CARROLL, Iowa — Iowa State University professor Kenneth Stone, a nationally regarded expert on Wal-Mart and the first academic to do serious studies on what is now the largest company in human history, says Carroll’s existing business community is strong enough to adapt to the arrival of a Wal-Mart Supercenter Wednesday morning.

“I think taking a positive attitude is the best course,” Stone said in a recent interview. “I have seen several towns take a very negative attitude. It’s usually prompted by the grocers getting together or somebody that’s really going to be hurt.”

Added Stone, “The bottom line is there are many, many successful towns that have a Wal-Mart Supercenter and all the hysteria that went on about how bad it was going to be just didn’t happen.”

Jack Schultz, author of the book “Boomtown USA” and an evangelist for rural America, said he was in Pryor, Okla., several months ago and talked to people there about the arrival of a Supercenter.

“The Chamber president told me that sales in their downtown have increased with more people coming to town,” Schultz said.

Here is Schultz in a recent post on his blog about rural America and small town development:

There is a life with Wal-Mart … I see it over and over as I travel around the country. Generally, small towns appreciate their Wal-Marts and the most complaints are from towns that don’t have one or that didn’t allow one to build in their town years ago and today regret having let the big fish swim to a neighboring town.

Douglas Burns of Iowa Independent and Iowa Political Alert discusses some of the economic and cultural issues in Carroll, Iowa. The above is filmed at the historic Carroll Depot, home of the Chamber of Commerce.

Editor’s Note: Jefferson is 30 miles east of Carroll. Burns misspeaks on this during the video.

The arrival of a Supercenter in a community is a many-sided story, with a myriad of effects on individuals and businesses, according to Charles Fishman, author of the recently released book “The Wal-Mart Effect.”

“Wal-Mart is either one of the boldest, most democratic creations in human history, a validation of free markets harnessing its enormous power on behalf of the needs of ordinary people, or it is an insatiable, insidious beast, exploiting the people it pretends to defend,” Fishman writes.

More and more communities are getting to sort out the question with Supercenters.

The primary feature of the Supercenter, what separates it from the existing Wal-Mart in Carroll’s central business district, is the presence of a grocery store.

Stone, who has spoken to thousands of groups about Wal-Mart, including local merchants in a session at the former Tony’s Restaurant in Carroll in the early 1990s, said Wal-Mart’s impact on the community occurred then with the construction of the original store in downtown Carroll.

“The major damage was done by the original Wal-Marts that came around,” he said.

Stone said Carroll has been fortunate to have the Wal-Mart in the central business district, not on the outskirts of the city.

“The main problem as I see it is I think if in fact the old Wal-Mart was instrumental in helping to keep trade downtown, this will hurt to some extent since it’s a little further away from downtown,” Stone said.

The impact of the Supercenter in Carroll obviously will be on grocery stores, Stone said.

Studies in Iowa, Mississippi and Texas reveal that that average reduction in sales for existing grocery stores in the first year of competition with a Supercenter will be around 10 percent.

But Stone said two of Carroll’s grocery stores have strong track records when it comes to competing against Wal-Mart.

“Usually it’s the smaller independents that are hurt worse than the bigger stores,” Stone said. “Frankly, I think Hy-Vee and Fareway have done a good job of competing against Wal-Mart. Those two chains in particular have figured out a way of beating Wal-Mart at their own game.”

Schultz, who lives in Effingham, Ill., said that city’s local supermarket saw sales fall by about 20 percent in the first year of competition with a Supercenter.

“The owner had to let some people go and regroup,” Schultz said. “But, he survived and his sales are higher today than prior to Wal-Mart coming to town. He now says that he gets people from a larger area than he got before.”

Stone said any efforts by city councils or other local leaders to block a Supercenter siting are counterproductive.

“Many towns have adopted ordinances and most of them are to the effect that no new retail store can be bigger than 100,000 square foot, nor can more than 10 percent of the floor space be dedicated to selling food – and of course that’s aimed directly at Wal Mart Supercenters,” Stone said.

Stone, author of the 1995 book “Competing with Retail Giants” and an ISU professor emeritus, said people in the Carroll area are going to find a Wal-Mart Supercenter one way or another.

“You’d be surprised how many people, probably even people living in Carroll, but certainly in the outlying area that really are enamored so much with Supercenters that if Carroll doesn’t have one they will drive to the nearest town that does have one,” he said.

Stone said that retail trade centers such as Carroll generally have Supercenters. Without one, the business community loses traffic to nearby Supercenter communities like Atlantic and Fort Dodge.

“As a last resort when they can go to the next city over, usually that just pulls trade from the city that kept them out is what it amounts to,” Stone said.

