have a better court system. That’s going to take leadership, and to be quite honest with you, whether it’s Gov. Culver or Sen. [Mike] Gronstal or Rep. [Pat] Murphy, no body is providing leadership.

II: So I can assume you probably don’t agree with Gov. Culver’s $700 million bonding plan?

BVP: First of all, most Iowans would say we don’t need anymore gambling in the state. So when you have a $700 million bond issue that is being paid for on the back of the gambling industry, Iowans read into it that you’re expanding gambling because the money the industry is producing is already committed to other things. So either tell me what you’re going to cut or tell me what casino you’re going to add in Iowa.

The bonding issue is not a good idea. And the gas tax is a horrible idea. That shows short-term memory deficit. It wasn’t very long ago gas was $3.80 a gallon. Now they want to raise the gas tax during a huge downturn in the economy so our citizens spend more money at the pump, more money at the grocery store, more money at the department store, and more money on college tuition. It’s such a regressive tax.

II: Does it surprise you that conservative groups like Iowa Farm Bureau and Republicans like state Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey support the idea?

BVP: It doesn’t surprise me, but it should be an indicator of a real problem. What I mean is these groups and individuals are so caught up in the “system think” that they need to get outside the box and think of a different way.

Yes, a 21st Century infrastructure is extremely important to the vitality of Iowa and there is definitely a role for government to play in that. But is the only way to get there a gas tax? No. We increase state government by $900 million. If we take a deep breath and contemplate that we realize just how much money we’re talking about. What if we would have only increased the budget $700 million and put $200 million into our infrastructure and reformed the way government works. That would be leadership, and I think all Iowans would support that.

Iowans have had it with the increased taxes. They’ve had it with the increase in government. They’ve had it with having their lives controlled. They want someone who will lead the state of Iowa, not just grow the size of government.

II: You mentioned reforming government just a moment ago. Democratic Sen. Matt McCoy has introduced legislation that aims to reform the state’s education system by forcing the consolidation small rural school districts.  What are your thoughts on the plan and how would Gov. Vander Plaats go about reforming Iowa’s education system?

BVP: First of all, Matt McCoy is not living in the real world. His suggestion is reeks of big government. It’s big brother trying to control you.

My kids go to a small school district just north of Sioux City. I’ll put our scores up against those in Des Moines any day. If he thinks these small schools need to be closed because they are inefficient or ineffective, I’d argue that he should take a big hammer to the Des Moines school district and break it into pieces. It’s way to big of a school district. It has terrible results that no one can be proud of. Is that what you want for our state, Matt? That is the wrong approach to education.

I believe in local control. I think the way you reform education is simple. Number one, you set high standards. Iowa should be a state that sets the international standard not responds to the international standard. We used to lead education in this country. We continue to reward and throw money at a huge bureaucracy that Matt McCoy supports.

Two, simplify funding to school districts so school boards and superintendents can actually be CEOs and leaders of their district. Then, have high accountability and high transparency. So, one school district can learn from another district. What you would see is once you take away the bridles to public education, you’ll see school districts making the best decisions on teachers, buildings and administrators.

II: I’d like to switch gears and talk about natural disasters. What do you think of the state’s response to last summer’s flooding?

BVP: I think Gov. Culver has demonstrated a pattern of, at the very least, unusual leadership. You have floods the likes of which Iowa has never seen and you fly around in a helicopter but you don’t call a special session. To me, Gov. Culver is choosing commissions over communities. He’s choosing policies over people.

These floods happened in June. We’re in the middle of February. These people are just stuck. A woman from Cedar Rapids told me just the other day that dealing with the floods wasn’t nearly as difficult as dealing with the bureaucracy and the slow response.

I think a legislative session, even if nothing got done, at least would have been a symbolic show of leadership. It would have brought in everybody to respond immediately to the communities in need. That’s what government is here for. But, now it’s February.

II: Starting today, what should the state do in regards to last summer’s floods?

BVP: This is no pun intended, but we do have a rainy day fund. If that wasn’t a rainy day, I don’t know what was. Iowans need to roll up their sleeves, from the governor to the legislators to the communities affected to churches, everybody, in order to have a real impact on recovery. What are we doing as Iowans to respond to the need and what are we doing to make sure the federal government gives Iowans its fair share. I don’t think that’s happening right now, and part of that is because the governor is not advocating for his state.

