ANALYSIS: Has Fallon Found a Foothold?

Former State Rep. Ed Fallon has struggled to gain traction in his primary challenge against incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell. Save for a minor campaign finance scandal, he has generated little news. His criticisms of Boswell have been the same for several years, and his policy proposals were generally predictable to anyone who has observed Fallon’s career. Could an endorsement from the largest newspaper in the state turn the tides?Unlike the 2006 gubernatorial primary, when Fallon outperformed expectations by achieving a close third-place finish — and a victory among 3rd District voters — this year’s primary brought scrutiny to Fallon’s own record. With only two candidates on the ballot, Fallon could no longer fly under the political radar of his well-funded opposition.

The perennial gadfly has raised an impressive amount of money this year, considering he is challenging an incumbent congressman, but most of the nearly $250,000 his campaign has raised is already spent. The campaign’s overhead has been high: With more than 10 employees, payroll has been its biggest expenditure. The campaign has also spent more on printing its glossy, full-color brochures than it probably should have, considering it has not yet sent out districtwide direct mail.

Boswell used his financial advantage early, defining Fallon negatively in mailings before Fallon had a chance to define himself. Polling of the race has been sparse, but it appears that Boswell has enough of a margin for victory that even a low turnout election, in which Fallon’s enthusiastic supporters turn out in much higher numbers than Boswell’s, is not much of a threat to his claim to the Democratic nomination.

But the Des Moines Register, the largest newspaper in the district and the state, endorsed Fallon Tuesday, giving him what might be his last chance for a foothold in advance of next week’s election. Readers and contributors at the blog OpenLeft are considering a final fundraiser for Fallon, which could bring in as much as $25,000. Fallon’s offline fundraising might also be expected to pick up amid the good news.

But money is only useful to a campaign if it comes in early enough to be spent. Fallon’s attempts to earn free media attention have largely failed, because he has said little on the campaign trail that surprised anyone. His attacks on Boswell surround issues that were so thoroughly litigated by presidential candidates during the caucuses that they are hardly news anymore, and Iowa’s entire Democratic establishment has worked hard to drown out his message. To make matters worse for Fallon, Boswell has actually shifted to the left over the past year, diffusing some potential attacks.

Boswell is already on the air, and he has enough money to increase his ad buy over the next seven days. Fallon does not yet appear to have made a media buy, although his campaign did not immediately respond to a request for information about their media strategy.  A report filed with the Federal Election Commission indicates that Fallon paid about $5,000 to produce three TV ads, but with only roughly $30,000 on hand as of May 14, it is not clear that his campaign will be able to run them much.

A last-minute fundraising blitz spurred by the Register’s endorsement may be Fallon’s best shot at overcoming what appears to be an insurmountable Boswell lead. Fallon’s focus on field organizing has forced him to make a costly investment, and it will only pay dividends if his energetic staff can identify supporters to bring to the polls.

Battles aren’t just fought on the ground. A week away from election day, trailing two to one in the polls, Fallon’s ground game needs air support. His long-shot candidacy depends on how much money he raises in the next 24 to 48 hours and how much media he can buy with it.