Zeroing in on Iowa Voters: Microtargeting Might Help Mitt-Mobile

[Commentary] Via Jonathan Martin, Chris Cillizza has an interesting profile of Alex Gage, the brains behind the 2004 Bush campaign’s microtargeting efforts. Microtargeting is the practice of sending tailor-made messages to specific voters based on their buying habits and demographics, among other traits. Though often used in commercial marketing, it's now a frequent factor in politicking.

Gage has signed on with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and the presidential campaign intends to use microtargeting as part of its strategy in Iowa, Cillizza reports.

But will microtargeting work in the nation's first caucus? I think so and I'll tell you why below the fold.

The New York Times has already reported a bit about Romney’s microtargeting efforts in a story about his early ad buys:

Members of Mr. Romney’s media team say they are able to reach those who are already watching the presidential contenders closely by sophisticated microtargeting techniques, pioneered by the Bush campaign in 2004, that crunch through mountains of market research data.

[snip]

The data helps the campaign’s media buyers, he said, isolate specific programs and schedule their advertisements for times of the day when Republican primary-goers are more likely to be watching. The television show “24,” for example, has been a favorite of the campaign’s.

So a lot of Republicans in Iowa watch “24” – big deal, you say? With microtargeting, Gage and Romney will find out who these Republicans actually are — I would guess 18- to 35-year-old men. These guys will be called and sent Romney’s specific info on terrorism and national security. The campaign will find young Republican moms in Iowa by the food they buy or the cars they own. Then those women might get brochures touting Romney’s health care plan. Who’s concerned with immigration? Maybe it’s the crusty old men who subscribe to golf or fishing magazines. Or maybe it’s those young mothers who are actually worried more about immigration. In that case, they’ll get Romney calls and literature touting his proposals to strengthen the border.

The point is, even in lily-white Iowa, there is a diverse population of conservatives concerned with a variety of issues. And when campaigns tailor their message individually to voters, they are much more likely to attract supporters. Microtargeting socially conservative African-Americans, among other things, is often credited with winning Ohio for Bush and thus the presidential election in 2004. From Cillizza:

Nationwide [in 2004], Bush won 11 percent of the black vote, a two-point increase from 2000; in Ohio, he won 16 percent, an improvement of seven percentage points. Bush won Ohio by 118,601 votes, or approximately 2 percent of the more than 5.6 million votes cast for the two major-party nominees.

My old boss, Los Angeles Times reporter Tom Hamburger, also recounts the story of Felicia Hill, an African-American woman from Dayton, Ohio, who was vigorously courted by the Bush campaign. Even though she was a registered Democrat, the Bush campaign saw a potential convert. “She sends her children to private schools," Hamburger recalls. "She’s a member of a conservative Evangelical church. She is a member of a golf club and subscribes to golfing magazines." And after being “bombarded” with GOP talking points, “She told us she found herself subtly feeling for the first time that the Republican Party was a place where she could feel at home.”

The Iowa Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll in advance because it is difficult to determine who will actually show up. Microtargeting would allow campaigns to pinpoint supporters and increase their hard “1” counts, i.e., their guaranteed caucus supporters. And in the caucuses, where only a few additional supporters here and there can make the difference, microtargeting might be the trick that puts a candidate over the edge. If Gage can do for Romney in Iowa what he did for Bush in Ohio, then Romney has scored a major coup by bringing Gage aboard the Mitt-Mobile.