~ Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey

~ Iowa Rep.Renee Schulte, R-Cedar Rapids

~ Iowa Journalist Chuck Offenburger

~ Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson

~ U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.

~ Former Iowa Sen. Jeff Angelo, R-Creston

Opponents of the decision have vowed to make it the cornerstone of a 2010 campaign they hope will result in Republicans reclaiming control in Des Moines. But most observers agree that while marriage may be a factor, control of Terrace Hill and the statehouse will largely be decided by one thing: the economy.

“The marriage ruling is going to have a much smaller impact than it normally would because of where our economy is right now,” said Christopher Larimer, professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa. “If the state budget is a mess and the economy isn’t doing well, that’s going to be what drives people in 2010. If the economy is doing well, I think that will make things easier for the Democrats.”

There is little doubt that for some, mainly social conservatives, the court’s ruling will be a the big issue of next year’s election, said Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and a former member of the Johnson County Republican Central Committee.

“But the economy affects everybody. Maybe some folks aren’t as interested in the social issues, but when the state is going through tough economic times across the board, from the private sector to the public sector, that affects people more broadly,” Hagle said. “That’s going to be the big issue, unless we get some sort of dramatic turn around in the next 15 months.”

Tim Albrecht has a long career in Iowa Republican politics, serving as communications director for Rep. Christopher Rants during his tenure as House speaker and currently running a conservative news aggregator, TheBeanWalker.com. He said that while it’s true that the marriage issue will fall second to the economy for most voters, the enthusiasm it creates in the GOP base is where the true impact will be felt.

“This will mobilize volunteers,” he said. “It will get them on the phones and knocking on doors. They will provide a lot of the shoe leather. This is where everything comes together. While the economy is first on everybody’s minds, if you don’t have a campaign to turn out that vote, it won’t matter.”

Republicans are enthusiastic about their political fortunes for the first time in a long while, Albrecht said, after a legislative session that saw the GOP successfully fend off pieces of the Democrats’ economic plan, like labor legislation and ending federal deductibility.

“Maybe a voter is upset with the Democrats because of their tax plan,” he said. “Republicans have to get that person out to vote, and the social conservatives of the party are the ones who will be providing the volunteer power to do that.”

How the GOP handles the issue is also important, Hagle said. Polling shows a majority of Iowans oppose same-sex marriage but would support civil unions. If the Republicans seem like they are pushing a message of discrimination, there could be a big voter backlash.

“It’s a fine line between characterizing it as pro-traditional marriage and pro-discrimination,” Hagle said. “I think a lot of people in the middle are kind of live and let live.”

Former GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Gross told The Associated Press that too much focus on same-sex marriage could spell doom for his party’s chances next year.

“For Republicans to win, they need to have a broad agenda,” Gross said. “That issue is not a negative one for Republicans, but if Republicans let this be the only thing they talk about, they won’t be successful in 2010.”

The races that will be most affected by the court’s ruling will be Republican primaries, said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University. Because primaries are dominated by a party’s base, and because social conservatives are the group most upset with the ruling, the issue could ultimately decide Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial nominee.

“The single most passionate group of supporters in the Republican Party are social and religious conservatives,” Goldford said. “For them, politics is not about pragmatics, it’s about what is right and what is moral. That will make life much more difficult for moderates to get elected.”

Albrecht said the outcome of 2010 would also come down to whether his party can overcome years of being outmaneuvered by the Democrats.

“It’s going to take integrated campaigns and efforts unlike social conservatives and Republicans have ever seen before,” he said. “We need to get out of the 1950s in regards to how we run our campaigns.”

At his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, Silver examined trends in the 30 states that have voted on same-sex marriage bans and found they are becoming more difficult to pass every year.

Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we’d project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year. …

… So what does this mean for Iowa? The state has roughly average levels of religiosity, including a fair number of white evangelicals, and the model predicts that if Iowans voted on a marriage ban today, it would pass with 56.0 percent of the vote. By 2012, however, the model projects a toss-up: 50.4 percent of Iowans voting to approve the ban, and 49.6 percent opposed. In 2013 and all subsequent years, the model thinks the marriage ban would fail.

The earliest Iowans would get a chance to vote on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage would be late 2011.

Silver’s logic matches well with a recent poll conducted by the University of Iowa which found 60 percent of Iowans under age 30 support same-sex marriage, and three-fourths of Iowans under 30 favor some formal recognition of same-sex relationships. David Redlawsk, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa who oversaw the poll, said the figures show passion for banning same-sex marriage diminishing over time.

