A Labor Day Look at the Presidential Race

Labor Day is traditionally seen as the start of campaign season, but in the 2008 presidential race, the campaign is well under way on both sides.  And caucus night approaches at double speed, as the days move forward on the calendar and as a yet-uncertain caucus date moves backward.

As Iowa pauses for a three-day weekend to wrap up the summer, it seems like a good time for Iowa Independent to wrap up the campaign so far.

Iowa Democrats are in an upbeat mood since their 2006 statewide wins and seem frustrated only by the high quality of the field.  The top-tier candidates – New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards — are tightly bunched at the top of polls.

After leaking and then denying a Screw Iowa strategy memo, the Hillary Clinton campaign has embraced the caucuses, recently launching its first TV ads.  While the candidate often says, “I’m not running to be the first woman president, I’m running because I feel I’m the best qualified,” there’s an undercurrent of identity politics in things like music choices and lists of 100 Women Leaders for Hillary.

The Clinton campaign has also managed to link itself to the Clinton 42 legacy while at the same time asserting an identity for the possible Clinton 44.  Signs and logos all say “Hillary” (no Clinton and certainly no Rodham), yet any speech references to health care invariably include the phrase “I’ve got the scars to show” for her 1993-1994 role in health care reform.  And the highlight so far for the Hillary Clinton campaign was the Fourth of July week tour with her husband, the former president. The two are visiting the state again this weekend.

The only other living former Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, had good words this week for John Edwards.  Edwards has evolved his “Two Americas” theme into an energetic, populist presence on the campaign trail. Along with Barack Obama, he has turned the word “lobbyist” into an epithet in Democratic circles, and this has served as a way to attack national front-runner Clinton obliquely rather than head-on.  Edwards has also raised the electability question that has held the Clinton campaign back somewhat.

Edwards has an advantage that other campaigns (besides also-ran Dennis Kucinich of Ohio) don’t: lists of Iowans who backed him in 2004.  Many have stayed with Edwards for 2008.  But because Iowa is his strongest state, Edwards is the candidate most affected by the ongoing battle between states over the caucus and primary schedule.

Barack Obama is seeking to work his own plan.  He recently announced he has had enough of the cattle call/multi-candidate events and unsanctioned debates and forums from every interest group under the sun.  The rap on Obama is “inexperience,” and he consistently responds that judgment is more important. Often he takes the opportunity to cite his from-the beginning opposition to the Iraq War, in contrast to votes by Clinton and Edwards authorizing the war.

So barbs are beginning to fly among the top three.  But the Iowa caucuses became the IOWA CAUCUSES in large part because Iowans proved themselves willing to look past the front-runners and give the also-rans equal consideration. That’s the big hope for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.

Richardson has moved up in the polls to a steady number four in Iowa after running the first, and by consensus, best TV ads.  He has played on the "job interview" theme of the ads in appearances throughout the state and this week publicly set the goal of finishing third or better in the caucuses.  Though he has been slowed by poor debate performances, the consensus is he’s much stronger in solo settings.

Joe Biden has trailed in polls but picked up several legislative endorsements.  He’s tirelessly working the state and seems to allow the most time for question-and-answer sessions.  However, he tends to answer the same number of questions in the longer time frame, because his answers are much longer.  Biden is usually too deep and too detailed for sound bites, though he pulled off a classic in one early debate: Asked about his verbosity, he gave a one-word “yes” answer.

Chris Dodd appeared to be the odd man out until this week.  With no major support visible, he often appeared at the below 1 percent asterisk level in polls.  But this week’s surprise endorsement by the International Association of Firefighters may put Dodd on the map.  The firefighters’ endorsement served as a big break for John Kerry in late 2003, when Kerry was struggling and Howard Dean was possibly contemplating running mates. But the IAFF endorsement was quickly trumped by the Hillary Clinton campaign, which rushed out an endorsement from the International Association of Machinists while Dodd was triumphantly touring Iowa with the firefighters.

The campaigns of Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel have been mostly invisible in Iowa.  Kucinich has one field staffer in the state and occasionally registers residual support in polls from his 2004 run.  Kucinich’s debate performances tend to rise and fall with the format.  If the moderators are inclusive and split time reasonably evenly, Dennis rises to the occasion. But when he’s cut out of the conversation he sounds stressed and desperate.  Mike Gravel, whose last appearance on a ballot was a 1980 primary defeat in Alaska, has rarely seemed other than cantankerous.

