Stephen Burgmeier and Curt Hanson have both released television advertisements in the race to replace Democratic state Rep. John Whitaker in next month’s special election, and they may give us some indication of where the race stands.

Burgmeier’s ad begins with messaging that seems to come straight from the Iowans for Tax Relief playbook: a cartoonish Gov. Chet Culver is peeking out of the statehouse, and red ink (which looks a little like blood) gushes out of the windows around him. Elderly Iowans then glare into the camera, admonishing elected officials and warning voters of the perils of Keynesian economics. The cuts between shots are rough and slightly reminiscent of a horror flick, and the announcer never mentions Hanson’s name.

Hanson’s ad was fashioned as a response to Burgmeier’s based on opposition research that his campaign first dropped here. It attacks Burgmeier on relatively standard points that one could make about most elected officials: voting to raise taxes, voting to raise his own salary, etc.

After the attacks, both ads switch to rainbows-and-butterflies mode, featuring cheerful announcers, saccharine background tunes, and lots of name repetition.

The ads are below, followed by an in-depth tea-leaf examination.

Stephen Burgmeier’s ad:

Curt Hanson’s ad:

Based on the ads, there’s a lot to speculate about. Here are some of my guesses about what’s going on in House District 90:

  • Burgmeier, an elected Jefferson County supervisor, probably has the edge when it comes to name recognition. But in a generic matchup, my bet is that an unnamed Democrat defeats an unnamed Republican by a slight margin. Burgmeier probably outperforms the generic Republican by a few points — perhaps enough to close the gap — but those numbers are soft because Hanson is not known well enough yet. As voters learn who Hanson is, the numbers could shift quickly — unless the ad succeeds in changing the generic ballot numbers first.
  • Hanson, a retired schoolteacher, is probably pretty well-liked wherever voters know him, and he doesn’t have a record to attack, so the Burgmeier campaign decided their best bet was to attack Democrats that nobody in the district knows personally. That has the added benefit of not boosting Hanson’s name recognition, since the ad never mentions his name. Burgmeier may also hope that this strategy will insulate him from the negative reactions that attack ads tend to elicit (I’m not sure that’ll work).
  • Hanson’s ad names Burgmeier in it, so he must not be worried about increasing the Republican’s name recognition. (That probably means Burgmeier is already better known.)
  • Hanson’s ad was pretty clearly a low-budget rush job. It features one announcer and only still photos with stock video. It’s a safe bet that it wasn’t the ad the campaign wanted to use to introduce Hanson, but they also did not want to leave Burgmeier’s negative spot up without any response. Expect a more polished, positive Hanson ad soon, assuming he doesn’t encounter any more surprises.
  • Burgmeier probably already has a positive ad of his own in the can. While the ad-makers were in town to shoot footage of the elderly voters who appear in the current ad, it’s safe to assume that they got footage of their candidate talking to the camera for future use. If they didn’t, then they were wasting resources.
  • Burgmeier wants to drive down turnout. Negative ads, especially cartoonish ones, do more to suppress votes than to persuade voters.
  • Interestingly, both Burgmeier and Hanson are attacking from the right: Burgmeier focuses on debt, and Hanson focuses on tax hikes and pay raises. That probably means Burgmeier is worried that his base isn’t riled up enough, and Hanson is doing his best to keep Burgmeier’s base from getting any more riled than they already are. In other words, right now, both sides are battling to influence GOP turnout.
  • So far, both sides are sticking to the formula, fitting comfortably inside the box. We’ve pretty much seen both of these ads before. And if you watch closely, you will notice that both ads switch from negative to positive at exactly the same moment, as if a one-second variation in one direction or the other would swing the election.

Yes, I just wrote 800 words about two 30-second television ads, which means I should probably issue a warning: Almost everything I’ve said here is speculation. I’m assuming, among other things, that both campaigns are making rational decisions based on complete, accurate information. As anybody who has ever been involved in a campaign knows, that’s not always the way it works.

(I’m also assuming that the ads are both running on television, which is somewhat difficult to verify at this moment.) I have been able to confirm that both ads are airing on TV.

Update: Some alternate scenarios have occurred to me since this post was published:

  • Burgmeier’s name recognition may be strong among Republicans in Jefferson County but weak among Republicans elsewhere. If that is the case, his ad should be helpful for catching Wapello and Van Buren County conservatives’ attention and then beating them over the head with Burgmeier’s name until they can’t forget it.
  • The compressed timetable of a special election like this one may have necessitated the 30-second, negative-then-positive format, so perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into it.