Lawmakers will have a more accurate picture of just how big of a budget deficit they will need to close when the state’s Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) updates its forecast Thursday.
By law, the REC prediction determines how much the legislature can spend in a given year. Going into the session, the state faced an estimated $1 billion budget gap. But following several steps taken this session — an executive order signed by Gov. Chet Culver that implemented numerous cost-saving suggestions from a private consultant, an early retirement package for state employees and a government reorganization bill — most expect lawmakers to be left with $200 million to fill during budget deliberations.
State budget director Dick Oshlo, who is one of the three REC members, told The Des Moines Register last week that lawmakers shouldn’t get their hopes up that revenue projections will shrink the budget hole, saying if there was any improvement, “it’s not going to be major.”
Legislative leaders and the governor have repeatedly ruled out any tax increase to help offset falling revenues, leaving cuts as the only way forward to balance the budget for FY2011, which starts July 1. Several economic analysts told The Iowa Independent that relying on cuts would balance the budget but could actually do long-term harm to the state’s economy and delay recovery.