John Kerry gets offered a beer bong, September 2006. Photo: Des Moies Register

Olive Court was a popular campaign stop for presidential candidates on the caucus trail. Ron Paul spoke to a rowdy crowd last year, but the most famous event was in 2006, when John Kerry was offered a “beer bong.” Not long after that, Kerry opted out of the 2008 race, but that may have had more to do with his poor poll standing than with the embarrassing picture.

Up to 700 vehicles parked at Olive Court, a short walking or stumbling distance from Kinnick Stadium.

The Iowa City Press-Citizen reports that the property will be developed. Olive Court was one of the few unbuilt lots in University Heights, an independent city completely surrounded by Iowa City that is well known for its enthusiastic enforcement of speed limits.

If no candidate gets 35 percent, the party has to hold a convention to choose a nominee, and that’s a realistic possibility in one Iowa congressional race.The prospect of a convention was a hot topic in Democratic circles in early 2006, and Ed Fallon’s gubernatorial campaign made a big effort to elect delegates at precinct caucuses and county conventions. But the convention talk cooled after Patty Judge left the race to form a ticket with eventual nominee Chet Culver, who won a four-way race (don’t forget Sal Mohamed) with 39.1 percent.

Even in a three-way race, a convention is a possibility if the math breaks just right. The Republicans came within 1 percent of a statewide convention for governor in 2002, when the three candidates all bunched up in the 30 percentile. Doug Gross emerged as the nominee, with only 35.6 percent.

That same year, Republicans actually went to a convention for the 5th Congressional District. Four strong candidates competed in the brand-new, solidly Republican district, and they landed between 21 and 31 percent each. Steve King landed at the top of that heap, and then turned that lead into a convention win. The rest is history.

Who attends a convention depends on what level of office is involved. For legislative seats, it’s county central committee members, with votes weighted by the size and party strength of each precinct. County offices are nominated by a county convention, made up of the precinct delegates elected at the Jan. 3 caucuses. Congressional district and state conventions are made up of delegates elected at the March county conventions.

The likeliest prospect for a convention is the Democratic race in the 4th Congressional District, with four candidates seeking the nomination. Republicans have two major three-candidate races: the U.S. Senate race and the 2nd Congressional District.

Prospects also exist for conventions in local contests. The definition of percentage is less than straightforward in elections for more than one seat, such as at-large county supervisor contests. To determine the 35 percent threshold in these races, the Code of Iowa specifies a “percentage of votes” method. To get at this number add up all the votes cast for all the candidates, including write-ins. Then divide it by the number of seats available.

For example, look at the 2004 Democratic supervisor race in Johnson County. Eight candidates were running for three seats, and a total of 20,905 votes were cast. Divide that by three, and the baseline for calculating percentage is 6,969.

Johnson County Supervisors, 2004 Democratic Primary	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Terrence Neuzil	5,060	72.6%	54.4%	24.2%
Pat Harney	4,627	66.4%	49.7%	22.1%
Rod Sullivan	3,187	45.7%	34.3%	15.2%
Mike O’Donnell	3,060	43.9%	32.9%	14.6%
Rick Dvorak	1,998	28.7%	21.5%	9.6%
John Schneider	1,339	19.2%	14.4%	6.4%
Julie Gilmere	1,134	16.3%	12.2%	5.4%
James Knapp	446	6.4%	4.8%	2.1%
write in	54	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

This formula does not factor in the common dynamic of under-voting or “bullet voting,” in which supporters of one candidate don’t use all their votes in a vote for two or vote for three race. Instead, bullet voters vote only for their favorite candidate. You can’t use both, or all three, of your votes on that candidate, but you don’t have to use all of your votes. It’s a common campaign tactic, but one that’s usually done sotto voce so as not to alienate supporters of other candidates. If you want to crunch some math, add up the total votes cast for all candidates plus write-ins, then divide it by the number of voters. This will give you a “votes per candidate” number, illustrating how many people cast some sort of bullet vote. In our 2004 sample race, the 20,905 votes were cast by 9,305 voters, meaning the average voter only cast 2.25 votes for supervisor out of a possible three.

Calculating percentage of voters, by dividing the candidate’s results by the total number of voters, produces a lower percentage but provides a more reliable assessment of how many people supported a candidate. Another common, misleading method in a vote in a two-or-three race is to add up all the votes and divide each candidate’s vote by the grand total. This is often seen on local TV and produces seeming paradoxes like candidates winning with 17 percent.

