Though the majority of the Democratic Party backs Sen. Barack Obama, an undercurrent of staunch and loyal [Sen. Hillary] Clinton supporters say they’ll fight all the way to the national convention, which begins in Denver in 18 days, to put her name on the ballot.

They are working to garner the 300 signatures from national delegates to complete DNC rule requirements to put Clinton’s name back on the convention ballot. Clinton, however, would have to agree to this before her name is placed on the ballot.

“I will come on board the unity train with a first class ticket if, before doing so, I get the opportunity to vote for my candidate,” said Daniel Kagan, a property developer and lawyer from Arapahoe County. “On Aug. 28, when Obama accepts the nomination, I will be there cheering along with the rest of them, but only if I have had the chance to vote first.”

Not everybody is as willing to accept Obama’s nomination as Mr. Kagan from Araphoe County, Colo. The Iowa Independent reported in June that several leaders of the Iowa College Democrats who supported Clinton in the nomination fight publicly endorsed Republican Sen. John McCain and called on other Clinton supporters to do the same.

The Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut reported this morning that Obama and Clinton advisers are working to find a way to appease her supporters and find roles for her and her husband.

The Obama and Clinton camps said this week that they agree on a central point: They would like to avoid an embarrassing display of discord from Clinton’s most ardent backers when the national convention begins in just over two weeks.

On top of it all, MSNBC is reporting this morning that former President Bill Clinton will get a prime-time speaking slot at the Democratic Convention. He will speak Aug. 27 before the address by the party’s vice-presidential nominee.

If no candidate gets 35 percent, the party has to hold a convention to choose a nominee, and that’s a realistic possibility in one Iowa congressional race.The prospect of a convention was a hot topic in Democratic circles in early 2006, and Ed Fallon’s gubernatorial campaign made a big effort to elect delegates at precinct caucuses and county conventions. But the convention talk cooled after Patty Judge left the race to form a ticket with eventual nominee Chet Culver, who won a four-way race (don’t forget Sal Mohamed) with 39.1 percent.

Even in a three-way race, a convention is a possibility if the math breaks just right. The Republicans came within 1 percent of a statewide convention for governor in 2002, when the three candidates all bunched up in the 30 percentile. Doug Gross emerged as the nominee, with only 35.6 percent.

That same year, Republicans actually went to a convention for the 5th Congressional District. Four strong candidates competed in the brand-new, solidly Republican district, and they landed between 21 and 31 percent each. Steve King landed at the top of that heap, and then turned that lead into a convention win. The rest is history.

Who attends a convention depends on what level of office is involved. For legislative seats, it’s county central committee members, with votes weighted by the size and party strength of each precinct. County offices are nominated by a county convention, made up of the precinct delegates elected at the Jan. 3 caucuses. Congressional district and state conventions are made up of delegates elected at the March county conventions.

The likeliest prospect for a convention is the Democratic race in the 4th Congressional District, with four candidates seeking the nomination. Republicans have two major three-candidate races: the U.S. Senate race and the 2nd Congressional District.

Prospects also exist for conventions in local contests. The definition of percentage is less than straightforward in elections for more than one seat, such as at-large county supervisor contests. To determine the 35 percent threshold in these races, the Code of Iowa specifies a “percentage of votes” method. To get at this number add up all the votes cast for all the candidates, including write-ins. Then divide it by the number of seats available.

For example, look at the 2004 Democratic supervisor race in Johnson County. Eight candidates were running for three seats, and a total of 20,905 votes were cast. Divide that by three, and the baseline for calculating percentage is 6,969.