There’s also a matter of resources to consider for anyone itching for a legal fight with Wal-Mart.

Every seven days, 100 million Americans, or one third of the nation shops at a Wal-Mart, according to Fishman. In 2004 the company had a profit of $10.3 billion – enough to finance a legal team that can best the state departments of many nations.

“The other thing is Wal-Mart has an army of attorneys and lots of resources so if it came to the point if they thought they were being unfairly treated they could put together a lawsuit that would make the city wish it hadn’t gotten involved,” Stone said. “The statement I use is Wal-Mart can out-lawyer most cities and most corporations in the world to tell you the truth about it.”

They can also depress wages and benefits for working-class people in the regions where the stores are the largest employers for that demographic.

“The Wal-Mart economy is a place where the jobs are traps: low wages, miserly benefits, stultifying work, no respect, no future,” Fishman writes. “In the Wal-Mart economy we as consumers often buy too much just because it’s cheap. We are slaves to our impulse for a bargain.”

There are other global issues involving outsourcing of American jobs and pressure on suppliers in which Wal-Mart plays a pivotal role, Fishman writes.

Looking at the question through a purely local lense, Stone sees some positives associated with the arrival of a Supercenter in Carroll.

“You’ll probably draw people back to Carroll who live out in the fringes and are now going to Storm Lake or Fort Dodge or wherever,” he said.

Moreover, total retail sales and sales tax revenue will increase in the city.

“Wal-Mart will keep more people at home to shop,” he said. “More importantly, they bring people in from a bigger surrounding area so that’s a good news.”

He suggests following the lead of Pella and other cities and working with Wal-Mart on design and aesthetics and other such requests – something Wal-Mart expects to do in Carroll.

“If they do due-deligence with those things then there’s not really much excuse for keeping them out just because some merchants feel like it’s going to hurt their business,” Stone said. “In fact, Wal-Mart’s really made a lot of merchants a lot better than they had previously been just simply because they upped the competition to the point where you have to get better or you don’t make it.”

Added Stone, “Anybody that’s selling something different from what Wal-Mart’s selling is subject to benefit from the additional traffic that Wal-Mart will draw.”

Schultz agrees.

“I think that to try to fight new competition is fruitless and comes across badly,” Schultz said. “It looks like you are trying to maintain the status quo and `good old boys.’ I don’t think that it plays well with the general population.”

The best thing local merchants can do, says Stone, is walk through the recently opened Wal-Mart Supercenter in Atlantic and find angles where they can out-compete Wal-Mart.

“Most local stores offer a lot better services, a lot more personal service and that’s what they really need to capitalize on,” Stone said.

Schultz said he’s seen many businesses that have learned how to compete with a Supercenter.

“I’ve seen others that have given up,” he said. “The lessons that I’ve learned from those that succeeded is to try to do something different from what Wal-Mart is doing. You can add a higher level of service to what you are doing. You can sell different things that Wal-Mart. You can add other lines of business.”

Schultz draws an analogy between Supercenter opponents and those in past generations that sought to keep the Sears catalog out of smaller towns.

“The local merchants couldn’t compete with the prices in it, Schultz said. “My mother said that her mother was able to make clothes for all of the children (8 kids) because of the lower prices in the Sears catalog.”

Schultz said he’s heard of towns that passed laws to ban the Sears catalog and fired city employees who received the catalog.

“Today that sounds very quaint,” Schultz said. “I think that people will view those who fight Wal-Mart in much the same manner.”

Although large crowds were a cause of frustration for caucus organizers in all corners of the state, results streamed in steadily and without much incident.  The turnout, which was measured at about 239,000, was greater than almost anyone expected.

This year’s Democratic caucuses were unusual because of how difficult they were to predict — even at the very end.  Although Iowa Independent placed Obama at the top of its final power rankings last week and listed Clinton and Edwards in a virtual tie for second place, few other observers were willing to speculate about the final results.  In truth, it was anybody’s contest to win until the very end.

All six of the major Democratic presidential candidates spent significant time and money in Iowa over the past year.  Clinton, Edwards, and Obama each had hundreds of paid employees fanned out across the state to organize Democrats and left-leaning independent voters.  Sen. Chris Dodd, who finished at the bottom of the pack, took the extraordinary step of moving his family to Iowa for the final months of the campaign.  Sen. Joe Biden frequently mentioned in speeches how crucial Iowa was to his campaign strategy.  And Gov. Bill Richardson and Edwards both visited — and took questions in — all 99 of Iowa’s counties.

Although Edwards was outspent by his two chief rivals by millions of dollars in Iowa, the former North Carolina senator’s presidential hopes were largely tied to a successful finish here.  And Clinton, whose campaign assumed an air of inevitability for much of the campaign, showed her vulnerability.

