GOP establishment wonders about meaning of Huckabee win

[Analysis] Although much has been made about the big increase in the number of Democrats who attended the Iowa Caucus on Thursday, Republicans were also surprised by the turnout.

Two months ago, a Mitt Romney victory in Iowa looked to be as close to a slam dunk as anything in politics. Romney held a big lead in most polls, got a bump from his strong win at the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames and had assembled an unparalleled team of political veterans to run his campaign.

But Thursday night’s victory by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has sent a message to the party leadership that Republican voters in the state want change in Washington, and probably in Des Moines, too.

Many Republican leaders are now questioning what kind of impact the results will have on party affairs in the months to come. Some Republicans are already upset with the sway the Romney forces had on internal affairs in the state party in the months leading up to the caucus.

Huckabee’s rise in the polls began about the time that the GOP was finalizing plans for a televised debate, co-sponsored by Fox News, with an audience of party faithful from all 99 counties. The Romney forces were beginning to notice that Huckabee’s surge could be tied in part to consistently strong performances in each of the preceding debates, which may or may not have been why their candidate withdrew, citing scheduling conflicts.But the real drama occurred when the state party decided to cancel the debate altogether. What sense is there to hold a debate without the front-runner? they reasoned. When party strategist Chuck Laudner blamed the cancellation on Romney, Romney’s well-placed Iowa staff complained loudly about the inference. State Party Chairman Ray Hoffmann issued a press release the next day stating that Romney wasn’t to blame for the cancellation of the debate.

Party insiders say that Hoffmann is likely serving his last term as head of the Iowa GOP. Currently, Polk County Chair Ted Sporer is overseeing many of the day-to-day operations. But Sporer is said to be reluctant to divide the party with a fight and has reportedly encouraged members of the central committee to let Hoffmann finish out his term.

Hoffmann also has fans among the newly energized evangelical base, including Huckabee state chairman Bob Vander Plaats. It was Hoffmann who brokered a deal between Vander Plaats and Jim Nussle in 2006 that resulted in Vander Plaats dropping out of the governor’s race and becoming the party’s lieutenant governor candidate.

The bigger question is how Huckabee’s win will shape the party agenda in coming years, especially with the 2008 legislative session right around the corner. Social conservatives naturally hope to reap the rewards of backing Huckabee by placing issues such as gay marriage on the legislative agenda. After all, a handful of Republican legislators pointed out to me, the presidential candidates who finished in the top tier all expressed support for a marriage amendment.

But with the Democrats controlling both the Legislature and the governor’s office and with mid-term elections approaching, Republicans are wary about their legislative priorities. In fact, some Republican legislators are even suggesting that the party should moderate its position on large-scale, or so-called “factory,” farms to allow some sort of control over odor and siting.

One party official expressed disgust that the Democrats have been able to claim all the credit for the booming ethanol industry in the state, growth that has come about as much because of the Republican-supported war in the Middle East as any other factor. “And we’re left as the champion of the livestock industry,” he told me.

But Republicans should also be energized by the increased number of first-time voters who showed up to caucus on Thursday night. The GOP, I was reminded, is not precluded from changing its course, either.

If one thing is certain from the surveys of voters conducted on Thursday night, it’s that the Republican Party of Iowa isn’t as easy to pigeonhole as some pundits might suggest.

While Huckabee’s largest constituency of Iowa support came from evangelicals, his supporters also included people who are tired of politics-as-usual as defined by Washington’s chattering class. Most telling, perhaps, is that he received overwhelming support from Republicans who live in households with annual incomes of less than $100,000 a year while a majority of Romney’s support comes from households with annual incomes of more than $100,000 a year.

Romney’s campaign knew going into the election that they had a base of support among more affluent Republicans. In fact, it’s one reason they listed for locating their state headquarters in Urbandale, a stone’s throw from Dallas County, while most of the other Republican campaigns made do with low-rent offices in Des Moines.

According to entrance polls, Huckabee was the choice of 29 percent of men and 40 percent of women. About 65,000 Republican voters described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians and 46 percent of them voted for Huckabee, followed by 19 percent for Romney, 11 percent for Fred Thompson and 10 percent for both John McCain and Ron Paul.

Romney was the top vote-getter among the 45,000 Republican voters who said they are not evangelicals, drawing about 33 percent of those voters.

Nearly half the votes recorded in the Republican caucus were cast in eastern Iowa and Huckabee captured 30 percent of them. He received 35 percent of votes in western Iowa and 38 percent of the votes cast in central Iowa.

Mike Huckabee finished first or second in every Iowa county except Dubuque, where he finished third.

In many of the counties where Huckabee finished first, Romney battled with either John McCain or Fred Thompson for second place. Huckabee was the clear choice in most every county in the state.

Thompson finished second in Hancock, Butler, Sac, Hamilton, Hardin, Guthrie, Adair, Mahaska, Lucas, Monroe and Appanoose counties. A look at his campaign schedule over the last three months shows that he did best in the counties where he made appearances, a testament to the importance of retail politics over flashy campaign ads.

McCain finished second in Lyon, Sioux, Dickinson, Worth, Cerro Gordo, Mitchell and Dubuque counties.

Ron Paul finished second in Osceola, Pocahontas, Davis and Van Buren counties.