Johnson County Supervisors, 2004 Democratic Primary	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Terrence Neuzil	5,060	72.6%	54.4%	24.2%
Pat Harney	4,627	66.4%	49.7%	22.1%
Rod Sullivan	3,187	45.7%	34.3%	15.2%
Mike O’Donnell	3,060	43.9%	32.9%	14.6%
Rick Dvorak	1,998	28.7%	21.5%	9.6%
John Schneider	1,339	19.2%	14.4%	6.4%
Julie Gilmere	1,134	16.3%	12.2%	5.4%
James Knapp	446	6.4%	4.8%	2.1%
write in	54	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

This formula does not factor in the common dynamic of under-voting or “bullet voting,” in which supporters of one candidate don’t use all their votes in a vote for two or vote for three race. Instead, bullet voters vote only for their favorite candidate. You can’t use both, or all three, of your votes on that candidate, but you don’t have to use all of your votes. It’s a common campaign tactic, but one that’s usually done sotto voce so as not to alienate supporters of other candidates. If you want to crunch some math, add up the total votes cast for all candidates plus write-ins, then divide it by the number of voters. This will give you a “votes per candidate” number, illustrating how many people cast some sort of bullet vote. In our 2004 sample race, the 20,905 votes were cast by 9,305 voters, meaning the average voter only cast 2.25 votes for supervisor out of a possible three.

Calculating percentage of voters, by dividing the candidate’s results by the total number of voters, produces a lower percentage but provides a more reliable assessment of how many people supported a candidate. Another common, misleading method in a vote in a two-or-three race is to add up all the votes and divide each candidate’s vote by the grand total. This is often seen on local TV and produces seeming paradoxes like candidates winning with 17 percent.

Another seeming paradox happens in a race where four candidates are competing for three seats. It’s possible for a candidate to win support from a majority of voters, yet finish in last place, as in this 2001 Coralville contest. Over half of the voters supported Bream, yet he drew the least support and lost.

Coralville City Council, 2001	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Henry Herwig	744	80.0%	70.4%	26.7%
Dave Jacoby	732	78.7%	69.3%	26.2%
Tom Gill	682	73.3%	64.5%	24.5%
Bob Bream	614	66.0%	58.1%	22.0%
write in	17	1.8%	1.6%	0.6%

]]> http://iowaindependent.com/2383/primaries-by-the-percentages/feed 0 http://iowaindependent.com/1917/friends-and-family-brave-weather-to-honor-soldiers-at-send-off-ceremony http://iowaindependent.com/1917/friends-and-family-brave-weather-to-honor-soldiers-at-send-off-ceremony#comments Thu, 07 Feb 2008 14:35:29 +0000 T.M. Lindsey http://iowaindependent.com/1917/friends-and-family-brave-weather-to-honor-soldiers-at-send-off-ceremony Due to heavy snowfall and hazardous driving conditions, all schools in the Iowa City area shut down Wednesday. This, however, did not deter Regina Catholic School from opening its doors to host the Iowa National Guard’s 109th Medical Battalion’s send-off ceremony.

109th Medical Battalion stands at attention to begin the ceremony

Hundreds of friends and family members braved the weather and the partially plowed roads and parking lot to say goodbye and wish the civilian soldiers well on their deployment to Egypt. However, not everyone was fortunate enough to conquer the elements left in the snowstorm’s wake. Spc. Robert Otto was held up in traffic on Interstate 80 and missed the entire ceremony after a 90-minute commute from Cedar Rapids to Iowa City. A number of accidents and an earlier closing of the interstate had reduced traffic to a slow crawl.

Fortunately, Otto made it in time to join his family after the ceremony. Otto, a unit-supply specialist, joined the military during his senior year in high school. “I joined the 109th right after they came back from Iraq in 2004. I joined to serve my country and to receive the college benefits,” Otto said. “And right now, I’m ready to go.”

Spc. Otto (center) takes a moment to pose with his family: Exie (mother), Joseph (brother), and Terry (father)

Otto’s mother, on the other hand, was less eager for him to go, but she understood why he wanted to go. “I have the typical mother anxieties,” Exie Tobin said. “Although, better Egypt than Iraq.”

The 109th was joined by two other units, the 209th Area Support Medical Company and 67th Troop Command, as part of the Multinational Force and Observers peacekeeping mission, which will deploy to the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt after a brief mobilization at Fort Lewis, Wash., where they will be stationed for two to three months before final deployment.

