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Obama lead steady on Iowa Electronic Markets
Barack Obama continues to hold a steady lead on the Iowa Electronic Markets, with little movement since the final debate two weeks ago.
Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at 85 cents, down less than a penny in the last two weeks. The 85 cent price means traders give the Democratic ticket an 85 percent chance of winning. Republican John McCain’s shares are selling for 15.3 cents. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.
On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 54.7 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 47 cents.
In other markets, traders overwhelmingly predict increased Democratic majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate, but believe that the Minnesota U.S. Senate race is getting closer. Democrat Al Franken has a narrow edge over GOP incumbent Norm Coleman.
The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates’ chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.