We should have dipped into the rainy day fund right away with the idea that we’ll ask forgiveness instead of permission when it comes to federal response. We have to advocate for the citizens of our state.

II: So should we tap into the entire rainy day fund?

BVP: No, but I think there are resources there so that the state could have had an immediate response that made a difference. Holding on to those funds because we hoped the federal government would bail us out or because the funds are already committed to other expenses, it’s just a lack of leadership.

Funds were available, there was a need, and we could have released some of the funds immediately.

II: Your most recent campaign was the caucus run by Gov. Huckabee in which he pledged to run positive campaign, talk about issues and avoid personal attacks. Will you operate under the same rules in 2010?

BVP: The goal and hope is to run a positive, issue-based campaign. My goal has been to give people something to vote for in 2010, not something to vote against. Hopefully they will buy into my vision for Iowa, my leadership background and experience.

So in the spirit of overzealousness that tends to enthrall political junkies everywhere when there isn’t a real campaign to watch, I decided that I should probably read as much into the whole thing as I could.

The basics

Vander Plaats opposes a gas tax increase like Gov. Chet Culver.

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, who is seen as another serious Republican candidate for governor, told the Iowa Independent that he was open to the idea, which has been supported by traditionally conservative groups like the Farm Bureau.

“I think generally with [agriculture] folks, a pay-as-you-go gas tax makes the most sense to address those road concerns,” Northey said. “I think everyone has been looking around for other options and there is no magic pot of money sitting around to do those things.”

Vander Plaats said he was surprised that some conservative groups were supportive of a gas tax increase, and he described it as a “real problem” within the Republican party:

“What I mean is these groups and individuals are so caught up in the ‘system think’ that they need to get outside the box and think of a different way,” he said, later adding: “Iowans have had it with the increased taxes. They’ve had it with the increase in government. They’ve had it with having their lives controlled. They want someone who will lead the state of Iowa, not just grow the size of government.”

How will the issue play itself out?

Bob Vander Plaats

While the merits of a gas tax increase are debatable on policy grounds, the political realities of advocating any kind of tax increase at the beginning of a Republican primary are pretty easy to grasp.  Republican primaries tend to penalize candidates who want to raise taxes, and they tend to reward candidates who want to lower taxes.

Let’s trudge a little deeper into the weeds.

If Northey decides to run for governor in 2010, he could probably survive his openness to a gas tax increase if it stays out of the Iowa Code and remains an abstract idea.  Once he gets onto the campaign trail, he could back away from supporting a gas tax increase in the near future, and Vander Plaats would not be able to use the issue to any significant advantage.

Bill Northey

The more interesting scenario would happen if a gas tax increase passes this year.  Northey would have trouble coming out against this particular increase after his expression of openness to it just last week, and he would be caught between a rock and the Farm Bureau if he tried.

With a gas tax increase on the books, Northey could lose support among anti-tax fiscal conservatives. Northey will probably need to win over the more fiscally conservative wing of his party if he hopes to defeat Vander Plaats, whose strongest support will likely come from the socially conservative wing of the GOP.

Now, put yourself in Culver’s shoes: Northey is a popular Secretary of Agriculture, and he won his position by an impressive margin in 2006, a year that saw significant gains for Democratic candidates everywhere else on the ballot.  Vander Plaats is a serious candidate, but he has no government experience and a history of losing campaigns.  Whom would you rather face in the 2010 general election?

Culver says he opposes an increase in the gas tax, but he has not explicitly threatened a veto yet.  Some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have signaled support for the idea, and bills have been introduced in both chambers of the state legislature.  If a bill ends up on the governor’s desk for a signature, the chance to hang an albatross around Northey’s neck — one that could knock him out of the GOP primary and stall his burgeoning political career — could prove tempting.

I’m not saying it’ll happen, but who knows?

Sioux City businessman and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bob Vander Plaats.

The Sioux City Republican told the Iowa Independent that it was overspending during Gov. Chet Culver’s first two years in office that led the state into the budget crisis, and that budget reductions will right the ship.

“Everybody is running around like the sky is falling, which points to a true lack of leadership and focus on our priorities,” Vander Plaats said.

