Despite the sky-is-falling mentality that has consumed the global mindset of investors as of late, University of Iowa economic forecaster John Geweke expects that this year’s floods, foreclosures, market meltdowns and bankrupt banks will have minimal impact on the Iowa economy in the coming year.

In his quarterly report delivered to the state’s Revenue Estimating Committee on Friday, Geweke said he expects Iowans’ personal income to increase by 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5 percent in 2009.

Employment growth, however, will not be as strong. He expects job growth in Iowa to increase by only 0.2 percent in 2008 and then shrink by 0.4 percent in 2009.

His forecast expects state tax revenues to remain steady through next year.

Geweke, director of the Institute for Economic Research in the Tippie College of Business, said the state’s agriculture sector will continue to lead the economy, as prices for commodities remain high. The energy sector will also remain strong, with ethanol production and wind turbine manufacturing leading the way.

“Personal incomes remain strong because farm income and property income from farm rental have been increasing,” Geweke said in a statement.

Gov. Chet Culver echoed Geweke’s economic prognosis, claiming Iowa is well-positioned to withstand Wall Street’s crisis, The Des Moines Register reported.

“The good news is that in Iowa, our fiscal house is in order, so going into this challenging national economic situation, Iowa is actually much better positioned than most states,” Culver said in a speech to about 300 people at the Governor’s Homeland Security Conference in downtown Des Moines on Sept. 30, The Des Moines Register reported. “I feel good knowing that we continue to create jobs and our bioeconomy is doing well, although it’s still too early to know the direct impact from the financial crisis on Wall Street.”

However, Geweke said the problems affecting the national economy will soon reach Iowa and lead to an increase in unemployment next year. He said that if the credit markets don’t loosen up in the next month and businesses have more access to cash, more job losses could result and unemployment could go higher than anticipated.

Thus far, an estimated 1,000 people have received help finding employment after losing their jobs because of the floods, and the state has leveraged more than $1 million in federal disaster unemployment insurance, which will help more than 10,000 Iowans at no cost to their employers, Culver said.