Poll: Mathis has slight lead in SD 18

Poll results released late Sunday evening show Democrat Liz Mathis holding a six-point lead over Republican Cindy Golding in Tuesday’s special election for Iowa Senate District 18.

Tom Jenson, director of Public Policy Polling, said, “The numbers suggest that Mathis is just a stronger candidate than Golding.”

Overall, 52 percent of respondents said they would support Mathis, while 46 percent gave their nod to Golding. But when asked if there is a preference for GOP or Democratic control of the chamber, local voters are evenly split with 44 percent supporting each party.

“But Mathis is outrunning those numbers when it comes to how people are planning to vote on Tuesday,” Jensen said. “The big key for her is that she’s taking 16 percent of the GOP vote from Golding, while losing only 9 percent of the Democratic vote. That helps her make up for a 50-to-45 deficit with independents.”

The special election was prompted by a move by Democrat Swati Dandekar out of the Senate and onto the Iowa Utilities Board. Democrats currently hold a one-seat advantage in the chamber, so the race will not only determine this particular seat, but who holds control when the 2012 General Assembly convenes in January.

The Public Policy Polling results also show what local media has been reporting for some time: Local voters aren’t basing their candidate decision along the issue of gay marriage.

“They’re planning to vote for Mathis even as 46 percent of them say gay marriage should be illegal, compared to just 42 percent who think it should be legal,” Jensen said. “Although voters in the district may oppose gay marriage, only 11 percent say that issue is the most important factor guiding their vote compared to 86 percent who say it is something else. It’s also worth noting that 66 percent of voters do support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 30 percent opposed to all legal recognition for same-sex couples.”

What could be at play, according to the pollster is a referendum on the “power grab” by Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who was responsible for the appointment of Dandekar to the state board.

“Voters may be sending a message to Governor Terry Branstad. His approval rating in the district is only 39 percent, with 42 percent disapproving of him. This special election is seen in some quarters as the product of a power grab by Branstad and if Mathis wins it could be indicative of an electorate that doesn’t want to enhance his power.”

Although the majority of voters in the district also disapprove of Barack Obama (51 percent), Mathis numbers suggest, the pollster said, that Democrats can still win in areas where Obama’s numbers are low enough to suggest a down-ballot issue.

“This race is close enough that it could go the other way, but more than likely Democrats will retain control in the Iowa Senate on Tuesday night.”

The poll did not gauge support for Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack, who isn’t expected to have a strong showing at the polls, but is expected to pull any support he might garner from voters who are otherwise likely to support Golding.

In the past few days, Mathis has begun airing a 2-minute television spot where she speaks directly to district voters. That ad is embedded below:

Monday morning, a national group of social conservatives led by the National Organization for Marriage and Family Research Council Action are expected to appear in Marion (the largest city within Senate District 18) to rally against gay marriage and on behalf of Golding.