Silver predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it.

Also on the legislature’s plate is Gov. Chet Culver’s $750 million bonding plan to pay for flood repairs and work on Iowa’s aging infrastructure. On top of it all, opponents of same-sex marriage have said they will push for legislative action on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage before the session is over.

Four pieces of legislation backed by labor unions are also still on the table, although their future appears bleak.

The session isn’t officially scheduled to end until May 1, when lawmakers’ daily expense payments run out. But Democrats set a goal of ending the session early in order to save money and help with the state’ budget shortfall.

The first hurdle for Democrats will come Tuesday, when debate is scheduled for their controversial tax reform bill that includes ending federal deductibility. A public hearing on the plan last week became so heated House Speaker Pat Murphy asked state troopers to clear the public from the gallery.

“If Gov. Culver does not step up and be very definitive on this and take action before the end of this general assembly, this will be a big issue when he runs in 2010,” King said.

When prompted by a question, King said if the issue isn’t properly handled, “it does make it more likely I will run.”

On several occasions King has said he is interested in running for governor but has made no final decision.

The four-term member of Congress said he wants the legislature to immediately change the state’s marriage laws to require Iowa residency in order to avoid same-sex couples from around the country descending on Iowa to get married. Immediately after the Court’s decision to overturn Iowa’s ban on same-sex marriage was made public, King said the state could easily become a “gay marriage Mecca,” if the change isn’t made.

In January, Culver said he would seek a quick response in the legislature if the Iowa Supreme Court rules that same-sex couples have a right to marry. Conservatives are calling on the governor to live up to his previous statements.

Culver responded to the Court’s decision by issuing a statement Friday saying he will “thoroughly review this decision” before “reacting to what it means for Iowa.”

But a group of legislators told The Des Moines Register that a special session is doubtful, with state Sen. Bill Dotzler, a Waterloo Democrat saying that it’s “pretty dangerous” to have a special session close to the November elections because the effort could turn overly political.

State Rep. Tami Wiencek, a Republican from Waterloo, was also skeptical that a special session would take place this year.

She noted that key questions remain, such as the match Iowa governments will be expected to contribute in some programs to qualify for federal assistance.

“If I was playing Psychic Tami, I would say no,” Wiencek said.

With the federal government going into recess before debating a proposed $10.1 billion in federal aid, state lawmakers are left wondering when federal money will come and how much the state will have to kick in. Culver asked the feds to pick up 90 percent of the tab for recovery and rebuilding efforts, but the exact total will not be known until Congress comes back into session and passes a relief spending bill.

If that’s granted, it would make a $112 million difference to the state.

“That means the Legislature and I don’t have to worry about $112 million in costs,” said Culver. “Those types of things ultimately will have a huge impact on ultimately whether or not we have a special session.”

Culver said he expects to learn the outcome of his requests “in the next couple of weeks” and that will weigh heavily on whether he summons lawmakers into session.

In honor of Roggow’s service and sacrifice, Gov. Chet Culver has ordered all flags in the state to be flown at half staff on Friday, Dec. 14. Services, beginning at 11 a.m., will be held at the Grace Lutheran Church in Le Mars. Surviving members of Roggow’s family will be presented with a POW bracelet, a bronze plaque, a grave marker, the American flag and a videotape of his memorial service.

“It finally gets to the point where all questions to Norman’s disappearance have been answered and our family is grateful to now have closure as he finally returns home,” Myron Pingel of Cherokee, a second cousin of Roggow’s, told The Sioux City Journal.

The POW/Missing Personnel Office in the Department of Defense in Washington, D.C., announced Oct. 24 that the remains of five servicemen, including Roggow, had been accounted for and would be returned to their families for burial with full military honors.Roggow was one of five Navy personnel whose E-1B Tracer plane was reported missing Oct. 8, 1967, while returning to the aircraft carrier USS Oriskany. Records indicate that radar contact with the aircraft was lost approximately ten miles northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam, and adverse weather conditions hampered immediate search efforts.

Three days later, the plane wreckage was located by a search helicopter on the face of a steep mountain in Da Nang Province but the challenging terrain and hostile forces in the area prevented a ground recovery.

Roggow was a member of the Brook Country School class of 1959, the last class to graduate from the rural school located north of Aurelia. He is survived by three sisters, Connie Fraser, Marva Hanson and Diane Roggow, and a brother, Curtis Roggow.

