Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.
A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.
The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.
The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.
Going into Saturday’s Straw Poll in Ames, the real battle was for second place. One clear contest, at least in my mind, was between Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback.
Both Huckabee and Brownback have battled for what seems to be the same “candidate space” on the radar screens of Republican caucus goers. The two candidates run what most would consider to be the most outwardly religious campaigns on the Republican side, frequently invoking scripture in specific policy discussions, rather than merely during discussions of values in the abstract. Their positions on almost all issues — and in particular on social issues — are closely aligned.
Some commentators have even suggested that the two will split the evangelical vote down the middle at January’s caucuses, and that the split could serve to benefit bigger-name candidates whose social conservative credentials are weaker. At Saturday’s Straw Poll, at least, the split was real.
Here, I set aside the cynical-but-perhaps-accurate view that money, and only money, is what wins the Ames Straw Poll, and I consider other potential factors: tax policies, personal lives and endorsements.Tax Policies
Huckabee’s position on taxes certainly benefited his Straw Poll efforts Saturday and may have provided his margin over Brownback. The Arkansas governor supports the popular FairTax proposal, supported most visibly by controversial radio talk-show host Neal Boortz.
Brownback, on the other hand, supports an “optional flat tax.” During his speech in Hilton Auditorium at the event, Brownback noted that “we’re taxed to the max” and that “I have never voted for a tax increase, and I’ll certainly never sign one [as President].”
But while Brownback’s voting record on taxes may have been spotless enough to inspire the Club for Growth to run an anti-Huckabee TV ad campaign in the week before the Straw Poll, a flat tax is not the FairTax. And FairTax was the organization busing people in. Garance wrote in more depth about the works of the FairTax organization on Saturday night after talking to its national spokesperson.
Personal Lives
It is the sad reality that many evangelicals vote based on candidates’ personal lives. Catholic convert Brownback’s religious history is fairly heterogeneous, while ordained minister Huckabee’s religion is virtually impossible to question. anti-Catholic biases in the Protestant segment of the evangelical community do occasionally surface, and this may have made an impact.
More importantly, however, when Brownback and Huckabee travel through Iowa on Sundays, Huckabee gets to preach from the pulpit, while Brownback does not. Social networks like churches are very useful for recruiting supporters, and here, Huckabee also has the edge. (In some cases, churches have better voter files than even the Iowa GOP.)
Endorsements
In the battle for evangelicals, both campaigns struggle to get more names on their press releases. But Brownback, whose biggest endorsement among Iowa social conservatives is likely Chuck Hurley, is matched against two important evangelical politicos at the top of Huckabee’s campaign. Bob Vanderplaats and Danny Carroll, both evangelical Republican politicians who lost campaigns in 2006, head Huckabee’s Iowa campaign as chair and co-chair, respectively.
Vanderplaats ran against former Congressman Jim Nussle for the Republican nomination for governor in 2006, and he drew enough support from social conservatives that Nussle decided to co-opt him as his running mate. Carroll represented a district including Grinnell and Oskaloosa and served as House president Pro Tem until his 2006 re-election loss.
In this category as well, Huckabee seems to have the edge with more politically connected folks on his side.
What does it mean?
No one issue will win the Straw Poll. Even a preponderance of issues cannot do it if it is true that only money talks. But the almost indiscernible differences between Brownback and Huckabee could have made the difference the governor needed. And for what it is worth, Brownback outspent Huckabee by a bit of a margin.
Do you know where to vote on Election Day? Do you know what to bring with you? Get comprehensive voter information for your state here.
Sign up for our email newsletter