Handicapping the Lower-Tiered Republicans as They Battle for the Base

[Commentary] At Saturday’s Republican presidential candidate forum, sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief and the Iowa Christian Alliance, candidates spoke to the base, the hard core social conservatives and anti-tax Republicans that will likely choose the winner of the Iowa caucuses. Each candidate who spoke—and those that didn’t—said volumes not only about why they were running, but where they stood in the race with a month to go before the important Ames Straw Poll and about six months to go before the Iowa caucuses.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain were the only invited candidates who declined to attend. It was a smart move—they would have been booed to high heaven had they shown up. Candidates were asked six questions focused on tax increases, spending, the Fair Tax (which eliminates the IRS), same-sex marriage, stem cell research, and immigration. Giuliani and McCain hold, or have held, positions anathema to the forum’s sponsors and the conservative base, and the raucous crowd would have reminded them of that. Giuliani and McCain have also announced that they do not intend to participate in the Ames Straw Poll, another crucial event for grassroots conservatives. With these two absences, it is clear that they are not seriously campaigning to win the Iowa caucuses. They probably hope for a good showing near the top of the pack, but it is clear that they are downplaying the importance of the state.

If a forum winner has to be declared, a candidate that most excited the audience, it was probably Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo.  He started off a bit slow at first, decrying what he called “hyphenated conservatives” and implying that he’s the real deal. When he moved to immigration, his voice grew louder and quicker, and the crowd responded. “We’re becoming a cultural and linguistic Tower of Babel,” he said to applause. He transitioned from immigration to terrorism nicely while keeping the hint of racism. He said Europe wouldn’t save the United States from Islamic extremism. “The largest mosque in the world is being built in London,” he nearly shouted. “America is the last best hope for Western civilization. … This is our culture, fight for it. This is our flag, pick it up. This is our country, take it back.” A great line, and it received a huge standing ovation. It was red meat and the crowd gobbled it up. But in polls of likely caucus-goers, he rarely does better than one percent. Transforming these fans into caucus supporters is the hard part.

I’d call second place a tie for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, in part because both received a significant amount of applause and because their messages were so similar, if delivered differently. Both were very at home with their audiences. Huckabee, a former pastor, had some of the best lines of the forum. On gay marriage, “It’s easier to change the constitution than to change the word of Almighty God.” Transitioning from pro-life to anti-terror, he said, “Where we elevate and celebrate life, they elevate and celebrate death.” And on the Fair Tax, “I want to be the president of the United States that nails the 'going out of business' sign on the Internal Revenue Service.” Brownback sounded more like a regular politician. “We’ve got to get our spending under control. Republicans were fired because we didn’t stick with our principles and one of the core principles is spending.” He called gay marriage “a vast social experiment.” Brownback received his biggest applause at the end, when he lost the stiffness and seemed to speak from the heart. “Faith is a good thing. It’s not a bad thing. It should be encouraged and uplifted: a pillar in society, not run out of the public square.” Huckabee has a heck of a lot more charisma than Brownback, though Brownback may have better organization in Iowa. I’ve talked to Chase Martyn of Iowa Independent, and we think there is a good chance that both of them won’t make it past the Ames Straw Poll. They occupy too much shared space in the race as the true believers. Their raison d’être just aren’t that different. Huckabee, in fact, has already said that he would have to seriously assess the future of his campaign if he did not do well enough in the straw poll. August 11 might be judgment day.

I’m going to put former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson slightly above California Congressman Duncan Hunter in terms of performance. Thompson sounded all the right notes on taxes and social issues, though it felt heavy-handed. “I am a reliable conservative,” he said. “I am the true Republican, the true fiscal conservative…” I suppose the base doesn’t care much for subtlety; he received a fair amount of applause. From what I’ve heard and read, he was a decent governor and got himself reelected four times in blue Wisconsin. But it seems like the 1990s would have been a better time for him to run as something along the lines of a “solutions-oriented, Midwestern governor.” Now he seems pretty generic and hasn’t held elective office in six years. He has said the Ames Straw Poll is “very much a must-win” for his campaign or there is a good chance he’ll be going the way of the dodo. I think he has the chance to do well enough there; my guess is he won’t pull out unless he does quite poorly at Ames.

Hunter, who was last to speak and had lost some of the crowd, held his own when talking about immigration. “As president of the United States, I will finish [building] the fence in six months,” he said to applause. He focused primarily on foreign policy/national security, which is not surprising considering he was formerly Chair of the House Armed Services Committee and that seems to be the niche he is carving out for himself in the field. “The path that I’ll follow is the path that Ronald Reagan followed, of true strength,” he said. “As president of the United States, I will never allow Iran to have any nuclear device.” I thought national security had become the No. 1 issue for Republicans but Hunter doesn’t seem to be making much traction…

Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney places last, though that shouldn’t be surprising considering other candidates were gunning for him (especially on his pro-life record). And strangely, at the end of his speech, he said a bit awkwardly, “OK, I’m ready to answer these six questions now.” But according to the forum’s sponsors, he was supposed to have answered those questions during the speech. He dodged some of the economic questions and did not agree to the Fair Tax, which elicited a cool response. All that aside, I think Romney had one of the most compelling messages for conservatives about Ronald Reagan’s three stools supporting a strong military, strong economy, and strong family. It needs to be fine-tuned a bit but if this is a new part of his stump speech, he should keep it. It echoes Reagan and the basic principles of the conservative movement: strong national defense, limited spending/cut taxes, and family values. (What are the basic principles of the progressive movement again?)

Finally, Texas Congre
ssman Ron Paul, while not included in the official forum was very much a presence there. He had dozens of supporters protesting with signs and posters and then when he had his own rally, nearly 1,000 people showed up, according to the campaign. He connected with his crowd on the same level that Tancredo did at the forum. He received standing ovations after saying the Federal Reserve should be eliminated and after bashing the Iraq War and the Bush Administration. The crowd was energized. A campaign spokesman said they hope to get 10,000 supporters to vote in the Ames Straw Poll. If he could do that, which, honestly, seems to me unlikely, it could rocket him out of obscurity in the polls.

In the end, politics is an expectations game. Everyone is hoping to exceed the expectations that they—and the press—put on them. The Ames Straw Poll is a huge opportunity for lower-tiered Republican candidates to gain some momentum, get some positive press and maybe a bump in the polls, then a few more campaign donations, all of which go back into trying to keep the momentum going and exceeding expectations. But sometimes that just doesn’t happen. And that’s when the field thins out. I think we’ll see that happening after August 11.