Vander Plaats, who previously ran for governor in 2002 and 2006, said the state budget presented in January by Culver is $900 million larger than it was in 2007. So instead of increasing taxes or borrowing to fix a projected budget shortfall, the state could feasibly cut everything that is not a priority.

“Schools are a priority. Roads are a priority. Courts are a priority. Public safety is a priority. Those who need special assistance would be a priority,” he said. “What I would like to see Gov. Culver do is say that these are our priorities. This is how we are going to fund them and this is how we’re going to live within our means. There is no reason the sky should be falling.”

Culver’s $700 million bonding plan, which the governor said is the best way to repair infrastructure in desperate need of attention due to neglect and last summer’s flooding, is just an invitation for more gambling to be introduced to the state, Vander Plaats said. The governor has said he will secure the bonds with $56 million a year in gambling revenue.

“So when you have a $700 million bond issue that is being paid for on the back of the gambling industry, Iowans read into it that you’re expanding gambling because the money the industry is producing is already committed to other things,” he said. “So either tell me what you’re going to cut or tell me what casino you’re going to add in Iowa.”

One area where Vander Plaats and his Democratic rival do agree is on the gas tax. Legislators have proposed increasing the tax Iowans pay per gallon of gasoline 8 cents over the next two years. Culver has said it isn’t prudent to raise any taxes during an economic downturn, a sentiment Vander Plaats shares.

It was on the subject of the gas tax increase where Vander Plaats fired what some could consider the first shot of the campaign for his party’s nomination for governor. Several conservative groups, like the Iowa Farm Bureau and local chambers of commerce, have supported the idea of increasing the gas tax to fund infrastructure repair. Joining them is state Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey, who said last month he is considering running for governor himself.

Northey told the Iowa Independent earlier this month that the condition of Iowa’s roads and the impact that could have on the agriculture economy have people who would normally oppose any tax increase, himself included, willing to give the gas tax a chance.

“I think generally with [agriculture] folks, a pay-as-you-go gas tax makes the most sense to address those road concerns,” Northey said. “I think everyone has been looking around for other options and there is no magic pot of money sitting around to do those things.”

Vander Plaats said he is not surprised some Republicans and conservative groups support the gas tax, “but it should be an indicator of a real problem.

“What I mean is these groups and individuals are so caught up in the ‘system think’ that they need to get outside the box and think of a different way,” he said, later adding: “Iowans have had it with the increased taxes. They’ve had it with the increase in government. They’ve had it with having their lives controlled. They want someone who will lead the state of Iowa, not just grow the size of government.”

Vander Plaats hopes that the network of supporters he has built in his two previous gubernatorial campaigns, along with his work as state chair for Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s successful Iowa caucus campaign, will finally push him past the primaries and into the general election.

“What I’m trying to point out is the organization I built in 2002 and have continued to build ever since is as solid and savvy an organization as you’re going to find anywhere for a Republican in Iowa, and that organization is ready to perform in 2010,” he said.

Sen. Tom Rielly, chair of the Senate Transportation Committee, said bills are being drafted in both legislative chambers to increase the state's fuel tax.

Democratic Gov. Chet Culver has said repeatedly that he does not want lawmakers to raise the gas tax. He is joined in his opposition by Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, along with some conservative lawmakers in both legislative chambers.

Supporters of the increase include Democratic leadership in both the House and the Senate, with Senate President Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg, becoming the issue’s champion when he declared a “war on potholes” on the legislative session’s opening day.

But the Democrats aren’t alone. Conservative groups like the Iowa Farm Bureau and state chambers of commerce have also supported the idea, and several prominent Republicans, including Rep. Dave Tjepkes, the ranking Republican on the House Transportation Committee, and potential gubernatorial candidate and state Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, have said they think the idea has merit.

Even the group Iowans for Tax Relief, a highly influential organization within the Republican Party of Iowa, has not come out against the tax increase. It has announced it will remain neutral on the plan.

While it appears everyone agrees that Iowa’s roads and bridges are in desperate need of repair, how to pay for it could end up becoming the showdown that defines the 2009 General Assembly.

Is it good policy?
Supporters of the fuel tax contend that Iowa needs more money to maintain the road system and make improvements to support economic development. A 10-cent increase in fuel taxes would raise an additional $210 million annually for city, county and state road projects, said state Sen. Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa, chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee.

