Information released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling indicates that Iowans still favor former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the ongoing Republican presidential contest. But, if Huckabee doesn’t decide to run, the emerging second choice is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Yet while the news is good for the two former government executives, it is not as rosy for real estate mogul Donald Trump.
“Trump doesn’t seem to have a lot of appeal to Republicans in [Iowa]. He has only a narrowly positive favorability rating with 41 percent of voters saying they like him to 40 percent who don’t,” wrote the pollsters on their blog. “That 40 percent unfavorable number is 11 points higher than the next most unpopular of the GOP contenders, Sarah Palin.”
Although the poll found that 48 percent of Iowa Republicans question President Barack Obama‘s place of birth — a movement commonly described as “birthers” or “birtherism” — Trump, who has been extremely outspoken on that very issue, has not necessarily gained favorability with that contingency. Only 19 percent of Iowa birthers view Trump favorably, while 25 percent view Huckabee favorably.
Huckabee, according to the poll, continues to do well with every segment of the GOP electorate, including members of the tea party movement.
Perhaps the potential candidate who might be most disheartened by the polling figures is former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who was only listed as a first choice by 5 percent of state Republicans despite his continued presence in the state.
27% of Republicans name Huckabee as their first choice compared to 16% for Romney, 14% for Trump, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Sarah Palin, 6% for Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, and 5% for Tim Pawlenty. …
If Huckabee ends up sitting this one out Romney will become the favorite in Iowa. In a Huckabee and Trump free field Romney leads with 25% to 15% each for Paul, Palin, and Gingrich, 10% for Bachmann and 9% for Pawlenty. If you take Palin out of the field too Romney stands at 28% to 19% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and 9% for Pawlenty.
Even if the other high-polling politicians choose to bow out in 2012, Romney, who hasn’t provided Iowa caucus-goers much ground time in 2011, will still need to win over the 63 percent of Iowans who automatically tossed him aside for signing health care reform legislation in Massachusetts.