Ames Straw Poll May See More Losers Than Winners

U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback from Kansas is bringing in the band Kansas, and hoping he won’t be dust in the wind by day’s end. Congressman Duncan Hunter of California has hired an Elvis impersonator. And unlikely Led Zeppelin fan Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, will be playing bass with his own band.

“Take a political convention and mix it with a tailgate party,” said Johnson County GOP activist Todd Versteegh of Saturday’s Iowa Republican straw poll at Iowa State’s Hilton Coliseum in Ames. “If you’re a political junkie, this is a prime event.”

It may also be the last chance to see some of the Republican presidential candidates. Since its inception in 1979, the straw poll has grown from a low-key fund-raiser to the de facto first round of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The day will see more losers than winners. What’s officially at stake for the candidates is no more than bragging rights. But the lack of something to brag about may be fatal. Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole and Dan Quayle all dropped out after poor showings in 1999, while Pat Buchanan left the Republican Party to take over the remnants of Ross Perot’s Reform Party. In contrast, only one candidate — Orrin Hatch — dropped out after the actual caucuses.

“After next Saturday, between three to four of the candidates are going to drop out,” said Versteegh. “If you don’t want to see somebody potentially drop out, go support them.”The Iowa GOP itself may be one of the losers. The straw poll remains first and foremost a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party. Republican Party of Iowa (RPI) Executive Director Chuck Laudner told Campaigns and Elections that the 1999 event took in $1 million. You have to show two things to vote in the straw poll: an Iowa ID and a ticket. Tickets are $35, up from $25 eight years ago. While some are sold to the public, the vast majority are purchased by the presidential campaigns and distributed to supporters, who are bused in for the event. The straw poll has become, in effect, a command performance for the GOP contenders and their wallets.

But the party’s hopes for 2007 took a hit early on when two top-tier contenders — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona — said no thanks to the game of buying tickets and bringing buses, bands and barbecue. This essentially conceded the win to contender Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts.

Romney is still playing for the win, but was able to scale back his efforts, which pinches the state party’s pocketbook at a time when it needs help. Last year was a tough one for Iowa Republicans, who lost two congressional seats, both houses of the Legislature, and failed to retake the governorship.

Still, the hype is in the air, and the state party is estimating a turnout of up to 40,000 people. The Hilton Coliseum venue holds only about 12,000 people, so supporters of the different candidates will be shuffled in and out between the speeches. To hear everyone speak, you need a premium “red ticket,” or a seat in front of one of the many TVs that’ll be outside the hall in the candidate tents, along with food and live entertainment.

Rumors have been floating that smaller campaigns have quietly told their supporters to take advantages of Romney’s largesse, ride his buses, and then vote for someone else. “We’ve heard those rumors, too,” said Romney spokeswoman Sarah Pompei, “but we’re focusing on having the strongest organization on the ground in Ames.” Joe Seehusen of the Ron Paul campaign said hitching a ride with another campaign is “not something we’re encouraging. We have many enthusiastic supporters who are doing a variety of things, but the campaign is not encouraging or endorsing that.”

For the first time, issue groups will join the candidates in the tent and ticket presence. Fair Tax is promoting a flat national sales tax as a replacement for the entire tax code and is trying to get commitments from the campaigns. Along with candidates, Fair Tax is touring the state by bus. “Huckabee was with us in Hampton,” said Versteegh, who works for the organization, “and Duncan Hunter was with us on a couple stops. Tancredo’s been talking about it in some detail.” The only candidate who has offered a flat-out no is Giuliani.

Fair Tax is positioning itself as a home for undecided voters and as a potential power broker. The group is offering bus rides to people who “don’t want to commit to a candidate or don’t know,” said Versteegh.

Handicapping the Horses

Ostensibly, the straw poll “matters” as a test of organizational skill.  It bears little resemblance to a real election, given the need to buy a ballot and having only one polling place in the state.  But it bears a superficial enough resemblance to the organizational skills needed on caucus night that it is seen as, in the words of Pompei, “a dress rehearsal.”  It’s a classic horse-race event in the self-amplifying media echo chamber: It matters because someone says it matters, and so on, and so on.

Horse races are fun and exciting, so let’s place our bets.

The candidates break into three tiers: Romney and the phantoms, the do-or-die second tier, and the candidates who’ll be unaffected by the outcome.

Back when college football factored margin of victory into its rankings, next-door rival Nebraska used to run up the score against Iowa State to margins like 77-13. But when point totals were taken out of the mix, the Cornhuskers started playing the second-, third- and fourth-string players earlier in the game.

That’s sort of what’s happened with the Romney campaign. “Mr. Romney’s pretty much bought the election,” said Roy Tyler of the Duncan Hunter campaign. With Romney leading in Iowa polls, and with his chief rivals out of town on Saturday, he doesn’t have to bring his A game. “A win is a win,” said Romney’s spokeswoman, avoiding any numbers when asked.  Pompei also declined to say just how many Romney buses would be arriving, though Johnson County supporters mentioned at least three from the Iowa City-Coralville area alone at a Monday central committee meeting.