While the mood of Democrats seems to be "it’s all good," Republicans seem to be asking, "is this the best we can do?"  The party’s front-runners each have flaws which could prove fatal with some segment or another of the conservative coalition: former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney‘s Mormon faith; Arizona Sen. John McCain‘s age; former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani‘s two divorces, strained relationship with his children and his moderate track record on social issues, and then there’s former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson‘s reluctance to actually get into the race.

Iowa Republicans have already seen one round of voting at the Aug. 11 Ames Straw Poll.  The buy-a-vote fundraiser, won by Romney, saw significantly lower turnout than the 1999 event and was haunted by three no-shows: Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson.

The biggest story so far on the Republican side has been McCain’s slide from the top tier to the also-rans.  Dogged by fierce criticism from the Republican base for his support of the Bush administration’s immigration bill, and by frustration even among Republicans for his support of Iraq War policy, McCain has seen money and support vanish.  There’s open speculation that he’s only staying in the race to qualify for federal matching funds in January.  McCain has campaigned intermittently in Iowa, but avoided the pre-Ames candidate crunch.

Undeclared candidate Fred Thompson has made one foray into Iowa, speaking at the state fair the week after Ames.  Many wags noted that rather than walking the grounds, he was ferried about in a golf cart. The former Tennessee senator is expected to make a long-delayed formal announcement next week.

Giuliani visited Iowa before the straw poll and since then, and was running ads the week before Ames. He recently opened a second Iowa office, in Iowa City.  But internal campaign documents leaked this week to the Washington Post indicate that Giuliani, the front-runner in national polls, is more likely to focus on other states (“Florida is the firewall,” proclaims a Giuliani campaign PowerPoint presentation), hoping that 9/11 name ID and the Feb. 5 national primary will propel him to the nomination.

The straw poll voters punished all three candidates who skipped Ames.  Though the first-place winner at Ames was Romney, the consensus Big Winner was former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who upset Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback in the battle for second place and for the hearts and minds of Christian conservatives.  The Fair Tax organization, which backs a national sales tax to replace the income tax, claimed victory for Huckabee.

Huckabee has crafted a compassionate conservative image and spun out an interesting personal story that includes a 100-pound weight loss a few years ago and an unexpected love for rock music.  In contrast Brownback, the other competitor for the religious right vote, stuck more strictly to the anti-choice template, running negative ads pre-Ames against rivals and making unsubtle campaign appearances with Terry Schiavo’s brother and Norma “Jane Roe” McCorvey, the Roe v. Wade plaintiff who has since converted to the anti-choice cause.

In contrast to Giuliani’s national strategy, Iowa appears to play a big role in Mitt Romney’s game plan.  He spent heavily to win the straw poll and seems to be the establishment choice, at least in Iowa, since McCain’s collapse.  He still trails in national polls, which probably reflects lower name ID than Giuliani, McCain and TV star Fred Thompson.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul seems to be fighting a completely different battle than the other Republicans.  Die-hard internet support for the anti-big government, anti-war, one-time Libertarian nominee led to money and pre-Ames radio and TV ads.  Paul was advertising on rock radio stations for a small turnout election, while most candidates only bother with news radio and other older demographics.  Before straw poll week, his one Iowa visit was a well-attended Des Moines rally next door to a candidate forum from which he’d been ham-handedly excluded.  Paul’s backers range from the reasonable to the, well, quirky, but he’s put himself on the map far more than anyone expected. It’s hard to see this truly different candidate winning the nomination, but it’s also hard to see his supporters backing anyone else.

Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo was expected to make a bigger splash than he has with his anti-immigration message.  But perhaps he achieved his stated goal of promoting the issue.  In any case, he has kept a lower profile since the immigration bill died, and now seems more interested in attacking other Republican lawmakers whom he sees as weak on the issue.

The straw poll drove Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin completely out of the race. The former governor publicly said he’d get out if he didn’t finish first or second; he came in sixth.  Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore didn’t even make it as far as Ames, bailing after a couple debates.  His lone contribution to the dialogue was coining the name “Rudy McRomney” to dismiss the then-frontrunners.  That’s more than California Rep. Duncan Hunter, whose invisible campaign continues, has managed, and there seems little rationale for his no-chance bid.  Low point: Hunter couldn’t say why he voted against the farm bill.  At the Iowa State Fair.