The members of the 109th Medical Battalion will command and control three companies providing logistical, medical, aviation and explosive ordinance removal support to all 11 Multinational Force & Observers contingents. The mission of the MFO is to supervise the implementation of the security provisions of the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty of Peace and employ best efforts to prevent any violation of its terms.

The 109th was last activated on Jan. 24, 2003, and served 14 months before returning in March 2004.

In addition to friends and family, local dignitaries attended the ceremony, including Iowa City Mayor Regina Bailey and newly elected Iowa City council member Mike Wright. Neither Gov. Chet Culver nor any of Iowa’s congressional delegation were in attendance, but Lt. Col. Greg Hapgood read a letter from Sen. Chuck Grassley, and 2nd District Rep. Dave Loebsack’s aide, David Lesch, read a letter on his behalf.

Not quite. Try Iowa State Sen. Joe Seng of Davenport, whose one-man keyboard band added a homespun flavor to the Biden rally. Moreover, Seng is one of the dozen Iowa legislators who have endorsed Sen. Joe Biden for president.

Seng’s popping keyboard sound added to his full array of musical selections, ranging from polka dance music to the ever-popular football, tailgating favorite, “In Heaven There is No Beer.” (Note: Inspired, the he Dodd rally next door was offering “Free Beer.”)

Playing on the “Ears of Experience” pun, the Biden campaign chose the traditional corn colors, green and yellow, to excenuate their rally with towering, hand-made signs that lit the night up.

The Biden Campaign weathered a surge of Obama supporters, who marched en masse up 5th Ave. Biden supporters fired back with Joe-Biden chants. (below).

Seng was joined by fellow legislator House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Des Moines (below), who mingled with the home-town crowd and explained to folks why he endorsed Biden for president.

The latest Biden endorsement among Iowa legislators, Sen. Herman C. Quirmback of Ames, took the stage to impart why he’s endorsing Biden for president; one word: Iraq. Quirmback, an Associate Professor of Economics at Iowa State University, says Biden is the most knowledgeable, experienced and courageous person running for president and is the best possibility America has for getting out of Iraq responsibly.

Fellow Rep. Lisa Heddens of Ames (below) followed Quirmback and echoed his reasoning as to why she endorsed Biden over the summer. First, however, Heddens — as if still in a state of shock — had to acknowledge the hometown victory of the Iowa State Cyclones football team. “We actually won today,” Heddens said.

Using a trick taught to her by her civics teacher, Heddens recited all of the U.S. presidents in chronological order, beginning with Washington and ending with “JOE BIDEN!”

On Oct. 3, 1957, Judge Clayton W. Horn found Ferlinghetti not guilty, ruling that Howl and Other Poems was not obscene but contained “redeeming social importance” and was therefore protected by the First Amendment. “The authors of the First Amendment knew that novel and unconventional ideas might disturb the complacent, but they chose to encourage a freedom which they believed essential if vigorous enlightenment was ever to triumph over slothful ignorance,” Horn wrote his judicial opinion.

In 1955, Ginsberg began writing the nearly 3,000-word poem that helped define the Beat Generation. The poem was inspired by Fyodor Dostoevsky’s “Notes from the Underground,” which captures the rambling memoirs of a bitter, isolated, nameless narrator who rants from his basement window about all the ills infecting Russian society. Ginsberg also attributes Walt Whitman for the free-verse style of the poem and his sympathy for Carl Solomon, whom he met while visiting his mother at a mental institute, for the emotional drive behind the poem.

Read commentary and tributary poem below the fold.
(Commentary) Fifty years later, Ginsberg’s “Howl” still resonates in America, obscene words and all, as Americans grow increasingly frustrated with the political paralysis surrounding them. The citizens howl against the daily injustices in America, but their words fail to resonate in D.C., merely reverberating within the hollow, empty chambers on Capital Hill. The best way to capture the spirit of “Howl,” while simultaneously paying homage to Ginsberg’s timeless words, is by way of a contemporary adaptation of the poem itself.

Howlin’ in the Wind (Abridged)

For Allen Ginsberg: The Beat Goes On