Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a 44-year-old with five children, a captivating TV-mom look and a brief and but weighty background as a reformer governor, could vault from relative national obscurity to star in a game-turning role as John McCain’s running mate.

In fact, of all the candidates under consideration to ride shotgun with the Arizona senator, Palin brings the most to McCain. The Republican Alaska governor should be his choice.

Millions of Americans fell in love with Barack Obama’s biography. They’ll go for Palin’s too — and perhaps relate more to it. She hunts and fishes, and in Iowa, where girls basketball is a major cultural force, the fact that this governor led her high school team as point guard to an Alaska state title as “Sarah Barracuda” will resonate. She appears to pull off the Clair Huxtable balancing act: being strong and feminine at the same time.

The Almanac of National Politics speaks of her thusly: “An avid hunter and fisher with a killer smile who wears designer glasses and heels, and hair like modern sculpture.”

Her oldest son, Track, is in the military (having enlisted in the Army on Sept. 11, 2007), and she opted to continue with a pregnancy of her fifth child, born recently with Down syndrome. She is not only pro-life, but she has a son to prove it.

With his strengths being experience in Washington — as measured by tenure in the Senate — and foreign policy, McCain, 72 in August, can afford to go with a true balancer, someone much younger with a strong suit in domestic issues. And a woman.

Elected in 2006, Palin admittedly has had a short run as governor of a state most of us associate with exotic cruises and a oil-drilling debate no one really understands but on which everyone has an opinion.

She has astronomical approval ratings in Alaska and is getting a good deal of press for going after corruption and focusing on fiscal responsibility. The Politico reports that as governor she has shown a willingness to veto some of the state’s large capital projects.

While some Republicans may worry that Palin would get knocked around in a vice presidential debate by, say, U.S. Joe Biden, D-Del., it could actually work to the ticket’s advantage in the same way Hillary’s tears did in New Hampshire, not that Sarah would be crying over a botched point on North Korea. The Democrats would have to be careful about bullying her, and she would be a vessel for Hillaryites, bulging with estrogen, looking for a reason to bolt the party. What’s more, suburban women, a key swing block now seemingly more fit for Obama, could actually be pulled by Palin, one of their own in a very real sense.

And the press — with spectacularly little knowledge of Alaska and life there — would seize on her family background. Her husband, Todd, is a four-time winner of the Iron Dog, the world’s longest snow machine race. The McCain camp will get weeks of biography stories on Palin, and she will puncture the stodgy stereotype of the party. She’ll also play well in rural America where McCain, with provocative comments and a farm-unfriendly voting history, will face more challenges than he now expects.

Think about this way: Imagine the reaction to the selection of Mitt Romney as a vice presidential candidate. What does that get MccCain? Maybe Michigan, but likely not. A known white male governor like Tim Pawlenty from Minnesota is about as inspiring as a Wednesday — and with Obama’s lead there, he may not even pull that state.

Palin completely changes the complexion of the election and helps establish a narrative of two mavericks, one too old and one too young, waging an underdog quest against Battlestar Barack.

Still, we pay attention to certain numbers because campaigns and some observers consider them important. We tallied up newspaper and state legislative endorsements, we read dozens of polls (always skeptically), we measured crowd sizes and reactions, and we kept a close eye on each candidate’s movement through the state.

With caucus night nearly upon us, now seems like a good time to check the scoreboard for a few of the numbers we have been watching over the course of the campaign.Newspaper Endorsements

Over the past month, newspapers across Iowa have issued their presidential endorsements.  Sen. Hillary Clinton holds claim to the “holy grail” of newspaper endorsements, that of The Des Moines Register, but Sen. Barack Obama’s total number of endorsements is double Clinton’s.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain holds a somewhat surprising lead in Iowa newspaper endorsements considering his reluctance to campaign here.  Gov. Mike Huckabee has nearly as many endorsements as McCain, but McCain’s Register endorsement gives him a wide lead in terms of circulation.

