Analysis: Vander Plaats support indicates judiciary high-risk areas

U.S. Rep. Steve King made it clear to those gathered at a Cedar Rapids rally last week that judges on Tueday’s ballot should be ousted because, in part, “it creates an opportunity for a new governor to appoint” replacements. Based on the timing of the November election and the directive of Iowa law, however, it could very well be that any replacements will be named by incumbent Gov. Chet Culver.

And an in-depth look at Iowa’s judicial districts reveals six that are most likely to see judges removed from the bench.

Social conservative groups, frustrated with a 2009 Iowa Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage in the state, began their calls for ouster of those justices directly responsible nearly immediately. The anti-judge rhetoric in Iowa has escalated in the months following the Republican gubernatorial primary, as former candidate Bob Vander Plaats has utilized out-of-state funding to launch an organization group to push for the the removal of the justices, and several other out-of-state conservative organizations have sought to influence local voters.

In addition, and during just the past few weeks, Chuck Hurley of the Iowa Family Policy Center has expanded the call by directing social conservatives to vote against every judge that appears on the 2010 ballot. According to Hurley, judges who did not speak out against the decision that legalized same-sex marriage should be removed, even if they had no direct association with the ruling. In addition, he hopes that by ousting all the judges the influence of social conservatives will be bolstered in the state.

On Tuesday, 74 judges, including three Supreme Court justices, will appear on ballots across the state. Of those justices, at least 60 percent were elevated to the bench by Republican governors. In fact, five that appear on the ballot trace their judicial roots to former Gov. Robert Ray, a Republican that served the state from 1969 to 1982. Two of the three Iowa Supreme Court justices that appear on the ballot were elevated to the bench by Gov. Terry Branstad, and none of the three were appointed by Culver.

“This is what doesn’t make much sense. We keep hearing those who want to oust the judges talk about replacing these ‘liberal’ and ‘activist’ people with someone appointed by Terry Branstad. But the truth is that many of those they supposedly want to oust were already appointed by Terry Branstad when he previously served as governor,” said someone close to a pro-retention group that would only speak under a condition of anonymity.

“What they are actually going to do — if the governor’s election ends Culver’s career –  is replace judges that were appointed by Republican governors with individuals that will be appointed by a lame-duck Democratic governor, who likely won’t have any qualms about selecting the most left-leaning candidate put forth by the nominating commissions.”

Iowa’s existing judicial nominating process allows for commissions — represented by an equal number of lay people, who are appointed by the governor with approval from the Iowa Senate, and attorneys, who are elected by members of the Iowa Bar Association — to review applications and winnow the field of candidates. That short list is then sent to the Office of the Governor for final selection. If the governor fails to appoint within 30 days of receiving the short list, the Chief Justice of the Iowa Supreme Court is required to name a replacement.

Iowa voters are given an opportunity to vote on the retention of new judges after that person has served one full year on the bench. So, any appointments made in late 2010 or early 2011 by Culver would not come back before voters until the 2012 general election.

Internal polling, according to the source, appears to show that somewhere between 20 and 30 judges will be denied retention on Tuesday. While exact names and regions were not disclosed, The Iowa Independent was told that the judges most at risk represent areas where GOP voters are more active and where the Vander Plaats gubernatorial campaign had strong showing during the June primaries.

A new Iowa Poll released Sunday by The Des Moines Register shows that 37 percent of likely Iowa voters now plan to vote for removal of three Iowa Supreme Court justices, but does not ask voters to voice their intention toward other judges that appear on the ballot.

This map of Iowa counties, divided by the Judicial Branch election districts. Counties in red are where Republicans hold a strong active voter base. Blue counties are those with a strong Democratic active voter base. When the numbers of active voters between the two parties are 250 or less, the county is purple on the map. Yellow stars represent counties that Bob Vander Plaats won during the GOP gubernatorial primary. Orange stars represent counties where the combined total votes earned by Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts was greater than the votes earned by nominee Terry Branstad.

Iowa Supreme Court justices and judges on the Iowa Court of Appeals that are standing for retention in 2010 appear on all ballots statewide. Within the district court are six types of judicial officers — district judges, district associate judges, associate juvenile judges, associate probate judges, senior judges and magistrates. Judges at this level appear only on the ballots within the region they serve. (More information on the specific duties of each type of judicial officer is available on the Judicial Branch’s website.)

Any judge who is denied retention by voters will continue to serve until Dec. 31. State law, contained in Chapter 46 of the Iowa Code, provides very specific guidelines in relation to the nominating commissions, retention elections and replacement of judges. Once the official results of the November elections are known, the Iowa Secretary of State is required to immediately notify the chairpersons of the judicial nominating conventions of any judges that have not been retained. That chairperson is then required to call a meeting of the commission within 10 days, so that the group can begin gathering applications, reviewing qualifications and interviewing perspective judiciary candidates.

Based on active voter registrations and counties where social conservative candidates have historically found support, The Iowa Independent has identified six judicial election districts where judges are likely to receive significant scrutiny by voters.

Judicial election district 8A is comprised of 10 counties in southeastern Iowa.

Perhaps the most unexpected area in our list is District 8A, which is located in southeastern Iowa. Three district judges and two district associate judges are standing for retention here.