One of the biggest selling points of the increase, Rielly said, is that studies show 20 percent of the new funds will be paid by motorists from outside Iowa.

“The average Iowan would only end up paying about $52 more a year than they do right now,” he said. “I don’t think people should have to pay anything more, but if we don’t pay now we will all pay much more later.”

Iowa motorists now pay estimated state taxes of 21 cents per gallon for regular gasoline; 19 cents per gallon for ethanol-blended gasoline; 17 cents per gallon for E-85 fuel; and 22.5 cents per gallon for diesel fuel. The state hasn’t raised the tax since 1989.

If federal gas taxes are added, Iowa motorists pay a total of 40.1 cents per gallon, according to a study by the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group. The Iowa gas tax total ranked 32nd nationally and was below the national average of 48.4 cents per gallon.

Gov. Chet Culver made his case for a $700 million state bonding proposal while surrounded by stud-bare and plastic-covered walls at the Cedar Rapids Public Works Building. (photo by Lynda Waddington)

A possible gas tax increase failed to gain traction among legislators last year amid a lack of support from Culver and high prices at the gas pump.

“Last year the governor said ‘no,’” said Craig Lang, president of Iowa Farm Bureau. “This year he has never used the words ‘under no circumstances.’ I think with enough bipartisan support he would sign it.”

In lieu of a gas tax increase, lawmakers last year approved increases in vehicle registration fees expected to gradually generate $165 million annually for road projects. But a report in December by the Iowa Department of Transportation said road and bridge conditions are worsening because of insufficient investment and the impact of extreme weather.

These problems are coupled with rising construction costs and a flattening of state and federal revenues, which reduces the buying power of state and local agencies, Rielly said.

Over the past five years, the costs associated with the primary materials used in road construction have increased by an average of 12 percent per year. At the same time, Rielly said, revenues from the road fuel tax have remained relatively static, growing only 1 percent per year.

According to DOT data, costs for roadway excavation have more than doubled. In 1989, the last time the fuel tax was increased, $9.90 bought 10 cubic yards. The same amount in 2006 paid for only 4 cubic yards. Asphalt prices have doubled as well, with $209.50 buying 10 tons in 1989 to 5 tons in 2006. Cement, reinforced steel, structural steel and concrete prices also have increased.

“The fuel tax is the only thing I’ve seen that’s fair and equitable to pay for vital infrastructure needs,” said Rielly, who also believes bills are being crafted in both chambers and should be ready to be assigned to subcommittees soon.

The agricultural economy
“I recently went to an agriculture forum in Pella,” said Lang. “The thing everyone wanted to talk about was roads. They didn’t want to talk about the damage to crops caused by last summer’s flooding. They wanted to talk about the terrible state of rural roads.”

The agricultural economy will suffer if Iowa continues to ignore the state of its roadways, Lang said.

Many observers believe one reason Culver opposes the increase is that he is seeking re-election next year. A Des Moines Register poll last year found that a majority of Iowans do not support a gas tax increase. However, agricultural concerns have Northey, one of Culver’s potential rivals in 2010, saying the time is right to move on the tax.

“I think generally with [agriculture] folks, a pay-as-you-go gas tax makes the most sense to address those road concerns,” Northey said.

“I think everyone has been looking around for other options and there is no magic pot of money sitting around to do those things. I think most folks like the consistency of a gas tax that is going to be there not only this year and next year but as other projects need to happen it will be there down the road. “

Northey told the Iowa Independent that the fact that money from the gas tax would go into the road use fund is also a plus, since it is constitutionally protected from being spent on anything except road and bridge repair.

Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey

“The state of our roads has a lot of people in the state that would usually oppose something like this starting to support it,” he said. “I think everybody knows we have to do something or we’ll end up with real problems down the road.”

Not everyone is convinced, first and foremost among them Culver.

“Given that the nation is in the midst of a recession, the governor does not feel this is a time when people should pay higher taxes, whether at the gas pump or anyplace else,” said Phil Roeder, Culver’s deputy chief of staff.

“With so much financial uncertainty across the country, we want to make sure people can hold on to their hard-earned money.”

Roeder said Culver’s $700 million bonding proposal is a better way to address a wide range of infrastructure projects, including roads and bridges, and does so with existing revenue, not tax increases.

