GOP race for governor takes on feel of 2008 caucuses

It certainly looks like a movie Iowans have seen before: A prominent, well-funded former governor who is having problems wooing his party’s evangelical base taking on a social conservative underdog running a cash-strapped effort. Even the supporting cast is the same, right down to Chuck Norris.

The comparisons between this year’s Republican gubernatorial primary, with Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats and former Gov. Terry Branstad as the frontrunners, and the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses, where former governors Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney squared off, are many. The biggest similarity, ultimately, is that the race represents a fork in the road for the Republican Party of Iowa, observers say, with voters facing stark differences in choosing the de facto leader of their party.

“The 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary runs parallel to the Romney/Huckabee match-up insomuch as the internal struggle for control of the party remains,” said Graham Gillette, who runs a public affairs/communications firm and occasionally blogs for The Des Moines Register. “The players are different. The campaign strategies being employed are not like 2008. But, ideology is driving the race as it did the 2008 Caucuses.”

Vander Plaats’ campaign is being run by Eric Woolson, who helped steer Huckabee to a caucus victory in 2008. In fact, Vander Plaats served as Huckabee’s state chair, and the former Arkansas governor has endorsed and repeatedly campaigned on Vander Plaats’ behalf.

Branstad remained neutral during the caucuses, but his staff is made up of numerous former Romney aides, including his spokesman, Tim Albrecht, his main fundraiser, Nicole Schlinger, and the person who put together the “Draft Branstad PAC,” Sandy Greiner, among others. But Doug Gross, Branstad’s former chief of staff and longtime adviser, represents Branstad’s closest ties to Romney. In fact, the two of them sat down with the former Massachusetts governor when he visited Iowa last week.

In an interview with The National Journal, Gross admitted it was the 2008 Caucus results that eventually led to him asking Branstad to join the 2010 campaign. Gross, who has repeatedly expressed his fear that social conservatives were steering the party more and more rightward and alienating moderate voters, vowed to do something about it.

“If we let a minority control a minority party, we’ll always be a minority,” Gross told The National Journal. “And that was a problem.”

Christopher Larimer, a professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa, said the division between social conservatives and more moderate voters is something the GOP has had to deal with for a long time.

“That’s where the parallels to 2008 start,” he said. “For Republicans, this will likely be consistent over time.”

Differences emerge

But the comparisons seem to go much deeper. The type of criticism that plagued Romney in the lead up to the caucuses is also attached to Branstad. Social conservatives don’t fully believe he is one of them, especially when it comes to same-sex marriage, an issue that Branstad has had trouble handling since officially entering the race earlier this year. Branstad appointed the Iowa Supreme Court Justice that penned last April’s decision legalizing same-sex marriage. All this motivated the influential Christian organization Iowa Family Policy Center to not only endorse Vander Plaats but also pledge to sit out the campaign if Branstad is the nominee.

In addition, Iowa Democrats have tried to label Branstad a flip flopper, most recently for his perceived previous support of an individual mandate to buy health insurance, an issue that is also plaguing Romney.

Vander Plaats also faces a problem his 2008 counterpart faced: The perception that he can’t win a general election. Both men appeal most to the GOP’s base, which tends to turn out in higher proportion in primaries and caucuses. Despite polling that shows Vander Plaats with a lead over Culver in head-to-head matchups, many still believe that a Vander Plaats victory in the primary could be a blessing for troubled incumbent Gov. Chet Culver, who loses to Branstad by much larger margins in the head-to-head polls.

But beyond the initial glance, the 2010 campaign takes on it’s own identity.

“While the comparisons are obvious, and somewhat appropriate given the fact that those closest to Terry Branstad seem driven to extract some misguided version of vengeance on their own base because of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, the reality is that both Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats are better candidates than either Romney or Huckabee were in 2008,” said Christian radio host Steve Deace, a Huckabee and Vander Plaats supporter. “Vander Plaats has already staked out bold territory on issues conservatives care deeply about that Huckabee, for all of his obvious positives as a candidate, never came close to approaching.”

Deace pointed to Vander Plaat’s campaign pledge to take on the courts as an example. Vander Plaats has promised to issue an executive order putting a stay on the Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage decision until the legislature allows a popular vote on a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman. Constitutional scholars, and his fellow Republicans, have said the governor doesn’t have such authority, and even Vander Plaats has admitted he’ll likely face impeachment over his stand.

But the differences from 2008 don’t stop with Vander Plaats, Deace said.

“Branstad is a man of much greater stature with Iowans than Romney ever was or ever will be because of his previous years in office,” Deace said. “He also doesn’t seem to be hiding from his past liberal record like Romney did, but is instead making the pragmatic argument that he can win and make the trains run on time so his liberal record is irrelevant.”

Deace said Branstad hasn’t opened himself up to the “flip-flopper” label as much as Romney has, mostly by spending much less time attempting to convince the base of his conservative credentials.

“It remains to be seen if [Branstad's strategy] will ultimately be successful on June 8, but if it is it means that conservatives risk being permanently marginalized by the Republican Party both here in Iowa and nationally with the 2012 Caucuses just around the corner,” Deace said. “Which, by the way, is what I believe some of those closest to Branstad are really after.”

A Vander Plaats victory would make Iowa much less hospitable in 2012 for Romney, who is widely considered to be considering another run for the presidency, Larimer said. Online news site Politico has dubbed the decision he must make on whether to once again campaign in the Hawkeye State “Romney’s Riddle.”

“I think a Vander Plaats victory would put someone like Mike Huckabee in great shape for 2012,” Larimer said. “For Romney, I think he’d seriously consider skipping Iowa, and people are already giving him that advice.”

The third man in the race

Of course, the biggest difference in 2010 is that Republicans have a viable third option in state Rep. Rod Roberts of Carroll. While his bid for the GOP nomination is a long shot, and many observers say his presence in the race will benefit Branstad since he appeals to the same type of evangelical voters Vander Plaats is depending on, recent polling shows his candidacy is not a fluke. And his dedication to the race is evident by giving up his seat in the Iowa House to focus on the gubernatorial campaign.

As all three men running for governor face off in the first of three debates Wednesday afternoon, offering most Iowans their first chance to size up the men hoping to unseat incumbent Democratic Gov. Chet Culver, Roberts stands to benefit most from the exposure, offering him the chance to break out and position himself as the consensus candidate for voters who don’t line up with either Vander Plaats or Branstad.

The other big difference is that the 2010 race will be decided by primary, not caucus. Caucuses are low-turnout affairs that are dominated by the party’s base. While off-year primaries are also low turnout, they are still bigger than caucuses. In 2006, about 148,000 Iowans voted in the hard-fought Democratic gubernatorial primary. In 2002, around 199,000 Iowans voted in the three-way GOP gubernatorial primary. Only around 114,000 people took part in the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses.

Gillette said at the end of the day, the June 8 contest will be all about turnout.

“Huckabee and Vander Plaats appeal to a fervent base of rightwing voters,” he said. “These people vote regularly.  Romney and Branstad are more attractive to mainstream voters who tend to participate less in party elections and activities.  If Branstad fails to turn out primary voters who lean more toward the middle of the political spectrum and voter participation is low, Vander Plaats wins.”

In addition to turnout, the rules of the caucuses favor candidates like Huckabee and Vander Plaats. There is no early voting or absentee ballots, and to vote a person has to be present at a polling place at a particular time. This favors the candidate with passionate supporters, and can allow someone with few resources to compete. In a primary, with far easier rules to participate, money and name recognition is much more difficult to overcome.

Ultimately, Branstad is still the favorite and will likely win, Gillette said, but “that is what most said about Romney in 2008.”