Although much of eastern Iowa is known as leaning blue, this particular region is home to a slight GOP active voter advantage, and more independent (no-party) active voters than registered Democrats. While it is true that a portion of this district was able to fend off out-of-state advertising interests focusing on same-sex marriage during a special Iowa House election in 2009, it is also true that the majority of Republicans in each of these 10 counties supported predominantly social conservative candidates during the gubernatorial primary and also in the 2008 presidential caucus. During the 2010 primary, five of the counties were carried by Bob Vander Plaats, who is now the primary statewide advocate for ousting Iowa judges. When Roberts’ vote total is added to that of Vander Plaats, Branstad, who was widely considered a better choice for fiscal conservatives, did not carry a single county.

Although this judicial district is split by 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts, there are competitive races in each that will also be appearing on the November ballot. Energized 2nd District Republicans are especially aware that recent polling has shown the race between Republican challenger Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack as a dead heat.

Democratic hopes lie primarily within Wapello County, where almost a third of the region’s active voters within that party reside. Wapello County is also known as being a stronghold of organized labor, and it remains to be seen exactly how energized those advocates are to support Culver’s re-election bid or that of local candidates that failed to promote and pass labor-friendly legislation.

Judicial election district 5A is located in central Iowa and encompasses six counties.

Another perhaps unexpected watch region for the Iowa Judiciary is in the six counties in central Iowa. The outcome of this fight will mostly be decided by the two powerhouse counties: Dallas and Warren.

Dallas County is Republican stronghold of active voters where nearly everyone who has registered has chosen a team. Republicans outnumber Democrats in this county by 4,000 active voters, while only 1,600 residents are up for grabs as active no-party voters.

In Warren County, Democrats only slightly outnumber Republicans, 10,336 to 9,940. What Democrats have in their favor is a large pool of more than 10,000 active no-party voters that have historically leaned to the left.

Like the counties in the 8th Judicial District, however, active Republicans in each of the six counties that make up this election district trended toward socially conservative candidates. Vander Plaats carried four counties during the primary, and his votes combined with Roberts were enough to carry the remaining two.

During the primary, which Republican Party of Iowa officials hailed as an example of an energized base, local party officials in these six counties turned out less than half of their active voter base. This was especially true in Dallas County, where roughly one-third of historically active Republicans made time to vote. If that trend continues into the general election, it will not only be smooth sailing for judges standing for retention, but a major boost for statewide and local Democratic candidates.

Judicial election district 4 is located in Iowa's southwest corn and is comprised of nine counties.

District 4 is unusual for this list because neither Vander Plaats nor a combination votes earned by Vander Plaats and Roberts was enough to carry a single county. It is here because active Republican voters in this region outnumber active Democratic voters by more than 16,000. While there is also a significant pool of nearly 40,000 active no-party voters, most have historically trended toward Republican candidates and causes.

Republican voters in this region gave resounding support to Branstad during the primary. In the largest county in the region, Pottawattamie, Republican voters were three times more likely to support Branstad than they were Vander Plaats or Roberts. The fact that Branstad has refused to take sides in the battle over judicial retention may weigh more heavily in this predominantly rural region than it would in more urban spaces. And while the vote tallies from this area might not be enough to make a difference in larger statewide races, it could very well be that the three district judges and two district associate judges on the ballot might be stung.

Judicial election district 2A is made up of 13 counties in north-central Iowa.

Active Republican voters in the 13 counties that make up Judicial election district 2B have a roughly 1,500 vote advantage over active Democrats. Although active no-party voters are the largest voting block, they’ve historically voted with the existing governing base, which is evenly split population-wise in this area.

While it is true that Vander Plaats and Roberts found significant support in this region, it is also well worth mentioning that many voters may have been pulling for the “hometown boy.” Roberts currently represents Carroll county, which was the only of Iowa’s 99 counties to vote overwhelmingly for him during the primary gubernatorial contests.

Voters in this region will decide whether or not to retain one district judge, one district associate judge and two associate juvenile judges.

Judicial election district 3A is located in northwestern Iowa and contains 10 counties.

This is another judicial region where active Republican voters significantly outnumber active Democratic voters, and also where those active Republican voters trend toward supporting more social conservative candidates and issues. Active Republicans hold more than a 13,000 vote advantage over Democrats, and have the luxury of a large pool of no-party voters that trend to the right. In fact, three of the counties that carried for Branstad are the more rural counties where Democrats hold an active-voter advantage.

Voters in this region will decide the fate of two district judges and one associate juvenile judge.

Six counties in northwestern Iowa comprise judicial election district 3B.

Active Republicans in this region, most of them residents of Sioux and Woodbury counties, maintain a more than 16,000 vote advantage over active Democrats. And while there is a pool of more than 35,000 no-party voters, they have historically voted for conservative candidates and socially conservative issues.

Although Branstad carried both Ida and Crawford counties in the gubernatorial primary, the combined votes garnered by Vander Plaats and Roberts in those counties nearly matched the Branstad totals. Likewise, active Democrats hold only a slight advantage in both Woodbury and Monona counties, and are often dwarfed at the polls when independents vote alongside Republicans.

Three district judges and one associate juvenile judge are standing for retention in this region.