House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, said two separate bonding bills will be put forward, one costing $160 million to pay for projects approved last year and another to deal with infrastructure needs. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, said opinions vary on whether bonding and a gas tax increase are mutually exclusive, which is why legislation to fund infrastructure repair will take a while to craft.

Rielly said he would like to see more detail to Culver’s bonding plan and would hate to see the money spent on roads that have to be fixed again in 10 years.

“We will still be paying for them in 20 years,” he said. “But there are lots of other projects the money could pay for.”

The bonding money could feasibly be spent on projects that do not include roads and bridges, Rielly said.  He cited a possible new sewer system in Ottumwa that is estimated to cost $180 million as an example of ways bonding could have a positive impact.

“Sewer systems, power grids, projects like this could be good candidates for the bonding money,” Rielly said.

Senate Minority Leader McKinley is opposing both bonding and a gas tax increase, saying the state can do a better job prioritizing existing budget expenditures without increasing its debt or the tax burden on citizens.

Opponents also contend that gas tax collections are slowing as cars get more miles on each gallon, and as gas prices force Americans to reduce their driving. Hitching Iowa’s infrastructure future to this funding source could have dire consequences down the road.

But the House Transportation Committee’s Tjepkes, a Republican from Gowrie, said on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” that he believes Republicans will be willing to work with Democrats on the gas tax.

“I would tend to support a gas tax increase under certain circumstances,” he said.

Ultimately, most agree it will be up to Culver. The idea will die if he indicates he will veto any gas tax increase, something he’s stopped short of so far.

“I’ve said to our caucus it’s a three-legged stool, the House, the Senate and the governor’s office, and any time you leave one leg of the stool out you kind of fall down on a painful spot,” Gronstal said.

The five-term Republican said “converstations are taking place” about what his campaign team might look like and who is likely to support him. However, he does not have a timetable for making his decision.

“I think I bring a different kind of philosophy as a candidate, one that might separate me from others and would be helpful to the Republican party now,” Roberts said. The party has “distinct points of view of the values of the Republican party and the direction it should take.”

“A campaign for governor should be more about leadership than about issues, about who is capable of leading not just the party, but the state,” he said.

Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats officially entered the race last week. Other Republicans, like state Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, state Auditor David Vaudt and businessman Bruce Rastetter have also said they are interested in challenging incumbent Gov. Chet Culver in 2010.

No one is sure how vulnerable Gov. Chet Culver will be in 2010, when he will likely run for reelection, but this week, we have a better picture of which Republican political figures might challenge him.

There’s Bob Vanderplaats, a well-connected social conservative who was 2006 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jim Nussle’s running-mate.  Vanderplaats formally launched an exploratory committee yesterday because, well, he did not already have a committee that could raise money for his statewide campaign.  His biggest challenge?  Prove to GOP primary voters that he’s more than a single-issue candidate, that he is a serious, electable candidate statewide.

Then there are Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey and State Auditor David Vaudt, two Republicans who have proven they can win statewide.  In recent interviews, neither would rule out challenging Culver in 2010.  You can take them at their word that they haven’t decided whether to run yet, but it’s a safe bet that they’d be happy to accept contributions to their already-existing campaign committees if you’d like to get in on the ground floor…  Their biggest challenges?  Balancing the desire to wait and see how vulnerable Culver is with the need to enter the race early to sew up the GOP nomination.

Will both Northey and Vaudt run?

Not likely.  They would have to decline to run for reelection to their current offices before getting very far in the gubernatorial race.  Why would both of them give up their jobs just so one of them could lose in a messy primary and have nothing?  Both of them stand very good chances of being reelected in their current jobs if they want to keep them.  The only way I see them both running is as a ticket, which, now that I mention it, is an interesting possibility, but I have no actual evidence that a deal is in the works.

How vulnerable is the governor?

The easy answer is that we’re too far from November 2010 to know.  But we do know a few things.  Midterm elections are typically bad for the political party that controls the White House, so there is some thought that Culver will be vulnerable in 2010 for that reason alone.  Some also believe that in times of economic uncertainty, voters tend to blame the party that’s in power.  Of course, there is also the conventional wisdom that says that voters tend to trust Democrats more than Republicans when they are worried most about making ends meet.  Many questions remain.