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Open letter to readers: Today and tomorrow

By Lynda Waddington | 11.17.11

Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.

ACS lockout continues; plan emerges to repeal sugar protections

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By Virginia Chamlee | 11.15.11

A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.

Cain campaign: Farmers know more about regulations than EPA

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By Andrew Duffelmeyer | 11.15.11

The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.

Mathis wins, Democrats maintain Senate control

Liz Mathis
By Lynda Waddington | 11.08.11

The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.

Press Release

PR: Nation should work to address veterans’ challenges

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

BRUCE BRALEY RELEASE — As US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan ends, it’s more important than ever that our nation works to address the challenges faced by the men and women who fought there.

PR: Honoring veterans, help in hiring

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

CHUCK GRASSLEY RELEASE — A difficult job market is challenging the soldiers, sailors and airmen who have protected America’s interests by serving in the Armed Forces.

PR: In honor of America’s veterans

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

TOM LATHAM RELEASE — No one has done more to secure the freedom enjoyed by every single American than our veterans and those currently serving in the armed services.

PR: Honoring and supporting our nation’s veterans

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

DAVE LOEBSACK RELEASE — Veterans Day is an opportunity to reflect on the service of generations of veterans and to honor the sacrifices they and their families have made so that we may live in peace and freedom here at home.

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Iowa 2012 GOP Presidential Power Rankings: Movement in the second tier

By Staff report | 05.09.11 | 10:00 am

In the fifth edition of The Iowa Independent’s 2012 Presidential Power Rankings, the panelists take note of debate performances while continuing to search for consensus on which of the potential candidates will lead the pack.

The panelists again take note of a wide field, commenting on or ranking 13 potential candidates. Yet of those candidates, only two receive a first place ranking from more than one of our panelists, indicating that there is still some unrest among Republicans as they search for an ideal candidate who can challenge a sitting Democratic incumbent and embody the necessary fiscal and social conservative principles that are driving Iowa caucus-goers.

Perhaps most of note in this edition is the entrance of a man initially considered an “also ran” candidate into our top five, another indicator of how soft support can be this early in the process and how some are continuing to search.

Such perspectives have been culled from our staff members, additional state political reporters, party activists, academics, elected officials, political consultants and other insiders to create these rankings. While unscientific, the ranks provide insights that cannot be garnered in traditional polling or from any one pundit as to a candidate’s organizational strength in the Hawkeye State.

All those invited to participate are asked to answer one question: “If the Iowa caucus was held tonight, what would be the results?”

The rankings below provide a snapshot in time based on educated guesses and “gut instincts.” Campaigns were evaluated based on personal perceptions and input from others as to the quality of shoe-leather activity, ability to motivate possible caucus attendees and second-choice support. Panelists aren’t provided a specific ballot of potential candidates, and are free to choose from any Republican candidate — rumored or actual.

With all of that in mind, if the caucus was held tonight, this is how we think it would end.

  1. Tim Pawlenty — As the only so-called “top tier” candidate to be in attendance at a recent South Carolina debate, it’s little wonder that Pawlenty would get a national bounce as a result of the event. For Iowans, however, the focus on Pawlenty still seems to be the fact that he has surrounded himself with proven staff members and that he continues to relentlessly work the state.

    “Pawlenty didn’t shine in the debate as some anticipated he would,” noted one of our panelists, proving that the game of expectations still plays a huge role in the Iowa caucus process.

    [Pawlenty] didn’t make any major mistakes, though he still wasn’t particular inspiring. Many called his performance polished, but he still seemed stiff in his gestures,” said another.

    But despite “not a lot of national name recognition, not a lot of flash, not getting a lot of love in current polls,” Pawlenty “keeps working hard” and is currently “the slow and steady turtle in the race.”

  2. Mike Huckabee — At this point, there seems to be few people who are willing to count out former Arkansas Governor and 2008 Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee. That being said, however, the panelists are nearly unified in their belief that if Huckabee waits until after the Ames Straw Poll to make his jump into the race, he won’t get the Iowa nomination and any hopes he has of leading the national party in the general election will be doomed.

    “Most of Huckabee’s supporters remain strong, even as his former staff members have signed with other campaigns,” a panelist said. “But you have to wonder, when the true ‘wooing’ begins, how many will be content to sit around when there are others like Bachmann, Judge Moore and Santorum that could fill the void that Huckabee is leaving behind?”

