When presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani and John McCain announced they would not participate in the Ames Straw Poll, they put “a big question mark” in front of their ability to compete in the Iowa Caucuses, according to an Iowa GOP spokeswoman. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney seems to have been handed the Ames victory on a platter, though a Romney spokesman warned that the road to the Iowa Caucuses is still a long one.

“This is part of the process – it's a part of voter turnout,” said Mary Tiffany, communications director for the Republican Party of Iowa. “Typically, the straw poll goers are caucus goers. … I think this puts a big question mark in front of [Giuliani’s and McCain’s Iowa campaigns].” Tiffany declined to say whom she thought benefited most and said the field was “wide open.”

Withdrawing from the Ames Straw Poll does not mean that Sen. John McCain of Arizona is ceding the Iowa Caucuses, according to Tim Miller, a McCain spokesman. “Absolutely not,” he said. “We intend to compete, and we intend to win.” Miller said McCain has placed more staff in Iowa than in any other state and that he would be campaigning at an Iowa town hall meeting this weekend.

Miller said that the McCain campaign did not believe the straw poll would be an accurate gauge of support with Giuliani out and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee also likely to skip the poll. “It’s not going to be a meaningful show of grassroots support when you have a lot of the top contenders not participating,” Miller said. “We determined that resources could be better spent elsewhere.”

Jarrod Agen, a spokesman for Giuliani echoed that statement. "We felt that the resources" could be better spent, Agen said, if they were "put towards winning the caucuses." He also said that this was part of a campaign's decision not to participate in any straw poll across the country, like those in South Carolina and Illinois, though he admitted that the Ames poll is the most prestigious.

Agen also said that former New York Mayor Giuliani is committed to participating in the Iowa Caucuses. "Oh yeah, we have every intention of winning the Iowa Caucuses," he said. "We're building a staff, building a grassroots organization … We certainly intend to campaign in and win the Iowa Caucuses." Agen noted that the candidate opened up a campaign office in Des Moines today and named Paul Pate, former Iowa secretary of state, as his campaign's Iowa chairman.
A spokesman for Romney said that McCain and Giuliani withdrew because their campaigns in Iowa were floundering. “Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their messages are falling flat,” said Romney spokesman Tim Albrecht. “I believe they could possibly look at the caucuses the same way.”

“It’s an important part of the process, an important event for the party,” Albrecht said. “Most of those activists are going to go to the caucuses.” Albrecht said the Iowa GOP expects 50,000 people to participate; 85,000 people attended the caucuses in 2000. He wondered whether “half the caucus electorate” would remember in January what happened in August.

With Giuliani and McCain out, the significance of the Ames Straw Poll is likely lessened. Albrecht agreed that his boss is "probably expected" to win the straw poll now. "We beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than they had planned," he said.

Albrecht credited Romney’s organization in the state, which he said reached all 99 counties and encompassed conservatives of all kinds. “We have a wide array of supporters across the Republican spectrum … that believe in Gov. Romney’s conservative message,” he said. While it's too early to predict how the Iowa Caucuses would turn out, he said, “Gov. Romney has put in the time, he’s built the organization, and communicated his message of bringing conservative change to Washington — and that’s resonating with Iowan voters.”

Also, be sure to check out Chris Woods' commentary on the future of the straw poll.