GOP primary poll sends mixed signals

With the release of the only public poll so far of the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary, Iowans get their first real snapshot of the race to take on incumbent Gov. Chet Culver. But even though the poll shows former Gov. Terry Branstad with a healthy double-digit lead over his closest rival, his failure to get more than 50 percent and his reliance on older voters has some wondering if there is a surprise in store next Tuesday.

Terry Branstad (photo by Dave Davidson, www.TEApublican.com)

The poll, which was commissioned by the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, found Branstad with a 15-percentage point lead over Bob Vander Plaats, 46-31. The firm concluded that the key to a Vander Plaats victory will be improving his name recognition, since among voters who actually know who Vander Plaats is — whether they see him favorably or unfavorably — he leads Branstad 42-37.

“The question is if there’s enough time left for Vander Plaats to completely make up the huge gap in name recognition he began the campaign with,” said PPP’s Tom Jensen.

Steve Grubbs, a veteran Republican strategist and president of the Davenport-based consulting firm Victory Enterprises Inc., said in an interview with The Iowa Independent that the new polling is very similar to what he’s seen in internal surveys done by his company. With only a week to go before the primary, it will be very difficult for Vander Plaats to build a strong name for himself and overcome that margin.

“It really costs somewhere between $1 million and $2 million to build a statewide name ID,” Grubbs said. “Even though he’s run for governor three times now, he’s never put up more than half a million dollars into an ad buy.”

So while a Branstad victory is in no way inevitable, since Grubbs said he has seen “way too many elections change in the last few days,” the odds are “strongly in Branstad’s favor.”

“The fact that Branstad is under 50 percent probably gives Vander Plaats a glimmer of hope,” he said. “But our projections are that 18-40 year-old voters will make up about 18 percent of the electorate on June 8. The rest will be older than 40.”

Those numbers are significant, since Branstad has a commanding lead with senior citizens but is tied among voters younger than 45, according to the PPP poll.

Christian radio host and Vander Plaats supporter Steve Deace told The Iowa Independent the fact that Branstad is under 50 percent despite outspending “20 other Republicans on the ballot in all the races for State Treasurer, Secretary of State, contested congressional primaries, and his gubernatorial rivals combined by more than two-to-one” speaks volumes. Ultimately, the outcome will be decided by who turns out to vote next Tuesday.

“Branstad’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep, which is why his campaign is spending so much money in the primary when they’d rather save it for Culver,” Deace said. “This race is a referendum on the voters and not the candidates.  If older, establishment Republicans show up at the polls in droves Branstad will win by as many as 10 points.  If the tea partiers, Constitutionalists and Christians show up like they have elsewhere in the country this year, Vander Plaats will pull the upset.”

Democrats have also latched on the polling. They have long focused their attacks on Branstad, seen as the front-runner and most difficult general election candidate by most observers, and upon release of PPP’s poll, the Iowa Democratic Party released a statement pointing out Branstad’s numbers have fallen 15 percent from an internal poll leaked to the media in January.

Jeff Patch, a long-time Republican activist and former press secretary for U.S. Rep. Tom Latham, said that even though Vander Plaats has waged an “energetic campaign,” his “war chest will simply not be enough to beat Branstad, who has run a well-funded, disciplined campaign.”

“Vander Plaats has been running for governor for nearly a decade, but one in three likely Republican primary voters still have no opinion of him,” Patch said.

Liberal blogger John Deeth wonders if supporters of Rod Roberts, who garners 13 percent in PPP’s poll, will see the numbers and “bail on him” for another candidate. Most assume those voters would inevitably end up supporting Vander Plaats.

But Grubbs said a vast majority of voters aren’t that strategic with their votes.

“Most people don’t over analyze an election,” he said. “They don’t think strategically, they simply pick the person they like and vote for them.”

Vander Plaats has not surrendered anything, though. In addition to launching his second TV ad of the primary campaign last week focusing on difference with Branstad, he will embark on a statewide tour with action-movie star Chuck Norris later this week. The tour is similar to one former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee went on with Norris just before his surprise victory in the Iowa Presidential Caucuses.