On the Republican side, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 36.2%, head and shoulders above Rudy Giuliani’s 13.1%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s 12.8%, former Sen. Fred Thompson’s 11.4%, and Sen. John McCain’s 6%.

The Hawkeye Poll’s methodology has been the subject of some controversy, but in an interview with Iowa Independent, Redlawsk defended himself against his critics.  New American Research Group polls from the beginning of the week show somewhat different results, but the candidate rankings in the two polls vary only slightly.  Consensus remains that Romney is the Iowa Republican frontrunner, and any of the top three Democrats could win the Democratic caucuses.

Another poll, released by the National Wildlife Federation, showed that 69% of Iowa hunters and fishermen believe global warming is occurring.  66% of that group also believe that conservation is at least as important as gun rights.

Tuesday night’s debate between the Democratic candidates in Philadelphia, PA, made for a relatively quiet week on the Democratic side in Iowa.  Obama visited Cedar Rapids Monday for a speech on Social Security and an appearance in front of young people for a forum sponsored by MTV News and MySpace.  In Washington, DC, Wednesday, Clinton announced her endorsement from AFSCME, a union often touted as influential in the Iowa Caucuses.  Thursday, Edwards announced his first major Iowa television ad buy of the 2008 campaign.  Obama and Clinton had announced new TV ads Sunday and Monday, respectively.  Most of the Democratic field did not return to Iowa until the end of the week.

On the Republican side, things quieted down after last week’s Republican Party fundraising dinner, where Huckabee received most of the buzz.  Romney was the only major candidate to appear in Iowa later in the week.  In Marshalltown, he was videotaped telling a crowd that “you probably don’t have a lot of immigrants legally” in Iowa.

Next week promises to be exciting, as the last major cattle-call of Democratic candidates in Iowa, the annual Jefferson Jackson fundraising dinner, happens over the weekend.  In the lead-up to the event, candidates will struggle to build crowds and show strength as the national press corps flies back into town.

It was also rumored that Clinton would receive the endorsement of AFSCME, which is a significant force in the Iowa Caucuses.

Later in the week, former Sen. John Edwards completed his visits to all of Iowa’s 99 counties — a feat he had also accomplished leading up to the 2004 Iowa Caucuses.  Edwards is the first candidate to have reached this milestone this year, and he noted that “Not only have I visited all 99 counties, I’ve been taking questions from Iowans in all 99 counties.”  This after releasing his Hunting and Fishing Bill of Rights and Responsibilities on Wednesday.

In other Democratic news, we now know the date of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.  Democrats will hold their precinct meetings on January 3, the same day as the Republicans.  Although the new date will change the dynamics of the caucuses somewhat, Iowa will likely remain the most influential primary state in the Democratic nominating contest.

The Republican primary calendar also made news last week, when the Republican National Committee voted to sanction New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan, and Wyoming for hosting binding primary contests before February 5.  (Iowa and Nevada, whose Republican caucuses are not binding on delegate selection, will not receive penalties.)

Thursday evening, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. John McCain were the only two candidates to appear at an AARP-sponsored forum on health care (the rest of the Republican candidates declined invitations to attend).  Rep. Ron Paul spent the end of the week campaigning in Iowa, including a stop in Ames.

Although former Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Tom Tancredo also spent time around Iowa during the week, much of the buzz surrounded Huckabee, whose band played a show at the famous Surf Ballroom, the venue where Buddy Holly played his last concert before his plane went down in Iowa, Friday night.

Saturday, most of the Republican field attended the Iowa GOP’s annual Ronald Reagan dinner in Des Moines.  Iowa Independent’s Jay Wagner reported that “Fred Thompson may have gotten more laughs during his speech, but surging Mike Huckabee received the only genuine standing ovation of the night.”  Tancredo, Huckabee, Paul, former Sen. Fred Thompson, Rep. Duncan Hunter, John Cox, and Romney’s wife Ann spoke at the dinner, while Romney himself, Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain campaigned outside the state.

The Obama crew marches to the Harkin Steak Fry, led by the drum corps the Isiserettes.

Iowa Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge welcomes the crowd early in the program at the steak fry.

The catering crew worked over hot grills preparing the meals for over 12,000.

Iowa vocal talent Effie Burt passionately sings the Star Spangled Banner.

Ruth and Tom Harkin say hello to the record crowd at the Harkin Steak Fry.

Barack Obama takes to the mic to deliver the first speech of the six special guests.

Hillary Clinton and Ruth Harkin have a chat up on the stage.

Bill Richardson gives the second presidential candidate speech at the steak fry.