Both Edwards and Clinton had downplayed expectations in recent days.  Former Gov. Tom Vilsack told a reporter that Clinton had “already succeeded” by making it into the top three here.  Edwards made an effort to showcase his organizations in other early primary states in an effort to demonstrate that his campaign would not end in Iowa no matter the results.

Late Thursday, after most precincts had reported their results, both Clinton and Edwards told gatherings of their supporters that they planned to continue their campaigns in New Hampshire despite the disappointing results.  Biden and Dodd both plan to drop out of the race.

Still, we pay attention to certain numbers because campaigns and some observers consider them important. We tallied up newspaper and state legislative endorsements, we read dozens of polls (always skeptically), we measured crowd sizes and reactions, and we kept a close eye on each candidate’s movement through the state.

With caucus night nearly upon us, now seems like a good time to check the scoreboard for a few of the numbers we have been watching over the course of the campaign.Newspaper Endorsements

Over the past month, newspapers across Iowa have issued their presidential endorsements.  Sen. Hillary Clinton holds claim to the “holy grail” of newspaper endorsements, that of The Des Moines Register, but Sen. Barack Obama’s total number of endorsements is double Clinton’s.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain holds a somewhat surprising lead in Iowa newspaper endorsements considering his reluctance to campaign here.  Gov. Mike Huckabee has nearly as many endorsements as McCain, but McCain’s Register endorsement gives him a wide lead in terms of circulation.

Although certain newspapers carry more influence than others, few believe that any will have much of an impact on caucus-goers’ first choices on caucus night.  Their primary impact may be on candidates’ second choice support, which is relevant to the Democratic caucuses during the realignment period.

Click here for the latest newspaper endorsement scoreboard.

State Legislative Endorsements

Campaigns have been quick to tout endorsements from state legislators, but no release ever claimed a direct connection between such endorsements and tangible results on caucus night.  Still, state legislators are often viewed as credible political experts by their supportive constituents.  At the very least, they have helped candidates build crowds for events in their districts.  And on caucus night, they may exert some influence over the loyal activists in the room.

On the Democratic side, all but 11 state legislators have issued endorsements.  Clinton holds a one-legislator lead over Obama, 21 to 20.  In a surprising third place, Sen. Joe Biden has garnered 16.  Click here for the latest Democratic endorsement scoreboard.

On the GOP side, nearly 50% of state legislators remain uncommitted.  Gov. Mitt Romney leads the field with endorsements.  McCain has  8, and Thompson has 6.  Click here for the latest GOP endorsement scoreboard.

Statewide Organization

Several numbers didn’t seem to fit into categories of their own, but rather fit into the general category of “organizational strength.”  For instance, Obama has 37 campaign offices across the state, while Clinton has 34 and former Sen. John Edwards has 25.  In terms of staff, most campaigns remain mum about their total numbers as best they can, but both Clinton and Obama reportedly have more than 300 paid employees on the ground.  And Edwards has 175 by his campaign’s own admission.

Another important statistic is 99.  It is the total number of counties in Iowa, and only Edwards and Gov. Bill Richardson have campaigned in them all.

And finally, there’s crowd size.  At Iowa Independent, we have used differences in crowd size as part of our justification for predicting an Obama victory in our recent Democratic Power Rankings.  We have noticed significantly larger crowds at Obama appearances than at Edwards or Clinton appearances in the same small towns, and the Obama campaign has made its own crowd size comparisons public in an effort to illustrate a trend.  Whether or not the trend holds true statewide, crowd size is not merely a measure of the enthusiasm a candidate generates.  It is most valuable as a demonstration of the ability of a candidate’s organization to convince caucus-goers to leave their homes to attend a political event — an ability that will be crucial Thursday night.

Polling

Although polling the Iowa caucuses is an incredibly difficult task, compounded this year by the caucus date’s proximity to the holiday season, it may have an impact on caucus-goers’ final decisions.  Because caucusing requires more commitment than traditional voting, an Iowan may not wish to spend their time rooting for a losing team.  A caucus-goer who has two favorite candidates may choose to support the one with a better chance of winning.  Of course, this assumes that caucus-goers can make sense of the past week’s poll numbers, which have been wildly inconsistent from one another.

If one poll is going to make a difference on caucus night, though, it is the Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted by Setzer & Co. in Des Moines.  The Iowa Poll is widely perceived as the most accurate pre-caucus poll, and the Register stakes its reputation on it every four years.  It appeared on Tuesday’s front page, and reporters will continue to cite it in the paper’s caucus coverage through Thursday.

