Political prognosticator Nate Silver ranked the senate seats up for grabs in 2010, and while U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley is still considered a favorite, Roxanne Conlin’s entrance into the campaign has made things “semi-interesting.”
Silver, who earned his political forecasting stripes during the 2008 presidential campaign, ranked the Iowa race as 16th most likely to change hands out of 38 races.
Here’s Silver’s analysis:
16. Iowa (R-Grassley) — Democrats have gotten a semi-interesting candidate in the form of Roxanne Conlin, who has 73 percent name recognition in Iowa. Although Grassley, who had built up a large reservoir of goodwill, has probably not hurt himself quite enough to lose, the health care fight undermined his brand as a bipartisan dealmaker. This race deserves more polling.