U.S. Rep. Tom Latham, R-Ames

The overwhelming defeat left many observers scratching their heads and wondering what happened. President Obama won the district by 8 points and carried all but one of the counties. Twelve of the district’s 20 state House members are Democrats, along with eight of its 10 state senators.

“This is a Democratic district,” said Tom Harrington, chairman of the 4th District Democratic Central Committee.

At the end of the day, the race came down to money and organization, two things the campaign of Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald didn’t have. But going into 2010, Democrats are working to avoid repeating mistakes from years past.

The district’s Democratic central committee has formed a task force charged with finding a Democrat who can make a strong run against Latham in 2010. Co-chaired by two former candidates for Congress, Selden Spencer and Kurt Meyer, the group is actively recruiting candidates and attempting to lay the groundwork for a successful campaign.

“We haven’t had this type of work being done this early in the last three cycles,” Harrington said. “We’re hoping that by organizing early, helping find good candidates and having this infrastructure in place for them that it will be a big leg up over what past candidates have had.”

Meyer, who placed second in the district’s 2008 primary, said the task force’s organizing and fundraising goals will build off of each other.

“We want to find the best possible candidate and we want to make the nomination worth having by putting together an organization and a fundraising pool that someone could step into right away,” he said. “I think both of these goals make the other easier, meaning a good candidate will motivate people to come out and get involved and an organized party will help draw out the best candidates.”

Rather than spending time “ferreting out possible campaign donors or volunteers,” whomever the party nominates will be able to jump right into the race to unseat Latham, Meyer said.

“That keeps the candidate from spending months doing the things that are necessary but mundane,” he said. “The party organization in the 4th district traditionally has been a county-by-county organization. There has not been a lot of coordination. This year, we have put more emphasis on thinking earlier in the game about what we can and should do to advance a successful congressional campaign.”

The party isn’t trying to avoid a primary, Harrington said. In fact, he expects there to be a hotly contested race for the party’s nomination.

“We’re just here to encourage all the best candidates to get into the race,” he said. “The party will remain neutral until we have a candidate.”

The goal is also to avoid mistakes that have been made in the past, Harrington said. Democrats have been slow to jump into the race in previous years, something that hurt them in the general election.

“I’d love to see someone jump in by late summer or early fall,” he said.

Another mistake, Meyer said, is focusing too much on whether the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will get involved in the race. In the past, he said, candidates have made decisions that were not based on how to win an election but rather on how to coax the DCCC into spending money in the district.

“I personally think we have to go about our business in a way that says if the DCCC jumps in, that’s great,” Meyer said. “But I think it can lead to what amounts to some peculiar thought patterns. You end up thinking you have to make the DCCC happy so that they will jump into the race. We have to rely on ourselves. No one from outside the district is going to ride in over the hill and pull our chestnuts out of the fire. We have to take care of our own destiny.”

While he didn’t mention Greenwald’s candidacy in 2008 specifically, many observers point to her campaign’s decision to spend a considerable amount of money on an early television advertising campaign to introduce herself to voters as a mistake. Most believe the move was designed to improve her polling numbers in an attempt to convince the DCCC the race was close enough to warrant their attention.

The plan didn’t work, the DCCC’s support never materialized, and while Greenwald was able to purchase a 60-second television ad the night of Barack Obama’s 30-minute national address, her campaign was left with no money in the final weeks of the race.

According to paperwork filed with the Federal Election Commission just before the election, Latham had $775,000 cash on hand compared to a little more than $25,000 for Greenwald, despite the fact that the Democrat outraised Latham in July, August and September. 

As of March 31, Latham has $113,944 cash on hand for his 2010 campaign.

“We are going to set our own course,” Meyer said. “If we do our job then it makes it more appealing for the DCCC to get involved, rather than sitting around crossing our fingers and devising a strategy to lure them into getting involved.”

Raising money in the 4th Congressional District has proven difficult in the past, Harrington said, since it is mostly made up of rural counties. That is why the party will be holding three fundraisers this August around the district in order to help support the congressional candidate for the 2010 fight.

