Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.
A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.
The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.
The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.
A recent Des Moines Register Iowa Poll found Gov. Chet Culver’s approval rating had dipped to a new low in November, with only 40 percent approving of the job the Democrat is doing.
Survey USA polls found the governor’s approval falling from 57 percent in December 2008 to 41 percent in September.
When asked where they fall politically, the Iowa Poll found 43 percent of Iowans consider themselves conservative, 36 percent say they are moderate and 17 percent say they are liberal.
For a party completely shut out of power since the 2006 elections gave control of both legislative chambers and Terrace Hill to the Democrats, Iowa Republicans are looking at the recent polling and see an opportunity for resurgence in 2010.
But the optimism is laced with a healthy degree of realism. Political observers agree that the Republican Party of Iowa has a long way to go before it can be truly confident of its chances, and there is plenty of time for Democrats to regain momentum.
And recent Democratic victories in special legislative elections around the state demonstrate that the party can be successful in spite of bad poll numbers.
Steve Grubbs, a veteran Republican strategist and president of the Davenport-based consulting firm Victory Enterprises Inc., said he hasn’t seen his party this unified and excited since the historic elections of 1994.
“I think the Republican base here in Iowa is very motivated,” Grubbs said. “Just like 1994, you’ll see a strong turnout for Republicans next year. I think there is a question of whether Democrats will be able to turn out their base next year. “
Shane Vander Hart agrees.
“Whether we can win back the Iowa House or Senate, I don’t know,” said Vander Hart, a conservative blogger and member of the Polk County Republican Central Committee. “But we will make some gains, and Gov. Culver is definitely in trouble. If I were a Democrat I don’t think I’d be really comfortable right now.”
But using 1994 as an example cuts both ways, Grubbs said.
Nationally, 1994 was the year of the Republican Revolution. The party gained a majority of seats in the U.S. House for the first time since 1954 and in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1986. The party also had a net gain of 12 governorships.
In Iowa, Republicans went from 51 seats in the Iowa House to 64 seats, “the most that I think has been picked up in 30 years,” Grubbs said.
“In the [state] Senate, Republicans picked up zero seats,” he said. “We started with 22 and ended with 22.”
The lesson, he said, is that even in a good year you still have to run good, solid campaigns. Even when a wave of political momentum sweeps the nation, state races usually only get a two to four point bump, he said.
“So, if you give every Republican in the state an additional four points, all those close districts flip to the Republicans,” Grubbs said. “But if you’re losing by 10 points, getting four points isn’t going to make a difference. “
So even with trends pointing in their favor, Republican have to focus on getting their message out, recruiting quality candidates, raising money and running good campaigns, he said.
Activists rallied at the state capitol in August as part of nationwide tea party protests (file photo).
“For the most part, these are people who have never been active in politics before,” Rhodes said. “So while I know they will have an impact it’s hard to say what that could be.”
On most issues, tea party activists tend to agree with the GOP, Rhodes said. But the movement has no formal ties to either party, and in fact emerged due to frustration with both Democrats and Republicans.
“I know of a few people who came from the tea parties and are now running as Republicans,” Rhodes said. “I know quite a few who are running as independents. I think more than anything you’ll see candidates forced to discuss our issues and unable to get a pass on them.”
The GOP’s recent electoral problems have more to do with “discontent with the Republican Party than anything else,” Vander Hart said. Even though Democrats enjoy a sizable voter registration lead in Iowa, recent polling shows most voters are more moderate to conservative, he said.
“A lot of those folks stayed home on Election Day or supported Democrats because they were sick of the direction the Republican Party was taking,” Vander Hart said. “I think the key to 2010 is Republicans staying true to conservative values.”
To be successful in 2010, Grubbs said the GOP must define itself as an alternative to the Democrats.
“Republicans have to change the way the average voter sees our party,” Grubbs said. “That means differentiating ourselves on issues like marriage, taxes, education, job creation. The Republican Party has to define itself as a party that is an alternative to the big-government path we’re on now.”
Grubbs said in a strong year, a party can typically expect to increase their numbers 10 percent. If that prediction holds true, Democrats would still control both the House and Senate.
Follow Jason Hancock on Twitter
Do you know where to vote on Election Day? Do you know what to bring with you? Get comprehensive voter information for your state here.
Sign up for our email newsletter