Iowa 2012 Presidential Power Rankings: Social conservatives on the rise

At this point during the 2008 presidential contests, many Iowans had already formed their first impressions about a mostly solidified field of candidates. For the 2012 caucuses, which are now less than one year away, the lack of commitment being expressed by Republican politicians has rubbed off on supporters.

To be clear, most politically active Iowans — those who will attend their party caucus come what may — are already leaning toward specific ideals that they hope to find in a particular candidate. But full-throttle support of the potential candidates remains rather fickle, with perceptions changing based on recent politician appearances and messaging nuances.

It is no wonder then that following a two-week stint of events heavily tilted toward conservative voters who focus on social issues, our rankings reflect a rise in the fortunes of potential candidates who epitomize and best speak to those issues.

Perspectives have been culled from our staff members, additional state political reporters, party activists, academics, elected officials, political consultants and other insiders to create these rankings. While unscientific, the ranks provide insights that cannot be garnered in traditional polling or from any one pundit as to a candidate’s organizational strength in the Hawkeye State.

All those invited to participate are asked to answer one question: “If the Iowa caucus was held tonight, what would be the results?”

The rankings below provide a snapshot in time based on educated guesses and “gut instincts.” Campaigns, such as they are at this point in the 2012 season, were evaluated based on personal perceptions and input from others as to the quality of shoe-leather activity, ability to motivate possible caucus attendees and second-choice support.

If the Republican caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think it would end:

1. Mike Huckabee — For the second week in a row the pastor and former governor of Arkansas leads the way. Compared to our last set of rankings, however, when Huckabee was clearly the choice expressed by our panelists, his value significantly slips in this set.

   “Support for Huckabee, who is charismatic and identifies solidly with conservative values, remains strong in Iowa,” said one of our panelists. “There will come a time when he can no longer run on the favor he won in 2008. Supporters are looking for a candidate, and Iowa supporters understand probably better than any other national supporters that those who back a candidate early have the unique ability to help craft a national message — maybe not on the big issues, but definitely on some of these smaller areas where the candidate is looking for advice and insights.”

2. Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann — The two potential candidates from Minnesota are both polling strong among our panelists, and Bachmann’s move into exploratory territory made her gains truly remarkable and significant.

   Although both have pulled some support from Huckabee this time around, the vast majority of that support appears to go directly to Bachmann, which actually tells more about Pawlenty’s fortunes with social conservatives, who make up about 60 percent of GOP caucus-goers in Iowa.

   “Pawlenty isn’t showing up on any national radar screens,” one panelist said. “I predict that he’ll increase his efforts in Iowa even more as he hopes to use this state to establish a national platform and launch himself into the top tier of candidates nationally. Ultimately, though, the top candidates are the people who elicit passionate support — Pawlenty may struggle over the long run because of this.”

   If eliciting passion is the goal, then Bachmann has a very good chance of emerging as the victor.

   “Like [Sarah] Palin, Democrats have worked hard to demonize [Bachmann], but she remains a favorite of the tea party folks. Two positives are that she’s strong on social issues and has an Iowa connection. If Representative [Steve] King throws his support to her she could be a formidable candidate in the caucuses.”

   Interestingly, nearly all of our panelists who ranked Pawlenty and Bachmann high, also acknowledged that neither candidate is necessarily the ideal. For instance, Pawlenty was criticized roundly for his lack of charisma and foreign policy experience. Although he’s made connections with solid Iowa politicos to build his campaign, no one is ready to say that will be enough to push him to the top — and, ultimately, perhaps winning Iowa isn’t Pawlenty’s national strategy as much as just staying alive through the caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

   No one doubts that Bachmann is a hard-working politician who is capable of charming social conservatives and tea party activists. Her Achilles’ heel, according to our panelists is how she will play nationally and in competition with the presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

3. Newt Gingrich — Former U.S. House Speaker Gingrich remains a solid third in our second set of rankings with most pointing to his long-standing career and name recognition. But, like Bachmann, not all of our panelists are convinced that Gingrich could make the long haul to the White House.

   “Many Republicans will remember him for his success with the Contract with America and Republican takeover of Congress. He’s also seen as one of the top idea guys for the Republicans. Unfortunately, Democrats did a very effective job of demonizing him (much like they did to [Sarah] Palin, and what Republicans tried to do with [Nancy] Pelosi in 2010) back in the day. Plenty of folks will have forgotten all that, but it shouldn’t take that much effort to bring it all back up. That may not be particularly important for the caucuses, but a lot of Republicans will be looking forward to the general election. In other words, they will want to make sure that the person they choose for the caucuses has the best shot at beating Obama.”

   Another panelist notes that Gingrich and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum are “betting the entire farm on Iowa, but can’t get past the star power and street cred of Michele Bachmann.”

4. Ron Paul — Paul, like Huckabee, is known by most Iowans due to his foray into the 2008 contest. Unlike Huckabee, who most still don’t consider to be actually preparing for a 2012 election, Paul is making all the right noises. Not only does he still have some very passionate grassroots support, but he is making inroads with other Iowa demographics capable of increasing his worth in the Hawkeye State.

   “Paul has been courting the social conservative camp hard the last few weeks and, for the first time in his career, he’s acting like a politician who wants to be president. By palling around with Bob Vander Plaats and Christian homeschoolers, Paul loses a few young voters but more than makes up for it with with typical caucus-goers.”

5. Haley Barbour — Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour makes his first appearance in our rankings after spending time with party activists and making an appearance in Des Moines on behalf of the Iowa Renewal Project. By doing so, he rounds out our top five politicians who are all courting so-called “values voters” in Iowa.

   Barbour, who doesn’t expect to make a decision on the 2012 race until sometime next month, is a likable and well-known entity within the GOP. As many Republicans look back to what they believe were the golden days of conservatism under President Ronald Reagan, Barbour, who was a former adviser, is a natural by-product. His tenure at the helm of the Republican National Committee also indicates that he has been a proven and consistent fund-raiser.

   Most of our panelists are pleased by his recent trips into Iowa, and are convinced that he can gather more support in Iowa from those who are looking to the larger national stage. What Barbour doesn’t seem to have, according to our panelists is that “x-factor” quality, which makes Iowans passionate about caucusing. “Without such star power, and minus a fully fleshed organization in Iowa,” he’s going to find it difficult to move above fourth or fifth place.

Some of the politicians named by our panelists as people to watch in the coming weeks are Santorum, who at least two of our panelists believe is ready to make a significant move, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s followers continue to sit and wait.

“Don’t forget that Iowa is as much about developing a national strategy as it is about running. If Romney does decide to enter the race, but chooses not to actively compete in Iowa, his supporters can still help carve their candidate’s future by supporting a candidate Romney could easily best in New Hampshire or by down-playing a more credible candidate in Iowa.

“One thing is for sure, don’t count Romney out until he takes himself out.”