“We really haven’t had the coordination across the district, which could help in a lot of ways, including fundraising,” he said. “Starting in August, we are holding three regional fundraisers for the south and central part in Ames, for the northwestern part of the district in Estherville and then the northeastern part in Decorah.”

Both Meyer, who ran in the 2008 Democratic primary, and Greenwald said they have not ruled out another run, but have not decided whether they will jump into the race again. But Meyer said his candidacy is not why he got involved in the task force, saying he just wants the best candidate to step forward.

“I think there are some really good candidates out there,” he said. “I really hope some of them would be interested in running. I think we will find the strongest possible candidate.”

U.S. Rep. Tom Latham, R-Ames, scored a 20-point victory on Tuesday over challenger Becky Greenwald.

But when the polls closed, it quickly became clear that voters wanted to send Latham back to Washington, and in the end, he coasted to a 20-point victory and carried all 28 counties of the 4th Congressional District.

So how did this race go from hotly contested to blowout? The answer, most say, can be found by looking a both candidates’ bank accounts.

According to paperwork filed with the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15, Latham, of Ames, had $775,000 cash on hand compared to a little more than $25,000 for Greenwald, of Perry.  While Greenwald out-raised Latham in July, August and September, she spent almost all of that money on an early television advertising campaign to introduce herself to voters, a move that left her campaign with no money in the final weeks of the race.

“When she ran out of money and went dark on television in the weeks prior to the election, that was it,” said Tom Henderson, chair of the Polk County Democratic Party. “Several polls showed Greenwald creeping up on Latham before that, but with no advertising push Latham pulled ahead.”

If she’d had the resources to stay on television, the race would have been much closer, and “maybe she would have even won,” Henderson said.

Dennis Goldford, political science professor at Drake University, said defeating an incumbent is always a tall order, but to do so while being outspent by huge margins is an uphill struggle.

“She simply didn’t have enough money,” he said. “She didn’t have a lot to work with.”

And the television ad campaign was biographical, drawing no distinctions between the Greenwald and her opponent.

Many thought the endorsement of EMILY’s List, a group that funds Democratic women candidates who support abortion rights, and the inclusion of the 4th District race in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list would bring an influx of cash into Greenwald’s coffers. But that support never materialized, and while Greenwald was able to purchase a 60-second television ad the night of Barack Obama’s 30-minute national address, her campaign was off the air in Iowa very early in the race.

Latham on the other hand had ads up all the way through Election Day, both on television and radio, including one that criticized Greenwald for saying she would have supported the $700 billion Wall Street bail out bill if she were in Congress. Latham voted against the bail out twice.

“Tom Latham is just not a firebrand like (Republican U.S. Rep.) Steve King,” said Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and adviser to the school’s campus Republicans. “So a lot of people, even those who consider themselves Democrats, are going to vote for Latham because he’s the incumbent. That’s the disadvantage a challenger has.”

Even though Obama carried a majority of the district’s counties, Greenwald was still defeated by a large margin. In Story County, home of Iowa State University, Obama garnered 26,268 votes, or 57 percent, for president, to Republican John McCain’s 18,812, or 41 percent. Latham recieved 24,236, or 55 percent, to Greenwald’s 20,107, or 45 percent.

“There were a lot of ticket-splitters,” Goldford said. “Obama’s coattails just were not long enough to oust a veteran incumbent like Tom Latham.”

For the first time, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in the 4th, but a lot of that was Republicans who registered as Democrats to caucus for Obama, Henderson said. So even though Obama’s appeal to moderate Republicans contributed to his victory nationwide, those Republicans were less likely to support Democrats down ballot.

“Iowans are always reluctant to fire incumbents,” he said. “I just think that was a tough race from the beginning.”