Although certain newspapers carry more influence than others, few believe that any will have much of an impact on caucus-goers’ first choices on caucus night.  Their primary impact may be on candidates’ second choice support, which is relevant to the Democratic caucuses during the realignment period.

Click here for the latest newspaper endorsement scoreboard.

State Legislative Endorsements

Campaigns have been quick to tout endorsements from state legislators, but no release ever claimed a direct connection between such endorsements and tangible results on caucus night.  Still, state legislators are often viewed as credible political experts by their supportive constituents.  At the very least, they have helped candidates build crowds for events in their districts.  And on caucus night, they may exert some influence over the loyal activists in the room.

On the Democratic side, all but 11 state legislators have issued endorsements.  Clinton holds a one-legislator lead over Obama, 21 to 20.  In a surprising third place, Sen. Joe Biden has garnered 16.  Click here for the latest Democratic endorsement scoreboard.

On the GOP side, nearly 50% of state legislators remain uncommitted.  Gov. Mitt Romney leads the field with endorsements.  McCain has  8, and Thompson has 6.  Click here for the latest GOP endorsement scoreboard.

Statewide Organization

Several numbers didn’t seem to fit into categories of their own, but rather fit into the general category of “organizational strength.”  For instance, Obama has 37 campaign offices across the state, while Clinton has 34 and former Sen. John Edwards has 25.  In terms of staff, most campaigns remain mum about their total numbers as best they can, but both Clinton and Obama reportedly have more than 300 paid employees on the ground.  And Edwards has 175 by his campaign’s own admission.

Another important statistic is 99.  It is the total number of counties in Iowa, and only Edwards and Gov. Bill Richardson have campaigned in them all.

And finally, there’s crowd size.  At Iowa Independent, we have used differences in crowd size as part of our justification for predicting an Obama victory in our recent Democratic Power Rankings.  We have noticed significantly larger crowds at Obama appearances than at Edwards or Clinton appearances in the same small towns, and the Obama campaign has made its own crowd size comparisons public in an effort to illustrate a trend.  Whether or not the trend holds true statewide, crowd size is not merely a measure of the enthusiasm a candidate generates.  It is most valuable as a demonstration of the ability of a candidate’s organization to convince caucus-goers to leave their homes to attend a political event — an ability that will be crucial Thursday night.

Polling

Although polling the Iowa caucuses is an incredibly difficult task, compounded this year by the caucus date’s proximity to the holiday season, it may have an impact on caucus-goers’ final decisions.  Because caucusing requires more commitment than traditional voting, an Iowan may not wish to spend their time rooting for a losing team.  A caucus-goer who has two favorite candidates may choose to support the one with a better chance of winning.  Of course, this assumes that caucus-goers can make sense of the past week’s poll numbers, which have been wildly inconsistent from one another.

If one poll is going to make a difference on caucus night, though, it is the Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted by Setzer & Co. in Des Moines.  The Iowa Poll is widely perceived as the most accurate pre-caucus poll, and the Register stakes its reputation on it every four years.  It appeared on Tuesday’s front page, and reporters will continue to cite it in the paper’s caucus coverage through Thursday.

According to the poll, Obama holds a surprising lead over Clinton and Edwards, 32-26-25.  And Huckabee leads Romney 32-26, with Sen. John McCain, Rep. Ron Paul, and former Sen. Fred Thompson all in contention for third place.

Significant questions exist about its methodology and its predictions for turnout (particularly on the Democratic side), but, if any one poll will make a difference in the outcome of the caucuses, it is the Register’s.

The Bottom Line

More than 1,700 precincts will host caucuses for both political parties Thursday night, and the dynamics in each room will be different. The factors listed above will not fully explain the results.

Still, the numbers do mean something.  And, a day away from the free-for-all, cut and dry numerical comparisons provide a comforting (if ephemeral) sense of order amid the madness.