Pompei was quick to note, however, that the phantom candidates are still on the ballot. “Rudy Giuliani’s been around the state campaigning like he’s in the straw poll, and buying radio ads,” she said. John McCain has also been in the state recently, but has had a low profile as the week progresses, perhaps waiting for the field to thin before coming back. Bob Anderson of rural Swisher hosted a McCain event at his home Sunday, and said he “will be back extensively during September.”  For now, McCain is in New Hampshire — where most Democratic candidates are spending the week.

Newt Gingrich’s American Solutions group will have a big presence in Ames, conducting workshops before and after the candidates speak. The organization is planning a “major announcement” Sept. 27, among much speculation that this may involve a Gingrich candidacy.

The former speaker of the House of Representatives is not on the ballot, and no write-ins are allowed. The Iowa Republicans have, however, called out another undeclared candidate coyly hovering on the edge of the race, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, and placed him on the ballot. This sets up a phantom contest played out entirely in the spin zone. A poor Fred Thompson showing may spur Gingrich on, but if the Tennessean does well Gingrich may defer.

Ames is do or die for three candidates: Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tommy Thompson.  The key rivalry here is Brownback vs. Huckabee. Both are appealing for the same social conservative niche, and there simply isn’t room for both of them to survive beyond Saturday. Sparks have been flying between the two camps for weeks.

Brownback has been more blatant in wooing  social conservatives, campaigning with Terri Schaivo’s brother and with “Jane Roe,” the Roe v. Wade plaintiff who has since converted to the anti-choice cause. Huckabee has presented a more-rounded campaign, emphasizing Fair Tax at many stops. Huckabee has been quoted as saying that a finish below fourth place would likely drive him from the race, and some national party leaders have tried to steer the former Arkansas governor toward a 2008 challenge to Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. But Huckabee supporter Royce Phillips of Tiffin is confident: “We’re going to do well Saturday.”

Tommy Thompson — adding to the confusion of a big field, there’s two Toms and two Thompsons — has been a constant presence in Iowa for months. The former governor of next-door Wisconsin has been Winnebago-ing his way through nearly every Iowa county and boldly predicting a strong showing. His survival could depend most on his showing against absent contenders Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson. Iowa City supporter John Dane reports that he’s driving himself up to Ames to back Tommy Thompson.

Some candidates are unlikely to see their fate affected by Ames. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo has already talked of refocusing his campaign toward primary challenges of Republican congressional incumbents whom he considers weak on illegal immigration. Still, Tancredo is joining most of the rest of the field in campaigning across Iowa this week.

Libertarian-Republican Ron Paul of Texas faces a test of whether he can translate his internet support into bodies on the ground in one place at one time. “Our internet efforts have had a positive fund-raising impact,” said spokesman Joe Seehusen. “That’s allowed us to embrace more traditional efforts in Iowa like direct mail and radio ads.” Paul has campaigned little in Iowa other than a high-profile rally in late June after he was excluded from a candidate forum. Yet this week he is making his first multi-day foray across Iowa.

Iowa blogger Noneed4theneed predicts a poor Paul showing:

The number of days Rep. Paul has campaigned dwarfs in comparison to every Republican candidate. To do well in Iowa you need to shake hands, lots of hands. Iowans don’t decide on who to support by what they hear on TV and fewer rely on the Internet, which is Paul’s strength. The strength of Internet support in Iowa is especially weak in rural areas, which are largely Republican. Iowans that live in rural counties value the opinions of their local paper and their neighbors, and many of these people have never visited a blog.

“We don’t expect to compete with other groups in terms of lavishness” in Ames, said Seehusen. “Dr. Paul, and his message of liberty and freedom, is the main event.” With his support largely indigestible by any other Republican candidate, the question for Paul after Ames may be whether he follows the Pat Buchanan precedent of leaving the party.

The Duncan Hunter campaign is staking little on the Ames outcome. Amid open speculation that he’s positioning himself for secretary of Defense in a Republican administration, the San Diego congressman may win the Orrin Hatch prize: in 1999 Hatch finished last but moved forward undeterred. “We have no big expectations, we’re just going to work hard and hope for the best,” said spokesman Roy Tyler of the Hunter campaign in a Wednesday interview. “The congressman’s 15 minutes of fame will be well spent.” The Hunter website has a “Buy A Ticket” link, suggesting that the lavishness may be lacking.

Every Republican cycle seems to include an obscure businessman who pledges businesslike government. This time it’s John Cox of Chicago. Cox has not been included in debates, and most national websites list him among the fringe candidates, but the Iowa GOP has always listed him with the “serious” candidates and is including him on the ballot.  Cox’s inclusion “was a decision between the Republican Party of Iowa and the state central committee, said Iowa Republican Party spokeswoman Mary Tiffany.  “He’s spent a lot of time here and come to a lot of party events.”  Cox cites his own conception, which was the result of rape, as the rationale for his absolute anti-abortion stance. Actively campaigning across Iowa, Cox has seemed far more serious than businessman candidate Morrie Taylor in 1996, who once famously won a tavern “straw” (as in drink stirrer) poll by buying a round for the house.

Not on the ballot is Alan Keyes. A surprisingly strong contender in 1996 and 2000, Keyes lost what credibility he had in a 2004 U.S. Senate race, moving from Maryland to Illinois to run and then losing 3-to-1 to some guy named Obama.  Nevertheless, Keyes will be in Ames plugging a Draft Keyes group — which he appears to have started himself.