Another seeming paradox happens in a race where four candidates are competing for three seats. It’s possible for a candidate to win support from a majority of voters, yet finish in last place, as in this 2001 Coralville contest. Over half of the voters supported Bream, yet he drew the least support and lost.

Coralville City Council, 2001	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Henry Herwig	744	80.0%	70.4%	26.7%
Dave Jacoby	732	78.7%	69.3%	26.2%
Tom Gill	682	73.3%	64.5%	24.5%
Bob Bream	614	66.0%	58.1%	22.0%
write in	17	1.8%	1.6%	0.6%

]]> http://iowaindependent.com/2383/primaries-by-the-percentages/feed 0 http://iowaindependent.com/1705/edwards-rally-iowans-still-shopping-around http://iowaindependent.com/1705/edwards-rally-iowans-still-shopping-around#comments Sun, 23 Dec 2007 16:20:32 +0000 T.M. Lindsey http://iowaindependent.com/1705/edwards-rally-iowans-still-shopping-around With only 13 shopping days left until the Iowa Caucuses, a number of voters were out shopping for the candidate they want to caucus for Jan. 3. This was the case for some of the attendees at former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ campaign rally at the Holiday Inn Convention Center in Coralville Saturday.

Kathleen Hession, an Iowa City resident, who recently returned from London where she had just completed a semester abroad, said she just started looking for a candidate. “I’m still undecided, and I have a lot of catching up to do,” Hession told the Iowa Independent after the rally. “One thing I do know is that I’m definitely leaning Democrat. I’m decidedly Democratic.”

Meanwhile, some of the attendees were out window shopping, including Brett Johnson, a recent UI graduate in International Affairs. “I’m supporting Chris Dodd, because I think he has the best platform on foreign policy,” Johnson told the Iowa Independent after the rally. “I came to see Edwards out of curiosity. I’m checking out the big three Democratic candidates (Obama, Edwards, Hillary) to see which one I’ll caucus for, just in case Dodd isn’t viable in my precinct. Edwards is the first one of the big three I’ve had a chance to catch so far.”

Speaking of Edwards, he has clearly shifted gears into rally mode for the final push of the campaign in Iowa. Over 150 people crammed into a long, narrow conference room to hear Edwards speak. Due to inclement weather, Edwards was running late, which only exacerbated the claustrophobic conditions.Thirty minutes late, Edwards took the stage and preached his populist agenda from the stage’s makeshift pulpit, vowing to stand up and take on the lobbyists and fight for people who are struggling to live the American Dream. “Corporate greed is destroying the middle class, robbing us of jobs, and robbing your children of their future,” Edwards said.

Edwards called upon the audience to take responsibility and fight the powers of corporate greed. “Are we going to stand quietly by and let this happen, or are we going to do something about this?” Edwards asked. “The easiest thing to do is to turn your head and say there is nothing we can do about this. If you’re willing to do that, you better be willing to look your children in the eye and tell them you’re going to leave this mess for them.”

Edwards reminded people that the fight against corporate greed was not going to be easy. “We have an epic fight on our hands. I do not believe you can sit at a table with drug companies and health insurance lobbyists, take their money and make a deal with them,” Edwards argued. “If that worked, we would have had universal health care years ago. They’re not going to voluntarily give their power away. The only way they give their power away is if we take their power away from them.”

Towards the end of his speech, Edwards slipped into full populist mode, rallying the crowd to rise up and take a stand for America. “Every time we speak up for the millions of forgotten people living in the darkness, America rises. Every time we speak up for 47 million people who don’t have health care, every time we speak up and stand up for the 37 million people living in poverty, every time we stand up for the 200,000 homeless veterans who go to sleep every night under bridges, every time we do that, America rises!”

“On a cold night Jan. 3, there is going to be a rising right here in Iowa. You’re going to rise up,” Edwards shouted over the audience’s escalating applause. “You’re going to say enough is enough. We’re going to take back this Democracy, and there is going to be a wave of change right here in Iowa that sweeps across this country. We’re going to build an America that we can believe in, so you can be absolutely certain when you look your children in the eye and tell them we left America better off than we found it.”