    “I just continue to talk to too many people who supported him last time that are concerned about three things: 1) He doesn’t really have the fire in the belly hence his delay in formulating a staff/campaign, 2) that really when you get beyond an intimate and informal but devoted group of followers, largely perceived to be working on their own, he doesn’t have a campaign apparatus in Iowa so who does he plan on bringing in to run things, and 3) his recent comments about the budget and urging the Republicans to cave on funding Obamacare and Planned Parenthood have sent a signal he’s just not the same guy he use to be, but instaed has spent too much time on Fox News and has lost touch with the grassroots,” said another.

  3. Michele Bachmann — U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of neighboring Minnesota continues to an obvious cross-over candidate if Huckabee doesn’t soon step up and become serious about 2012. And while she has not gathered the experienced staff that Pawlenty has in the Hawkeye State, she also has not been prone to Pawlenty’s perceived mis-steps.

    “[Bachmann] is one of those candidates that you don’t have to wonder where she is or if she is attempting new messaging,” said one of our panelists. “She talks the same to Iowans whether she is appearing before social conservatives or fiscal conservatives, and that type of consistency is something that Iowans notice and appreciate.”

    If there is one other candidate in the field that could play spoiler to Pawlenty, our panelists believe at this moment in time it is Bachmann.

  4. Herman Cain — Former Godfather’s Pizza chief executive and current talk show host Herman Cain makes his first appearance in our rankings at number four, but that doesn’t tell the full story of the energy he has created in Iowa.

    “If you could take Donald Trump and remove all the negatives, you end up with Herman Cain,” said one panelist. “He is the Iowa dark horse, and I think he’s one that could trot all the way to the general election finish line.”

    “While Gary Johnson and Ron Paul slug it out over a small sliver of liberally-leaning Republicans, Cain has the ability to snag up those votes on common-sense issues while continuing to pull from the larger majority of Republicans that focus on both social and fiscal issues. He’s the real deal and the total package — charismatic, energetic and someone who can take on the Obama machine and win,” noted another.

    And while liberal activists have already gone after Cain for comments perceived as “Islamophobic,” our panelists aren’t convinced that such remarks will be viewed negatively by the GOP base. “It’s not clear if those [comments] will be assets or liabilities,” said one panelists, who also noted that if it weren’t for “Paultards owning every online poll ever, Cain would be the unanimous winner of the first debate” by virtue of his ability to articulate his thoughts and the fact that he is an anti-politician.

  5. Newt Gingrich — Former U.S. House Speaker has consistently appeared at the bottom of our rankings, proving that he could win Iowa. It remains to be seen, however, if he is actually serious about 2012 or if the race for the White House is anything more than “an opportunity to sell more books.”

    “[Gingrich's] name ID, impressive resume, intellectualism, oratory skills and an even more divided social conservative voter base by the entrance of Mike Huckabee in the race gives him a good shot of consolidating just even support to eke out a win. That divided social conservative voter base will largely allow Gingrich — the less charming Republican version of Bill Clinton — to talk about issues and not is personal peccadilloes which is what he does best,” a panelist notes.

    Unlike Pawlenty, who is viewed as battling against a major lack of national attention, Gingrich has more national attention than he actually wants — and that is likely to be his downfall. “I still suspect that his personal and political baggage will keep him from winning the nomination, or the caucuses, but he should at least start well.”

Over the past few weeks, Iowans have been drenched in news from from appearances by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, but such headlines only led to a mere handful of our panelists of making him a blip on the campaign radar. Only one panelist gave him a fourth place finish, all others listed him at fifth place — and many more simply noted he’d visited the state without ranking him at all. “He has bragged about his ability to beat incumbents, but that might remind people that he was an incumbent that got beat.”

Despite what some considered to be a good debate performance, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul also didn’t come close to our top five for this installment. Most panelists believe that any support that previously was reserved solely for Paul has now been split between Paul, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson (who is viewed as having a much more interesting personal story) and Cain. Given those match-ups, our panelists believe Paul loses every time.

It seems as long as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to ignore the Hawkeye State, our panelists are content to continue to ignore him. Those who chose to rank him, placed him low, and others merely lumped him with much lesser-known candidates like Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry.

