I've contacted just about all of the 175 people who showed up to caucus in my precinct in 2004. Of course, a few had died or moved away since then. A few more won't be able to attend this year because they'll be out of town or whatever. But there are also people who didn't attend in 2004 for flukey reasons (foot surgery, out of town), who normally go to the caucuses and will be there this year.

I would say that at least 140 to 150 of the people who attended our caucus in 2004 will be there on Thursday night.

If we are to believe the DMR, 60 percent of caucus-goers will be first-timers. That means that either a lot of regulars are lying when they say they'll show up, or the total turnout will shatter the record. We'd have to have over 300 people in the room to have 60 percent of the caucus-goers be there for the first time.

And that would suggest a statewide turnout of way more than 150,000.

I am not buying it.

We had 293 people in my precinct caucus on Thursday night. I still can't believe it.

If he can win in Iowa and do well in New Hampshire with Independent support, Obama will have earned the opportunity for a final appeal to Democrats. As he does so, he will undoubtedly tout his then-proven ability to attract Independents and attract new voters into the process. That is why Clinton's status as frontrunner will be more vulnerable.

Carlos Men

If he can win in Iowa and do well in New Hampshire with Independent support, Obama will have earned the opportunity for a final appeal to Democrats. As he does so, he will undoubtedly tout his then-proven ability to attract Independents and attract new voters into the process. That is why Clinton’s status as frontrunner will be more vulnerable.

Carlos Men

I’ve contacted just about all of the 175 people who showed up to caucus in my precinct in 2004. Of course, a few had died or moved away since then. A few more won’t be able to attend this year because they’ll be out of town or whatever. But there are also people who didn’t attend in 2004 for flukey reasons (foot surgery, out of town), who normally go to the caucuses and will be there this year.

I would say that at least 140 to 150 of the people who attended our caucus in 2004 will be there on Thursday night.

If we are to believe the DMR, 60 percent of caucus-goers will be first-timers. That means that either a lot of regulars are lying when they say they’ll show up, or the total turnout will shatter the record. We’d have to have over 300 people in the room to have 60 percent of the caucus-goers be there for the first time.

And that would suggest a statewide turnout of way more than 150,000.

I am not buying it.

We had 293 people in my precinct caucus on Thursday night. I still can’t believe it.