Here at Iowa Independent, we've been debating behind the scenes whether to call a time of death for Arizona Sen. John McCain's Iowa campaign. Some adamantly say yes, while others, including myself, have been a bit more reluctant. We've been following what surely looks like its demise here, here, here, and here.
Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University and frequent commentator at KCCI News came close to pronouncing McCain’s Iowa campaign dead in an interview with Iowa Independent. “If you say somebody that isn’t one two or three is not alive then it’s not alive at this point,” he said. “I wouldn’t call it yet but he’s certainly being close to being on life support.”
A Republican operative told me today that "The wheels are kind of falling off, and they just might drive that car to New Hampshire and South Carolina and leave Iowa in their exhaust."
Indeed, Marc Ambinder writes that the McCain campaign is seriously considering dropping out of Iowa:
That's according to a senior McCain adviser who has spoken with Rick Davis and other remnants of McCain's top campaign staff. The adviser said that the campaign's new early-state strategy was up for reconsideration, with some McCain allies pressing McCain to once again skip Iowa, putting all of his resources into New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Davis managed McCain's 2000 campaign, which, you'll remember, did not include competing in Iowa. Now that he's back in the reins after yesterday's massacre, and handling a campaign with so little money in the bank, it seems quite likely that McCain will skip the Iowa caucuses.
Dave Roederer, McCain's Iowa campaign chairman, told O.Kay Henderson he "doesn't believe" McCain will skip the Iowa caucuses in a "less-than-emphatic declaration," according to Henderson.
But leaving Iowa presents its own pitfalls. “If he bails, then it really sends a signal that the whole ship is going down,” Goldford said. “He’s in a tough spot.”
Additional evidence that McCain won't compete in Iowa: Jon Seaton, who became McCain's Iowa director only a week ago, is expected to quit in the next week, Ambinder reports. Then the campaign would have to find another director, but honestly, who would want the job?
“If he can’t get anybody to run things that certainly would be—you never say ‘never’—but that would certainly be a horrible blow to the campaign if you can’t get anybody to be here,” Goldford said. “That again by itself would sink it. That would be a major nail in the coffin.”
So is McCain finished in Iowa? Probably. This begins Iowa Independent's (belated) official death watch of McCain’s Iowa campaign.