And while the nation continues to buzz about the potential entry of real estate mogul Donald Trump into the 2012 race, Iowans remain less than impressed. “Trump has set himself up as the anti-Obama, so news that the Obama administration had taken out Osama bin Laden did Trump no favors. When you combine that with the release of a long-form birth certificate and protests by Indy 500 fans of Trump driving the pace car, and it is easy to see that Trump picked the peg issue for any potential campaign and has too much baggage to win any significant Iowa support. All the state party can hope for at this point is that he continues to generate headlines that can sell dinner tickets.”

The campaign for former GOP political insider Fred Karger, which has been rarely mentioned by our Power Rankings panel, received several points of love this week from those who noticed that Karger is attempting to branch out from what has been perceived up until this point as his single campaign issue of gay rights. The fact that Karger is making fiscal noises and, in particular, hoping to draw support from young Republicans was of note to our team, despite the fact that Karger didn’t draw enough support to enter our top five.

Comments

  • http://profiles.google.com/seigrene2 Brian Godley

    I wonder to myself, who exactly are these panelists? I severely doubt they represent “iowans” as a whole.
    Fluff and more fluff.

  • Anonymous

    Ron Paul is the most likely of any potential Republican candidate to beat Obama in a head-to-head contest according to the latest CNN poll: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/05/cnn-poll-still-no-front-runner-in-the-battle-for-the-gop-nomination/

    The fact remains that contrary to what the “panelists” have suggested, Ron Paul’s support remains deeper if not broader than anyone in the Republican field. That is, Ron Paul has 10% support at present and those supporters are not going anywhere no matter what happens. On the other hand, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, Pawlenty, etc, supporters are likely to change alliances depending on the changing media winds or perceived electability of the candidates based (possibly) on your unnamed “panelists” changing views. Ron Paul is a terrific position right now and the idea that he trails Herman Cain in your rank of the candidates shows a transparent bias in your analysis. Cain is Alan Keyes with less style, substance, and vitriol.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_FPJCDTHLDYB5X5HEQBVZRWJKEA Jeremy

      Yes, I agree Ron Paul is a terrific position right now. He can raise millions of dollars at the drop of a hat (in ONE DAY!) and among a much larger swath of voters, not just the big donors. I also agree their rank of the candidates shows a HUGE bias. Sounds like they are trying to “make” candidates vs. get a true feeling of who has grass-roots support. I often wonder when I hear the other candidates answer debate questions if they even have read their own party’s platform! It seems most of the party platform is just lip service to keep us masses quiet, then when they get into office they just blame the other party (Dems) for road-blocking them when in fact I believe many of our candidate are not true party platform supporters.

    • http://profiles.google.com/trevor.viljoen Trevor Viljoen

      Paul is a raving lunatic. He appears off his rocker most of the time. Herman Cain has been gaining a lot of momentum and has won many recent straw polls. To dismiss him or any of the other candidates as a legitimate contender shows an inate fear or severe case of denial, which is not uncommon for the RP crowd. They tend to get nasty and mean when people don’t agree with Ron.

      Ron Paul may well have the 10% support you suggest. His problem is that he has 10% now and will still only have that same 10% when everything is said and done.

      Ron Paul stands ZERO chance against Obama. Personally, I won’t vote for somebody who does not believe in American Exceptionalism or believes that allowing people to shoot up heroine is a good idea.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_54MLLLRGUPVNTRLZX73ZDEJ2UU Otto B

      Paul’s strength is among independents.  He wont win any states in the Republican primary/caucus system.  He will probably do well in Iowa, maybe 3rd or even 2nd, because the Iowa caucus rewards dogged patience over the course of the day/evening.  

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_F6VJWD2ZO6VTDCGD5WLJVV4YEM BalaShark

    Somebody please get Rick Perry into this race. Nobody else can beat Obama.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_54MLLLRGUPVNTRLZX73ZDEJ2UU Otto B

      Rick Perry ran and won a seat in the Texas legislature as a Democrat.
      Thereafter he was VP Al Gore’s Texas campaign manager vs Bush43 in 2000.
      Perry is a fake.  
      He is the flip flop champion, the person with the least credibility among all candidates.    
       Perry will not last to the Republican convention. The other candidates just have to run ads of Perry holding Al Gore’s hand.   

  • Anonymous

    Mike Huckabee has my vote. I am voting for integrity, hard work and compassion. Everyone else pales in comparison.

  • Anonymous

    Mike Huckabee is indeed a viable potential candidate with an Organized and ready team. There is misinformation about Mike promoted by conservatives that have not done their homework. Please read http://truthaboutmikehuckabee.com and learn the truth rather than rumor.

