As expected, political columnists and Republican leaders are taking shots at Gov. Chet Culver today for the 10 percent, across-the-board budget cut he ordered yesterday.
But for all the bellyaching, it’s important to remember that the political implications of slashing state spending aren’t really so bad.
Right now, critics are arguing that the cuts were only necessary because Culver and Democratic leaders in the legislature spent too much in their Fiscal Year 2010 budget. But on Election Day next year, voters who don’t pay as much attention to the barrage of press releases Republicans send out at the end of every legislative session bemoaning increases in spending won’t see it that way.
Here’s how Democrats will tell the story on the campaign trail: Democratic leaders passed a budget at the end of the 2009 legislative session that ended up being too big, based on estimates that were released half a year later. Once the lowered estimates were released in October, Culver took bold action within 24 hours, reducing state spending by 10 percentage points across the board. He rooted out unnecessary spending and forced all of state government to tighten its belt in the midst of a global economic recession that wasn’t Iowa’s fault.
In 12 months, I won’t be surprised to see Culver campaign ads actually touting this move to win the support of fiscal conservatives. The obvious contrast is that, faced with a similar situation, former Gov. Terry Branstad raised taxes — something Culver has vowed to avoid at all costs.
If Culver’s budget cut does continue to hurt him next year, it will not be among independents and Republicans, it will be among state employee unions like AFSCME and ISEA. And, despite the unions’ problems with the Culver administration over the past few years, they seem to be on board with this round of budget cuts already based on their public statements.
Frankly, it’s hard to see how budget cuts hurt Culver in 2010. If they have any impact at all, it will be a net positive.