According to the poll, Obama holds a surprising lead over Clinton and Edwards, 32-26-25.  And Huckabee leads Romney 32-26, with Sen. John McCain, Rep. Ron Paul, and former Sen. Fred Thompson all in contention for third place.

Significant questions exist about its methodology and its predictions for turnout (particularly on the Democratic side), but, if any one poll will make a difference in the outcome of the caucuses, it is the Register’s.

The Bottom Line

More than 1,700 precincts will host caucuses for both political parties Thursday night, and the dynamics in each room will be different. The factors listed above will not fully explain the results.

Still, the numbers do mean something.  And, a day away from the free-for-all, cut and dry numerical comparisons provide a comforting (if ephemeral) sense of order amid the madness.

Seen from the Iowa perspective, the CNN/YouTube debate in Florida offered Huckabee an extraordinary chance to build his recent momentum in the Hawkeye State. With Sunday-best wit, and more than a few God nods, Huckabee seized his moments and perhaps did enough this evening to move into a dead-heat (or even to the lead as one poll suggested) with long-standing front-runner here, Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

Simply put, Romney looked vulnerable tonight, seemingly scared of the next words that might emerge from his own mouth.

But the debate win may have come at a huge cost for Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who exposed a soft flank with his party on illegal immigration, an issue that stirs the most passions in conservative bastions of the state.  (They may love Jesus but my money’s on them hating the Mexicans in front of them in the Wal-Mart check-out lines more.)Huckabee acknowleged support for providing college scholarships to illegal immigrants who had been in primary and secondary education in his state.

“We’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did,” Huckabee said in defense of his position.

“Mike that’s not your money,” Romney said. “That’s the taxpayers’ money.”

This exchange came early in the debate and had the night ended there Romney would have had his commercial, a deadly spot to loop through local television stations on his new nemesis.

But Huckabee came back big. And Romney faltered, looking at one point as a waffler on, of all things, the Bible.

Of the GOP candidates Huckabee is the best with humor.

When asked what Jesus would do about the death penalty Huckabee joked, “Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office.” And later, when asked a question about his position on funding for space exploration, Huckabee said, “Maybe Hillary could be on the first rocket to Mars.”

A Baptist minister who is now running ads characterizing himself as a “Christian leader” Huckabee’s deeper answer on the Bible being the word of God revealed to man was a steroid-swatted political homerun.

Huckabee also benefited as a specator, perhaps even more so than when had the Florida floor. Romney took some blistering shots from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani who accused Romney of living in a “sanctuary mansion” where illegal inmmigrants were employed.
“You have a special immigration problem that nobody up here has,” Hizzoner said.

Later in the debate, Romney declined to describe waterboarding as torture and inspired the wrath of war-hero John McCain, as the Arizona senator and most famous POW in American history suggested that Romney’s position is one borne of the easy life of a stateside civilian.

“Life is not “24″ and Jack Bauer,” McCain said, referencing the popular Fox network show.

Without considering the current state of the race in Iowa, just looking at the debate in an organic sense, McCain demonstrated statesmanship and class that made his fellow travelers on the stage seem like small men, petty political staffers.

Does McCain now own a gun? No. But he damned well knows how to use one. No explanation necessary and Romney’s 2nd Amendment appeal — that his son left a couple of rifles at his house — seemed downright sissy.

McCain also effectively uses anti-war libertarian Ron Paul, a GOP congressman and presidential candidate, as a foil.

“We never lost a battle in Vietnam,” McCain said in response to a Paul point. “It was American public opinion that forced us to lose that conflict.”

The base loves fighting the 60s culture wars over and over and over …

McCain also noted that unlike President George W. Bush he wouldn’t need to rely heavily on a vice president for international affairs and military advice.

And if America had taken the advice of Democrats six months ago, the terrorists would be declaring victory today, McCain said.

Then you have Romney who couldn’t give a straight answer on gays in the military.

Of the other candidates Giuliani did nothing to hurt himself tonight. It was an unremarkable performance but one that leaves his campaign unshaken, and a surging Huckabee is just what the doctor ordered for Hizzoner as it is doubtful Huck has the stuff to compete in larger states where his front-porch-swinging ways and Scopes Monkey Trial-era view of science may make him long for those fat joke he used to hear.

Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., shows signs with strong answers on guns and abortion.

“I own a couple of guns but I’m not going to tell you what they are or where they are,” he said.

But he fades into the background too easily. He only got minutes of airtime in the hour-long “Law & Order” episodes in which he appeared and he doesn’t fight for the mike in these debates. This is no time for the Easy Eddie appproach to the American presidency — and even small government types get this.

Congressmen Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter are just wasting valuable time, none of which I am going to spend here now.