    • IowaExpat

      Huckabee: Americans Should Be Forced, At Gunpoint, To Learn From
      David Barton

      Note: David Barton is
      a Christian Dominionist seeking to apply the Bible to every aspect of the
      culture.

      • Anonymous

        If Huck runs I’ll vote for Him! I don’t think Barton is running. :-)

        I like what Huck says about government and business. He’s a straight shooter. Not your average politician!

        • IowaExpat

          You are known by the company you keep.

          In a message dated 5/12/2011 3:40:09 P.M. Central Daylight Time,
          writes:

          TexasWeaver1 wrote, in response to IowaExpat:

          If Huck runs I’ll vote for Him! I don’t think Barton is running. :-)

          I like what Huck says about government and business. He’s a straight
          shooter. Not your average politician!

          Link to comment: http://disq.us/1xqpcp

          • Anonymous

            In the right context that may be true.This is probably not one.  All of us have great friends that may disagree with us on many issues. I respect your opinion but disagree with  you. Bet you and I have a lot we could agree on. :-) you. Bet you and I have a lot we could agree on. :-)

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_54MLLLRGUPVNTRLZX73ZDEJ2UU Otto B

        the bible is a lovely work of fiction. The main purpose is to allow people to make the false claim that God is on THEIR side re issues of control.
        The appeal to the authority of the sky god does not convince people who can read the zillion examples of the same ‘religion’ in other cultures world wide. ALL  the myths of the Bible are to be found in prior cultures.
        The internet undermines the appeal to authority among those who can read outside the box.  Sure, those who live by faith in the good old time religion are still duped.  27% of the electorate in the USA.  
        Hence Bachmann’s interest in a vote of her zealots on whether non-heteros shall have civil rights like the rest of us. Get out the vote!!

  • http://www.eddiecaplan.com/ egc52556

    How often does such a fragmented field of primary candidates — in either party — EVER go on to beat the sitting President (and thus, deny the President a 2nd term)?

    Well, Clinton did it in 1992, beating a wide field of primary candidates, including a serious challenge from Gerry Brown.

    Reagan in 1980 didn’t face a fragmented field of primary candidates.  (Reagan was the Ford’s running mate in 1976 so was “next in line.”)

    Carter did it in 1976, running as an “honest” candidate (i.e. “not Nixon”) beating a wide field, and eventually beating Ford in 1976 (greatly weakened by his pardon of Nixon).

    Before that….. you have to go back to, maybe, FDR vs. Herbert Hoover.

    My point is: winners don’t emerge from fragmented non-incumbent primary fields, especially GOP primary fields.  Unless Obama makes some huge unforgivable gaff between now and November 2012, history foretells Obama will win the general election.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_54MLLLRGUPVNTRLZX73ZDEJ2UU Otto B

    This from the piece above is telling: activists have already gone after Cain for comments perceived as “Islamophobic,” our panelists aren’t convinced that such remarks will be viewed negatively by the GOP base”

    In effect, Cain is a divisive person/candidate, and is appealing to the least among us.
    Only a president who can legitimately appeal to unite us all can lead us to peace and prosperity.  Obama already won a Nobel prize, and all he had to do was speak this:
    we must all work together to solve our common human needs. We must put aside tribal, racial, ethnic differences and work to solve our real problems.  
    Cain is a demagogue.  Obama is a statesman. 

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_54MLLLRGUPVNTRLZX73ZDEJ2UU Otto B

    I wonder what the betting sites have as their top three?  People who put money on this stuff dont have agendas.  Pawlenty #1?  I laugh at this “committee”.
    Teepaw was under 10% in the poll of registered Iowans, just this past week.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_54MLLLRGUPVNTRLZX73ZDEJ2UU Otto B

    Des Moines Register poll:Romney led the poll of likely caucus-goers with 23 percent, followed by 22 percent support for Bachmann, Businessman Herman Cain had 10 percent support in the poll, U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas and former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich followed with 7 percent. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty had 6 percent while former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum got 4 percent and former U.S. envoy to China Jon Huntsman followed with 2 percent.
    Notice Pawlenty has 6 percent in real life.  Who were the committee used to put Pawlenty on top in this story?
    Here’s my list for the actual caucus results, selecting delegates to the convention:  Bachmann the clear #1.   Romney and Paul tied for 2nd/3rd in statistical dead-heat.  Cain, Pawlenty Huntsman finish far behind.  
    Actual nominee:   Bachmann     She will win South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

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