U.S. Rep. Tom Latham, R-Ames

With 85 percent of precincts reporting, the Ames Republican has received 60 percent of the vote, compared to 40 percent for Greenwald, a Democrat from Perry. That includes winning every one of the north-central district’s 28 counties.

In a speech to supporters at the Gateway Hotel in Ames, Latham said the campaign was successful because it never took victory for granted

“This campaign was run like we were 10 points behind,” he said.

The 4th District race was widely considered to be one of the nation’s most competitive, with Greenwald receiving support form the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List. Time Magazine named it as one of 12 key races to watch.

Latham was elected as the congressman for Iowa’s 5th District in 1994 as part of the wave that allowed Republicans to take over the House for the first time since 1955. The 2000 round of redistricting, however, significantly altered Iowa’s congressional map and placed Latham in the new 4th District retained only a small portion of his old district.

Since redistricting, Latham has consistently received roughly 60 percent of the vote.

The paper said differences between Latham and his Democratic opponent, Becky Greenwald, are easy to find, as both “toe the party line on most issues.” After contrasting both candidates positions on health care, renewable energy and the $700 billion Wall Street bailout bill, the only major sticking point for the Tribune was Latham’s continued support of the Iraq War. But even that wasn’t enough to sway the 10,000 circulation daily to Greenwald.

Greenwald is to be commended for leaving a life in the background and stepping into the public view, but we think she’s not quite a strong enough candidate to unseat Latham.

The Tribune’s editorial board endorses Tom Latham to represent Iowa’s 4th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“If we add nine Democratic, pro-choice women to the [U.S.] House this cycle — and when I say ‘this cycle,’ I mean the entire cycle including special elections — that would be the second-most in the history of the United States,” said Jonathan Parker, EMILY’s List political director, during a conference call with women activists on Monday. “It seems kinda hard to believe, but that’s how tough the work is that EMILY’s List is doing. The [gains] in 1992 would be the most, of course, but this would be the second-most.”

Because of four special elections — Donna Edwards in Maryland, Niki Tsongas in Massachusetts, Jackie Speier in California, and Laura Richardson in California — the organization is already well on its way to the goal.

EMILY’s List has endorsed candidates in three gubernatorial, two U.S. Senate, 31 U.S. House and hundreds of other local races across the country.

“Of those 31 House contests, 20 are what I would call in-play open-seat or challenger races,” Parker said. “Each of those 20 seats are take-back opportunities. So, not only do we have a lot of House races in this cycle, but we have a lot of House races that are opportunities to win back a Republican seat.”

One of those races is in Iowa’s Fourth Congressional District, where Democrat Becky Greenwald faces Republican Congressman Tom Latham.

Taking over a currently Republican seat in Congress, especially one that has been in Republican hands since the district was drawn in 2001 and one that is currently held by a congressman that has served since 1994, would be a boon for the women’s political action committee. There is also little doubt that EMILY’s List would like to claim at least partial credit for Iowa finally electing a woman to serve in Congress. No one is under the illusion, however, that Greenwald has an easy row to hoe.

“We hadn’t really talked with [Greenwald] until after she won her primary,” Parker said. “She came in here and was very impressive, and we came on board for her soon thereafter. She’s a great fit for this District and [incumbent Republican U.S. Rep.] Tom Latham seems to be the ‘missing in action congressman’ of Iowa. Yet, he’s raised a hell of a lot of money and he’s spending it on television. Becky doesn’t have a lot of money. We’ve tried to raise her some, and we’ve had some luck, but it’s just been a tough slog for her to get up on television the way she needs to.”

Greenwald reported $490,128 in receipts through Oct. 15, according to documents with the Federal Elections Commission. Latham, however, reported $1,426,603 in receipts for that same time period — more than half attributed to political action committees. Despite the money disparities that have plagued Greenwald’s bid from the beginning, a recent poll conducted by Research 2000 on behalf of leftist Daily Kos shows she and Latham in a statistical dead heat. If the Democratic storm some pundits have glimpsed on the horizon makes landfall in Iowa, Parker believes Greenwald is in an ideal position to capitalize and pull off the upset win.