Both Johnson and Hession were impressed with Edwards’ speaking skills and ability to get the crowd fired up. “I realized today’s event was more of a rallying cry,” said Johnson. “So I didn’t get a real sense of his specific stances on issues. I have to admit, he did a great job of getting the crowd revved up.”

“I was impressed with Edwards’ ability to rally the crowd with his speaking skills,” Hession said. “I’m not sure whether I’ll support Edwards on caucus night, but it was great to see him getting people excited, and hopefully this will get them to the caucuses. That’s what’s really important.”

Although the Republican caucuses are somewhat simpler (and therefore easier to participate in) than the Democratic version, organization is still the single most important factor in a candidate’s success.  Below, we rank the GOP candidates based on our sense of the strengths of their organizations, the depth of their support, the likelihood that their supporters will caucus, and other intangible factors that we consider important for caucus success.  And again, we must emphasize that although we speak with activists and rank-and-file caucus-goers as we compile these lists, they are based, at their core, on gut instincts and guesses.  Our hope is that as our readers watch the candidates fluctuate in the polls, they will keep these rankings in mind as one additional point of reference, for what they are worth.If the GOP caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:

1. Mitt Romney — Romney has put by far the most resources into building an organization in Iowa, and so far it has paid off.  His large staff and well-connected network of supporters keep him on top of what is otherwise a very volatile field.  Although other candidates are showing signs of strength, Romney will not give up the top spot without a big fight.
2. Mike Huckabee — Huckabee appears to be the flavor of the month.  Although he failed to capitalize on his surprise 2nd place finish at the Ames Straw Poll to the degree many expected he would and turned in lackluster third quarter fund raising numbers, the winds seemed to shift a few weeks ago, and Huckabee started getting buzz.  Despite high profile evangelical endorsements going to other candidates, one gets the sense that rank-and-file social conservatives in Iowa are breaking his way.  And although his Iowa staff is tiny in comparison to Romney’s, it is led by talented heavy-hitters at the top.
3. Rudy Giuliani — Reports of Giuliani’s reasonably high poll numbers in Iowa are generally followed by statements about what might happen “when Iowa Republicans find out about the real Giuliani.”  So far, either most GOP caucus-goers have not found out about the former mayor’s personal history, or fewer than expected are turned off by it.  Although one might expect Giuliani to slip farther down the list by January 3, we expect he would finish third if the caucuses were held tonight.
4. Ron Paul — Paul’s support comes from the least likely corners of Iowa, making it very difficult to measure with “likely voter” polls.  Cynics expect his unlikely coalition to stay home on caucus night, and they might; but if the depth of a candidate’s support is one measure of his likely success in the caucuses, Paul has the rest of the field beat.  While Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson, and Sen. John McCain appear to swap supporters every few weeks, Paul’s fans remain squarely in his corner.  And there is the oft-ignored fact that polls show that a majority of likely GOP caucus-goers favor withdrawal from Iraq within six months, which many analysts are hard-pressed to explain.
5. Fred Thompson — Before Huckabee became the flavor of the month, there was Thompson, who entered the presidential race late amid significant fanfare.  But entering late makes building an organization difficult, and so far Thompson does not seem to have spent enough time relationship-building with activists to have put an infrastructure in place.  His national endorsement from Right to Life showed a glimmer of promise for his Iowa operation, but hopes were dashed when Iowa Right to Life, which could have given the former senator the organizational jump he needed to catch up to his opponents, decided to remain neutral.
6. John McCain — Having failed to captivate Iowa’s social conservatives with McCain version 2.0, the Arizona senator has reverted back to the straight-talking McCain 1.0 — the candidate who ended up skipping Iowa entirely in 2000.  What remains of his organization here appears to be spread too thin, and his willingness to speak his mind about ethanol and immigration, among other subjects, has not won him many friends.
7. Tom Tancredo — Tancredo has very small pockets of deep support across the state, but, as a self-admitted one-issue candidate, he does not even seem interested in broadening his appeal.  While his ‘explosive’ new TV ad may have been a bold enough strategy to land him on cable news for a few days, we wonder how much money he actually put behind the buy, because we have spoken to very few GOP caucus-goers who have seen it.
8. Duncan Hunter — Hunter has no real organization in place here, and he has spent very little time campaigning to build one.
9. John Cox — Free potato chips may win Cox a few votes, but he has no institutional support and very little name recognition.

A hat tip to leading civil liberty/law site Talk Left.