Colorado Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter announcing his retirement Wednesday caused the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza to wonder aloud if Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland) could be next.
The comparison, though, isn’t as clear cut as Cillizza would like to believe.
From Cillizza’s blog:
Chet Culver/Ted Strickland: A cold chill almost certainly went down the spines of the governors of Iowa and Ohio when they heard about Ritter’s retirement. Both Culver, in Iowa, and Strickland, in Ohio, find themselves in positions similar to Ritter — once considered unbeatable they have seen their state’s faltering economies (and their responses to it) erode their popular support. Do one or both men reconsider their re-election plans as a result?
For starters, I can’t remember Culver ever being considered “unbeatable,” but his popularity has certainly taken a nose dive over the course of the last year, with the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll finding the first-term Democrat with a 40 percent approval rating in November.
The comparison to Ritter goes deeper than just plummeting approval ratings. Both have also had a prickly relationship with organized labor, traditionally considered the base of the Democratic Party. Culver drew labor’s ire when he vetoed an expansion of collective bargaining rights back in 2008, and in 2007 Ritter struck down a bill making it easier for workers to form unions.
But where Culver has made some efforts to repair his relationship with labor, namely coming out strongly in support of prevailing wage legislation during the 2009 General Assembly (even though he spoke out after the bill was considered dead), Ritter vetoed two more labor-backed bills during 2009. Those vetoes resulted in union members protesting the governor with signs asking, “Why does Ritter hate working families?”
The other big difference is the Republican opposition. Ritter knew who his likely Republican opponent was going to be, as former Colorado Congressman Scott McInnis had emerged as the clear front runner. For Culver, Republicans are looking at a contentious primary that as of now has four potential candidates. While he is losing to two of the four candidates in recent polls, the uncertainty of who he will face off with in November (and how damaged that candidate is after a bloody primary) will likely keep him in the race.
Iowa is also a more hospitable climate for Culver than Colorado was for Ritter. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in Iowa by more than 100,000 voters. In Colorado, the parties are nearly even in registered voters.
So, while Culver is certainly in danger, the likelihood that he will retire instead of seeking re-election is incredibly remote.