“A couple of weeks ago, when we were talking internally about the races to have the best opportunity to perhaps ride … a national lift,” Parker said. “Becky’s race was the first one I said. I think [Iowa's 4th District] is one that should really see a benefit from a strong showing for Sen. Barack Obama.”

The fact that there was a 2006 Iowa Congressional race in which an under-funded Democratic candidate was able to remove a long-serving Republican from office has not gone unnoticed by Parker.

“I think Becky Greenwald is in an excellent position to become, for lack of a better phrase, the Dave Loebsack of 2008 — a candidate who is able to ride in on the voters’ absolute desire for change,” he said. “She’s in a district that I believe at the end of the day is going to vote Democratic. Our fingers are crossed and we’re talking to Becky and her staff nearly every day.”

For the first time since district lines were redrawn in 2001, Iowa’s 4th Congressional District has more registered Democrats than Republicans. As is the case with Iowa as a whole, however, individuals who have registered without party affiliation outnumber voters affiliated with either major party.

Prior to the 2008 Democratic registration advances, however, voters in the 4th District have proven to be less uniformly partisan than one might expect. In 2000 and in 2004 Democratic presidential hopefuls Al Gore and John Kerry garnered 48 percent of the vote; but, between those two general elections, U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic mainstay in Iowa, carried all 28 counties in 2002. In 2006, when current Democratic Gov. Chet Culver faced a difficult race against former Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle, 22 of the 4th District’s 28 counties supported Culver.

Overall, Latham draws support from 47 percent of likely voters in the 4th district, while Greenwald draws support from 42 percent.  11 percent of likely voters said they were undecided.

Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, leads Sen. Barack Obama, his Democratic opponent, by a similar margin in the 4th district — 46-42.

That Greenwald has pulled within the margin of error in a public poll is an accomplishment in itself.  In 2006, a strong Democratic year, Latham defeated Democrat Selden Spencer by 14 percentage points.

In making our endorsement for the 4th District Congress race, one question trumped the rest:

Could Democratic challenger Becky Greenwald do a better job for North Iowa than incumbent Republican Tom Latham? The answer was no.

That’s why we’re supporting Latham, R-Ames, for an eighth term.

The newspaper noted that Latham has been there for Mason City on bread-and-butter issues.

He has secured funding for both overpass projects in Mason City, a grant for sanitary sewers to serve land annexed to the south of the city, funding for the water treatment plant — and those types of examples can be repeated throughout the district.

Most recently, he was impressive in his persistence in gaining federal aid for North Iowa in the wake of the flooding — a story that’s still not complete.

Iowa Republican Tom Latham sailed into the House of Representatives on a sea of change in 1994, when his party swept into power. Could Latham sail out on a different partisan sea of change in 2008 — and, in the process, make way for the election of Iowa’s first congresswoman?

…

To date, both candidates have used limited, largely positive television advertising, with Latham running as a “trusted leader” and Greenwald as an “independent thinker.”

The report from Time discusses candidate differences and notes the change from primarily positive advertising to a more rough-and-tumble marketing strategies.

U.S. House races from New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Mississippi, Florida, California, Washington and New Jersey are also featured in the report, as are U.S. Senate races from Minnesota and Virginia.

The ad, which is airing district wide on television, is critical of his opponent Becky Greenwald’s support of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout bill passed by Congress in reaction to a downturn in the financial markets.

Latham twice voted against a bailout package, calling it a reward to CEOs with no guarantee that it would work. Greenwald, D-Perry, has said she would have supported the bill if she was in Congress because the cost of doing nothing nothing was too great. She also said the bill, while not perfect, helps to put a floor under the crisis.

The race, which had been relatively low key, has grown more contentious since the pair faced off in two radio debates last week.

Latham opened the line of attack Monday. The 12-year incumbent’s previous two TV ads focused on his own record in Congress.

Greenwald has been highly critical of Latham’s position on health care and social security.