In swing state Iowa, Dallas County is key

By most accounts, Iowa will be a key state in deciding who will be the next president, and the fight could begin and end in Dallas County, the fastest growing county in the state.

New homes replace farmland in Dallas County as suburbs grow on the west side of Des Moines. Photo courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The county, which is west of Des Moines, has trended Republican in recent years, and today there are only two elected Democrats countywide. But with a large contingent of registered independents and a re-energized Democratic Party across the state, Barack Obama’s supporters have hope that the tide may be turning.

“If Obama can keep the vote close in Dallas County, that’s a win,” said Gordon Fischer, former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party. “It’s a county the Republicans are used to racking up a big margin in, but I think this year could be different. When it’s all said and done, I think both parties will look at Dallas County as the place where it was decided.”

In 2004, President Bush carried Iowa by 10,000 votes, fewer than 1 percent of the total votes cast. Half of that margin came from Dallas County.

Most polls indicate that Iowa as a whole still leans in Obama’s direction. A recent Pollster.com survey showed the Illinois senator with a 48-42 lead over Republican John McCain. But the race has tightened, with National Public Radio (NPR) calling Iowa a tossup and a recent Rasmussen poll showing Obama’s lead slipping from 9 percentage points to 5, all of which makes it even more likely that the voters of Dallas County will play a big part in picking the statewide winner.

In Dallas County, the question is whether Obama’s campaign can extend a statewide trend toward the Democrats into precincts where the GOP typically drives up large margins. In 2004, there were 11,534 registered Republicans to 8,761 registered Democrats, an advantage of 2,773. Another 13,702 independents choose “No Party” as their affiliation. As of Aug. 1, 2008, Republicans still outnumbered Democrats 12,749 to 10,829, with 14,634 No Party voters, meaning the Democrats had gained 850 voters. That follows the trend in Iowa as a whole, where there are now 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Interviews with Dallas County voters by the Iowa Independent paint a picture of a county with a split personality. To the east sit the suburbs of Des Moines, with their strip malls, taupe-colored cookie-cutter subdivisions and commuter lifestyles. In the western portions of the county, sparsely populated towns like Redfield and Minburn are surrounded by fields of corn and soybeans, not to mention a concern that the “sprawl” that has moved into cities like Waukee, West Des Moines and Urbandale will one day reach them.

“They’re worried about their farmland being gobbled up by developers,” said Ralph Watts, a Republican who has represented most of Dallas County in the state Legislature for six years and who has lived in Adel since the late 1960s. “You have one of the fastest-growing areas in the Midwest and you have towns that are about as rural as you can get all in the space of about 25 miles. And there are big differences in the issues they care about.”

The majority of the growth is happening in places like Waukee, on the eastern edge of Dallas County, where the population grew 119 percent since 2000 and which added more than 1,100 dwellers between 2006 and 2007. Its population now has soared past 12,000.

Along Highway 6 through the heart of Waukee, residential and commercial developments are popping up all around, and many residents are racing to catch up. Schools are faced with exploding enrollment, once rural landscapes are replaced with new homes and a once sleepy town braces for more growth.

Most voters who were interviewed from these rapidly growing suburbs cited economic concerns as the No. 1 factor in their decision of who to support for the presidency. Democrats have hoped to use McCain’s opposition to the farm bill and ethanol subsidies to their advantage in Iowa, but those issues have taken a back seat to concerns that directly affect pocketbooks.

“I think everyone’s thoughts are focused on the economy and the housing market,” said Vickie McCarthy, a school teacher from Waukee. “People are concerned about the changes to their lifestyle, gas prices and providing for their families.”

Farther down the highway, past the construction sites and strip malls, the rural scenes of Iowa once again take over. Out here, zoning laws governing the placement of hog lots are just as important to voters as tax policy. Whereas in Waukee, student enrollment has more than doubled over the past decade, surging from 2,128 in 1999 to 5,443 last year, in these rural cities and townships, dipping population has led to districts merging to save money on repairs to aging facilities.

Todd Vance, who lives in rural western Dallas County, said he does hear a lot of concerns from farmers about McCain’s opposition to the farm bill, but most of the people he talks to are focused on national security and worries about future acts of terrorism.

“Social issues, too, like gay marriage and abortion,” he said. “Those are big.”

Other voters shared the same sentiment.

Jordan Creek Town Center, a 200-acre shopping center on the Dallas County side of West Des Moines.

While walking into Jordan Creek Town Center, a 200-acre shopping center in the Dallas County portion of West Des Moines, Tammy Whitman said Christian, conservative values are predominate.

“That’s the kind of candidate we’re looking for,” she said. “Someone who shares our values.”

For Dallas County Republicans voting in the Iowa caucuses last January, that someone was not John McCain. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a darling of social conservatives, shared victory with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, both garnering 32 percent of the vote. McCain came in a distant third with 13 percent.

For these socially conservative voters, McCain’s choice for vice president could go a long way to endear him to their hearts. Most mentioned it when discussing the candidates, with Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty seeming to be the favorite.

But Ralph Brown, an attorney from Dallas Center who served as Republican county chair in the mid-80s, said he doubts so-called social conservatives will end up voting for Obama if they aren’t happy with McCain’s vice presidential pick.

“Maybe they wouldn’t turn out, but I think all Iowans understand how important their role in this election is and will weigh their vote very seriously,” he said. “I’ve heard people say how much the vice president pick will affect their vote, but I don’t see that happening.”

People seem to be talking a lot about experience, Brown said, and who they feel “comfortable with as a leader.”

“These are uncertain times,” he said. “With the economy and with foreign policy, people want someone they feel confident in.”

In conversations with voters, Obama’s race was never brought up. Demographically, Dallas County is 94.7 percent is white, which is almost exactly the same as Iowa as a whole (93.9 percent). Obama received a huge bump nationally when he was victorious in the Iowa caucuses, with many saying it proved that white voters would support a black candidate.

“I don’t think anyone is using race as a factor,” Whitman said. “I think Iowa is a very open state in that regard. I mean, he’s already won here.”

Fischer, an early supporter of Obama’s, said he’s confident that the Democrat can do well in Dallas County despite its history of supporting Republicans.

“If you look, there are a lot of registered independents,” he said. “I think Obama is the type of candidate that will appeal to moderate Republicans and independents, so he should do well.”

Watts, the Republican legislator, said the high number of voters registered as independents can be deceiving.

“I think a lot of voters who register as independents are actually more conservative than the ones who register as Republicans,” he said.

Beth Dalbey, former editor of The Dallas County News in Adel, agrees.

“I think even those who register as independents still lean to the right,” she said. “I think the thing you see in Dallas County is that the more conservative branch of the Republican Party is in control and has been for quite a while.”

Watts said he is confident McCain and the Republicans will once again carry Dallas County.

“I’m very confident,” he said. “This is a very Republican county. No doubt about it.”

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